Life Course Research Sophie Hahn The Risk of Downward Mobility in Educational Attainment Children of Higher-Educated Parents in Germany Life Course Research Herausgegeben von Prof Dr Steffen Hillmert, Universität Tübingen Sophie Hahn The Risk of Downward Mobility in Educational Attainment Children of Higher-Educated Parents in Germany With a foreword by Prof Dr Steffen Hillmert Sophie Hahn München, Germany This work has been accepted as dissertation thesis at the University of Bamberg in 2015 The underlying research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (reference number 01JG1059) The author is solely responsible for the content of this publication OnlinePlus material to this book can be available on http://www.springer-vs.de/978-3-658-14598-9 Life Course Research ISBN 978-3-658-14597-2 ISBN 978-3-658-14598-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-658-14598-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016943415 Springer VS © Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2016 This work is subject to copyright All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made Printed on acid-free paper This Springer VS imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH Foreword In recent years, theoretical models of rational educational decisions have become popular among researchers who study social inequalities in education According to these models, inter-generational maintenance of social status plays a central role for the considerations of school students and their parents In particular, the attempt to avoid the loss of status within the family is perceived as a major driving force of specific educational decisions Due to the different positions of families in the inequality structure of society, this rationale tends to lead to origin-specific educational choices and, consequentially, to social reproduction across generations Given its prominence in theory, it is surprising that so far relatively little empirical research in education and social mobility studies has focused on the phenomenon of downward mobility The present work by Sophie Hahn contributes to closing this gap It is based on retrospective data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) and covers various aspects of the topic including developments along the life course, access to higher education via the "detour" of vocational training, and drop out from tertiary education The study demonstrates the relevance of social origin for inter-generational and intra-general downward educational mobility In particular, downward mobility is common in families of higher educated parents Though expectable from a formal perspective, this is a remarkable substantive finding in light of considerable educational expansion in recent decades It might also be relevant to discussions about increasing risks of downward status mobility Children of higher educated parents also have the highest level of mobility within their educational career, i.e., social origin is not only an important determinant of educational attainment but also of educational pathways The message for inequality research is therefore to look not just at selected transitions but whole educational careers This conclusion is in line with the paradigmatic assumptions of life-course research Therefore, Sophie Hahn's book fits perfectly into our series, Life Course Research The series publishes empirical studies – in both English and German – that focus on transitions along the life course in various areas of life I hope many readers will benefit from reading this book Steffen Hillmert Preface This book is a slightly revised version of my dissertation thesis that I handed in at the University of Bamberg in February 2015 First and foremost, I thank my first supervisor, Thorsten Schneider, for being an outstanding mentor He invested a large amount of his time and thought, gave insightful advice and was always available for my questions Also, I thank Sandra Buchholz for writing an elaborate second expert’s report and Steffen Schindler for readily agreeing to be additional assessor in the thesis defense Furthermore, I thank