The foundations of economic statistics

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Macroeconomics for Public Policy The Foundations of Economic Statistics Tran Lam Anh Duong 5-6 February 2018 The Gross Product • Definition of Gross Product : The total value of all final goods and services produced within a country, that is, the production of the whole country • Definition of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) GDP is a statistic index used to measure gross product from available data GDP • We assume that there is one type of good in the economy Total amount of newly produced goods which is traded in the country’s market during a given period We only take into account newly produced goods Targeting goods are trading goods in the market GDP • There are several types of goods and services  How to add up different goods and services?  Example 1: Country X produced 100 hamburgers, 100-liter Oolong Tea, and 100-kilogram potato in one year ⇒ The measure of unit is different ⇒ It is impossible to the addition  Example 2: Country A produced 1-ton scrap iron and 100-ton gold bar last year Country B produced 100-ton scrap iron and 1-ton gold bar last year ⇒ The sum of production is 101 tons for both countries ⇒ However, the values of scrap iron and gold bar are different GDP • Let’s refine the definition of GDP GDP is the sum of market value of the newly produced goods and services in the economy during a given period Nominal GDP • Nominal:The meaning of “Evaluation based on the unit of currency” • 𝑁𝑁 types of goods 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌 𝑡𝑡 ′ 𝑠𝑠 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 = 𝑃𝑃1𝑡𝑡 𝑄𝑄1𝑡𝑡 + 𝑃𝑃2𝑡𝑡 𝑄𝑄2𝑡𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝑃𝑃𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡 𝑄𝑄𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡  𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑡𝑡 : 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 𝑡𝑡 𝑖𝑖 = 1,2, ⋯ , 𝑁𝑁  𝑄𝑄𝑖𝑖𝑡𝑡 : 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 𝑡𝑡 Nominal GDP • The set of example 1: Hamburger Price (𝑷𝑷) 200 yen per one unit Production (𝑸𝑸) 100 units Oolong Tea 300 yen per liter 100 liters Potato 400 yen per kilogram 100 kilograms ⇒ The nominal GDP of country X is 200 × 100 + 300 × 100 + 400 × 100 = 90,000 𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 Nominal GDP • The set of example 2: Price (𝑷𝑷) ⇒ Scrap iron 1 yen per ton Gold bar 100 million yen per ton A’s production (𝑸𝑸𝑨𝑨 ) B’s production (𝑸𝑸𝑩𝑩 ) 100 tons 1 ton 1 ton 100 tons Country A’s nominal GDP=10 billion and yen Country B’s nominal GDP=0.1 billion and 100 yen ⇒ Country A produced many goods with high market values, thus the nominal GDP is high Nominal GDP • Problem point: take example Case 1: the price from 𝒕𝒕 to 𝒕𝒕 + 𝟏𝟏 is unchanged  Case 2: the price from 𝒕𝒕 to 𝒕𝒕 + 𝟏𝟏 increases by twice and the production is unchanged and the production increases by twice Price Production Production of year 𝒕𝒕 of year 𝒕𝒕 + 𝟏𝟏 Hamburger 200 yen 100 200 Hamburger Oolong Tea 300 yen 100l 200l Potato 400 yen 100kg 200kg ⇒ Nominal GDP of 𝒕𝒕 + 𝟏𝟏: 200 × 200 + 300 × 200 + 400 × 200 = 180,000 𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 Price of year 𝒕𝒕 Price of Production year 𝒕𝒕 + 𝟏𝟏 200 yen 400 yen 100 Oolong Tea 300 yen 600 yen 100l Potato 400 yen 800 yen 100kg ⇒ Nominal GDP of 𝒕𝒕 + 𝟏𝟏: 400 × 100 + 600 × 100 + 800 × 100 = 180,000 𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 ⇒Nominal GDP is a measurement that reflects the change of the price, but doesn’t reflect the production Real GDP • Real: The meaning of “Evaluation based on the unit of goods” • Base year: We can freely choose a base year, but usually that year is convenient to be "a base" • The unit price of goods and services used to calculate the real GDP in year 𝒕𝒕 is not the price in year 𝒕𝒕 , but the price of base year Real GDP in year 𝒕𝒕 = 𝑃𝑃1base 𝑄𝑄1𝑡𝑡 + 𝑃𝑃2base 𝑄𝑄2𝑡𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝑃𝑃𝑁𝑁base 𝑄𝑄𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁  The price of 𝑖𝑖-th good in the base year: 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖base Remark: To calculate real indicators in other years, we use the same unit price of the base year 10 Other statistics about price level • The advantage and disadvantage of GDP deflator:  Advantage: The cover of the scale is pretty large  Disadvantage: ① It takes time to get the result ② Quarterly statistics ⇒ We cannot answer the question about the price index of last month • Other statistics about price level: ① “Consumer Price Index”, (CPI, monthly statistics): calculated by the average price of consumption of goods and services ② “Corporate Good Price Index”, (CGPI, monthly statistics): The average price of goods traded between firms 37 Price Index • Paasche index: Paasche index for current year ∑ current yearʹs production × current yearʹs price = ∑ current yearʹs production × base yearʹs price  Paasche index: price index calculated in terms of the production of current year • Laspeyres index: Laspeyres index for current year ∑ base yearʹs production × current yearʹs price = ∑ base yearʹs production × base yearʹs price  Laspeyres index: price index calculated in terms of the