Determinants of Currency crises in Emerging economies in 1996-2005 An Early Warning System Approach

... study aims to answer the following questions: What are the key determinants of currency crises in emerging economies in the period 1996-2005 in the light of early warning system approach? (especially, ... of 52 Chapter Theories of currency crises - A brief review of the literature In the literature of financial crises, there are banking crises, (sovereign) debt crisis and currency crises Banking ... J.B., 2004 An exegesis on currency and banking crises Journal ofEconomic Surveys 18, 293320 Bussiere, M., Fratzscher, M., 2002 Towards a New Early Warning System of Financial Crises ECB Working Paper...

ito and hashimoto-high-frequency contagion of currency crises in asia

... effect to Argentina was also avoided in case of financial crisis of Brazil in 1998-1999 What was striking in case of Asia was (1) crises to be contemporaneous in time, and Short-term interest rate ... decline in the stock prices in the region In Korea, the decline of stock price was temporarily interrupted in the first half of the year but continued in the second half in the wake of banking ... stock price decline originated mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines The rate of decline and the frequency of large decline have been moderated since December 1998 In wake of crisis, market...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 1 ppt

... ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com Table 1. 1 Emerging Asia: real GDP growth forecasts, 19 96-98 19 96 Country Indonesia Thailand South ... 1. 2 Rating agencies’ performance before the Asian crisis: Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s long-term debt ratings,a 19 96-97 15 January 19 96 Rating | http://www.iie.com Moody’s foreign currency debt ... years In emerging Asia, consensus forecasts for 19 98 growth issued just before the crisis (that is, in May-June 19 97) generally stood in the to percent range As indicated in table 1. 1, these forecasts...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 2 potx

... liberalization and its attendant credit booms 12 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com forerun banking crises in Japan, in several Scandinavian countries, ... weak and when an extensive For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel (1996a, 1996b), Goldstein and Turner (1996), Honohan (1995), and Sundararajan and ... Leiderman and Thorne (1996) and Calvo and Goldstein (1996) for an analysis of the Mexican crisis These alternative explanations of the Asian crisis are discussed in BIS (1998), Corsetti, Pesenti, and...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 3 pot

... 1-month change Semiannual change Annual growth rate Level Level Level Level Level Level Level Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Semiannual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual ... ‘‘predicting’’ financial crises Specifically, we examine the performance of the Institutional Investor and Moody’s ratings As noted, in most cases we focus on 12-month changes in the variables This transformation ... nature of banking crises and the high incidence of denial by both bankers and policymakers that there are problems in the banking sector motivate the more forgiving signaling window for banking crises...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 4 pot

... an P(C) (1998) improvement) P(C͉S) 0.35 52 24. 0 14. 1 0 .46 0 .46 0. 54 0.68 0.68 0.73 76 63 90 79 96 100 23 .4 18.3 17.3 14. 3 16.8 15.6 11.2 9.0 7.2 4. 7 4. 2 3.7 0 ‫1ם‬ ‫1מ‬ 0.73 0. 84 0.88 64 72 44 ... Bank deposits 0.22 0.32 0 .46 0.51 0.51 0.57 0.57 58 Difference in Ranking rank P(C͉S)‫ ؁‬in K & R (‫ ם‬denotes an P(C͉S) P(C) (1999) improvement) 66 80 75 71 57 62.1 46 .0 47 .6 42 .4 42.3 43 .0 40 .1 ... 1.05 24 15.6 ‫6.0מ‬ General government consumption/ GDP 1 .44 15 10.0 ‫8.3מ‬ Indicator The Annual Indicators: What Works? Tables 3.3 and 3 .4 present evidence on the performance of eight annual...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 5 doc

... Uruguay, and Venezuela An unbalanced panel, in this case, refers to the fact that we not have the same number of observations for all the countries 46 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for ... consistent with other 48 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com research on ratings performance Cantor and Packer (1996b), for example, provide ... Do Financial Markets Anticipate Crises? The empirical tests presented here on sovereign credit ratings and financial crises need to be supplemented with tests on the ratings and larger 52 ASSESSING...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 6 ppt

