INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn Subject: BUAD555 Decision Science and Statistic for Managers Class: GaMBA01.C02 Student: Truong Minh Chien, ID # 113408 Final Individual Assessment TOPIC: APPLIED STATISTIC FOR BUSINESS AND ORGANIZATION INTRODUCTION – Background : Statistics in the business application is the performance of statistics probability theory to the realistic business environment in order to serve purposes such as collection - data processing, sample surveys, studies the relationship between phenomena, predict and help the CEO decision-making within the specific business scene As we all know in statistics business, it includes descriptive statistics and statistical inference Actually, in limited of this article, I only apply statistical inference to solve problems specific topic request - Purpose Applying statistical theory to solve exercises 2.2, 5.16 and 8.3 of the textbook Since then draw the lessons of experience and practical help for the operation of Son Trang Ly Limited Company - Progress This report is realized bases upon below steps : i Understand and gather information ii Calculated and solve the Regression Equation iii Applied Excel and SPSS version 17 iv Applied the Estimation Theory in Statistic v Draw the plots 1/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn APPLIED STATISTIC AND ESTIMATION THEORY FOR ORGANIZATION Execercise 2.2 The below information are data on the age of the patients visit the hospital A on 08/20/2008 32 45 53 60 79 73 73 53 61 48 51 49 62 72 37 70 38 66 52 33 78 45 65 47 64 47 61 75 57 64 Request : a Stem & Leaf display representing b Construct table of frequency distribution and cumulative percentage distribution c Draw the frequency plot d Comments on the age distribution of patients above Solve a Stem & Leaf display Frequency Stem & Leaf 2.0 23 2.0 78 6.0 557789 4.0 1233 1.0 6.0 011244 2.0 56 4.0 0233 3.0 589 Width of Stem : 10.00 Each Leaf includes : case(s) b Table of frequency and cumulative frequency Table Descriptive frequency, percentage table Age-grade Frequency Percentage (%) 30-35 6.67 35-40 6.67 40-45 0 45-50 20 50-55 13.33 55-60 3.33 60-65 20 65-70 6.67 70-75 13.33 75-80 10 Total 30 100 c Histogram, and other frequency plots Cumulative frequency 4 10 14 15 21 23 27 30 / Cumulative Percentage (%) 6.67 13.33 13.33 33.33 46.67 50 70 76.67 90 100 / 2/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn d Comments on the age distribution of patients From the above frequency graph (Frequency Histogram), we easily see the majority of patients visit the hospital A on 20/8/2008 are greater than 45 years of age and under 65 years old The amount of patients under 40 years old and is at least 65 years of patient accounting for a small amount Particularly of patients from 45 to 50 years old and the patients age 60 to 65 increased sharply higher It shows the hospital A on health care for middle-aged or older and retired people or those who were too old working age Basing oneself on above frequency histogram, we can imagine more valueadded services for Hospital A such as life insurance for elderly people or drugs on specific diseases of the elderly such as heart tonic, hypertension, diabetes doses drugs to increase market power or other drugs increases the digestibility of etc 3/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn Exercise 5.16 The consumer rate of a local product at district A is 60% After the marketing campaign believed that the rate has increased To test this idea, we randomly interviewed 400 people and has 250 consumers found that product category With the 0.05 significant make meaningful conclusions about the comments above Solve The rate of customer consumption of products before advertising campaign is: p0 = 60% = 0.6 The rate of customer consumption of products after the advertising campaign : p Set theory: H0 : p = p0 = 0.6 H1 : p ˃ p0 After implementation of advertising campaigns, the amount consumers are: p* = 250/400 = 0.625 = 62.5% From above equation : In other hand : Comments : Because that we accept the theory H0: p = p0 = 0.6, it means after the advertising campaign that the percentage of customers used the product is less than or equal before advertising campaign Thus, the advertising campaign is a failure in district A because after doing the advertisng campaign that the rate of customer consumption would not rise as expected and tends to decrease (significant at 5%) Exercise 8.3 The following data is the number of readers of a local newspaper (thousand person): Year : Readers : 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 53 65 74 85 92 105 120 128 144 158 179 195 Made a Least-Squares Trend Function and forecasts the total readers in 2008 and 2009 with 95% confident interval Solve Table Readers of the newspaper related to time Năm 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 t (time) y (x1000) 53 65 74 85 92 105 120 128 t.y 53 130 222 340 460 630 840 1024 t2 16 25 36 49 64 t2.y 53 260 666 1360 2300 3780 5880 8192 t3 27 64 125 216 343 512 t3.y 53 520 1998 5440 11500 22680 41160 65536 t4 16 81 256 625 1296 2401 