Ukraine and beyond russia’s strategic security challenge to europe

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UKRAINE and BEYOND RUSSIA’S STRATEGIC SECURITY CHALLENGE TO EUROPE Edited by JANNE HAALAND MATLARY and TORMOD HEIER Ukraine and Beyond Janne Haaland Matlary • Tormod Heier Editors Ukraine and Beyond Russia’s Strategic Security Challenge to Europe Editors Janne Haaland Matlary University of Oslo Norway Tormod Heier Norwegian Defence University College Oslo, Norway ISBN 978-3-319-32529-3 ISBN 978-3-319-32530-9 DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-32530-9 (eBook) Library of Congress Control Number: 2016947982 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016 This work is subject to copyright All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made Cover illustration: © Joeri DE ROCKER / Alamy Stock Photo Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank the Norwegian Command and Staff College and the University of Oslo for their financial and other support for this book project Our work matured in discussions at the Staff College about how Europe and Russia seem to misunderstand each other at a time when there is a strong requirement to the opposite We would also like to thank Birgitte Grande and Olav Aalberg at the Norwegian Defence University College for their help with the cover illustration and the editing of our English Possible errors remain our own Oslo, 17 June 2016 JHM and TH Oslo, Norway v CONTENTS Part I Setting the Scene Introduction Janne Haaland Matlary and Tormod Heier Europe, Russia and the World of Magical Realism Christopher Coker Realpolitik Confronts Liberal Democracy: Can Europe Respond? Janne Haaland Matlary 35 Deterrence and Limited Wars: Echoes from the Cold War? Gjert Lage Dyndal and Øistein Espenes 61 Part II Strategic Interaction Driving Forces in Russia’s Strategic Thinking Igor Sutyagin 17 83 85 vii viii CONTENTS Could Britain Respond Strategically To Russian Aggression? Julian Lindley-French Strategic Ability in Europe: The Case of France Øyvind Østerud Part III 10 11 129 147 Russian Operations: Continuity, Novelties and Adaptation Palle Ydstebø 149 Tools of Russian Influence: Information and Propaganda Geir Hågen Karlsen 181 Russian and Western Views of International Law: The Case of Crimea Jacob Thomas Staib 209 Asymmetric Ethics? Russian and Western Perceptions of War Nils Terje Lunde 239 Part IV 12 The Use of Force 101 Conclusions: Mapping NATO’s Vulnerabilities The Logic of Asymmetry: Russia’s Approach Towards NATO Tormod Heier Index 263 265 289 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS Christopher Coker is Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science Coker has done extensive research within the fields of war, US and British foreign policy, Contemporary Ideas and Ideologies His latest books include Warrior Geeks: how 21st century technology is changing the way we fight and think about war (2013), Barbarous Philosophers: reflections on the nature of war from Heraclitus to Heisenberg (2010) and War in an Age of Risk (2009) Gjert  Lage  Dyndal is a Colonel in the Royal Norwegian Air Force and holds a PhD in Modern History from the University of Glasgow He is Deputy Commandant of the Norwegian Command and Staff College at the Defence University College He has written extensively on Cold War issues in the High North within the field of Russian and Western strategies Øistein  Espenes is Associate Professor at the Airpower Department at the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF) Academy He is a historian and his area is Norwegian foreign policy and airpower He was the Dean of the RNoAF Academy from 2001 to 2009 Janne  Haaland Matlary is Professor at the Institute for Political Science at the University of Oslo and adjunct professor at the Norwegian Command and Staff College She was deputy foreign minister for Norway from 1997 to 2000, and is a columnist on the major daily Dagens Næringsliv She was visiting fellow of Pembroke College, Oxford University, in 2013 Her most recent book is NATO’s European Allies: Military Capability and Political Will (with M. Peterson, (2013) and she is currently completing an monograph entitled Hard Power in Hard Times: Can Europe Act Strategically? ix INDEX A active measures, 12, 182, 184, 185, 188, 194–200 Act of aggression, 210, 218, 220 Afghanistan, 12, 13, 24, 32, 107, 112, 120, 131, 138, 151, 153–8, 161, 165, 167, 212, 248, 271, 274 agreements, 19, 76, 105, 136, 141, 142, 163, 195, 210, 214, 218–20 anticipatory self-defence, 213, 222, 223 asymmetry, 106, 149, 182, 265–79 B Byzantine Empire, 211, 244 Byzantium, 244, 252, 253, 256, 257 C Caroline Case, 222 Chernichenko, 212, 214 Cold War, 6, 10, 11, 20, 23, 25, 26, 30, 31, 44, 