1 INTRODUCTION The reason of selecting the thesis topic With the situation of rice in world food structure, rice production and export have significance for ensuring rice supply - demand stability in all conditions They contribute to the task of global food security, and give turnover to the nations However, in the context of deep and wide international economic integration, which main manifestations are bilateral, regional and multilateral trade relations Trade agreements are legal basis making rice export meet the specific content of origin, characteristics, quality, safe and sanitary products and environment etc Additionally, Vietnam’s rice to export are a symbol of gradually “lower-grade” than other agricultural exports; actuality of climate change requires farmers have restructured agriculture by reducing transplantation rice; the “fastidious” markets such as Japan, United State, Europe ect are tending to “denigrate” Vietnam’s rice but they are enthusiatic to buy Vietnamese fruit and vegetables at good price However, world rice demand has always been increasing, food security is still urgent issue for many countries in the world Vietnam’s rice to export is in context of countinuous fluctuation of domestic and foreign factors, in which trade agreements like “catalyst” requires rice sector to carefully consider in the orientation of rice export is suitable to international practices in the following time Based on these comments and in accord with specialistic economic history, PhD has worked on the thesis as toptic “Impacts of Trade Agreements on Vietnam’s rice export” Research objectives of the thesis 2.1 General objectives The thesis proposes new comprehention of Vietname’s rice export to adapt to impacts of trade agreements and threats in new international economic integration that are still relevant to inherent role of rice sector 2.2 Specific objectives The first, to systematise some theoretical issues on impacts of trade agreements on rice export; summarize the experience of rice export of several countries under impacts of trade agreements, thence drawing lessons for Vietnam The second, overview of some trade agreements impacting on Vietnam’s rice export The third, analysis of the real situation of Vietnam’s rice export under impacts of trade agreements that Vietnam is a member The forth, to propose solutions and petitions to promote rice export in the direction of good adaptation to impacts of trade agreements Subjects and scope of the study * Research subjects - The contents of the trade agreements that Vietnam participates with relating to rice export; the reality of Vietnam's rice export to member and non-members countries with Vietnam in trade agreements; impacts of trade agreements that Vietnam has participated on Vietnam's rice export * Research scope Scope of content: The thesis examines the content and impacts of trade agreements affecting on Vietnam's rice export, including: AFTA; Bilateral trade agreements; Mixed Trade Agreements; and trade agreements have not yet validated, the trade agreement negotiated without contract and the agreements are under negotiation * Study area: The thesis focuses on the Vietnam’s rice export market with a large proportion * Time range: - The thesis generalizes the development of the rice sector (production and export) from the 80s of the 20th century until 2017, assesses the status of impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice export with the timelines of trade agreements in validity from 2000 to 2015 (the period since the entry into force of the Vietnam-US Bilateral Trade Agreement, opening the period of continuous Vietnamese accession entering into regional and world agreements) It has assessed the potential impact of trade agreements that are not valid or in negotiation between 2000 and 2016, updated information on rice export of the world in 2016 - 2017 - Solutions of the thesis on Vietnam's rice export under impacts of trade agreements towards 2030 Approach and Methodology 4.1 Approach Approach in the perspective of economic history and from the theory to the reality, considering changes to export rice under the impact of the trade agreements that Vietnam has signed in the temporal order 4.2 Methodology - Qualitative research Methodology: combining historical methods, logical methods, analytical methods based on statistical results, collating and comparing data and economic phenomena in rice export to clarify the change in rice export, both quantity and quality from time to time of the roadmap for the implementation of trade agreements - Experimental research Methodology: Applying the structural gravity model in international trade to study the events that occurred after the implementation of the trade agreement (post-period analysis) New contributions and limitations of the thesis 5.1 New contributions of the thesis * The thesis has theoretical contributions: - The thesis comprehensively analyzes the impact of bilateral, regional and mixed trade agreements on Vietnam’s rice export - The thesis deals with impacts of trade agreements on rice export in order to concretize each factor but not only economic or welfare aspects 3 * The thesis has practical significance.: - The thesis studied the topical issue because rice has been the main export products of Vietnam for a long time However, when Vietnam participates in trade agreements, rice export has been associated with many opportunities and new threats Hence, the rice needs to consistent with the trend of integration and the content of trade agreements - The thesis examines impacts of trade agreements for identifying suggestion to motivate rice export towards sustainable development, thus motivating the development of rural agriculture * The thesis contributes research methodology to analyze impacts of trade agreements on rice export in Vietnam through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative models (structural gravity model) 5.2 The limitations of the thesis Some factors that impact on rice export such as climate change, scale and price of rice export of competitors, unexpected and difficult to anticipate factors have not been put into the experimental model However, the thesis uses qualitative analysis of these factors not yet inserted in the model to make more comprehensive contributions Structure of the thesis Chapter 1: Overview of research on impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam’s rice export; Chapter 2: Theoretical fundament and international experience on adaptation to impacts of trade agreements on rice export; Chapter 3: Analyzing the current situation of impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam’s rice export; Chapter 4: Some solutions to enhance the adaptability of Vietnam’s rice export to impacts of the trade agreements by 2030 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ON IMPACTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS ON VIETNAM’S RICE EXPORT 1.1 Research on impacts of trade