Answers to review quizzes marcroeconomics 12e parkin chapter 6

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W H AT I S E C O N O M I C S ? 105 ECONOMIC GROWTH** Answers to the Review Quizzes Page 172 (page 580 in Economics) What is economic growth and how we calculate its rate? Economic growth is the sustained expansion of production possibilities It is measured by the increase in real GDP over a given time period The economic growth rate is the annual percentage change in real GDP What is the relationship between the growth rate of real GDP and the growth rate of real GDP per person? The growth rate of real GDP tells how rapidly the total economy is expanding while the growth rate of real GDP per person tells how the standard of living is changing The growth rate of real GDP per person approximately equals the growth rate of real GDP minus the population growth rate Use the Rule of 70 to calculate the growth rate that leads to a doubling of real GDP per person in 20 years The rule of 70 states that the number of years it takes for the level of any variable to double is approximately equal to 70 divided by the growth rate If the level of real GDP doubles in 20 years, the rule of 70 gives 20 = 70 ÷ (growth rate) so that the growth rate equals 70 ÷ 20, which is 3.5 percent per year Page 175 (page 583 in Economics) What has been the average growth rate of U.S real GDP per person over the past 100 years? In which periods was growth most rapid and in which periods was it slowest? Over the past 100 years, U.S real GDP per person grew at an average rate of percent per year Slow growth occurred during mid-1950s and 1973–1983 Very slow growth (negative growth!) also occurred during the Great Depression Growth was rapid during the 1920s and 1960s Growth was also (extremely!) rapid during World War II Describe the gaps between real GDP per person in the United States and in other countries For which countries is the gap narrowing? For which is it widening? For which is it the same? 105 106 Some rich countries are catching up with the United States, but the gaps between the United States and many poor countries are not closing Amongst the rich countries, since 1960 Japan has closed the gap with the United States but the gaps between the United States and Canada, and the “Europe Big 4” (France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) have tended to remain constant Other Western European nations and the former Communist countries of Central Europe have fallen slightly farther behind the United States The gap between the United States and most nations in Africa, and Central and South America has widened But some nations in Asia— including Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, and China—have grown very rapidly The gap between these nations and the United States has shrunk; indeed, Singapore has slightly surpassed the United States and Hong Kong has virtually tied the United States Compare the growth rates in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, and the United States In terms of real GDP per person, how far is China behind these others? Since 1960, income per person in the nations of Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and China have grown very rapidly and are rapidly catching up to the United States Income per person in Hong Kong is virtually the same as that in the United States and income per person in Singapore slightly exceeds that in the United States Income in Korea also is relatively close Income in China is the lowest, though recently China has been growing the most rapidly China’s level of income in 2010 is similar to that of Hong Kong in 1976 Page 181 (page 589 in Economics) What is the aggregate production function? The aggregate production function is the relationship that tells us how real GDP changes as the quantity of labor changes when all other influences on production remain the same What determines the demand for labor, the supply of labor, and labor market equilibrium? The demand for labor is the relationship between the quantity of labor demanded and the real wage rate A fall in the real wage rate increases the quantity of labor demanded because of diminishing returns The demand for labor also depends on productivity If productivity increases, the demand for labor increases The supply of labor is the relationship between the quantity of labor supplied and the real wage rate An increase in the real wage rate increases the quantity of labor supplied because more people enter the labor force and the hours supplied per person increases The real wage adjusts so that the labor market is in equilibrium If the real wage rate is above (below) its equilibrium, there is a surplus (shortage) of labor that then causes the real wage rate to fall (rise) For example, if the real wage rate is above the equilibrium level, there is a surplus of labor so the real wage rate falls until it reaches its equilibrium The equilibrium quantity of employment is the full employment quantity of labor What determines potential GDP? Potential GDP is determined from the labor market equilibrium When the labor market is in equilibrium, there is full employment The quantity of real GDP produced by the full employment quantity of labor is potential GDP 106 W H AT I S E C O N O M I C S ? 