... shows thatthecostofcapitalofthe firm depends on four factors: the risk free rate, the aggregate risk tolerance ofthe market, the expected cash flow ofthe firm, and the covariance ofthe ... models of asset pricing, the expected rate of return on a firm j’s stock is the rate, Rj, that equates the stock price at the beginning ofthe period, Pj, to the cash flow at the end ofthe ... assume that, to align the interests of the manager with thatof investors, the manager maximizes share price. That is, the manager chooses the investment level to maximize the beginning -of -the- period...
... impact ofthe AAER. If the restatement occurs in conjunction with, or following, the AAER issuance, it likely does not impact the change in costof equity capital surrounding the issuance ofthe ... determine the need to censure the auditor via additional litigation.13 Each of these situations adds a level of severity to the AAER, increasing the potential impact on the firm’s costof equity capital. ... hypothesis, stated in alternative form, examines this role of severity in determining the change in costof equity capital: H3: The increase in costof equity capital will be greater when the...
... the collapse of Japan Inc.after the stock market crash of 1990, the Asian crisis ofthe mid-1990s, the fabulous technology boom/bust cycle at the turn ofthe millen-nium, and the unprecedented ... a consequence they led their creators to assert, incor-rectly, that there was no theoretical justification for the visible hand of government to come to the rescue of banks and other financialinstitutions.Finally, ... a piece ofthe world’s bankingsystem. The risk is that this becomes the general state of affairs. Ibelieve that a move toward the socialization of investment—again, a10 • THECOST OF CAPITALISMHow...
... Novem-ber of 2008, on the heels of widespread evidence of economic retreat.At that time the NBER, theof cial arbiter, also declared that the United States was in recession. It set the start ... excessiveuses of risk and concentration of investment. And the interplay of thesetwo flaws explains each ofthe major economic declines ofthe past25 years.In summation, the savvy analyst must be of two ... indeedshocked by the events of 2008. Shock in hand, they can argue that their sense ofthe way the world works is intact. Listen to speechesfrom representatives ofthe European Central Bank, the ECB,...
... events of 9/11. That tragedywas the worst moment in the lives of most Americans of my genera-tion. But the economic retrenchment that gripped the country had The Brave-New-World Boom Goes Bust: The ... bubble ofthe proportions of Japanin the 1980s or the technology bubble in the United States in the 1990s. Indeed, in this case you could argue thatthe bust was as muchan example of excess as the ... and the economy.CASH, AT LONG, LONG LAST, IS TRASHEquity ownership, or a piece ofthe action, is the essence ofthe differencebetween capitalist-based economies and the planned economies of the Soviet...
... important, the fact thatthe Fed funds rate had been lifted over the period was irrel-evant to borrowers in business. Their borrowing costs were lower, and the global boom was proof positive that they ... recommend thatthe ECB be considered for the Andrew Mellon Policy Blunder ofthe Century Award. Mellon, incharge ofthe U.S. Federal Reserve in the 1930s, actually tightenedinterest rates in the ... Andpowerful mathematical models inputted that “truth.” The fact that many mortgage companies that issued credit to homebuyers were not in the business of holding the mortgages createdmoral hazard. The...
... rejected the neoclassical synthesis, arguing that much ofthe genius of Keynes was lost in the attempt to preserve the lion’s share ofthe classical economic tradition. To grossly oversimplify, the ... protecting the thousands of credit links that Bear152 • THECOST OF CAPITALISMFans ofthe book Freakonomics will find nothing unsettling about the criticisms that follow in this chapter. That fantastically ... rise in gasoline prices is the subject of micro theory. What consumers, taken together, might do, and what that would mean for the overall economy, is the subject of macrotheory.1In this chapter...