46, 49, 50, 53, 55, 61–77, 89, 92, 108, 112, 113, 118, 130, 131, 133, 141–3, 153, 155, 158, 163, 166, 194, 197, 211, 241, 269 common good, 246, 247 consent, 214, 220–2 Constitution, 135, 136, 213–16, 221, 224, 247, 248, 270, 275, 276, 279 Cosmopolitan law enforcement, 18 covert action, 12, 182, 184, 194, 199, 200 D deterrence, 4, 5, 9, 20, 29, 30, 42, 44–50, 55, 57, 61–77, 105, 111, 118, 119, 131–3, 219, 267, 273, 274, 278 diplomacy, 12, 13, 36, 50, 54, 90, 135, 136, 140, 167, 182, 184, 192, 193, 199, 219 E ethics of war, 239–44, 247, 249, 251, 253–7 extended deterrence, 61, 62, 71, 74, 75 © The Author(s) 2016 J Haaland Matlary, T Heier (eds.), Ukraine and Beyond, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-32530-9 289 290 INDEX F flexible response, 62, 63, 72, 74–6 G George Kennan, 7, 10, 53, 55, 267 green men, 37, 181, 216, 218, 266 H Habermas, J., 18 humanitarian intervention, 11, 13, 37, 40, 55, 89, 211, 212, 224–5 hybrid warfare, 7, 10–12, 29–31, 62, 63, 91, 106, 150 I Ignatenko, 212 imminent attack, 223 influence, 7, 28, 35, 63, 87, 101, 150, 182, 210, 241, 267 influence activity, 182 information, 7, 31, 32, 109, 110, 115, 135, 150, 162, 181–200 International law, 8, 9, 13, 18, 37, 38, 43, 44, 184, 209–28, 243, 247–9, 256 Interpretation of international law, 13, 209–11, 228 intervention, 11, 13, 37, 40, 51, 55, 86, 89, 129–31, 134, 137–43, 153, 161, 186, 192, 210–12, 221–5, 227, 228, 245 invitation, 210, 221–2 Iraq, 13, 23, 32, 107, 112, 120, 129–31, 137–40, 186, 212, 223, 228, 248 J Juncker, J-C., 126 Jurisprudence, 212–15, 244 Jus ad bellum, 245, 246 Jus in bello, 245, 246, 250, 251 just war tradition, 240, 243–5, 251, 255 K Kosovo, 13, 19, 20, 24, 107, 193, 211, 212, 216, 224, 226–8, 248 L Legality, 210, 213, 216, 227 Legitimacy of violence, 241 Libya, 13, 23, 87, 89, 107, 117, 120, 130, 131, 133, 135, 138, 139, 141, 212, 248 limited war, 7, 9, 62, 63, 66–72, 74, 75, 118, 124, 165 The Long Telegram, M Maidan square, 36, 216 Martens clause, 247 massive retaliation, 62–9, 71, 75, 76 media, 5, 12, 28, 32, 53, 110, 135, 150, 154, 165, 181–3, 185–9, 191, 196, 197, 199, 200, 277 moral constraints, 8, 243, 256 moral hazard, 24 N Nationals, 37, 48, 137, 138, 223, 224 National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, 247 native, 138, 210, 211, 214, 225, 228 NATO Strategic Concept, 242 Nikita Khrushchev, 216, 217 INDEX North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 13, 19, 20, 24, 29, 30, 32, 35, 39, 65, 73, 87, 129, 130, 210, 228, 239, 256, 265–79 nuclear, 7, 11, 24, 42, 61, 85, 91, 104, 129, 153 O occupation, 46, 166, 167, 181, 223 Operation Iraqi Freedom, 211 OSCE observers, 224 P Patriarch Kirill, 251–2 peacekeeping, 31, 32, 114, 213, 214 political communication, 12, 182, 184, 192, 197, 199, 200 pre-emption, 223 President Putin, 4, 35, 38, 54, 87–90, 94, 95, 105–11, 120, 124, 181, 186, 187, 196, 198, 200, 210, 212, 217, 240, 272, 274, 275 propaganda, 12, 31, 37, 71, 90, 104, 150, 181–200, 273 proportionality, 13, 218, 246–8, 251, 254 protect, 8, 13, 26, 62, 89, 108, 119, 132, 195, 213, 218–21, 223, 224, 242, 246, 247, 253, 257 R Realpolitik, 5, 8–10, 13, 35–57, 210, 212, 248 referendum, 32, 37, 87, 103, 134, 210, 216, 217, 225–7, 240 Responsibility to Protect (R2P), 89, 224 Russian Military Concept, 213 Russian Military Doctrine, 150, 247, 248 291 Russian Orthodox Church, 184, 194, 249, 251–2, 254 Russian speaking, 37, 134, 136, 184, 197, 211, 220, 224, 274 S self-defence, 55, 86, 213, 216, 220, 222–4, 255 self-determination, 87, 217, 225, 226 social imaginary, 9, 18, 19, 26 social media, 12, 182–4, 186, 187, 189–92, 197, 199, 200 Soviet, 55, 62, 63, 66, 67, 88, 89, 108, 132, 149, 150, 185, 210–12, 251, 253, 271 spiritual security, 249–50 statist, 212, 214, 215, 228 T threat to use military force, 218 Transatlantic Trends survey, 21 Treaty, 65, 108, 118, 132, 151, 214, 269, 273 Turchynov, 216, 224 U use of force, 4, 5, 9–13, 18, 38–40, 46, 50, 85, 154, 212, 213, 215, 217–24, 226–8, 242, 245, 254, 256, 265 V vulnerability, 71, 168, 171, 242, 271, 273, 275–7, 279 Y Yanukovich, 36, 90, 163, 216 .. .Ukraine and Beyond Janne Haaland Matlary • Tormod Heier Editors Ukraine and Beyond Russia’s Strategic Security Challenge to Europe Editors Janne Haaland Matlary University of Oslo Norway Tormod... Russia reacted to the European and US plans of including Ukraine and Georgia in NATO and used military force to stop this, invading the provinces South-Ossietia and Abkhazia in Georgia and later recognising... reconstruction, and development In contrast to NATO, Russia stands forth as a more coherent, organised and dedicated strategic actor Russia’s 14 J HAALAND MATLARY AND T HEIER stakes in Eastern Europe
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