107 What are the two broad sources of potential GDP growth? The two broad sources of growth in potential GDP are growth of the supply of labor and growth of labor productivity What are the effects of an increase in the population on potential GDP, the quantity of labor, the real wage rate, and potential GDP per hour of labor? An increase in population increases the supply of labor Employment increases and the real wage rate falls The increase in employment creates a movement along the aggregate production function so potential GDP increases Because of diminishing returns, potential GDP per hour of labor decreases What are the effects of an increase in labor productivity on potential GDP, the quantity of labor, the real wage rate, and potential GDP per hour of labor? The increase in labor productivity shifts the aggregate production function curve upward The demand for labor increases, and the demand for labor curve shifts rightward The increase in the demand for labor raises the real wage rate and increases employment The increase in employment as well as the upward shift of the aggregate production function increase potential GDP Potential GDP per hour of labor increases Page 183 (page 591 in Economics) What are the preconditions for labor productivity growth? The fundamental preconditions for labor productivity growth are the existence of: firms, markets, property rights, and money These fundamental preconditions create an incentive system that can lead to labor productivity growth Explain the influences on the pace of labor productivity growth Once the preconditions for growth are in place, the sources of labor productivity growth are: physical capital growth, human capital growth, and advances in technology All of these activities enable an economy to grow and they all increase labor productivity They all also interact: human capital creates new technologies, which are then embodied in both new human capital and new physical capital Similarly advances in technology also lead to increases in labor productivity Page 189 (page 597 in Economics) What is the key idea of classical growth theory that leads to the dismal outcome? The “dismal outcome” in classical theory is the conclusion that in the long run real GDP per person equals the subsistence level In classical growth theory, an increase in real GDP per person causes population increases that return real GDP per person to the subsistence level In the classical growth theory, an increase in income creates a population boom The increase in population increases the supply of labor Because of diminishing returns to labor, the increase in the supply of labor lowers the real wage rate and people’s incomes Eventually the real wage rate falls to equal the subsistence level, at which time the population stops growing What, according to neoclassical growth theory, is the fundamental cause of economic growth? In neoclassical growth theory, growth results from technological advances, which are determined by chance 107 108 What is the key proposition of new growth theory that makes economic growth persist? The key proposition that makes growth persist indefinitely in the new growth theory is the assumption that the returns to knowledge and human capital not diminish As a result, increases in knowledge not cause diminishing returns and the incentive to innovate remains high As people accumulate more knowledge, the incentive to innovate does not fall and so people continue to innovate new and better ways to produce new and better products This innovation means that economic growth persists indefinitely 108 Answers to the Study Plan Problems and Applications Brazil’s real GDP was 1,180 trillion reais in 2013 and 1,202 trillion reais in 2014 Brazil’s population was 198 million in 2013 and 200 million in 2014 Calculate a The growth rate of real GDP The economic growth rate is the growth rate of real GDP Between 2013 and 2014 this growth rate equals [(1,202 trillion reais − 1,180 trillion reais)/1,180 trillion reais] × 100, which is 1.9 percent b The growth rate of real GDP per person Brazil’s population grew at [(200 million − 198 million)/198 million] × 100, which is 1.0 percent Brazil’s economic growth rate is 1.9 percent, so the growth rate of real GDP per person is 1.9 percent − 1.0 percent, or 0.9 percent c The approximate number of years it takes for real GDP per person in Brazil to double if the 2014 growth rate of real GDP and the population growth rate are maintained Brazil’s real GDP per person is growing at 0.9 percent a year The rule of 70 tells us that Brazil’s real GDP per person will double in 70/0.9 = 77.8 years China’s real GDP per person was 13,165 yuan in 2013 and 14,088 yuan in 2014 India’s real GDP per person was 49,516 rupees in 2013 and 51,521 rupees in 2014 By maintaining their current growth rates, which country will be the first to double its standard of living? China’s growth rate of real GDP per person is [(16,010 yuan − 15,040 yuan)/15,040 yuan] × 100, which is 6.4 percent India’s growth rate of real GDP per person is [(56,840 rupees − 54,085 rupees)/54,085 rupees] × 100, which is 5.1 percent China’s real GDP per person will double in approximately 70/6.4 = 10.9 years and India’s real GDP per person will double in approximately 70/5.1 = 13.7 years, so China’s standard of living will double first China was the largest economy for centuries because everyone had the same type of economy—subsistence—and so the country with the most people would be economically biggest Then the Industrial Revolution sent the West