Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)

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Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt)Quan hệ kinh tế của Trung Quốc với Lào từ năm 1989 đến nay và hàm ý cho Việt Nam (tt) VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES - LE THI HUONG TRA CHINA – LAOS ECONOMIC RELATIONS FROM 1989 TO PRESENT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM Major: International Economics Code: 31 01 06 SUMMARY OF THE PHD’S DISSERTATION HANOI – 2018 Dissertation is completed at: GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES SUPERVISORS: Prof Dr Nguyen Duy Dung Dr Nguyen Xuan Cuong Reviewer 1: Prof Dr Ngo Duy Ngo Reviewer 2: Prof Dr Doan Xuan Thuy Reviewer 3: Prof Dr Phi Manh Hong The dissertation will be defended in front of the Committee at Graduate Academy of Social Sciences, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, 477 Nguyễn Trãi Street, Thanh Xuân District, Hanoi On / / 2018 The Dissertation can be found at: - Vietnam National Library - Graduate Academy of Social Sciences’ Library INTRODUCTION Rationale of the dissertation In term of economic geography, Laos is located in an important and strategic location with China: Laos is the only landlocked country in the center of Mainland Southeast Asia, bordered by Yunnan Province of China – an important province in ”The Great Western Development Strategy” – to the North, Myanmar to the Northwest, Thailand to the West, Cambodia to the South and Vietnam to the East Thanks to such strategic location, Laos plays a essential role as an important “gateway” in Beijing's Regional Strategy Currently, in a near future, Laos may become a competitive area which has significant influences to strategies of various powerful countries, especially in the context that China has been developing global and national strategies such as establishment of a powerful maritime nation, or cooperation initiatives such as “One Belt, One Road” (the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road), etc In term of economy, Laos plays an important part in China – Southeast Asia connection strategy because it is located in the East-West Economic Corridor of countries of the Mekong Subregion and the NorthSouth Economic Corridor Laos is also a member of Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Cooperation Program Currently, Laos has operated its economy in Nanning–Singapore economic corridor under management of China in which a cross-border rail has been designed to connect Kunming (Yunnan, China) with Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Singapore by crossing Yuqi, Mengzi and Hekou City Between the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Socialist Republic of Vietnam, there has been existed a “special”, closed and very fast relations since Two Wars of Resistance against French Colonialism and American Imperialism The comprehanesive relations between two nations has been enhanced through every historical duration However, in current internationalization and globalization, both countries have to be active in the socio-economic development, as well as diversification and multilateralization of their own economic relations Thus, in specific case, due to different calculation of countries in the economic sector, the bilateral economic relations is also influenced Especially, with the clearer and clearer existence of the “Chinese economic factor” in both Laos and Vietnam, the Vietnam – Laos relations has been significantly affected The strong increase of “Chinese economic factor” in Laos has been put more presure on Vietnam economic factor in Laos, even dislodged Vietnam economic factor from Laos It is considered as a risk of Vietnam because the“Chinese economic factor” may cause impacts to other factors in the Vietnam – Laos relations Therefore, a comprehensive and systematic study on China – Laos relations will contribute a significant part in determination of the Vietnam – Laos relations As a result, this study bring a practical value in current period Besides, researches related to China – Laos relations currently have been gained interest from inland scholars The study on these two nations in general and China – Laos relations in particular, however, aims to explain various important academic issues If we can thoroughly understand this relations , our Communist Party and Government will have scientific basis to make diplomatic policies in conformity to current complex situations Thus, comprehensive and systematic study on specific relation between China – Laos relations and Vietnam has currently become one of the most urgent issues The strong impacts to Laos, especially in the economic sector caused by China has been leading to influences to Vietnam In spite of high demand on consciousness, there was a shortage of systematic and advanced studies Therefore, the study on China – Laos relations and clarification of impacts caused to Vietnam brings both scientific and practical value, as well as high imperiousness By such consciousness, I decided to conduct my PhD dissertation with the official title “China – Laos Economic Relations from 1989 to Present and Its Implications for Vietnam” Aims and the Mission of the dissertation 2.1 Aims of the dissertation On the basis of systematic presentation, analysis and evaluation of China – Laos relations from 1989 until now, the Thesis shows sucesses and matters of this economic relation, as well as clarify nature and features of the economic relation between aforementioned