production of base year • Comparison of these two types of price index 38 The influence of import price on GDP deflator • Question: If the import price raises, what is the influence on domestic price? • Hint: Nominal GDE = Price of consumption goods × Consumption volume + Price of equipment investment goods × Equipment investment volume + Export price × Export volume - Import Price × Import volume 39 Inflation rate • Inflation rate: the increasing rate of price level • Calculation: The price level in year 𝑡𝑡: 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 The price level in year 𝑡𝑡 + 1: 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡+1 The inflation rate from 𝑡𝑡 to 𝑡𝑡 + 1: 𝜋𝜋 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡+1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 × 100 𝜋𝜋 = 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 Vietnamese CPI 102 101.5 101 100.5 100 99.5 99 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Source: Vietnam GSO Inflation: inflation rate is positive Deflation: inflation rate is negative 40 Labor statistics money Household money labor Goods & services Good market Labor market labor Goods & services money Firm money 41 Labor conditions • Categories of Labor conditions: Population Own Business Under the age of 15 Employed Family Member’s Business Labor force Paid Employees Age 15 and older (54.4m) Unemployed (40.4 k) (71.5m) Not labor force Source: Vietnam GSO Source: Ministry of Public Management「Labor Survey」, March, 2014 42 Labor conditions • Categories of employed people:  Own business: Person who runs his own business  Family member’s business: Person who is working for family business  Employees: Person who is hired and paid by firms • Labor survey:  GSO does survey quarterly  The survey aims for age 15 and older people living in Vietnam The survey is about the employment time, field, job features and so on 43 Unemployment rate • Problems of unemployment:  Personally, individual has no salary, cannot utilize his/her ability, and loses the opportunity to connect with society  Socially, the labor resource cannot be used effectively • Unemployed people: Definition: People who is hunting for a job Conditions for statistics: Person who did not work, or at least during the investigation period has no work If there is a suitable work, he/she will be eager to take it immediately During the investigation period, he is hunting for a job, or preparing to start his own business 44 Unemployment rate • Definition: The percentage of completely unemployment in the labor force  Equation No of Unemployed × 100 Unemployment Rate = Labor Force No of Unemployed × 100 = No of Unemployed + No of Employed  What is the meaning of labor force?  What happens when unemployment rate is high? • Data  Vietnamese unemployment rate in the 3rd quarter in 2016= 1.2 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 54.4 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 × 100 = 2.21% 45 0.5 0 Source: WDI 2013 2010 2007 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 1977 1974 1971 1968 1965 1962 Vietnam unemployment rate 1959 1956 1.5 % 3.5 1953 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemployment rate Japanese unemployment rate 2.5 Year 46 Jobs-to-applicants ratio • Definition: The number of employer to one unit of job hunter  Job hunter: Labor who is seeking for the job  Employer: The company who has vacancy job The number of employer Jobs−to−applicants ratio: = The number of job hunter  If the jobs-to-applicants ratio is greater than 1, then it will be easy for labor to find a job  Vietnamese jobs-to-applicants ratio in the 3rd quarter in 2016 is 75.1% 47 Working hours • Why we have to consider working hours: ① Even doing the same job, working hours are different across employees ⇒ The productivity is different ⇒ “Length of working time” is a necessary index to measure the labor resource in the whole economy ② “Length of working time” has high correlation with people’s lives • The statistics of working time investigation: surveys to firms and surveys to workers ⇒ The numbers are quite different ⇒ Unpaid overtime work 48 Working hours Working hours Source: Kuroda (2010) 49 Wage • The measure of the compensation of labor Monthly salary: paid salary for every month Ex: the salary of formal employee Hourly payment: The monthly salary divided by the working hours in the month ← microeconomics pays attention to this hourly payment Average income of employed workers in State sector 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2005 2009 TOTAL 2010 2011 2012 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2013 2014 Prel 2015 Manufacturing Source: Vietnam GSO Unit: thousand VND 50 Real wage • Japanese nominal wage in 1970: 406 yen ⇒ One sixth of current salary ⇒ Was the living standard one sixth of current level? • Real wage: The measure of purchasing power Nominal wage Real wage = Price Level ※Purchasing power: the ability of purchasing goods and services for every unit of currency • Real wage index: based on one certain year Real wage index current year Nominal wage (current year) Nominal wagebase year = ữ ì 100 Price Index(current year Price Index(base year) 51 ... 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