MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY GREGORY ROBERT MORRIS EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE, VIETNAM MASTER THESIS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE KHANH HOA – 2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY GREGORY ROBERT MORRIS EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE, VIETNAM MASTER THESIS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE Major: Topic allocation Decision Decision on establishing the Committee: Defense date: Supervisors: Prof Claire Armstrong Dr Nguyen Ngoc Duy Chairman: (Full name) (signature) Faculty of Graduate Studies: (Full name) (signature) KHANH HOA – 2018 UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled: “EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE, VIETNAM” is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted … Date Month Year Author (Signature and full name) iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express appreciation to the Faculty and Staff / Department of Economics and Management, Nha Trang University and professors of Norhed Master Program for their generous contributions towards my academic sojourn and the completion of my thesis Special mention goes to my enthusiastic supervisor, Professor Claire Armstrong (University of Tromsoe, Norway) for her tremendous academic support and advice Similar, profound gratitude goes to Dr Nguyen Ngoc Duy (University of Nha Trang, Vietnam), who has been a dedicated mentor and advisor I am also particularly indebted to him for his support Finally, but by no means least, special thanks go to the God Mighty God Jehovah and to my late parents, Mr Joseph S Morris and Fatu M Roberts, for their support towards my academic sojourn I would also like to thank my beloved Aunt, Sponsor, and Guidant - Aunt Janet Mayson who has always been there for me from the start Special thanks go to my Sis Debra Mayson, Bro Daniel Johnson, and to my brothers, sisters, and friends for supporting me spiritually and mentally throughout my master studies iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AC Adaptive Capacity CCA Climate Change Adaptation CCFSC Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control DFID Department for International Development is a United Kingdom E Exposure EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EM-DAT Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GDP Gross Domestic Product GSO General Statistics Office, IDS Institute of Development Studies IFEP, RIMF Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning and Research Institute for Marine Fisheries IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISPONRE Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JSPS-VAST Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) and Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology MDGs Millennium Development Goals MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment S Sensitivity SI Sensitivity Index UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction USGS United States Geological Survey VBN Vietnam Breaking News: VI Vulnerability Index WB World Bank v TABLE OF CONTENTS UNDERTAKING iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS v LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF FIGURES x ABSTRACT .xi CHAPTER ONE .1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Statement of the Problem 1.3 Objectives of the Research 1.4 Research Questions .7 1.5 Significance of the Research 1.6 Limitation of the Research 1.7 Structure of the Research CHAPTER TWO 10 LITERATURE REVIEW/THEORITCAL FRAMEWORK 10 2.0 A Brief Understanding of Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change 10 2.1 Causes of Climate Change 13 2.2 Potential Consequences of Climate Change 13 2.3 Climate Change and Small Scale Fishing Activities in Vietnam 14 2.4 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptations 15 2.4.1 Background theory for the adaptation to climate change of aquaculture farmers 16 2.5 Theoretical Framework: Sustainable Livelihood Approach 18 2.5.1 Overview of Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) .19 2.5.2 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework 20 2.6 Perception on the Effects of Climate Change on Fishermen’s Income - Developing the Hypotheses 27 CHAPTER THREE 30 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 30 vi 3.0 Introduction .30 3.1 Methodological Approach: SLA Strategy and Application 30 3.2 Study Area 34 3.3 Targeted Population, Sample Size, and Sample 36 3.4 Methods of Data Collection 37 3.5 Methods of Data Analysis 42 3.5.1 General Survey and FGD Data Analysis 42 CHAPTER FOUR 47 RESEARCH FINDINGS 47 4.0 Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Fishermen 47 4.2 Factors Influencing Fishermen’s Yearly Income – Regression Output 53 