nations Then, the Thesis states influences caused to Vietnam and proposes some solutions to help Vietnam adapt to such influences 2.2 Mission of the dissertation - Clarify theoretical and practical issues in China – Laos relations - Present, analyse and evaluate the actual situation of China – Laos economic relations from 1989 to present; show major characteristics, successes, problems of this relations and their root causes - Show influences of this relations to general implemetation of diplomatic polies of China and Laos with Southeast Asia and Vietnam - Withdraw some implications for Vietnam during international economic policy-making for national development Objects and research scope of the dissertation 3.1 Objects to the dissertation The dissertation focuses on analysing the nature of China – Laos relations from the relation normalization between two parties (1989) until now, especially since the establishment of strategic partnership The dissertation also studies influences of this relations to other subjects, especially Vietnam 3.2 Research scope of the Thesis The scope of Space: Activities in economic cooperation of China and Laos shall be analysed The scope of time: From 1989 to present However, due to long duration, beside the historical view of economic relations between two nations, the dissertation focus on current years, especially the period from the establishment of comprehensive and strategic partnership in 2009 until now The scope of content: The dissertation concentrates on analyzing following major issues: (i) Literature review and actual status of the relations between the two nations: these are considered as extremely important issue to identify the academic orientation in a logical manner when explaining ideas in the dissertation; (ii) Actual status of the relations between the two nations in specific aspects such as trading, investment, assistance and HR cooperation Due to complex issues in relations of the two nations and limitation of a PhD dissertation, I just select above essential issues for analysis to clarify the economic relations between nations and ensure the concentration and specialization of the research Besides, the dissertation also analyses economic activities in Yunnan – the “pioneer” of China in enhancement of economic relations with Laos, including cross-border economic cooperation between the two nations; (iii) Evaluation of influences and orientation of China – Laos relations : In this case, the Thesis focuses on influences caused to subjects such as Laos (majorly), China and Vietnam – Laos economic relations Currently, the dissertation predicts China – Laos relations in specific aspects such as trading, investment, assistance and HR cooperation Research Method and Approaches In this dissertation, the Author applied the methodology of dialectical materialism and historical materialism in combination with other methods such as statistical analysis, logical method, general analysis, documentation method and expert evaluation methods New scientific contributions of the dissertation - This is the first systematic study on China – Laos relations in Vietnam; therefore, the Thesis will provide an overview of operation, as well as features and nature of this economic relations - The dissertation analyses and clarifies the asymmetrical economic relations between one side – a nation with the strongest economy in Asia and the second-rank economy in the world and the other side – a nation with the small scale economy and low development level Then, the Thesis will assess advantages and challenges of small and low competitive economy when cooperating with a great economy - The dissertation clarifies how the China –Laos relations influences to development of Laos and Vietnam economy in Laos Then, the Thesis proposes basic solutions to promote the Vietnam – Laos economic relations in the coming time with the pressure from domestic economic factors - The dissertation also explains and clarifies a logic in China –Laos economic relations: With features of current China – Laos economic relations, the faster development of bilateral economic relations, the higher dependence on China of Laos economy - The dissertation also clarifies reciprocal influences between economy and politics based on the analysis of China – Laos economic relations - Based on actual status of this relations, the dissertation withdraws some implications and proposes some policies for Vietnam to make international economic policy for national development Theoretical and practical meaning of the dissertation 6.1 Theoretical meaning The dissertation supplements and clarifies the analysis of asymmetrical economic relations between a great economy and a small one, which helps us understand thoroughly about motion rule of the economic relations between Laos and China This will contribute a part in clarification of economic rules in the economic relations between Laos, as well as other nations with low development level and China In other hand, the study will diversify existed economic viewpoints: China has been applied the “go out” policy; accordingly, this country develops its economy at any cost to reach a high speed of economic development, leading to significant corollary to further sustainable development 6.2 Practical meaning - The dissertation will become a valued reference for study on China – Laos economic relations , as well as the international economic relations of China - The dissertation provides systematic scientific evidences to policy-maker in Vietnam