Steffen Hillmert for admitting this book to appear in the series, Life Course Research I learned a lot from these four excellent researchers and their suggestions have improved this book substantially Last but not least, I am very grateful for the comments I received from doctoral fellows of the doctoral programme at the German Institute for International Educational Research (DIPF) and at the colloquia of Thorsten Schneider and Hans-Peter Blossfeld The research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (reference number 01JG1059) The author is solely responsible for the content of this publication Sophie Hahn Contents Figures and tables 13 Introduction: Social mobility perspective and intergenerational downward mobility in educational attainment 17 Research on intergenerational mobility 23 2.1 Research on social mobility and educational inequality 23 2.2 Research on intergenerational downward mobility 33 Theoretical approaches: The life-course perspective and rational-choice-based theories of educational decisions 41 3.1 The life-course perspective 41 3.2 Educational decisions 44 3.2.1 Primary and secondary effects 45 3.2.2 Decision parameters: basic concepts and variations 47 3.2.3 Status maintenance 52 3.2.4 The Mare model of sequential educational decisions 53 3.2.5 Critique of rational choice theory and limitations of rationality 55 3.3 Combining the life-course approach and rational-choice-based theories of educational decisions 58 Data: The sub-study Adult Education and Lifelong Learning of the National Educational Panel Study 61 Empirical analysis 1: Educational downward mobility over time in Germany 63 5.1 Theoretical considerations and hypotheses 63 5.2 Data 67 5.3 Variables 68 5.4 Methods 70 5.5 Results 73 5.5.1 Educational pathways and the education of parents 78 5.5.2 Duration of education by education of parents 81 5.5.3 Development of downward mobility over cohorts 83 5.6 Summary and conclusion on educational downward mobility over time in Germany 86 10 Contents Empirical analysis 2: Re-entering the academic pathway after starting vocational training in Germany 89 6.1 Social selectivity before and after the tertiary education entrance certificate 90 6.2 Theoretical considerations and hypotheses 92 6.2.1 Decreasing effects of social origin at late educational transitions due to growing independence 92 6.2.2 Persisting differences in educational decisions by social origin in adult age 93 6.2.3 Path dependence 95 6.2.4 Age norms and competing life-course roles 96 6.2.5 Opportunity costs and type of vocational training 98 6.2.6 Change in transition probabilities over cohorts 101 6.3 Data 102 6.4 Variables 103 6.4.1 Characteristics of the school career 103 6.4.2 Competing life-course roles 104 6.4.3 Characteristics of the vocational training programme 104 6.5 Methods 105 6.6 Results 106 6.6.1 Selectivity of school leavers with tertiary education entrance certificate choosing vocational training 106 6.6.2 Descriptive results on activities in the first years after obtaining a tertiary education entrance certificate 108 6.6.3 Multivariate results 111 6.7 Summary and conclusion on re-entering the academic pathway after starting vocational training in Germany 116 Empirical analysis 3: Access to tertiary education and dropout in Germany 121 7.1 Selection processes prior to tertiary education in the German education system 122 7.2 Descriptive results on access to tertiary education 124 7.3 Theoretical considerations and hypotheses on dropout from tertiary education 127 7.3.1 Mechanisms linking pre-tertiary pathways and dropout from higher education 127 7.3.2 The role of social origins 131 7.3.3 The role of time 132 7.4 Data 133 7.5 Sample, variables and methods of the analysis on dropout from tertiary education 133 7.6 Results on dropout from tertiary education 136 7.6.1 Descriptive results of dropout from tertiary education 136 7.6.2 Multivariate results 140 7.7 Summary and conclusion on access to tertiary education and dropout in Germany 150 Contents 11 Intergenerational downward mobility in educational attainment in Germany: Summary of the main results and conclusions 157 8.1 Summary of the main results 157 8.2 Limitations of the present study 162 8.3 Conclusions on the utility of studying downward mobility for sociological research 163 8.4 How the findings connect to previous and future research? 