... are
growingdark.Nowweseethatmanyof the verybrightest
lights inthe tunnelfinallyfeel the impactandalsobeginto
losetheirlight. The ownersof the businesses inthe tunnel
areseeingmuchoftheirwealthgraduallydrainaway.
The ... that the hopes of even the
remainingbrighter lights aregraduallyevaporatinginto the
newemptinessof the tunnel.
THE LIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 36
CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle ... our
DNAmoleculeandidentifyingeachgenetookatremend-
ousamountofcomputationalresources,andgridcompu-
tingplayedasignificantrole in this.
The geneticinformationobtainedthrough the project
isstored in databasesandcanbeaccessedbyscientistsand
researchersvia the Internet. The resultisafantasticsource
ofknowledgethatcontinuestobeanalyzedandwhichis
certain to result in innumerable future advances inthe
fieldsofgenetics,bio-engineeringandmedicine.
An especially interestingdevelopment inthe field of
gridcomputingis the ideathatunusedpoweronvirtually
anycomputerconnectedto the Internetcanbeintegrated
intoavoluntarygridanddeployedtosolvebigproblems.
Mostcomputers,iflefton,donothingatallduringlarge
blocksoftime,especiallyovernight. The ideatotiethese
computerstogetherbyhavingtheirownersdonateunused
computingpowerhassprungup in anumberofplaces.
Stanford...
... cash
drawer.
Ifyouwere in oneof the lanesfurtherout,however,
thingswerefarmoreinteresting.Yousealedyourmoney,
paperwork,checkbook,etc.intoaplasticcylinderandthen
dropped the cylinder into the providedopening. The cy-
linder then traveled through an underground tube—
propelled I think by some ... a security. They
could invertit,soyougainedif the securityfell in value.
Theycouldeventrytocapture the rewardifaninvestment
increased in value,buteliminate the riskifitwentdown—
oratleasttheythoughttheycould.
Ashousingpricescontinuedtoclimbduring the bub-
ble, ... and
computerfields, the paceofchangeisunprecedentedand
continuestodriverelentlesslytoward the totalelimination
ofjobs.Whatweareseeingisclearempiricalevidenceof
the geometricincrease inthe powerofcomputertechnol-
ogy.
Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lightsinthe
Tunnel
All the attentionbeingfocusedonnewjobsbeingcreated
bytechnologytendstodistractusfrom the realitythat the
bulkof the ...
... associated with this
process is in collecting, copying, collating and faxing in-
formation. The intellectualportionof the job—eitherap-
provingordenying the loan—isprobablyalreadyessential-
lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughout the economy,there
*
Formoreonroboticsanditspotentialimpactonemploymentand
on ... businesses
over the Internet.UsingXML, the computersatamanu-
facturingcompanycantalkdirectlyto the computersbe-
longingto the company’ssuppliers. The continuingdrive
towardpaperlessdocumentsandseamlesscommunication
islikelytoeliminatemanyofthesehumaninterfacejobs in
the comingyears.
The Next “Killer App”
Since the beginnings of the personal computer industry,
computerhardwaresaleshaveoftenbeendrivenbyapar-
ticularsoftwareapplicationsocompellingthatithasmoti-
vatedcustomerstopurchase the machinerequiredtorun
it.When the AppleIIwasintroduced in 1977,it ... different businesses
over the Internet.UsingXML, the computersatamanu-
facturingcompanycantalkdirectlyto the computersbe-
longingto the company’ssuppliers. The continuingdrive
towardpaperlessdocumentsandseamlesscommunication
islikelytoeliminatemanyofthesehumaninterfacejobs in
the comingyears.
The...
... thatsucha business modelcould be
sustained inthe longrunonlyifwages in Chinaremainextremelylow
indefinitely.Ifthatis the case,howwillChinasucceed in drivingdo-
mesticconsumptionandachievingamorebalancedeconomywhichis
lessdependentonexports?
Acceleration ... shouldersofAmericanandEuropeanconsumers.
Andaswehavenotedagainandagain in thisbook,those
Westernconsumersalldependonjobs.Ifautomationbe-
ginstodramaticallyimpactemployment in China,whileat
the sametimedemanddwindles inthe West—andcertain-
lyif the catastrophiceventdescribed at the beginning of
thischapteroccurs—thenthiseconomicperpetualmotion
machineisgoingtocollapse.