These evidences may be used for reference during economic policy making of Vietnam – Laos relations in the context of China – Laos economic relations enhancement Dissertation structure Beside the Introduction, Conclusion, List of Tables, Schedules, Abbreviations and References, the Thesis is divided into 04 Chapters as follows: Chapter 1: Literature Review Chapter 2: Theoretical and practical basis related to China – Laos economic relations Chapter 3: Impacting factors, current status and characteristics of ChinaLaos economic relations from 1989 to the present day Chapter 4: Impact, trends of China – Laos economic relations and some implications for Vietnam CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1 Typical studies on China and Laos China and Laos have been subjects to various studies of authors such as: Truong Duy Hoa – Chief Editor of the study “ Some Issues Related to Economic – Politic Orientation in Lao People's Democratic Republic in the First Two Decades of 21st Century” (Social Science Publishing House, Hanoi 2012); Nguyen Duy Dung – Chief Editor of the study “Vietnam – Laos – Cambodia: Friendship, Cooperation and Development” (ICPublisher, 2012) In this Thesis, the Author also states that Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia are located in the Indochina with joined mountains and rivers; countries have culture closed to each other; they always give each other support and assistance in any circumstances Beside, Chinese studies such as “Diplomatic Strategies and Policies of China” written by So Thu Long and Kim Uy – researchers on international relations – and published by China’s News Publishing House This study focuses on diplomatic strategies and policies of China by analyzing the basis and foundation for Chinese diplomacy such as overview of Chinese history in early modern period; cultural tradition, philosophy, theoretical basis on politic thought; some conceptions of Chinese to the world 1.2 Publications related to China – Laos economic relations Currently, the number of studies related to China – Laos economic relations has been significantly increased, especially typical works of inland researchers, namely: Author Tran Thi Hai Yen with “Economic Relations between Yunnan (China) and Laos” on Southeast Asian Studies Review; Author Duong Van Huy with “China enhanced the strategic influences to Laos” (Science and Strategy Review, volume 4, April 2014) From the aforementioned publications, it can be seen that: Laos has a strategic location which is extremely important to China; therefore, in recent years, China has been active in enhancement of comprehensive and powerful influences to Laos Besides, in the work “Participation of China to Great Mekong Subregion cooperation” (Southeast Asian Studies Review, volume 11), Author Nguyen Anh Dung (2016) studied China’s cooperating mechanism with countries of GMS, especially infrastructure projects connecting China to countries of this region Furthermore, in “China Relations with Laos and Cambodia”, in China Internal and External Relations and Lessions for Korea and Asia”, Carlyle A Thayer stated that China has increased its influences to Laos and Cambodia in all aspects, especially economy and politics in the future 1.3 General assessment of studies Current studies are short of comprehensive and systematic research on China – Laos relations (including issues in both the past and the present) Model and structure of China – Laos relations has not been clarified to evaluate opportunities and risks of this economic relations Existed studies have not been assessed impacts of aforementioned process to Vietnam – Laos relations and Lao – Vietnam relations in the coming time 1.4 Directions of the dissertation The dissertation clarifies theoretical basis of China – Laos economic relations from 1989 until now and model this “asymmetric economic relations” The dissertation clarifies actual status of the economic relations between nations in specific aspects and motion trend of this relations in the coming time The dissertation clarifies the closed relation between economy and politics in the China – Laos economic relations to predict some risks for Laos’ further development, especially economic risk The dissertation withdraws some implications for Vietnam during international economic policy-making for national development The dissertation evaluates the further economic relations between China and Laos in the coming time in different aspects 1.5 Research question * General research question: After analyzing actual status, model and motion trend of China – Laos economic relations from 1989 until now of this relations, the dissertation found the nature of this “asymmetric economic relations”, as well as its impacts to each country and their bilateral relations Concurrently, the dissertation also identifies influences to Vietnam and Vietnam – Laos relations * Arising research question * Derivative research question: - How the China – Laos relations developed from 1989 until now? - How is the relations between two nations in specific aspects? How China – Laos relations influences to Laos economy and Vietnam – Laos economic relations? - China’s control enhancement to Laos economy may cause risks to Laos during the economic development with China Especially, the increase of “over export of resources” will decline natural resources, foster unsustainable economic development and lead to other consequences for Laos economy - Predict China – Laos economic relations in the coming time, as well as impacts