agreements on rice export in the process of international economic integration 1.1.1 Research on the benefits of exports and factors affecting exports Trade Theories in research by Do Duc Binh and Ngo Thi Tuyet Mai (2013) has indicated the mechanism and the reason that trade generates benefits for nations Research on factors influencing supply (production capacity), export demand (purchasing power) and factors that attract / hinder exports: Carrere (2006), Inmaculada and Felicitas (2003) , Sandberg (2004), Do Tri Thai (2006), Tu Thuy Anh and Dao Nguyen Thang (2008), Dao Ngoc Tien (2009), Bikker (2009), in which trade agreements are one of the influencing factors to export, not only directly but also indirectly through policies towards export 1.1.2 Research on impacts of trade agreements on export 1.1.2.1 Overview of theoretical research on impacts of trade agreements on countries in the world - Static impacts include "trade creation" and "trade diversion" (Viner, 1950; Krugman, 1993; Bhagwati and Panagariya, 1996; Krueger, 1999; Fukao et al., 2002)- Dynamic impacts have long-term effects on welfare, economic restructuring, industry structural change (Hertel et al., 2001; Itakura and Lee, 2012; Lee and Itakura , 2014; Cheong, 2013) 1.1.2.2 Overview of experimental method in research on impacts of trade agreements - Research use of gravity model: Tinbergen (1962), Anderson and Wincoop (2003), Magee (2008), Hapsari and Mangunsong (2006), Ruzita et al (2009); Yin (2010), Do Ba Khai (2014), Okabe (2015), Vu Thanh Huong (2016), consistent with post-period assessment (the impacts have occurred) - Research use the global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model: Todsadee et al (2012), Petri et al (2012), Petri and Plummer (2016), Lee and Itakura (2015), Cassing et al ), Nguyen Duc Thanh et al (2015) - Research use the patial equilibrium: Cassing cộng (2010), Fukao cộng (2002), Datta Kouliavtsev (2005), Burfisher cộng (2014), Nguyễn Đức Thành cộng (2015) 1.1.3 Research on rice export and impacts of trade agreements on rice export - For rice export, research on overseas rice export: Boriss (2006), Poramacom (2014), Ramakrishna and Degaonkar (2016), Memon (2017), Adhikari et al (2016); research on rice export in Vietnam: Nguyen Trung Van (1998), Nguyen Dinh Long (1999), Dinh Thien Duc (2003), Le Minh Nghia (2004), Ho Cao Viet (2010), Dinh Van Thanh, Dinh Vu Van Hung (2013), Le Xuan Tao (2015) - For impacts of trade agreements on rice export, mostly qualitative research on impacts of trade agreements on the export of goods in general and agricultural products in particular, including rice as an example (Cassing et al., 2010; Dinh Van Thanh, 2010; Pham Thai Quoc, 2013; Tran Phu Phuong, 2013; Bui Thanh Nam, 2016; www.trungtamwto.vn/fta) or research on rice export which refers to trade agreements as a note in the development of the industry (Dawe, 2010; Anon., 2015; Broadbent et al 2015; Anon., 2016; Ramakrishna and Degaonkar, 2016) 1.2 Research space Firstly, most research only focus on one or more specific agreements Few research assessed aggregately the impact of bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements to export of Vietnam Secondly, research assessed mainly impacts of trade agreements on countries, including Vietnam, on the economic, welfare and national trade flows Few research assessed the impact of a trade agreement on a specific industry Thirdly, published research is lack of aggregate assessment as well as the update on new fluctuations in rice export (rice supply, rice demand in the international market, the impact of climate ) and the new export criteria accompanying as Vietnam is a member of the trade agreements 5 Fourthly, there are not many research in Vietnam that apply quantitative methods to assess the past impact of trade agreements on specific rice commodity export, from which to draw qualitative comments and practical solutions CHAPTER2: THEORETICAL FUNDAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ON ADAPTATION TO IMPACTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS ON RICE EXPORT 2.1 Theoretical fundament for impacts of trade agreements on rice export 2.1.1 Argument about trade agreements 2.1.1.1 The concept of trade agreements a Traditional concept: A trade agreement is an international treaty aimed at eliminating trade barriers, facilitating closer trade between the signatory countries, thereby promoting economic integration between member countries b Modern concept: not only be understood in the narrow scope of "shallow" economic cooperation as traditionally understood, but also the agreement of the "deep" economic integration between two or more groups of nations with broader and more comprehensive commitments than trade 2.1.1.2 Classification of trade agreements - Bilateral trade agreement: two member countries - Regional trade agreement: participation of three or more member countries which have close geographical location - Mixed Trade Agreement is a trade agreement between an international economic link and a country, a number of countries or some other international economic link, which is a special kind of bilateral trade agreement - Multilateral Trade Agreement is a trade agreement that includes many signatory countries in which the WTO is typical 2.1.1.3 Content of the trade agreements - Content of tariff reduction - Content of quotas - Content of Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) and Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPSs) - Content of Safeguard measures, Anti-dumping measures, anti-subsidy - Other diverse content: rules of origin; Trade in Services; Investment; dispute settlement mechanism; Government procurement, competition policy, intellectual property, sustainable development 2.1.1.4 Impacts of trade agreements on exports As discussed in the study overview, the impact of a trade agreement is divided into two tendencies that static and dynamic impact 2.1.2 Rice export and impacts of trade agreements on rice export 2.1.2.1 Rice and characteristics of rice production Rice is an agricultural product and has characteristics of agricultural production: (i) Affected by natural conditions such as land, climate, weather, ; (ii) Seasonal; (iii) Rice quality will directly affect the health of consumers; (iv) The postharvest processing and preservation is very important; (v) Rice has a variety of species, rice grain shape, taste, nutritional content 2.1.2.2 Rice export and impacts of trade agreements on rice export a Some traditional and modern trade theories show that international trade has always benefited the participating countries, thereby playing an important role in the world economy b The concept, form and role of rice export * Concept of export, rice export Export is the exchange of goods and services of a country with the rest of the world in order to benefit the nations This concept is used to specifically define export items in general and rice in particular * Forms of rice export: Direct rice export; entrusted rice export; Export rice under the protocol between the two Governments * The role of rice export In addition to its role in the export of goods, rice export also play a role in the export of agricultural products: to motivate the development of sector strategies in line with their ability and conditions to combine of national and global food security and long-term protection of natural resources, contribute to maintaining a favorable national and international environment for stable socio-economic development c Factors impact on rice export: Table 2.2: Factors affecting the potential impact of a Trade Agreement Factors of Supply Factors of Demand Economic scale Economic scale Population Group of index Vietnam (rice Rice importer from Vietnam exporting country) Population Area of rice cultivation Area of rice cultivation The distance between two countries Comparative advantage Habits, tastes Quality of rice Science and technology Economic distance Geographic distance Factors Group I - Nature of the trade Type of agreement The scope and extent of integration in the agreement agreement Amount and scale of participants in the agreement Similarities between Members before paticipating in the agreement Group II Economic and trade relations among the members of the agreement Group III Comparative advantage and complementarity Attractive / Obstructive factors Price of rice export Export management policies Tariff and non-tariff policies Exchange rate policy Inflation Comparative advantages of members Complementarity in the trade of members policy of the members of the 10 Openness of the economy Figure 2.1 Diagram of factors impacting on Vietnam's rice export Source: Author's summary d Impacts of trade agreements on rice export The Analysic Framework about the factors that affect the magnitude of the impact of a trade agreement 11 Group V - Price and elasticity of supply, demand and import demand before the agreement takes effect Group IV - Trade agreement The economic and trade relations between nations in trade International economic relationship (trade aggreements) Name Ordinal The export structure of partner country signed and did not sign the agreement Trade barriers between countries before the formation of the agreement Difference in the extent of protection of trade barriers before and after the formation of the agreement The complexity of the rules of origin in the agreement The difference between the price of the countries signed 12 and the price of the country not signed a trade agreement 13 Elastic supply, demand and import demand for prices Source: Vu Thanh Huong, 2016 In theory, a trade agreement is not only a basic direct impacting factor, but also an intermediary factor for others (economic factors, factors of comparative advantage, price, ) which impacts on a country's exports of goods Regarding Vietnam, rice is an agricultural product for export with high volume and value and is interested of trade negotiations Therefore, Vietnam’s rice export are subject to signed trade agreements’ impact, and need to consider impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam’s rice export through a reciprocal, simultaneous linkage and combinative factors The author then builds the Analysis Framework: 10 CHAPTER ANALYZING THE CURRENT SITUATION OF IMPACTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS ON VIETNAM’S RICE EXPORT Nature of the agreement I Trade aggreement - - Concessionary import tariff Rules of origin Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures Safeguard measures Technical Barriers Anti-dumping measures Dispute settlement mechanism Customs procedures II Economic and commercial relations Economic scale Population Economic distance IV Comparative advantage and complementarit Commercial policies Tariff and non-tariff policies V III Exchange rate policy Agricultural production / area of rice Quality of rice Habits, tastes Price and elasticity Fearutes of product Price of rice export 3.1 General of the development of the Vietnam’s rice sector 3.1.1 The situation of Vietnam’s rice production and export from 1981 to 1999 - Regarding production, with two outstanding policies were “Khoan 100” in 1981 and “Khoan 10” in 1988, the Land Law in 1993 and other supporting policies related, the area, yield and productivity of rice in the period 1981-1988 had positive changes and in the period 1989 - 1999, these indicators increased because the production was mainly based on the direction of intensive cultivation - Regarding export, with renovation in market, the quality, types, price of rice export, channels of distribution, rice exporters, tariff and quota, Vietnam first exported its products ranked 3rd in the world in 1989 and 2nd in the world in 1997 3.1.2 The situation of Vietnam’s rice production and export from 2000 to 2017 Regarding production, the area of rice cultivation was unstable and tends to be declining in recent times The increase in rice yield mainly depended on increasing productivity This figure in 2016 and 2017, rice yield was down from 2015 to make the trend of rice productivity was similar change Regarding export: Rice export of Vietnam Include / constitute Direct Impact Indirect effect I, II, III, : Order of group index factors affecting the trade agreements’ ability to impact Figure 2.2 Framework for analyzing impacts of trade agreements on rice export of Vietnam Source: Author's summary 2.2 International experience on adaptation to impacts of trade agreements on rice export From the export experience of Thailand, China, India under the impacts of trade agreements, the thesis draws the following lessons: (1) promote comparative advantages in rice production and meet technical barriers; (2) sttrengthen safeguard, dispute settlement by price and subsidy policy; (3) Creating a favorable environment for accessing the rice market through tariff tools and trade promotion; (4) It should be based on the economic potential and actual conditions of the rice sector in Vietnam; (5) There is a need for innovation in identifying the role of the rice sector in entering into trade agreements Figure 3.4 Vietnam’s rice export in the period 2000-2017 Source: Vietnam Food Association (VFA - http://www.vietfood.org.vn/) 3.2 The reality of impact of trade agreements on rice export of Vietnam in the period 2000 - 2015 3.2.1 Overview of Vietnam's trade agreements 3.2.1.1 The process of participating in the trade agreements of Vietnam 11 Vietnam's Trade Agreement Trade agreements signed / validated Trade agreements are negotiating / not signed Bilateral agreements Mixed agreement Vietnam - Japan (Validated in 2009) ASEAN (Validated in 1996) Vietnam – EU (negotiation finished) ASEAN – China (Validated in 2005) Vietnam - Chile (Validated in 2014) RCEP ASEAN – Korea (Validated in 2007) Vietnam - Korea (Validated in 2015) Vietnam - EFTA ASEAN – Japan (Validated in 2008) ASEAN – Australia/ New Zealand (Validated in 2010) Vietnam – Israel ASEAN – India (2010) Vietnam – Asian-Euro Union (Validated in 2016) ASEAN – Hongkong (Validated in 2019) CPTPP (Validated in 2019) Figure 3.5 The situation of participating in the trade agreements of Vietnam Source: Author's summary from the information on the site: http://www.trungtamwto.vn/fta 3.2.1.2 The contents of the trade agreements are related to rice export Table 3.1 The field of integration of trade agreements AFTA ACFTA AKFTA AJCEP VJEPA AIFTA AANZ- FTA VCFTA VKFTA VN-EAEU FTA AHKFTA i ii iii iv v vi vii viii ix x √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Source: Author's summary from the information on the site: http://www.trungtamwto.vn/fta (i) Contents of tariff: MFN, CEPT or ATIGA are tariff-cutting instruments; (ii) the content of rules of origin; (iii) Content of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures; (iv) Safeguard measures; (v) Technical Barriers; (vi) Anti-dumping measures; (vii) Contents of 12 Competition; (viii) Dispute settlement mechanism; (ix) Customs procedures; (x) Business environment 3.2.1.3 General assessment - After Vietnam applied for membership to the WTO, Vietnam has truly strong integration - Trade agreements tend to be richer and more diversified contents and areas of integration, and the level of association is getting "deepening” - For most of the regional and mixed agreements that Vietnam has signed, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a dominant role - ACFTA usually take largest density of rice imports from Vietnam compared to total Vietnam’s rice export 3.2.2 The reality of impact of signed trade agreements on rice export of Vietnam The thesis used two approaches which are Benefit Analysis Framework and Structural Gravity models to analyze the reality of impacts of trade agreements on rice export of Vietnam in the process of integration (in chronological order of the trade agreements validated) and the type of agreement 3.2.2.1 Approach from the benefit analysis framework Based on the factors that affect the faculty of impact of a trade agreement, for each agreement includes: AFTA, ACFTA, AJCEP, AKFTA, AIFTA AANZFTA, VJEPA, VKFTA, VCFTA, the thesis clarifies the characteristics, nature and economic relationship between the member countries in each agreement, the comparative advantages of agricultural production of Vietnam Besides, member countries, as well as the changes in rice import tariff policies of member countries for Vietnam’s rice when the agreement validited Thesis compares the quantity and value of rice exported by Vietnam to member countries before and after the agreement validated a The period before 2007 - AFTA: The total volume and value of Vietnam's rice export have changed markedly before and after the signing of the AFTA The upward happening is inherent in milestones when member countries of AFTA implementing commitments to reduce rice import tariff of Vietnam While the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are major importers of Vietnam’s rice with annual volumes of approximately million tons and regular customers for Vietnam’s rice, Myanmar is the importer of Vietnam’s rice at least in volume and value - ACFTA: although China's commitment to reducing rice import tariffs was enforce 10 years later (in 2015), when the agreement entered into force, the export of Vietnam’s rice to China was higher than in previous years After years since the time of validity, China imported Vietnam’s rice with a sudden increase in volume and always kept high 13 Table 3.6 Export volume of Vietnam's rice to member countries under trade agreements with ASEAN in the period 2000-2015 (ton) Year China Korea Japan Australia New Zealand India Năm China Korea Japan Australia New Zealand India 2000 1769 18144 13185 2001 2240 19065 25952 2002 9083 5000 5084 2003 1150 387 46610 2004 82671 75335 2005 50817 42 197007 2006 43218 97 165222 2007 42780 72 64640 23754 2871 11378 1557 4479 3202 1552 2703 57315 2008 3049 55 15065 11000 2009 20760 938 4166 1009 2010 124806 4829 375 2011 233774 15117 1238 2012 1545079 54710 28374 2152 2013 1480958 2969 918 2014 1352048 46992 11243 500 2015 1794261 43378 5182 3609 9994 8928 9429 6675 7835 8957 10326 1951 2020 47 5 0 Source: data from the General Statistics Office (https://www.gso.gov.vn/) b The period from 2007 to 2015 - Mixed trade agreements + Korea: Commitments on reducing import tariffs were implemented from January 1st, 2007, gradually reduce leading to eliminate from January 1st, 2010 After the validity of AKFTA, the volume of Vietnam's rice export to Korea remained very low in 2007-2008 It increased sharply from 2009, especially during the period 2010 2012 (when the rice import tariff South Korea is zero) + Japan: No promises to reduce tariff for Vietnam’s rice imported into Japan During the period 2000 - 2015, the volume of rice imported into Japan was up and down irregularly Since AJCEP validated, Vietnam's rice export have declined countinuously and Japan did not imported Vietnam’s rice in 2011 due to technical and quarantine barriers to rice products Then Japan continues to import Vietnam’s rice but remains low and unstable + Australia and New Zealand: Commitments on concessionary tariffs for rice of the two countries with Vietnam have been eliminated since Vietnam participated in the WTO (end of 2006), so the volume of Vietnam’s rice exported to these two countries tends to increase from 2007 (when Vietnam enjoyed concessionary tariffs from Australia and New Zealand thanks to WTO accession) + India: maintaining high import tariffs on Vietnam’s rice (70% - 80%), the volume of rice that this country importing from Vietnam declined countinuously and clearly over the years The time of validy of AIFTA marked the fact that India has hardly imported rice from Vietnam - Bilateral trade agreements Japan has a much larger import volume than South Korea and Chile, especially in the period 2003-2007 (the period before the VJCEP vadilated), but since the time of 14 VJCEP validity (in 2009) to 2015, this import volume declined dramatically Chile began importing Vietnam’s rice since 2003 and increased Vietnam’s rice import since 2010 However, since the VCFTA agreement came into effect in 2014 with tariffs applied to rice imported from Vietnam to this country is 6% in 10 years, this amount of imported rice drops about 50% per year The Vietnam-Korea bilateral agreement, which took effect in 2015, may be the reason why Vietnam's rice export to South Korea increased again in 2014 and 2015 after suddenly dropping in 2013 * Comparing rice export structure to member countries and groups of countries Exported Vietnam’s rice consists of types: milled rice, brown rice, broken rice and paddy in which paddy is exported in a very small volume with the main aim of facilitating trade relations between Vietnam and other countries The difference in income, demand, and consumer tastes of rice leads to the difference in the type of imported rice in each member country, in which milled rice is “favorite” rice