4096 t4.y 53 1040 5994 21760 57500 136080 288120 524288 4/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total 10 11 12 78 144 158 179 195 1398 1296 1580 1969 2340 10884 81 100 121 144 650 11664 15800 21659 28080 99694 729 1000 1331 1728 474552 104976 158000 238249 336960 987072 6561 10000 14641 20736 60710 944784 1580000 2620739 4043520 10223878 I have graphs show audience of the newspaper in 12 years from 1996 to 2007 as follows: From table above, we calculate the means value of t and y as follows: As the graph represented by the function y t above, we easily see t and y is a linear relationship Applied Linear-Trend model for with variables y and t, we get : From above equation, we get : 5/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn (với n=12) From equation above, we can rewrite the regression Linear-trend model as below : Comment : annual average of the local newspaper has a constant readership of 34,818 people and tends to increase a fort of the year which is 12,566 people online Thus, each year the local newspaper have got over 12,566 more readers and a pretty big audience From regression equation above, we can forecasts the readers in year 2008 and year 2009 as : Comment : I predicted that the newspaper will have 198,182 readers in 2008 and 210,748 readers in 2009 Applied Excel 2007 for solving regression Linear-trend equation (set Data  Data Analysis  Regression  chọn Confidence Level = 95% to identify the confident interval of 95%) 6/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn As the Excel data presented above, by 2007 the linear regression equation is the audience of about 185.615 people, nearly 9.500 lower than the actual person Because this is a local newspaper within increasing readership about of 12.566 every year, so the error of the linear regression equation is too large for practica It does not satisfy the necessary elements and integrity of data As calculated in 2007, then perhaps the local newspaper can be a severe loss not fully meet the needs readers and customers will turn to the competitors of that paper to buy other newspapers Thus, local newspaper can lose audience and gradually narrow the market until the dissolution or closure Applied the ability to graph illustrating of the SPSS 17 that is one form of graphs showing the distribution of medical standards y by t: 7/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn From the graph above, we easily see that the Quadratic-Trend model which standard distribution approaches to y values From that view points, I concludes that distribution of is a Quadratic-Trend model 8/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn We have got equations (n=12) : From above equation as well as solution of SPSS 17, we can write the Quadratic-Trend equation as: Applied above equation to forecast the readers in three years 2007,2008 and 2009: Applied SPSS 17 we can get solotion as : 9/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn 10/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn Comments : easily see the trends on the quadratic distribution function that we obtain more accurate data on the audience in the local newspaper As the equation shows normal distribution, the newspaper audience has a 48,636 average each year and tended to increase more linearly 6,644 audiences and concurrently around of 456 extra readers In 2008, the number of newspaper readers can be achieved 231,028 readers and it will be 212,072 people in 2009 Conclusion of excercise 8.3 : The standard distribution is a Quadratic trend model as Instead of this , each year the local newspaper has a readership of an average 48,636 people and increased the annual premium 6644 readers within regular extra 456 people online 11/ 12 INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn REFERENCE TEXTBOOK: Lecture notes and articles of BUAD555 Decision Science & Statistic for Managers(Griggs University) Mark L.Berenson, David M Levine & Timothy C.Krehbiel, “Basic Business Statistic : Concepts and Applications” 11th edition, Prentice Hall, 2009, ISBN : 978-0-13-500936-9 Financial Bureau of Vietnam, “Manual of Accounting For Director and Accounting Manager In Enterprise”, Lao Dong – Xa Hoi, 2009, ISBN: 89-35206-50099-8 INFORMATION RESOURCE: South Branch Office of the Hanoi University of Technology Chula bookstore of Thailand Kingdom Phuong Nam Bookstore of Vietnam (PNC group) OTHER IMPORTANCE ARTICLES: Website of Vietnam Statistic Office: http://www.gso.gov.vn 12/ 12 ... table of frequency distribution and cumulative percentage distribution c Draw the frequency plot d Comments on the age distribution of patients above Solve a Stem & Leaf display Frequency Stem &... Each Leaf includes : case(s) b Table of frequency and cumulative frequency Table Descriptive frequency, percentage table Age-grade Frequency Percentage (%) 30-35 6.67 35-40 6.67 40-45 0 45-50... Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn d Comments on the age distribution of patients From the above frequency graph (Frequency Histogram), we easily see the majority of patients visit the hospital A on 20/8/2008