of this process to Vietnam, especially in economic sector Chapter 2: THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL BASIS RELATED TO CHINA – LAOS ECONOMIC RELATIONS 2.1 Theoretical basis 2.1.1 Definitions of international economy 2.1.2 Typical theories 2.1.3 Model of China – Laos economic relations 2.2 Practical basis of China – Laos economic relations: a study on China – Myanmar economic relations 2.2.1 Evolutions of regional situation that affects to China – Laos economic relations Firstly, resurgence of China and Beijing’s amendment of diplomatic strategies Secondly, increase of the US existence and re-involvement in the region 2.2.2 Development of regional cooperation mechanism Firstly, the development of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Secondly, the development of cooperation among countries of the Great Mekong Subregion 2.2.4 Demand of China and Laos on increase of bilateral economic relations 2.2.5 Evolutions of politic – diplomatic relations of two countries, fostering the bilateral economic relations 2.3 Conclusion of Chapter In this chapter, we analyze the reason why the study on China – Laos economic relations from relation normallization (1989) until now is decided Besides, overseas and domestic study related to China – Laos economic relations are also analysed We found that there existed a blank space in studies and such blank space is extremely urgent in Vietnam Concurrently, in this study, we focus on theoretical basis to clarify actual status of economic relations between two nations and model this “asymmetric economic relations” Chapter 3: IMPACTING FACTORS, CURRENT STATUS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF CHINA-LAOS ECONOMIC RELATIONS FROM 1989 TO PRESENT 3.1 Impacting factors on China-Laos economic relations 3.1.1 Changes of international and regional situation impacting on ChinaLaos economic relations Firstly, the rise of China and the adjustment of Beijing's strategic diplomacy Second, the increase in US presence and re-engagement in the region 3.1.2 Development of regional co-operation mechanism Firstly, the development of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) Secondly, the development of Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) cooperation 3.1.3 Impacts from factors of China and Laos 3.1.4 Demands of China and Laos in the improvement of bilateral economic relations 3.1.4 Changes in diplomatic and political relations of two countries contributing to improve bilateral economic relations 3.2 Current status of commodity trading relations of China and Laos 3.2.1 Changes in commercial quota of China and Laos * The period from 1989 to 2009: It can be seen that in the period of 20 years (1989-2009), bilateral trade of two countries increased steadily, and rapidly during the period of world economic crisis (2008-2009) However, the trade balance of two countries at that time was largely towards China * Period from 2010 to 2016: During this period, China increased importing from Laos, especially minerals and agricultural products This is in line with tightening economic relations between the two countries in recent years 3.2.2 Changes of import and export value in commercial relations between two countries * Period from 1989 to 2009: During this period, Laos mainly excess imports over exports from China * Period from 2010 to 2016: In 2009, bilateral trade turnover remained at a substantial level, starting with 2010, China's import turnover from Laos was over China's export turnover to Laos, China's imports over exports situation in the co-operation from Laos increased 3.2.3 Structure of import and export commodity of China and Laos Laos has increasingly exported more resources to China that has been and will affect worse and worse to the sustainable development of Laos, because one of Laos’ strengths is the environment, but now the environment is increasingly destroyed In the near future, Laos will lose its competitive advantage in economic cooperation with foreign countries in general China has been promoting bilateral trading activities with Laos This makes China’s goods be flooded more and more into Laos, competing with goods from other countries such as Thailand and Vietnam Laos’ manufacturing industries, especially young and small ones are also confronted with 10 competitive pressures and "premature death" from the massive influx of China’s goods 3.2.4 Development of border trade between China and Laos Yunnan is the unique province of China having the frontier line bordering with Laos, thus this province plays the leading role in promoting the China-Laos relations Only within 15 years, trade turnover between Yunnan – Laos increased over 70 times, developed in both width and depth Although during recent years, there has been new development in both the width and depth, the trade relations between Yunan and Laos is still remaining certain challenges and difficulties 3.3 Investment of China and Laos 3.3.1 Changes of investment scope and speed of China and Laos Investment activities of China at Laos began from 1998-1999, however it only increased strongly since the beginning of the 21st century China in the current period is flooding to invest in Laos, expanding both scope and fields of investment 3.2.2 Investment structure and fields of China at Laos The significant increase in Chinese investment is concentrated mainly in the following fields: Firstly in the fields of infrastructure construction, transportation Secondly in the fields of mineral mining, agriculture and