... brain skills. Looking through the details ofthe question to get to an overarching sense ofthe issue isat the heart of right brain thinking.Out ofthe Mouths of Babes The best right brain thinking ... avoided. That, of course, puts me at odds with many ofthe most vociferous fans of Hy Minsky. What follows is a brief sketch ofthe experiences that led me to the prejudices that I hold. was that ... itwas their focus on the speculative nature of long-term expectations.As Keynes put it:. . . the orthodox theory assumes that we have a knowledge of the future of a kind quite different from that...
... part ofthe mainstream formulation. The simpletruth is that theorists owe this to the policy-making world. The soonerthey deliver it, the better.208 • THECOST OF CAPITALISMCushioning the ... declare thatthe analysis theyconfront is straightforward and that they are comfortable with the paperbeing issued. Importantly, central bankers will need to assure the world of investors that they ... leading up to the crisis of 2008, many champions of free market capitalism warned about the tenuous nature ofthe globalcredit markets. Warren Buffett, the sage of Omaha, labeled the mar-kets...
... rationally.In summation, the events of 2008 make clear that economic policyand the theories that buttress policy are in need of a new paradigm.While we celebrate the virtues of capitalism, we need ... incor-rectly, that there was no theoretical justification for the visible hand of government to come to the rescue of banks and other financialinstitutions.Finally, the marginalization of Minsky ... economists joined together in a cele-bration ofthe Goldilocks economy. With the dismal record of the 1970s as their point of comparison, mainstream analysts focused on the not-too-hot, not-too-cold...
... The value of what they owe—their liabilities—is always supposed to be lowerthan the value of what is owed to them—their assets. When theysubtract their liabilities from their assets, the remainder ... $588,000, and the house is worth $538,000. If lots of home loans go the way of Hanna’s loan, then the total value ofthe bank’s assets falls below the total value of its loans to other people—its ... fullness of time we learned that the Financial Markets as a Source of Instability • 53Late in the process, countries in the Soviet Bloc were completely out of touch with the desires of their citizenries....
... Novem-ber of 2008, on the heels of widespread evidence of economic retreat.At that time the NBER, theof cial arbiter, also declared that the United States was in recession. It set the start ... excessiveuses of risk and concentration of investment. And the interplay of thesetwo flaws explains each ofthe major economic declines ofthe past25 years.In summation, the savvy analyst must be of two ... Octo-ber 2008 that asset markets needed to be added to the Fed’s list of poten-tially destabilizing excesses. Why? Sadly, it was not the force of ideas that carried the day. It was the end ofthe Great...
... bubble!”I looked at the others; they looked down at their shoes. And for the remainder ofthe two hours the group exchanged pleasantries. In the end the group decided thatthe big risk going forward, ... events of 9/11. That tragedywas the worst moment in the lives of most Americans of my genera-tion. But the economic retrenchment that gripped the country had The Brave-New-World Boom Goes Bust: The ... so, that a peculiarly Asian form of technological100 • THECOST OF CAPITALISM of all the land in the state of California! The shares of Japanese car mak-ers reached values that suggested these...
... volunteered that I thought that by the end ofthe year the funds rate would fall to 4 percent. Quite a few e-mails greeted me after the show, most of them critical, and one accused me of excessive use of hallucinogenic ... gripped the United States and then became aworld recession. The dynamics that precipitated the U.S. recession, the global capital markets crisis, and the worldwide downturn, are the subject ofthe ... even the most creative mortgage providers to lift their teaserrates thecostof money forced them to make the adjustment. 140 • THECOST OF CAPITALISMIn the United States, a vocal group of...
... CENTURYrecognized the severity ofthe crisis that would confront them if theypermitted the bankruptcy of a major financial institution. The Treasury justified its inaction by arguing that, unlike the Bearsituation, ... and a writer ofthe insurance. If things go as planned, the buyerpays the insurer the premium. If things go awry, the insurer pays the buyer. Either way, one ofthe two parties gets the money promised ... capitalism that justify the visible hand of government intervention. • Both classical and Keynesian economists have to accept that these flaws arise in the world of finance, and that they reflect the uncertain...