166 References 171 Appendix A 189 Appendix B 191 Appendix C 193 Appendix D 195 Figures and Tables Figure 2.1 Figure 5.1 Figure 5.2 Figure 5.3 Figure 5.4 Figure 5.5 Figure 6.1 The OED Triangle 26 Educational attainment by education of the parents 73 Sequence index plots of educational pathways I 75 Sequence index plots of educational pathways II 76 Educational pathways by education of parents 79 Mean durations of education by education of parents 81 Sequence index plots of activities years after obtaining a tertiary education entrance certificate by parental education 109 Figure 6.2 Survivor functions for entry into tertiary education after tertiary education entrance certificate and first vocational training 111 Figure 7.1 Flow chart showing educational pathways with percentages 125 Figure 7.2 Proportion functions of dropout and graduation from higher education at universities based on survivor functions (Kaplan–Meier method) 139 Figure 7.3 Proportion functions of dropout and graduation from higher education at universities of applied sciences, based on survivor functions (Kaplan–Meier method) 139 Figure A.1 The German education system 189 Figure D.1 Sequence index plots of pathways of students who enter tertiary education 196 For multi-coloured versions of these figures please visit the website of this book at www.springer.com Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 4.1 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Ideal typical outflow table from origin class to destination class 24 Ideal typical inflow table from origin class to destination class 24 Overview of samples and survey instruments for NEPS starting cohort 62 Types of educational pathway 78 Percentages of types of pathway by education of parents and cohorts 80 Linear regression of mean duration in education 83 Logistic regression of reaching a tertiary degree over cohorts (odds ratios) 85 Standardized mean grade point averages of the tertiary education entrance certificate in different categories of post-secondary activities by education of parents 108 Post-secondary education of persons with tertiary education entrance certificate by education of the parents 110 201 Appendix D Model Model Model Model x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Vocational qualification x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b 0.38* [0.15] 0.03 [0.18] Model 0.43 [0.48] -0.17 [0.38] 0.18 [0.24] ref Model 0.32 [0.48] -0.07 [0.38] 0.23 [0.24] ref 0.50 [0.38] 0.53 [0.46] 0.27 [0.37] 0.43 [0.38] 0.41 [0.46] 0.04 [0.37] Notes HE = higher education Standard errors in brackets + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 1,704; number of events (dropouts): 289 Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations 202 Table D.6 Appendix D Piecewise constant exponential models on dropout from universities within years of starting tertiary studies – including effects of the duration at the Gymnasium Year Year Year 3–4 Year 5–8 Women Entry year Entry year sq Change of HE inst General HE entrance cert Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Parents: CASMIN 2c Parents: CASMIN 3a/b GPA of highest school cert Model -8.85+ [4.87] -8.53+ [4.87] -9.26+ [4.88] -9.02+ [4.89] 0.24* [0.12] 0.07 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.24 [0.45] 0.42 [0.31] ref -0.09 [0.17] 0.25 [0.19] -0.12 [0.16] -0.58** [0.07] -0.05+ [0.03] Model -8.98+ [4.85] -8.67+ [4.85] -9.39+ [4.86] -9.15+ [4.87] 0.29* [0.12] 0.03 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.21 [0.45] 0.57+ [0.32] ref -0.07 [0.17] 0.24 [0.19] -0.11 [0.15] -0.57** [0.07] 0.08** [0.02] -0.05 [0.03] -0.18 [0.18] 0.35* [0.15] ref -0.12 [0.18] 0.01 [0.18] ref Age at enrolment Duration of Gymn at lower sec x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Gymn at upper sec Vocational qualification x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Model -9.06+ [4.89] -8.76+ [4.89] -9.51+ [4.89] -9.27+ [4.90] 0.18 [0.12] 0.08 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.13 [0.45] 0.23 [0.31] ref -0.44 [0.36] -0.16 [0.44] -0.05 [0.33] Model -8.71+ [4.88] -8.39+ [4.88] -9.12+ [4.88] -8.88+ [4.90] 0.24* [0.12] 0.07 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.22 [0.45] 0.41 [0.31] ref -0.34 [0.36] 0.05 [0.43] 0.04 [0.33] -0.58** [0.07] -0.04 [0.04] ref 0.03 [0.07] 0.04 [0.08] -0.06 [0.06] -0.21 [0.18] 0.13 [0.25] ref -0.05 [0.04] ref 0.03 [0.07] 0.02 [0.08] -0.04 [0.06] -0.19 [0.18] 0.19 [0.25] ref 203 Appendix D Model x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Notes GPA = grade point average; HE = higher education Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations Standard errors in brackets +p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 1,704; number of events (dropouts): 289 Model Model 0.55 [0.38] 0.45 [0.46] 0.24 [0.38] Model 0.49 [0.38] 0.35 [0.46] 0.04 [0.37] 204 Table D.7 Appendix D Piecewise constant exponential models on dropout from universities within years of starting tertiary studies – including effects of educational pathways Year Year Year 3–4 Year 5–8 Women Entry year Entry year sq Change of HE inst General HE entrance cert Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Parents: CASMIN 2c Parents: CASMIN 3a/b GPA of highest school cert Model -8.76+ [4.86] -8.44+ [4.86] -9.17+ [4.87] -8.93+ [4.88] 0.23+ [0.12] 0.06 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.23 [0.45] 0.28 [0.31] ref -0.09 [0.17] 0.24 [0.19] -0.14 [0.15] -0.59** [0.07] Model -8.96+ [4.84] -8.64+ [4.84] -9.37+ [4.85] -9.13+ [4.86] 0.28* [0.12] 0.02 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.21 [0.45] 0.45 [0.32] ref -0.06 [0.17] 0.23 [0.19] -0.12 [0.15] -0.57** [0.07] In year In year In year 3–4 In year 5–8 Age at enrolment Pathway Pathway In year 1–2 In year 3–8 ref 0.50** [0.18] 0.09** [0.02] ref 0.16 [0.21] Model -8.85+ [4.86] -8.48+ [4.86] -9.23+ [4.87] -8.97+ [4.88] 0.24+ [0.12] 0.06 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.26 [0.45] 0.31 [0.31] ref -0.08 [0.17] 0.24 [0.19] -0.13 [0.15] Model 10 -9.06+ [4.84] -8.70+ [4.84] -9.44+ [4.85] -9.17+ [4.86] 0.29* [0.12] 0.02 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.23 [0.45] 0.48 [0.32] ref -0.06 [0.17] 0.23 [0.19] -0.12 [0.15] -0.62** [0.15] -0.45** [0.13] -0.69** [0.15] -0.62** [0.13] ref -0.61** [0.15] -0.43** [0.13] -0.67** [0.15] -0.58** [0.13] 0.09** [0.02] ref 0.66** [0.23] 0.29 [0.27] 0.32 [0.26] -0.04 [0.29] 205 Appendix D Pathway Model 0.45* [0.18] Model 0.41* [0.18] In year 1–2 In year 3–8 Pathway In year 1–2 In year 3–8 0.63** [0.21] Model Model 10 0.64** [0.24] 0.25 [0.27] 0.60* [0.24] 0.20 [0.27] 0.39 [0.31] 0.85** [0.27] -0.05 [0.34] 0.41 [0.30] 0.19 [0.25] Notes GPA = grade point average; HE = higher education Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations Standard errors in brackets + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 1,704; number of events (dropouts): 289 Due to low numbers of events per pathway in each single time period, Models and 10 include constraints for educational pathways indicating that the effect for the first year equals the effect for the second year and the effect for the third and fourth year equals the effect for the fifth to eighth year 206 Table D.8 Appendix D Piecewise constant exponential models on dropout from universities within years of starting tertiary studies – including fields of study Year Year Year 3–4 Year 5–8 Women Entry year Entry year sq Change of HE inst General HE entrance cert med Teacher training Humanities/Arts Natural sciences/ Mathematics Engineering Law Business/Economics Other Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Parents: CASMIN 2c Parents: CASMIN 3a/b GPA of highest school cert Model -11.28* [5.01] -10.97* [5.01] -11.72* [5.01] -11.50* [5.02] 0.24+ [0.13] 0.11 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.10 [0.46] -0.19 [0.29] ref 0.78* [0.32] 1.29** [0.31] 1.08** Model -10.81* [4.97] -10.49* [4.97] -11.22* [4.97] -11.01* [4.99] 0.29* [0.13] 0.10 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.17 [0.46] -0.05 [0.29] ref 0.51 [0.33] 1.00** [0.33] 0.96** Model -8.98+ [4.97] -8.65+ [4.97] -9.38+ [4.98] -9.15+ [4.99] 0.29* [0.13] 0.05 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.15 [0.46] 0.35 [0.31] ref 0.57+ [0.34] 1.05** [0.33] 1.02** Model -8.99+ [4.92] -8.66+ [4.92] -9.38+ [4.93] -9.15+ [4.94] 0.37** [0.13] -0.01 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.14 [0.46] 0.60+ [0.32] ref 0.64+ [0.34] 1.13** [0.33] 1.14** Model -8.87+ [4.99] -8.55+ [4.99] -9.27+ [4.99] -9.05+ [5.01] 0.29* [0.13] 0.05 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.13 [0.46] 0.34 [0.31] ref 0.57+ [0.34] 1.06** [0.33] 1.01** Model -8.93+ [4.94] -8.60+ [4.94] -9.32+ [4.94] -9.08+ [4.95] 0.38** [0.13] -0.01 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] -0.13 [0.46] 0.58+ [0.32] ref 0.65+ [0.34] 1.15** [0.33] 1.15** [0.32] 0.87* [0.34] 1.29** [0.35] 1.34** [0.31] 0.69+ [0.38] ref -0.22 [0.17] 0.13 [0.19] -0.40** [0.15] [0.33] 0.70+ [0.36] 1.00** [0.36] 1.08** [0.33] 0.45 [0.40] ref -0.14 [0.17] 0.19 [0.19] -0.25 [0.15] -0.56** [0.07] [0.33] 0.75* [0.36] 1.13** [0.37] 1.03** [0.33] 0.47 [0.40] ref -0.08 [0.17] 0.27 [0.19] -0.13 [0.16] -0.57** [0.07] [0.33] 0.92* [0.36] 1.25** [0.37] 1.21** [0.33] 0.54 [0.40] ref -0.04 [0.17] 0.25 [0.19] -0.11 [0.16] -0.55** [0.07] [0.34] 0.75* [0.36] 1.12** [0.37] 1.03** [0.33] 0.44 [0.40] ref -0.19 [0.36] -0.10 [0.47] -0.13 [0.36] -0.57** [0.07] [0.34] 0.93* [0.36] 1.26** [0.37] 1.21** [0.33] 0.52 [0.40] ref -0.14 [0.36] -0.16 [0.48] -0.11 [0.36] -0.55** [0.07] 207 Appendix D Model Model Model Age at enrolment Gymn at lower sec -0.37* [0.15] Model 0.11** [0.02] -0.31* [0.15] x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Vocational qualification x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Notes GPA = grade point average; HE = higher education Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations Standard errors in brackets + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 1,704; number of events (dropouts): 289 0.39* [0.15] -0.05 [0.19] Model -0.40+ [0.23] ref Model 0.11** [0.02] -0.34 [0.23] ref -0.02 [0.38] 0.34 [0.48] -0.01 [0.38] 0.24 [0.25] ref -0.05 [0.38] 0.43 [0.49] -0.00 [0.38] -0.21 [0.27] ref 0.43 [0.38] 0.41 [0.46] -0.01 [0.37] 0.50 [0.38] 0.33 [0.47] -0.03 [0.38] 208 Table D.9 Appendix D Piecewise constant exponential models on dropout from universities of applied sciences within years of starting tertiary studies – including all covariates Year Year Year 3–4 Year 5–8 Women Entry year Entry year sq General HE entrance cert Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Parents: CASMIN 2c Parents: CASMIN 3a/b GPA of highest school cert Model -8.51 [7.22] -8.74 [7.22] -9.11 [7.23] -8.40 [7.25] -0.29 [0.21] 0.06 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.30 [0.20] ref -0.23 [0.27] 0.23 [0.32] 0.08 [0.25] Model -8.96 [7.32] -9.16 [7.33] -9.52 [7.34] -8.89 [7.35] -0.20 [0.21] 0.07 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.47* [0.20] ref -0.20 [0.27] 0.21 [0.33] -0.01 [0.24] -0.73** [0.13] Model -9.61 [7.41] -9.81 [7.41] -10.17 [7.42] -9.55 [7.44] -0.21 [0.21] 0.09 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.50* [0.23] ref -0.18 [0.27] 0.28 [0.33] 0.03 [0.25] -0.73** [0.13] -0.29 [0.23] Model -9.61 [7.41] -9.81 [7.42] -10.17 [7.43] -9.55 [7.44] -0.21 [0.21] 0.09 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.50* [0.23] ref -0.18 [0.27] 0.28 [0.33] 0.03 [0.25] -0.73** [0.13] -0.00 [0.03] -0.29 [0.23] -0.34 [0.22] -0.34 [0.24] Age at enrolment Gymn at lower sec x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Vocational qualification x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Model -9.20 [7.32] -9.43 [7.33] -9.80 [7.34] -9.11 [7.35] -0.33 [0.22] 0.08 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.32 [0.23] ref -0.40 [0.57] 0.91 [0.65] 0.11 [0.51] Model -9.08 [7.45] -9.29 [7.45] -9.63 [7.46] -9.02 [7.47] -0.25 [0.22] 0.08 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.51* [0.23] ref -0.56 [0.56] 1.21+ [0.69] -0.10 [0.51] -0.75** [0.13] -0.36 [0.33] ref 0.71 [0.60] -0.69 [0.74] 0.02 [0.54] -0.25 [0.30] ref -0.31 [0.58] -0.38 [0.33] ref 0.85 [0.60] -0.98 [0.77] 