Givenallthis,whatcanwereallysayabout the future
ofChina?Nearlyafourthof the world’spopulationlives
in China;therefore,thereisnodoubtthatthiscountrywill
continuetohavesignificant,andperhapsincreasing,influ-
ence inthe decadestocome.However,simplyextrapolat-
ingcurrenttrendsisveryunlikelytogiveanaccuratepro-
jection.Chinaisgoingtobeheavilyimpactedbyaccelerat-
ing ... developed
nationshasresulted in amassiveandirreversibleelimina-
tionofjobs.
*
The realityisthat the manufacturingsectoris
following the samepath. In herbook,Rivolialsocitesevi-
denceshowingthatmanyof the jobslost inthe U.S.tex-
tileindustryare in factduetomachineautomationrather
thanglobalization,andthatChina, in spiteofitslowwage
*
...
... to
decline.Rememberthatwearetalkinghereaboutaverage
workers.Toget the graphabove,youmighttake the dis-
tributionofincomes inthe UnitedStatesandthenelimi-
nateboth the richestand the poorestpeople.Thengraph
the averageincomeof the remaining“typical”people (the
bulk ... capital intensive (the machinestheyemploywill
begintorunthemselves).Oncethishappens,theywillcol-
lectivelybegintopumpmorepurchasingpowerfrom the
riverthantheyreturntoit. The riverwillbegintorundry.
In the caseofareal-worldriver,wewouldneverad-
vocateallowingabusinessorindustrytopumpunlimited
quantitiesofwaterfrom the riverwithoutbearing the ap-
propriate ... $1,081,000
Canthisprocesscontinueforever?Aswesaw inthe
previous chapter, automation technology is likely to in-
creasinglyinvade the remaininglaborintensivesectorsof
the economy.Whenthishappens,whatindustrieswillbe
lefttoabsorball the dislocatedworkers?Lookat the table
above....
... The
lights rotate in colorasjobsaresharedamong the workers
firstaffectedbyautomation.
The green lights initiallyrepresentasmallminorityof
the lights within the tunnel. Most peoplecontinue to be
employed in traditionaljobs.Ifweweretowatch the ac-
tion inthe tunnelovertime,however,wewouldseethat
THE ... problem
andhavelinedupbehind the generalconceptofreform—
althoughnoconsensushasyetbeenreachedonasolution.
*
The taxcodecouldbeusedtoprovideanincentiveforparticipation
in ajobsharingscheme. Inthe previouschapterIsuggested the idea
of“progressive”deductionsforwagespaid. In asimilarfashion,high-
erdeductionscouldbeprovidedtobusinessesthatagreedtoincorpo-
ratejobsharingintotheirbusinessmodels.
THE LIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 188
CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
in sustainedconsumerspending,vibrantdemandfornew
products ... on
theirparticularinterestsandabilities,peoplepursuehigher
education,work inthe communityandmakechoicesthat
benefit the environmentwith the understandingthatdoing
thesethingswillleadtoahigherincomeandabetterstan-
THE LIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 180
CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle...
... and mine it very deeply, not
necessarily discovering every aspect of the domain
but requiring that the various aspects be
integrated with one another to produce a coherent
whole.
Even inthe ... officers represented in it. The
system merely made no distinction between "all" and
"any", and interpreted the final query to mean the
But, you are probably thinking, those examples ... and interaction in which the system acts
like a helpful, intelligent, knowledgeable
assistant. In this situation, the user carries on
a dialogue (perhaps using speech) using language in
exactly...
... bales puffed to the
loading gangways. There was the puffing and whistling of the donkey
engines as they hoisted into the big holds the goods intended for export.
At the side of the steamer were ... and then Tom, grasping
the steering wheel, turned on full power and jerked the releasing rope.
Over the ground shot thesky racer, quickly attaining speed until, with
a deft motion, the young inventor ... he finished, and leaving thesky racer inthe open space in front of
the shed, he went inthe house to wash up, for his face and hands were
begrimed with dirt and oil.
"But the machine's...