of many countries in the world, especially ASEAN member countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and China; brown rice is Vietnam's high-grace rice although it is exported at a very small proportion compared to the total amount of rice exported by Vietnam, which South Korea, Australia and New Zealand imported but unstable; broken rice is less preferred and low prices so, it was imported mainly by ASEAN countries and China * Compare average price of rice export to member countries and groups The average export price of rice to countries and groups of regional trade agreements tended to increase and decrease during this period, in which the average price of rice exported to Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand is often higher ASEAN and China are Vietnam’s rice importers with lower average prices Considering each type of rice: milled rice exported to high-life markets such as Korea, Australia and New Zealand are more beneficial to middle-income countries such as ASEAN and China; broken rice makes lower average export price of rice to the countries that import this rice with more weight This suggests that it is necessary to consider the type of rice to be exported for each market classification: it is more beneficial to export rice to a higher-grade markets The situation of rice dumping also makes Vietnam's rice export ineffective 3.2.2.2 Approaching from structural gravity model a Structural gravity model The traditional gravitational model is based on the idea of Newton's Law of Gravitation, which is a function of the characteristics of the exporting country, the importing country and the obstruction between these two countries This gravity model is developed on a strong theoretical basis, especially the Structural Gravity Model classes with the Armington-Constant Elasticity of Substitution, CES, together with PPML (Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood) estimation techniques Taking the natural logarithm, we have the equation: ln X ijt = ln E jt + ln Yi , t − ln Yt + (1 − σ ) ln τ ij , t − (1 − σ ) ln P j , t − (1 − σ ) ln π i ,t + u ij ,t which represents bilateral trade costs is represented: 15 (1 − σ ) ln τ ij ,t = β1 ln DISTij + β 2CNTGij + β 3CLNYij + β LLOCK j + β RTAij ,t + β BTAij ,t + β 7τ ij ,t In terms of experiment, due to data limitations, the thesis uses compact gravitational structure: ln X ij ,t = a + a1 ln GDPvn i ,t + a ln EXP j ,t + α ln RER ij ,t + b1 ln DISTij + b2 CNTGij + b3CLNYij + b4 LLOCKj + c1 RTAij ,t + c2 E j ,t Agreeij ,t + c3 BTAij ,t + eij ,t where a0 is the intercept, and aj, bj, cj ϵ N++ are the parameters to be estimated in the gravitaty model; X ij ,t : Vietnam's bilateral rice export value to the economy j; GDPvni ,t : Vietnam's gross domestic product; RERij ,t : Real bilateral exchange rate between Vietnam and country j; EXPj ,t : Total final consumption expenditure of the economy j; DISTij : The geographical distance between Vietnam and the economy j is measured by the distance between Hanoi and the capital of the partner countries; CNTGij : Dummy variables take if Vietnam and the economy j share border lines and in other cases; CLNYij : Dummy variables take if Vietnam and the economy j share the same colonial system before and in other cases; LLOCK j : Dummy variables take if the economy j is landlocked and in other cases; RTAij ,t BTAij ,t : Dummy variables with multilateral and bilateral integration takes if Vietnam and the economy j are paticipated in Regional Trade Agreements and validity at time t and in other cases; E j ,t Agree ij ,t : Interactional variables between the trade agreement dummy and the total final consumption expenditure of the importing country; eij ,t : The random error in the model is assumed to follow the normal distribution rule with mean is and constant variance b Results of empirical analysis The results of structural gravity estimation for 60 countries which are the main rice importers of Vietnam (Vietnam's rice export to 60 countries with a total proportion of over 90% of Vietnam's rice export turnover) from 1998 to 2015, most variables are statistically significant with high reliability * The overall impact of trade agreements - Impact from the demand: the final expenditure variable of Vietnam's rice importing countries in the model is positive and very small value, which is consistent with the characteristics of the rice industry in the current period When income increases, demand for food commodities tends to increase at lower level - Attractive / obstructive impacts: the estimated coefficient of dummy variables for landlocked countries with negative sign implies that countries that are not adjacent to the sea impede rice export transactions between Vietnam and countries; exchange rate policy seems to be ineffective in promoting Vietnam's export of goods when it is negative 16 - Agreement dummy variables: WTO dummy variable estimates showed that WTO accession promotes Vietnam's rice export activity when the estimated coefficient was positive but this effect is not significant The estimated coefficient of AFTA dummy variable with positive value indicates the positive impact of AFTA on Vietnam's rice export by about 0.2% higher than the remaining countries However, Vietnam did not actively exploit the advantages of rice export when signing the ASEAN+6 trade agreements as the coefficients of this dummy variable bring negative values at 0.24% It is unclear how to exploit the benefits of signing bilateral free trade agreements The coefficient of the interaction variable between the trade agreement and the final expenditure is statistically significant and the very small positive value It indicates that when there are impacts of trade agreements, the expenditure of importing countries is for consuming rice imported increased insignificantly * Comparison of impacts between ASEAN+6 trade agreements Considering the total impact of the ASEAN+6 trade agreements, this impact was negative However, when the marginal impact of each trade agreement is split, including AIFTA, ACFTA, AKFTA, AJCEP, AANZFTA, the structural gravity model recorded a positive effect from the signing of ACFTA, AKFTA and AANZFTA with the estimated coefficients of these dummy variables were positive values of 0.295%, 0.222% and 0.284% respectively The opposite is noted for the AIFTA and AJCEP agreements with a negative estimate, the impact of the AIFTA agreement had a significant negative impact at 0.545% 3.2.3 Evaluate the impact of trade agreement on Vietnam's rice export From two approaches include Analyzing framework and structural gravity model, the thesis provides assessments on the impact of trade agreement on Vietnam's rice export through the following table: Postive Increase 2008 2010 2010 AJCEP AIFTA AANZFTA Source: synthetic author Medium Similar Small Small 2007 2007 AKFTA 0% Negative Negative Large Large Similar 2005 ACFTA Exclude from list Not similar Medium Decline strongly Decline strongly High Less