forestry Thirdly in the field of energy extraction Fourthly in the field of information, telecommunications Fifthly in the field of finance Sixthly in the field of agriculture Seventhly in the field of industry Eighthly in the field of tourism 3.4 Aid of China for Laos (ODA) 3.4.1 Increases in aid scope of China at Laos In the case of looking at China's investment and aid sectors, it is clear that China's economic activities in Laos are growing at a rapid rate With the such current speed of economic growth of China to Laos, China will become the "top" one among Laos' economic partners in the next to 10 years 3.4.2 Aid structure of China to Laos 11 China’s aid focuses mainly on the weak and urgent areas for economic development in Laos, especially in the field of infrastructure construction As mentioned above, during recent years, China has signed a number of investment projects funded by Beijing's ODA with Laos, especially traffic projects such as roads, railways, airline) and hydropower projects 3.4.3 Co-operation in human resource and tourism Firstly, human resources cooperation between two countries has been strengthened in recent years China supports in training human resources for Laos China's educational assistance for Laos is primarily the increase of training scholarships for Lao and the strengthening of short-term training for Lao officials Secondly, Chinese tourists coming to the local border tourism areas of Laos increased rapidly, on the one hand they visited the tourism, but on the other they came to seek business opportunities, evenly for immigration 3.5 Evaluate the economic relations between two countries in some fields 3.5.1 Evaluation of trade relations between two countries * Positive points: Increasing Laos's exports to China is always at the position of surplus export, which increases Laos's revenues and improves Lao people’s life On the other hand, China exports lot of consumer goods into the Lao market, which makes it possible for Laos to compensate goods that the country has not produced and create competition with its other trading partners such as Thailand, Vietnam * Challenges: Firstly, Laos mainly exports raw materials, thus the importexport balance is increasing towards Laos and the trade balance is increasing that also means the more and more loss of Laos’ resources This is a manifestation of unsustainable trade type Second, there is imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade goods between Laos and China While Laos mainly exports its preliminary agricultural products to China, China exports mainly machinery, electronics, home appliances, and so on to Laos’ market In the long time, it will crush the domestic production of Laos It is difficult for Laos to build a competitive commodity production base with China 3.5.2 Some evaluation on investment activities of China in Laos * Positive: 12 Firstly, China's investment has also helped increasing Laos's domestic capital, especially in the context of a growing thirst for capital in Laos, the increasing demand for investment capital in domestic for the open economic development of Laos Secondly, China’s investment in Laos also contributes to enhance and improve Laos's domestic technology Thirdly, China's investment also contributes to the training of human resources in the production management of Laos Fourthly, China's investment also increases the competitiveness of its domestic investment activities for development, enhances its dynamism and competitiveness in the country, and facilitates the efficient exploitation of its potential strength in domestic Fifthly, China’s investment in Laos also contributes to expanding the international market of Laos * Limits: Firstly, the problem of localization in hiring local labors by China’s investment firms in Laos Secondly, matters related to land use of China’s firms Thirdly, the matter of environmental protection from China's investment projects 3.5.3 Evaluation of China’s Aid to Laos * Positive: Firstly, China's aid has helped Laos supplement its domestic capital resources for strong shortage, especially in recent years Secondly, China's aid mainly focuses on key areas and the urgent demands of Laos, thus it responds quickly and promptly to demands of Laos Thirdly, China’s aid to Laos also contributes to improvement of Laos’ economic structure * Limits: Firstly, China’s aid for infrastructure construction projects under big scope usually faces to some matters relating to land confiscation and site clearance Secondly, aid projects of China in the field of agriculture and forestry usually meet un-satisfaction of Laos’s people Thirdly, though aid projects of China increases priorities, effectiveness is still limited, especially in increasing price that makes Laos’s people feel worried 13 Fourthly, obviousness of projects invested by China’s aid is not high and China’s aid usually does not attach with binding conditions Fifthly, although China’s aid for Laos does not have binding condition attached with, aid projects are usually rewarded to Chinese contractor at the time of development in the face, then money flows from China to Laos’s people but return back China’s enterprises by one closed circle 3.6 Characteristics of China-Laos economic relations 3.6.1 Characteristics of China Laos Trade relations Firstly, bilateral trade scope is relatively small Secondly, bilateral trade structure has single characteristics Thirdly, bilateral trade relations is not stable Fourthly, trade relations between China and Laos changes from trade surplus