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Lecture Marketing metrics - Chapter 3: Market and sales forecast presentation of content: Competitiveness metrics, market projection. Invite you to reference.
9/18/2015 Chapter 3: Market & Sales Forecast Contents • Competitiveness metrics • Market projection Competitiveness 9/18/2015 Key metrics • Market share ◦ Revenue /unit market share ◦ Relative market share ◦ Market concentration • Penetration ◦ Market penetration ◦ Penetration share Market share • Purpose: key indicator of market competiveness • Market share: The percentage of a market accounted for by a specific entity Market share • 𝑼𝒏𝒊𝒕 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 % = 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 # 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 # • 𝑹𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒖𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 % = 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 ($) 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 ($) 9/18/2015 Market share • Cautions: ◦ Unit vs revenue ◦ Manufacturer’s warehouse vs sales to consumers ◦ Before or after promotion Relative market share • Purpose: to assess a firm’s or brand success and its position in the market • 𝑹𝒆𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 % = 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑 ′ 𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 ($,#) 𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑜𝑟 ′ 𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 ($,#) Market concentration • The degree to which a relative small number of firms accounts for a large proportion of the market • Also known as the concentration ratio • Usually calculated for the largest or firms in the market 9/18/2015 Penetration • Purpose: measure of brand or category popularity • Helping managers to decide strategy to increase sales by: ◦ Acquiring existing category users from competitors ◦ Expanding the total population of category users Penetration • 𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 % = • 𝑩𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 % = • 𝑷𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 % = 𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 () 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (#) 𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑 () 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (#) 𝐵𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (%) 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (%) Penetration • Cautions: ◦ Category time period • Data sources: ◦ Internal sources: ◦ Sales report ◦ External sources: ◦ Competitor study ◦ Commercial data ◦ Consumer survey 9/18/2015 Market projection Key metrics • Volume projection • Break-even sales Volume projection • Purpose: to ensure that marketing and sales objectives mesh with profit targets • Target volume: the volume of sales necessary to generate the profits specified in a company’s plans 9/18/2015 Volume projection • 𝑻𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒆𝒕 𝒗𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 # = 𝐹𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 $ +𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠($) 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡($) • 𝑻𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒆𝒕 𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒖𝒆 $ = 𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 # ∗ 𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 $ • 𝑻𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒆𝒕 𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒖𝒆 $ = 𝐹𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 $ +𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠($) 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛(%) Break-even sales • Purpose: to provide a rough indicator of the earnings impact of a marketing activity • Break-even occurs when the total contribution equals the fixed costs, profits and losses at this point equal zero • Break-even volume: the number of units that must be sold to cover fixed costs • Break-even revenue: the level of sales required to break even Break-even sales 𝐹𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 $ • 𝑩𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒌 − 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏 𝒗𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 # = 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 $ 𝐹𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 $ • 𝑩𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒌 − 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏 𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒖𝒆 $ = 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 % • 𝑩𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒌 − 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏 𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒖𝒆 $ = 𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘 − 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 # ∗ 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡($) ... +