similar Less similar Large 1996 AFTA 2007 - 2010 Time of validity Agreement No Exclude from list Not similar Small Postive Increase Medium Similar Medium Less similar Small Postive Increase Large 2003 2004 2010 - 2015 2015 2018 10% 5% 0% 20% 5% Gradually decrease to 0% Similar Large Similar Medium Postive Increase Medium Similar Large Large Population Economic difference Implementary period Discount level Similar Types of consumer rice Technical standards required Rice export trend before and after the agreement validity Proportion of agricultural production Preferential tariffs 17 Bảng 3.11 Tổng hợp tác động hiệp định thương mại hỗn hợp đến xuất gạo Việt Nam giai đoạn 2000 – 2015 Impact trend (gravity model) 18 3.2.3.1 Impact of trade agreement on rice export through a level of integration Impacts of trade agreements on rice export is less dependent on the number of signed trade agreements and the degree of diversity, "depth" of the field of trade negotiations and association of trade agreements Trade agreement which gives member countries with socio-economic characteristics related to new suitable rice products to Vietnam brings a clear positive impact on Vietnam's rice export 3.2.3.2 Impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice import of the members’ demand - The impact of income of importing countries on rice export of Vietnam is only low but impacts of trade agreements makes the expenditure on imported rice from Vietnam increase despite a small relatively - Members which have proximate economic, close geographical to Vietnam or a comparative advantage, complementary to rice trade, having similarities between the type of consumer rice and Vietnam’s rice export This lead to an increase in demand for imported rice from Vietnam, so trade agreements signed between Vietnam and those member countries has a positive impact on Vietnam’s rice export and vice versa 3.2.3.3 Impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice export trade barriers First, with the ASEAN+6 trade agreements, preferential import tariffs can be considered as a less content to create discrimination between countries participating in trade agreements compared to other factors Secondly, clear rules of origin and the need to meet the technical barriers of products create great barriers to Vietnam’s rice export when penetrating markets, especially those with high living standards and rigorous quality like Japan, United State 3.2.3.4 Impacts of trade agreements on structure and price of Vietnam's rice export Countries with higher living standards tend to import higher quality rice varieties than countries with lower living standards In addition, the export of medium rice will bring more benefits in the middle market and higher grade rice will be more suitable for the higher end market 3.2.3.5 Impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice export through geographical distance and exchange rate factors The impact of rice trade creation of signing trade agreements with members through geographical distance factors are not yet clear Besides, the impact of exchange rates on rice export is in fact consistent with the theory 3.3 Advantages, limitations and causes of limitations when Vietnam's rice export are affected by trade agreements 3.3.1 Advantages - Trade agreements further promote Vietnam’s rice export with member countries with or without income similarities, close to geographical distances, similar rice consumption habits or having comparative advantages and additional capabilities in the agricultural sector, including rice production compared to those countries or not 19 - Import tariffs on Vietnam’s rice are gradually eliminated with most trade agreements when they validate - The trade agreement provides a solid basis for quality as well as legal standards for rice when Vietnam exports when rice import and export disputes occur with member countries 3.3.2 Difficulties and limitations - Vietnam's rice importers are still mostly familiar customers, some new markets are not members that Vietnam has signed - The competitiveness of Vietnam’s rice is still poor, although Vietnam's average export price of rice is lower than other countries - Mixed trade agreements are easy to create a trade diversion when Vietnam’s rice does not differ or excel in characteristics as well as quality or is not suitable for rice consumption culture - The technical regulations and import-export procedures stated in the agreement make many Vietnam’s rice exporters bring rice to markets by the unofficial way (small quota), making significantly impact on prestige domestic rice - The phenomenon of rice export only attaches much importance to the quantity and neglects the quality of rice, that makes rice export value inadequate - The direct combined effects of trade agreements are positive but still low 3.3.3 Cause of limitations Firstly, Vietnam's rice variety and quality have little innovation, its decentralization at medium level and are often suitable for the current markets of Vietnam (Asia, Africa) It is difficult to expand to High-end markets such as the US, Japan and Europe Vietnam has not yet really built up its own brand Secondly, Vietnam's rice has not really been produced, processed, preserved according to the agricultural product value chain process consistently before exporting Thirdly, Vietnam has not yet considered the investigation and collection of information on fluctuations in rice supply and demand in the world Fourthly, inaccurate and incomplete about the contents of the signed trade agreement and the lack of interest in the rice export benefits during the negotiation of trade agreements CHAPTER SOME SOLUTIONS TO ENHANCE THE ADAPTABILITY OF VIETNAM’S RICE EXPORT TO IMPACTS OF THE TRADE AGREEMENTS BY 2030 4.1 Rice export and import trend in the world affects Vietnam's rice export 4.1.1 Fluctuations in global rice supply and demand - Considering the global rice supply fluctuations, besides countries such as Thailand, India, Pakistan with the total rice export market share of these countries account for about 80% of the total export of rice worldwide, currently The rice export 20 market has appeared emerging countries with abundant rice supply, good quality and competitive prices - Considering world demand fluctuations for Vietnamese rice, large importers of Vietnam’s rice are still Asian countries (China, Philippines, Indonesia ) and Africa (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa ) For high-end markets such as the US, Japan, and Europe, the amount of Vietnam’s rice exported is tending to increase slowly 4.1.2 Changes in rice export and import policies of countries affecting Vietnam's rice export Thailand discharges rice stock, China with a large amount of Vietnam’s rice export through small quota to reduce costs, fluctuations in exchange rates of countries, rice trade agreements MAV, the Nigerian government increased rice import tax to encourage domestic people towards stopping rice