on a more prosperous path Now the world is returning to a common economy, this time technology- and information-based, so once again population triumphs a Why was China the world’s largest economy until 1890? GDP equals GDP per person multiplied by the number of people Until 1890 most people in the world had approximately the same subsistence level of income so that every nation’s GDP per person was about the same Because China had, by far, the world’s largest population, China also had the world’s largest GDP b Why did the United States surpass China in 1890 to become the world’s largest economy? The United States benefited from the industrial revolution that was sweeping Western nations at the time while China did not U.S economic growth accelerated well beyond Chinese economic growth so that the U.S GDP became larger than China’s GDP 78 CHAPTER Use the following tables to work Problems to The first table describes an economy’s labor market in 2014 and the second table describes its production function in 2014 Real wage rate (dollars per hour) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Labor hours supplied 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Labor hours demanded 10 15 20 25 30 35 Labor (hours) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Real GDP (2009 dollars) 425 800 1,125 1,400 1,625 1,800 1,925 2,000 What are the equilibrium real wage rate, the quantity of labor employed in 2014, labor productivity, and potential GDP in 2014? The equilibrium real wage rate is $40 per hour and the equilibrium quantity of labor employed is 25 hours With employment of 25 hours, the production function shows that potential GDP is $1,625 Labor productivity equals $1,625 ÷ 25 hours, or $65.00 per hour In 2015, the population increases and labor hours supplied increase by 10 at each real wage rate What are the equilibrium real wage rate, labor productivity, and potential GDP in 2015? The equilibrium real wage rate is $30 per hour and the equilibrium quantity of employment is 30 hours With employment of 30 hours, the production function shows that real GDP is $1,800 Labor productivity equals $1,800 ÷ 30 hours, or $60.00 per hour In 2015, the population increases and labor hours supplied increase by 10 at each real wage rate Does the standard of living in this economy increase in 2015? Explain why or why not The standard of living does not increase In fact, it decreases because real GDP per person falls The economy moves along its production function so that potential GDP increases but real GDP per person decreases Labor Productivity on the Rise The BLS reported the following data for the year ended June 2009: In the nonfarm sector, output fell 5.5 percent as labor productivity increased 1.9 percent—the largest increase since 2003—but in the manufacturing sector, output fell 9.8 percent as labor productivity increased by 4.9 percent—the largest increase since the first quarter of 2005 Source: bls.gov/news.release, August 11, 2009 In both sectors, output fell while labor productivity increased Did the quantity of labor (aggregate hours) increase or decrease? In which sector was the change in the quantity of labor larger? Labor productivity equals output divided by labor hours, so labor hours equals output divided by labor productivity In terms of growth rates, this last formula means that the growth in labor hours approximately equals the growth in output minus the growth in labor productivity (This is the same calculation as on page 578 of the text for the approximation formula for growth in real GDP per person.) ECONOMIC GROWTH Using this equation, in the nonfarm sector labor hours fell by −5.5 percent – 1.9 percent = −7.4 percent and in the manufacturing sector labor hours fell by −9.8 percent – 4.9 percent = −14.7 percent The change in labor was the largest in the manufacturing sector Explain the processes that will bring the growth of real GDP per person to a stop according to a Classical growth theory According to the classical theory, population growth continues at a rapid pace as long as real GDP per person exceeds the subsistence level With population growth, the supply of labor increases and diminishing returns lowers real GDP per person Eventually real GDP per person equals the subsistence amount, at which time economic growth ends b Neoclassical growth theory In the neoclassical model, technological growth leads to increased saving so that capital accumulates and real GDP per person grows When technological growth stops, capital continues to accumulate but diminishing marginal returns drives the return on capital lower and so decreases investment and saving Eventually the capital stock stops growing and economic growth stops c New growth theory According to the new growth theory, economic growth will not stop 79 80 CHAPTER Answers to Additional Problems and Applications In 2013, Turkey’s real GDP was growing at 4.1 percent a year and its population was growing at 1.26 percent a year If these growth rates continued, in what year would Turkey’s real GDP per person be twice what it is in 2013? The growth rate of real GDP per person is equal to the growth rate of real GDP minus the population growth rate Thus, it is equal to 4.1 − 1.26 = 2.84 percent The rule of 70 states that the number of years it takes for the level of any variable to double is approximately equal to 70 divided by the growth rate Using the rule of 70, Turkey’s