... signaling for the 20 emerging 62 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com Table 5 .6 Vulnerability to financial crises in emerging markets: alternative ... 44 56 11 44 44 44 33 22 33 11 33 56 44 33 11 22 Rank Average of ‘‘weighted’’ signals Rank 3 2 3 6. 69 6. 94 6. 82 5.74 11.23 16. 33 6. 42 14.21 7.93 8.34 10.10 4.08 12. 96 2.71 14 .63 14. 56 13. 36 8.04 ... Korea* Thailand* Turkey Uruguay Venezuela Rank Weighted signals Rank 5.41 6. 59 7.57 5.90 10.59 15.42 6. 02 14.27 7.54 6. 30 12. 46 2.82 2.82 14.40 16. 52 14.57 14 .63 8.21 4.40 5.28 16 12 10 15 14...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 7 pdf

... bilateral and third-party) but emphasize financial sector links In an early paper on the subject, Frankel and Schmukler (1996) find evidence of contagion in emerging market mutual funds Trade and Financial ... and the economy 73 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com Table 6.1 Crises that showed few signals, 1 970 - 97 Type of crisis and sample Banking, 1 970 -95 Currency, 1 970 -95 Banking, ... which crises probabilities increased for other emerging markets following the Mexican crisis of 1994 and the Asian crisis of 19 97, owing to trade and financial links Most of the theoretical work...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 8 docx

... the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) crisis and the strong growth performance of the Australian economy in 19 98 coincident with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar For a comparison ... Thailand Turkey Uruguay Venezuela Thai crisis (July 1997) Brazilian crisis (January 1999) 16.65 18. 4 12.5 0 0 n.a 2.57 14. 08 0 0 0 12.5 0 0 0 16.65 28. 33 0 4.32 26. 58 0 n.a 0 29.15 n.a 26. 58 15 .83 ... comparison of the recent crises with the historic norm, see Kaminsky and Reinhart (19 98) 88 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com ...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 9 ppsx

... periods: an 18-month period running from the beginning of 199 6 to the end of June 199 7 (just before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis) and a 24-month period running from January 199 6 to ... order) for the 199 6 to mid- 199 7 period were as follows: South Africa, Czech Republic, Thailand, South Korea, and the Philippines (table 8.2) For the somewhat longer 199 6 to end of December 199 7 period, ... severity 98 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com Table 8.2 Country rankings of vulnerability to currency crises for two periodsa January 199 6-June...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 10 pptx

... (1998c), and Wyplosz (1997, 1998) 104 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com noncrisis countries (particularly Argentina and Mexico) and the Asian ... currency and banking crises coincide, the postcrisis performance would show up in both the averages for currency and banking crises See chapter for details SUMMARY OF RESULTS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 107 ... Detragiache (1998), who introduce law enforce¨¸ ment and deposit-insurance variables into their banking crisis model 108 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com...

Tài liệu Determinants of Healthy Eating in Community-dwelling Elderly People pdf

... determinants of diet in elderly, factors influencing diet in elderly, determinants of nutrition status in elderly, determinants of food choice (intake/consumption/habits/practices) in older people, ... discretion of the authors Determinants of healthy eating in older people Individual Determinants of Healthy Eating Individual components motivating dietary practices include age, sex, education, ... foster healthy eating However, there is a startling paucity of research in this area, and this is particularly evident in Canada VOLUME 96, SUPPLEMENT HEALTHY EATING IN COMMUNITY-DWELLING ELDERLY PEOPLE...

Determinants of male involvement in maternal and child health services in sub-Saharan Africa: a review potx

... Determinants of male involvement in maternal and child health services in sub-Saharan Africa: a review John Ditekemena1* * Corresponding author Email: Jditekemena@pedaids.org Olivier ... Byamugisha R, Astrom AN, Ndeezi G, Karamagi CA, Tylleskar T, Tumwine JK: Male partner antenatal attendance and HIV testing in eastern Uganda: a randomized facilitybased intervention trial J Int ... survey and clinical data Lancet 2008, 371:2183–2191 Matovu JK, Makumbi FE: Expanding access to voluntary HIV counselling and testing in sub-Saharan Africa: alternative approaches for improving uptake,...

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