0.10 [0.54] -0.33 [0.30] ref -0.11 [0.58] 209 Appendix D Model Model x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Notes GPA = grade point average; HE = higher education Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations Standard errors in brackets + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 863; number of events (dropouts): 113 Model Model Model -0.52 [0.71] 0.11 [0.52] Model -0.80 [0.75] 0.23 [0.52] 210 Appendix D Table D.10 Piecewise constant exponential models on dropout from universities of applied sciences within years of starting tertiary studies – including the effect of the duration at Gymnasium Year Year Year 3–4 Year 5–8 Women Entry year Entry year sq General HE entrance cert Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Parents: CASMIN 2c Parents: CASMIN 3a/b GPA of highest school cert Model -8.51 [7.22] -8.74 [7.22] -9.11 [7.23] -8.40 [7.25] -0.29 [0.21] 0.06 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.30 [0.20] ref -0.23 [0.27] 0.23 [0.32] 0.08 [0.25] Model -8.96 [7.32] -9.16 [7.33] -9.52 [7.34] -8.89 [7.35] -0.20 [0.21] 0.07 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.47* [0.20] ref -0.20 [0.27] 0.21 [0.33] -0.01 [0.24] -0.73** [0.13] Model -9.96 [7.42] -10.17 [7.43] -10.52 [7.44] -9.90 [7.45] -0.22 [0.21] 0.10 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.46+ [0.24] ref -0.20 [0.27] 0.21 [0.33] -0.03 [0.25] -0.75** [0.13] Model -9.06 [7.27] -9.28 [7.28] -9.65 [7.29] -8.96 [7.30] -0.34 [0.22] 0.08 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.36 [0.25] ref -0.76 [0.60] 0.87 [0.63] 0.10 [0.51] Model -9.36 [7.38] -9.57 [7.39] -9.91 [7.40] -9.30 [7.41] -0.26 [0.22] 0.08 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.46+ [0.25] ref -0.88 [0.60] 1.21+ [0.67] -0.09 [0.50] -0.77** [0.13] -0.00 Model -9.96 [7.43] -10.16 [7.43] -10.51 [7.44] -9.90 [7.45] -0.22 [0.21] 0.10 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.46+ [0.24] ref -0.20 [0.27] 0.21 [0.33] -0.02 [0.25] -0.75** [0.13] 0.00 [0.03] -0.00 -0.04 -0.03 [0.05] [0.05] -0.26 [0.28] -0.33 [0.22] -0.27 [0.28] -0.33 [0.24] [0.07] 0.20+ [0.11] -0.15 [0.14] -0.01 [0.10] 0.01 [0.28] -0.23 [0.31] ref -0.15 [0.58] [0.07] 0.22* [0.11] -0.22 [0.15] 0.01 [0.10] -0.24 [0.28] -0.32 [0.31] ref 0.05 [0.58] Age at enrolment Duration of Gymn at lower sec x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Gymn at upper sec Vocational qualification x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b 211 Appendix D Model x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Model Model Model Model -0.50 [0.71] 0.10 [0.53] Model -0.89 [0.75] 0.18 [0.52] Notes GPA = grade point average; HE = higher education Standard errors in brackets + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 863; number of events (dropouts): 113 Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations 212 Appendix D Table D.11 Piecewise constant exponential models on dropout from universities of applied sciences within years of starting tertiary studies – including effects of educational pathways Year Year Year 3–4 Year 5–-8 Women Entry year Entry year sq General HE entrance cert Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Parents: CASMIN 2c Parents: CASMIN 3a/b GPA of highest school cert Model -10.70 [7.40] -10.90 [7.41] -11.25 [7.42] -10.63 [7.43] -0.20 [0.21] 0.11 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.52* [0.22] ref -0.19 [0.27] 0.31 [0.33] 0.05 [0.25] -0.73** [0.13] Model -8.89+ [4.84] -8.57+ [4.84] -9.30+ [4.85] -9.06+ [4.86] 0.28* [0.12] 0.02 [0.11] -0.00 [0.00] 0.45 [0.32] ref -0.06 [0.17] 0.23 [0.19] -0.12 [0.15] -0.57** [0.07] In year In year In year 3–4 In year 5–8 Age at enrolment Pathway Pathway In year 1–2 In year 3–8 ref 0.15 [0.30] 0.09** [0.02] ref 0.16 [0.21] Model -9.81 [7.43] -10.06 [7.43] -10.56 [7.45] -9.80 [7.46] -0.20 [0.21] 0.09 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.50* [0.23] ref -0.19 [0.27] 0.31 [0.33] 0.05 [0.25] Model 10 -9.80 [7.43] -10.05 [7.43] -10.55 [7.45] -9.79 [7.46] -0.20 [0.21] 0.09 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.50* [0.23] ref -0.19 [0.27] 0.31 [0.33] 0.05 [0.25] -0.82** [0.22] -0.92** [0.25] -0.73** [0.25] -0.37 [0.28] ref -0.82** [0.22] -0.92** [0.26] -0.73** [0.25] -0.36 [0.28] 0.00 [0.03] ref -0.03 [0.39] 0.35 [0.46] -0.03 [0.40] 0.35 [0.47] 213 Appendix D Pathway Model 0.71* [0.29] Model 0.41* [0.18] In year 1–2 In year 3–8 Pathway -0.01 [0.29] In year 1–2 In year 3–8 Model Model 10 0.70* [0.36] 0.66 [0.46] 0.70* [0.36] 0.66 [0.46] -0.24 [0.36] 0.28 [0.40] -0.24 [0.37] 0.27 [0.41] 0.19 [0.25] Notes GPA = grade point average; HE = higher education Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations Standard errors in brackets + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 863; number of events (dropouts): 113 Due to low numbers of events in each single time period, Models and 10 include constraints for educational pathways indicating that the effect for the first year equals the effect for the second year and the effect for the third and fourth year equals the effect for the fifth to eighth year 214 Appendix D Table D.12 Piecewise constant exponential models on dropout from universities of applied sciences within years of starting tertiary studies – including fields of study Year Year Year 3–4 Year 5–8 Women Entry year Entry year sq General HE entrance cert Business science Social work/Pedagogics Other Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c Parents: CASMIN 2a/b Parents: CASMIN 2c Parents: CASMIN 3a/b GPA of highest school cert Model -8.15 [7.20] -8.38 [7.21] -8.74 [7.22] -8.04 [7.23] -0.23 [0.23] 0.05 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.28 [0.20] 0.19 [0.27] -0.34 [0.35] 0.02 [0.24] ref -0.21 [0.27] 0.23 [0.33] 0.10 [0.25] Model -8.11 [7.34] -8.31 [7.34] -8.66 [7.35] -8.04 [7.36] -0.15 [0.23] 0.05 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.46* [0.20] 0.15 [0.27] -0.38 [0.34] 0.09 [0.24] ref -0.21 [0.27] 0.20 [0.33] -0.01 [0.24] -0.74** Model -8.96 [7.44] -9.16 [7.45] -9.52 [7.46] -8.91 [7.47] -0.16 [0.23] 0.08 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.46* [0.23] 0.26 [0.28] -0.37 [0.34] 0.09 [0.24] ref -0.17 [0.28] 0.29 [0.33] 0.04 [0.25] -0.74** Model -8.83 [7.45] -9.03 [7.45] -9.38 [7.46] -8.77 [7.48] -0.16 [0.23] 0.07 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.46* [0.23] 0.27 [0.28] -0.39 [0.35] 0.09 [0.24] ref -0.16 [0.28] 0.29 [0.33] 0.05 [0.25] -0.74** [0.13] [0.13] [0.13] 0.01 [0.04] -0.34 [0.23] Age at enrolment Gymn at lower sec x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c -0.33 [0.23] Model -9.12 [7.32] -9.35 [7.32] -9.71 [7.33] -9.02 [7.35] -0.28 [0.23] 0.08 [0.16] -0.00 [0.00] -0.29 [0.23] 0.32 [0.28] -0.32 [0.35] 0.01 [0.24] ref -0.37 [0.57] 0.95 [0.65] 0.11 [0.51] Model -8.58 [7.48] -8.78 [7.48] -9.12 [7.50] -8.52 [7.51] -0.21 [0.23] 0.07 [0.17] -0.00 [0.00] -0.47* [0.23] 0.29 [0.28] -0.37 [0.34] 0.07 [0.25] ref -0.53 [0.56] 1.19+ [0.69] -0.09 [0.51] -0.76** [0.13] -0.39 [0.33] ref -0.44 [0.33] ref 0.72 [0.61] -0.72 [0.74] 0.87 [0.60] -0.90 [0.77] 215 Appendix D Model Model Model Model x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Vocational qualification x Parents: CASMIN 1a/b/c x Parents: CASMIN 2a/b x Parents: CASMIN 2c x Parents: CASMIN 3a/b Notes GPA = grade point average; HE = higher education Source: NEPS: SC6: 1.0.0; own calculations Standard errors in brackets + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Number of persons: 863; number of events (dropouts): 113 -0.37+ [0.22] -0.40+ [0.24] Model 0.05 [0.54] -0.29 [0.30] ref Model 0.12 [0.54] -0.35 [0.30] ref -0.32 [0.58] -0.54 [0.70] 0.14 [0.51] -0.15 [0.57] -0.82 [0.74] 0.24 [0.52] ... origin have of achieving a certain destination class rather than another It is measured as the ratio of the odds of reaching one class destination rather than another among persons of one origin... 1993) The starting point of these analyses is the question whether social inequalities in education have declined in different countries over the course of the 20th century In favour of decreasing... increase in three, and a decline in four These findings supported the hypothesis of maximally maintained inequality In the case of actual or near saturation (eligibility to tertiary education of 80