to trade gap Fifthly, China uses local area as the key point in enhancing the relations with small neighboring countries, Yunnan of China as local area becomes the key factor on the relations with Laos, very few investors and businessmen at national scale It can be seen, with its economic strength, China is gradually determining its position in Laos, especially in the northern areas of Laos With large-scale projects which are being considered by the Laos’s government for the Seventh Five-Year Socio-Economic Development Plan (2011-2015) as the "Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone Development Project" in Northern area of Laos with the value of 2.24 billion USD, the project builds national railway system with the value of billion USD, investment of China in Laos will continue to increase strongly in the coming years Thus, Yunnan province is considered a leading area of China in enhancing economic relations with Laos 3.6.2 Investment characteristics of China in Laos Firstly, China mainly invests in long time into the exploitation of national resources, big projects are blood lines of the economy Secondly, economic investment projects of China are attached with labors coming to execution, promotes the role of Chinese community and increase Chinese immigrants with the new appearance of China towns (Chinese 14 towns) It can be said that in the current period, new Chinese immigrants to Laos has been increasing, especially small traders and workers under the labor contracts with China’s companies investing in Laos In particular, the Northern area of Laos has attracted not only major investments from China with big construction projects but also the most concentrated area for new Chinese immigrants The exact number of Chinese immigrants is very difficult at present as the number of migrants is far over the official registration number with the Lao central and local authorities 3.6.3 Aid characteristics of China for Laos Firstly, China’s aid mainly is focused much on infrastructure Secondly, China’s aid usually does not have binding conditions and follows with demands of Laos Thirdly, China’s aid is also based on urgent demands of Laos to provide urgent aids Fourthly, the difference between aid and loans 3.7 Sub-conclusion of chapter Since the relations between China and Laos have been normalized since 1989, the overall relations of the two countries has increased, especially after the world financial crisis in the period of 2008 - 2009, economic relations between two countries are strongly strengthened For Laos, China is an important economic partner, a huge market that is important for the development of the Laos’s economy With its wealthy pocket, China is ready to pour capital into Laos, especially in infrastructure investments for Laos This makes Laos consider economic relations with China more and more importantly In return, China is also aware of increasing economic relations with Laos that would help Beijing strengthen its diplomatic relations with Vientiane and be an important channel for China to increase its influence on the Southeast Asia In addition, Laos has political and social order stability; the capacity and production level of the economic sector has been firmly solid, business has step by step closely with the international market, the competitiveness of domestic goods has gradually been strengthened; the economic structure has been transformed; actively implement the Party's policies on planned economic development and priorities for sectors and local areas 15 Geographical position, natural resources and the nature attracted and offered conditions for the development of tourism and investment sectors This also attracted attentions and interest of China’s companies which are seeking investment markets in oversea In addition, policies for economic relations with Laos are also meaningful in politics, society and security for this country, especially under the background that China is speeding up the diplomatic strategy with neighboring countries and building communities at the common region Chapter 4: IMPACT, TRENDS OF CHINA – LAOS ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM 4.1 Impacts from economic relationship between China and Laos 4.1.1 Impact for Laos 4.1.2 Impact for Vietnam 4.2 Trends of economic relationship between China and Laos 4.2.1 Some advantages Firstly, the political and diplomatic relations between China and Laos are getting closer and closer, which is an important framework for the two sides to promote investment and aid relations Secondly, Laos has a policy of promoting economic relations with China Thirdly, China is stepping up its "One Ring Road" strategy and the Laos side is responding positively This is an important basis for the two countries to increase economic relations Especially China's initiative to launch the " Silk road on the sea route in the 21st Century " Fourthly, China and the Mekong sub-region countries are promoting the Mekong-China Trade Mechanism, which will serve as a basis for increasing China-Laos economic cooperation in the future Finally, the developments in the negotiations of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) 4.2.2 Some disavantages Firstly, China's investment often affects the environment, and Chinese aid in Laos flows into the pocket of Chinese companies 16 Secondly, China's investment is often accompanied by migration, which in turn increases the pressure on Laos in the long term Thirdly, China's investment and aid will have to be competitive with