imports 4.1.3 The impact of the commercial war The trade war between the United States and China is a new manifestation of trade protectionism and the viewpoint of anti-globalization which may increase Vietnam's rice export opportunities into these two markets to fill the gap However, it is also possible to reduce the import of rice from Vietnam to two markets because Vietnam’s rice export may be subject to similar import tariffs from the two countries 4.2 The situation potential impacts of trade agreements has not validity and trade agreements are negotiating for Vietnam's rice export Expenditure on these groups of members had a positive influence on Vietnam’s rice export even though the total effect is not high In particular, the final consumption of the "more advanced" European market is likely to impact Vietnam's rice export at a clearer level but have limited geographical distance and bilateral exchange rates The average export price of Vietnam’s rice to EFTA is the highest in recent years Israel and Hong Kong are also the two Vietnam’s rice importing countries at relatively high prices Countries with the proportion of imported broken rice has increased, the average export price of rice has decreased 4.3 Trend of the impact of Vietnam's trade agreements on rice export 4.3.1 Trade agreements and tariff barriers for Vietnam’s rice export Vietnam’s rice must meet the rules of origin and be shown accurately and clearly on the package to be included in the list of commitments to enjoy preferential tariffs when importing into member markets of the trade agreements that Vietnam participates in Therefore, establishing agricultural value chains for Vietnam’s rice export helps exporters easily complete the certification procedure of origin 4.3.2 Trade agreements and non-tariff barriers to Vietnam's rice export Technical barriers, price regulations, subsidies and rice export policies are content that Vietnam needs to pay more attention to when it comes to trade agreements because these are relatively sensitive issues for the Vietnam’s rice industry Hence, it makes Vietnam’s rice export easy to violate international conventions 4.3.3 Trade agreement and climate change for Vietnam's rice production Climate change reduces the area of rice cultivation, causing appearing some "harmful" species due to changes the living conditions of living species, changing the 21 structure of crops, etc Since then the rice productivity has also changed, the quality of rice products is also affected 4.4 Some solutions for Vietnam’s rice export to adapt to the effects of trade agreements 4.4.1 Adapting to the content of rules of origin, technical barriers and phytosanitary of trade agreements Export rice should be followed the process of agricultural value chain in accordance with the trade contents of the trade agreement Namely: Firstly, technical standardization for each stage from the production to the export of rice includes: selection of varieties, cultivation, harvesting, processing and packaging Secondly, build a link between the stages through the implementation of synchronous investment, creating vertical links, managing rice by value chain, gradually reducing intermediate circulation Thirdly, creating close links between the stakeholders involved in rice production and export activities, which are "four houses" relationship: state, scientists, businesses and farmers 4.4.2 Adapting to the competitive and business content of trade agreements 4.4.2.1 Diversify rice products Vietnam's rice export need to target all three market segments, with priority given to the high-end market although the middle market is a potential market and the low-end market is a complementary market Thence, finding new markets, expanding markets and diversifying Vietnam’s rice import markets will contribute to taking advantage of the benefits of trade agreements 4.4.2.2 Trade promotion for rice export - Need to determine what rice products should be included in the trade promotion list and to introduce to the market, especially for new markets and new rice products Need to determine what market is the immediate market and where is the long-term market - Collect and analyze market information to show what rice products are and how to enter the market for each market arrangement 4.4.3 Adaptation to tariff commitments, anti-dumping and dispute settlement mechanisms of trade agreements 4.4.3.1 Tariff tool Flexible export taxes for each type of rice and each level of deep processing or preliminary processing can be applied to adjust the structure of rice products, thereby adjusting the structure of rice export in a positive direction 22 4.4.3.2 Non-tariff tools a Quota Application of quotas should: (i) according to demand and supply; (ii) being offered to sell the tender so that businesses can participate publicly; (iii) allow enterprises to transfer quotas to one another; (iv) combined with tax tools; (v) must be calculated so that businesses can buy more favorable quotas; (vi) need to adjust towards increasing taxes and quotas that appropriate to national interests and security b Policy of price and subsidies - The state needs support to help Vietnam's rice industry has clear movement in stabilizing export rice prices without damaging the interests of rice producers - This form of rice export subsidy should only be at a moderate level and within the allowable limit of trade regulations to avoid trade distortions Too low export prices will violate the anti-dumping regulations in the trade commitment c Exchange rate policy - Adjusting the exchange rate to match the actual purchasing power, on the other hand proceeding to devaluate Vietnam dong in a suitable way to encourage exports and attract foreign investment - Relative stability is ensured - Consider this tool as a supportive measure when working closely with many other policies 4.4.4 Adapting to the sustainable development content of trade agreements The chapter on Sustainable development of trade agreements deals with environmental areas and obligations including climate change Therefore, restructuring rice production increases efficiency in rice production, other types of crops and fisheries, creates more jobs, increases income for people and contributes to environmental improvement When implementing the restructuring of Vietnam's rice industry, it is necessary to unify the viewpoint: (i) respect the natural and social laws; (ii) ensuring rice remains a place based on economic, security, national defense and national identity; (iii) adapt to the environment; (iv) in accordance with market economy rules; (v) all economic sectors are subjects in the process of restructuring the rice industry; (vi) applying science and technology 4.5 Some petitions 4.5.1 For the Government - The Government needs to develop strategies and plans to develop production and export of rice to adapt to the trend of international economic integration and in line with industry characteristics; further specifying documents