4.3 Focus Group Discussion Findings 54 4.3.1 Tool 1: Livelihoods Vulnerability Matrix 55 4.3.2 Tool 2: Pair-Wise Ranking 56 4.3.3 Tool 3: Preference Ranking of Preferred Coping and Adaptive Strategies 57 4.4 Impacts of Storms, Heavy and Long rainfall, and Flooding on Livelihood Assets and Activities - Findings 58 4.4.1 Impact of Storms (Typhoon) 59 4.4.2 Impact of Heavy and long Rainfall 60 4.4.3 Impact of Flooding 60 4.5 Fishermen and their Families Access to Livelihood Assets 61 4.6 Fishermen and their families’ Preparedness for and Adaptation to Climate Change 62 4.7 Types of Coping Strategies and Adaptation 63 4.7.1 Institutional Profiling: Venn Diagram 64 CHAPTER FIVE 65 RESULTS, DISCUSSION, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .65 5.0 Introduction .65 5.1 Vulnerability Context 66 5.2 Livelihoods Assets 69 5.2.1 Human and Social Capital/Assets 69 5.2.2 Natural Capital and Physical Capital/Assets .70 vii 5.2.3 Financial Capital 70 5.3 Policies, Institutions, and Processes 73 5.4 Livelihood Strategies and Livelihood Outcomes .74 5.5 Conclusion and Recommendations 75 5.5.1 Addressing the Research Objectives .75 5.5.2 Recommendations 78 REFERENCES .79 Appendix viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Sample Population by Study Sites 36 Table 2: Socio-Economic Characteristics of Fishermen 48 Table 3: The Relationship between Fishing Activities and Weather/Climate Condition 51 Table 4: Severity of Effects (SOE) of Environmental and Extreme Weather and Climate Events/Issues 53 Table 5: Factors Influencing Fishermen’s Yearly Income – Regression Output 54 Table 6: Livelihoods Vulnerability Matrix for Both Villages 56 Table 7: Pair-Wise Ranking of Climate Change Impacts (N=10) 57 Table 8: Preference Ranking of Preferred Coping and Adaptive Strategies 58 Table 9: Fishermen’s Coping Strategies and Adaptation Currently Undertaken 63 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The Sustainable Livelihood Framework 21 Figure 2: Livelihood Assets/ Capitals of a Fishing Community 22 Figure 3: Map of Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam 35 Figure 4: Fishermen’s Awareness/Knowledge of Climate Change 49 Figure 5: Environmental and Climate Events/Issues Experienced in Recent Years (in % of respondents’ identification) 52 Figure 6: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Storm (Typhoon)59 Figure 7: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Heavy & Long Rainfall 60 Figure 8: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Flood 61 Figure 9: Access to Livelihoods Assets/Capitals 62 Figure 10: Fishermen and their families’ Preparedness for Climate Change 63 Figure 11: Relationship of Stakeholders and Fishermen 64 x Appendix C: Regression Output on Fishermen’s Income Regression Statistics on Fishermen’s Yearly Income Multiple R 0.697036646 R Square 0.485860086 Adjusted R Square 0.353178818 Standard Error 0.183577419 Observations 40 ANOVA df SS 0.987256763 1.044720737 2.0319775 MS 0.123407095 0.033700669 Coefficients Standard Error Intercept 0.424663099 0.136411797 FA - Fishing Activities -0.203368104 0.114105123 Age 0.386707539 0.158721777 Education Level 0.314446897 0.174099153 Health Condition 0.397131635 0.109594646 Employment Status 0.34502217 0.500527615 Social Capital 0.566596961 0.144392262 HH Safety Level 0.382922676 0.163363786 Vulnerability Level -0.957366534 0.213286096 t Stat 3.113096591 -1.782287231 2.436386146 1.806136854 3.623640839 0.689316951 3.924011946 2.343987524 -4.488649531 Regression Residual Total 31 39 F Significance F 3.661858924 0.004131687 P-value 0.003962168 0.084500261 0.020775101 0.080615081 0.001026958 0.495751487 0.000451013 0.025665582 9.24526E-05 Lower 95% Upper 95% 0.146449406 0.702876793 -0.436087038 0.029350829 0.06299234 0.710422739 -0.040630667 0.669524461 0.173611881 0.620651389 -0.675810632 1.365854972 0.272107001 0.861086921 0.049740038 0.716105313 -1.392366394 -0.522366674 Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 0.146449406 0.702876793 -0.436087038 0.029350829 0.06299234 0.710422739 -0.040630667 0.669524461 0.173611881 0.620651389 -0.675810632 1.365854972 0.272107001 0.861086921 0.049740038 0.716105313 -1.392366394 -0.522366674 ...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY GREGORY ROBERT MORRIS EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL- SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA. .. coastal settlements, focusing on Vinh Luong, Nha Trang City and Ninh Ich Ward, Ninh Hoa – Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam Evaluating these fishermen s perception on the impacts of climate change, ... understanding of the socio-economic implication of these hazards Thus, this study explores the impacts of climate change on small scale fisher folks’ livelihoods in coastal settlements of Khanh Hoa Province,