investors and providers for other aid 4.2.3 Some evaluations of trends in economic relationship between these countries in some specified fields * In the field of commercial economy: Firstly, the overall relationship between China and Laos, especially bilateral economic relationship, is being developed strongly Secondly, China is pushing its "outbound" strategy, especially in the southwestern provinces of Yunnan or Guangxi, and Laos is an important gateway to these provinces Thirdly, China is promoting its diplomatic strategy, in which diplomatic relations with Laos are considered one of its priorities Fourthly, China has promoted a strategic link between the "Silk Road Economic Ring Road" and the "Silk Road on Sea Route of the 21st Century," in which mainland Southeast Asia has a role to play weight Finally, China is actively promoting the "trans-Asia road" strategy, which has contributed significantly to boosting economic ties across the border between China and Laos in the near future * For the trends of Chinese invetsment and aid in Laos: From the assessment of the advantages and disadvantages mentioned above, it is possible to see the trend of investment and aid from China in Laos in the coming time as follows: Firstly, in the field of investment, China boosts investment activities in Laos In the other sides, China can take advantage of the exploitation of resources in the relatively "primitive" and fertile investment market, in parrallel with increasing employment for the Chinese population in the context of increasing unemployment pressure, partly to "transfer" the technology backward, low productivity and high environmental pollution to Laos to solve the problem, the "technological landfill" of this country Secondly, for aid activities, China is stepping up its support for Laos, moving towards becoming the most important aid donor to the million-elephant land 4.3 Some policies of implication and solutions for Vietnam during the 17 evolution of China's economic relations with Laos 4.3.1 Overview of present Vietnam - Laos economic picture 4.3.2 Some suggestions for solutions to economic growth of Vietnam Laos against the pressure of economic factors of China * Awareness in economic relationship between Vietnam and Laos: Firstly, to re-evaluate the overall economic relationship between Vietnam and Laos in order to see how this relationship is, especially the two countries that have a "special" relationship, the level of economic relationship must be corresponding A comprehensive re-evaluation of the attitudes of senior leaders is to see how they view economic relationship between the two countries and their future position on the two countries' economic relations Secondly, the development of economic and trade relations between the two countries is in essence and effectiveness, in the same position with political cooperation to create a strong bond with Laos, focusing on the implementation of the content agreed between the two Governments, reviewing and evaluating the results of implementation of Vietnam-Laos cooperation projects to speed up the process of quality assurance In cooperation, not compete in terms of quantity, investment field with China but focus, focus, focus, match the strength of Vietnam, ensuring the prestige, quality and harmony between economic and political interests between the two countries and the aim at southern Laos, key socioeconomic, defense-security regions * Specific recommendations: First, in the field of trade: - For mechanism of management, policies, management strengthening and human resources: The two sides should review the importexport documents (procedures) in line with the current level of integration of the two countries, especially When the ASEAN Economic Community was established in which the two countries were members Replicing the one shop one stop model of the two countries being piloted in Lao Bao-Danhsavanh gateway Continuing improving administrative procedures, implementing ecustoms, enhancing professional skills for customs officers of both sides - Promote preferential policies on capital for Vietnam-Laos importexport enterprises 18 - It is necessary to study the policy on imported and exported products - Strengthen cooperation between the two countries The two sides should promote border-gate economic development, encourage businesses in the two countries, promote investment in economic areas of the country, especially infrastructure such as bonded warehouses, warehouses to revive economic border provinces Secondly, investment solutions: - Complete the legal system of abroad investment - Simplify the procedures for registration, registration and investment licensing in Laos - To formulate preferential policies to assist enterprises in making investment - Strengthen the organization of investment promotion between the two countries 4.6 Little conclusion of Chapter It can be said that the Chinese-Lao economic relations are an important part of China's economic growth strategy for the region, which is considered the gateway to open the door of Laos from China to spill over into investment, trade, tourism and even migration At present, China and Laos have also made important achievements in bilateral economic cooperation, especially the building of cross-border infrastructure and economic zones, contributing to promoting economic exchanges for not only the two sides but also the other regions of the two countries Although the global financial crisis has affected most countries, unlike the trend, cross-border economic