aimed at adjusting the entire production and export of rice in accordance with the agricultural value chain, appropriate to the contents of trade agreements; demonstrating the role in negotiating and signing trade agreements towards the goal of protecting the interests of Vietnam's rice industry but still ensuring suitable for international practices; build and maintain close links between the state and businesses, with scientists and farmers 23 4.5.2 For ministries and branches - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shall develop documents to organize and direct the implementation of rice production activities according to international technical and quarantine standards; actively participate in negotiating and consulting to sign international treaties related to rice industry and rice export sector; promoting the role of focal point in the construction and development of Vietnam’s rice brand - Ministry of Industry and Trade should issue documents to guide in detail international processes, procedures and practices for rice export activities; directing the implementation of activities to promote Vietnam’s rice products trade; ensure the balance of supply and demand of the domestic and foreign rice market; review and improve rice trade policies in line with integration commitments - The Ministry of Science and Technology shall coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in intensifying the signing of investment agreements and technological assistance in the stages of breeding, production, harvesting, preservation, processing and package for products of rice and rice exported Active participation in evaluating rice product quality inspection technology according to international standards - The Ministry of Health needs to strengthen coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the Ministry of Science and Technology in managing quality, hygiene and safety for exported rice products, ensuring environmental standards of trade aggreement 4.5.3 For Vietnam Food Association Firstly, directly operate and organize the implementation of research activities and participate in the application of new rice production models in a positive and effective way Secondly, it is a bridge between the State and farmers, with businesses to have unified operation as well as timely support of policies and information Thirdly, actively expanding cooperation with foreign units and organizations in their permission to not only directly access information, participate and cooperate, promote and market rice products to international markets CONCLUSION The appearance of a trade agreement has impacts on the import and export activities of all sectors in our economy at different levels Vietnam’s rice export are also inevitably affected by this typical international economic integration In addition, the rice industry itself is also changing by other objective and subjective factors Rice export will receive these impacts positively and clearly when the rice industry is increasingly adapting to the negotiating contents of trade agreements However, it is not far from market laws, in harmony with the development of the industry, with other agricultural products and ensuring the sustainable development of the environment With the goal of rice export more adaptable to impacts of trade agreements and in the 24 context of new international economic integration, the thesis achieves the following results: Firstly, the thesis researches and selects the contents of trade agreements related to specific rice items, which are clear bases of rules of origin, technical standards and sanitation, business environment, , that requires rice export to comply In addition, the thesis adds separate regulations for Vietnam's rice export to be followed by each rice importer; Secondly, trade agreements can directly affect Vietnam's rice export through negotiated contents, which can have indirect impacts factors affecting their influence ability which include: economic gap, comparative advantage, complementarity in agricultural production between Vietnam and the Vietnam’s rice importing country, similarities/ differences in the structure of rice export with the type of rice consumed by the importing country (combined with the Analysis framework and Structure gravity model); Thirdly, regarding the overall impact, Vietnam’s participation in trade agreements minorly promotes its rice export Regarding the particular impact, not all valid trade agreements that Vietnam has participated deliver positive impacts to rice export Only those that bring about members with socio-economic conditions favorable for Vietnam’s rice export in terms of comparative advantages, complimentarity, consumer tastes, etc., that has a positive impact; Fourthly, the thesis presents the impact trend of trade agreements on Vietnam’s rice export, on global rice supply and demand fluctuations, on the changes in export policies and in natural conditions These are headline issues for rice industry, requiring the whole industry to respond to make Vietnam’s rice more accessible to any market in the world and rice export needs to be improved in quality, not just in quantity; Fifthly, based on the results of the research and experience in rice export under impacts of trade agreements with some countries as well as the global trend in rice export and import, the thesis proposes some recommendations for Vietnam's rice export to adapt to the contents of trade agréments These include (1) technical standardization in rice production and maintaining the linkage between different production stages and between stakeholders; (2) proactively adjust rice export policies such as product policies, tax policy, trade promotion, exchange rate policy that conforms to general international practices and each individual import market as well as to suit the specific characteristics of the industry; (3) step by step restructure the rice industry to produce and export rice in accordance with the content of environmental protection, to create jobs and income to the agricultural and rural areas, and to harmonize with the development trend of international economic integration, contributing to the promotion of positive impacts of trade agreements to rice export, toghether with ensuring the economic - social - political - cultural significance of rice production towards sustainable development  ... agricultural production Preferential tariffs 17 Bảng 3.11 Tổng hợp tác động hiệp định thương mại hỗn hợp đến xuất gạo Việt Nam giai đoạn 2000 – 2015 Impact trend (gravity model) 18 3.2.3.1 Impact... with Vietnam have been eliminated since Vietnam participated in the WTO (end of 2006), so the volume of Vietnam’s rice exported to these two countries tends to increase from 2007 (when Vietnam enjoyed... 1996) Vietnam – EU (negotiation finished) ASEAN – China (Validated in 2005) Vietnam - Chile (Validated in 2014) RCEP ASEAN – Korea (Validated in 2007) Vietnam - Korea (Validated in 2015) Vietnam -