relationship have developed rapidly in recent years However, due to the asymmetry in the two countries' economic relationship, the investment, operation and exploitation of this cross-border economic relationship are mainly in the hands and controls of China In contrast, the participation of the Lao people is relatively modest China has almost share of the market in relation to the northern provinces of Laos The implication is that China's influence in northern Laos is very strong, apart from economic factors, including immigration 19 CONCLUSION From above research, we could go deep into following conclusions: Firstly, China is constantly promoting bilateral trade with Laos, which makes Chinese goods more and more flooded into the Lao market and compete with the goods of other countries such as Thailand and Vietnam Together, the imbalance in the trade relationship of the two countries Vietnam and Laos is more and more increasing Industrial goods are increasing in the Lao market, while agricultural commodities and raw minerals are still Lao's main commodities in relations with China Secondly, in the field of investment and development aid to China As a country with relatively low socioeconomic status in Southeast Asia, in recent years Laos has promoted economic development, especially attracting foreign investment Meanwhile, China is a neighboring country and a giant partner of Laos with a wealth of money ready to invest in most of Laos' economic sectors In recent years, China's investment in Laos has grown rapidly and has become Laos's largest foreign investor Thirdly, the asymmetry in the economic relationship of the two countries is clear and increasingly trending China is a country with the world's largest population (1.4 billion people), large area (about 960 million km2), huge GDP (9,000 billion USD in 2013) , the second largest economy in the world after the United States, so most of the countries having economic relations with China are asymmetric, including Laos Meanwhile, as the asymmetry between China and Laos widens, Laos is increasingly passive and increasingly dependent on the Chinese economy Laos is a major importer country in trade relations with China and this rate is growing Fourthly, China has maily invested in the exploitation of resources, the major projects of the economy The investment projects of China have a long time (from 20 to 30 years, some 50 years), concentrated in the strategic geographical areas of Laos such as Vientiane, northern Laos, Central Laos and Golden Triangle (this area has a rubber plantation project area of 10,000 in Luang Namtha province, bordering Myanmar) 20 Fifthly, China's economic investment projects have included bringing labor to work, promoting the role of the Chinese community, and increasing the new Chinese immigrant flows accompanied by the arrival of the Chinese and then There are appearances of serial "Chinatown" As a corollary, Southeast Asian nations have begun to see Chinese communities in their countries as "assets" in strengthening relations with China Finally, for the implications of Vietnam - Laos economic relation on the increase of economic relations between China and Laos It can be said that Vietnam and Laos in previous periods have built a very close relationship with each other called the "special Vietnam-Laos relations." However, since the two countries entered the renewal phase, developing a market economy and opening up their external borders, multilateral diplomacy was implemented The "special" relationship between the two countries is strongly influenced The most circumstances is in the context of the increasing China's influence on the region, including Laos, which has made the relationship of the two countries facing great challenges From a country with little influence on Laos, in recent years, China has rapidly surpassed Vietnam and Thailand as influential countries in Laos to become the most influential nation in the economic field The presence of the growing Chinese factor in Laos has been putting strong pressure on Vietnam, which has made Vietnam in recent time actively promote relations with Laos However, with China's economic strength and the level of economic control in place, Laos has been pushing Vietnam into a more passive position This does not mean that China is able to fully control the Lao factors because after all, Laos's interests in its relations with Vietnam are still huge./ 21 THE ARTICLES OF AUTHOR RELATED TO DISSERTATION Le Thi Huong Tra (2015), “Current Situation of Investment and Trade of China in Laos present day”, Southeast Asian Studies, No.11 (Vol.188) Le Thi Huong Tra (2017), “China-Laos Cross-border Economic Cooperation since 2008”, Chinese Studies Review, No.6 (Vol.190) Duong Van Huy – Le Thi Huong Tra (2017), “Progresses of Vietnam – Laos Economic Relations in Recent Years”, Review of External Information, Vol.160 ... both Laos and Vietnam, the Vietnam – Laos relations has been significantly affected The strong increase of “Chinese economic factor” in Laos has been put more presure on Vietnam economic factor... Laos, even dislodged Vietnam economic factor from Laos It is considered as a risk of Vietnam because the“Chinese economic factor” may cause impacts to other factors in the Vietnam – Laos relations... Vietnam – Laos relations and Lao – Vietnam relations in the coming time 1.4 Directions of the dissertation The dissertation clarifies theoretical basis of China – Laos economic relations from 1989
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