real GDP per person will double in 70/2.84 = 24.65 years 10 Turkey’s real GDP (in U.S dollars) was $788.9 billion in 2012 and $822.1 billion in 2013 Turkey’s population was 74 million in 2012 and 74.93 million in 2013 Calculate a The growth rate of GDP The growth rate of GDP is the percentage change in GDP It is equal to [(822.1 − 788.9)/788.9] × 100 = 4.21 percent b The growth rate of real GDP per person Turkey’s population grew at [(74.93 million − 74 million)/74 million] × 100, which is 1.26 percent Turkey’s growth rate of real GDP is 4.21 percent, so the growth rate of real GDP per person is 4.21 percent − 1.26 percent, or 2.95 percent c The approximate number of years it takes for GDP per person in Turkey to double if the 2013 growth rate of GDP and the population growth rate are maintained Turkey’s real GDP per person is growing at 2.95 percent a year The rule of 70 tells us that Turkey’s real GDP per person will double in 70/2.95 = 23.72 years 11 Russia’s real GDP (in U.S dollars) was $2.017 trillion in 2012 and $2.097 trillion in 2013 Russia’s population was 143.2 million in 2012 and 143.5 million in 2013 Calculate a The growth rate of real GDP The growth rate of real GDP between 2011 and 2012 equals [($2.097trillion − $2.017 trillion)/$2.097 trillion] × 100 = 3.97 percent b The growth rate of real GDP per person Russia’s population growth rate is equal to [(143.5 million − 143.2 million)/ 143.2 million] × 100, which is 0.21 percent Russia’s economic growth rate is 3.97 percent, so the growth rate of real GDP per person is 3.97 percent − 0.21 percent, or 3.76 percent c The approximate number of years it will take for real GDP per person in Russia to double if the current growth rate of real GDP is maintained Russia’s real GDP per person is growing at 3.76 percent a year The rule of 70 tells us that Russia’s real GDP per person will double in 70/3.76 = 18.61 years ECONOMIC GROWTH 12 The New World Order While gross domestic product growth is picking up a bit in emerging market economies, it is picking up even more in the advanced economies Real GDP in the emerging market economies is forecasted to grow at 5.4% in 2015 up from 4.9% in 2012 In the advanced economies, real GDP is expected to grow at 2.3% in 2015 up from 1.4% in 2012 The difference in growth rates means that the large spread between emerging market economies and advanced economies of the past 40 years will continue for many more years Source: World Economic Outlook, January, 2014 Do growth rates over the past few decades indicate that gaps in real GDP per person around the world are shrinking, growing, or staying the same? Explain Gaps with a few countries are shrinking but for the most part gaps are remaining more or less the same The gaps between U.S real GDP per person and real GDP per person in a few Asian countries, such as Hong King, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, and China have narrowed sharply over the last 40 years But the gaps between U.S real GDP per person and real GDP per person in Canada, Europe, Japan (since 1970), and Central and South America have remained roughly constant over the past decades And the gap between U.S real GDP per person and real GDP per person in Africa has widened slightly since 1960 The data in the news clip indicates that the gap between the advanced economies and the emerging market economies will decrease a bit in 2015 13 If a large increase in investment increases labor productivity, explain what happens to a Potential GDP The production function curve shifts upward and equilibrium employment increases, both of which increase potential GDP b Employment Employment increases The demand for labor increases, which increases equilibrium employment c The real wage rate The real wage rate rises The demand for labor increases, which raises the equilibrium real wage rate 14 If a severe drought decreases labor productivity, explain what happens to a Potential GDP The production function curve shifts downward and equilibrium employment decreases, both of which decrease potential GDP b Employment Employment decreases The demand for labor decreases, which decreases equilibrium employment c The real wage rate The real wage rate falls The demand for labor decreases, which lowers the equilibrium real wage rate 81 82 CHAPTER Use the following tables to work Problems 15 to 17 The first table describes an economy’s labor market in 2014 and the second table describes its production function in 2014 Real wage rate (dollars per hour) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 15 Labor hours supplied 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Labor hours demanded 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Labor (hours) 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Real GDP (2009 dollars) 1,425 1,800 2,125 2,400 2,625 2,800 2,925 3,000 What are the equilibrium real wage rate and the quantity of labor employed in 2014? The equilibrium real wage rate is $40 per hour and the equilibrium quantity of labor employed is 35 hours 16 What are labor productivity and potential GDP in 2014? Potential GDP is $2,625, the quantity of real GDP produced with the equilibrium quantity of employment Labor productivity equals $2,625 ÷ 35 hours, or $75.00 per hour 17 Suppose that labor productivity increases in 2014.What effect does the increased labor productivity have on the demand for labor, the supply of labor, potential GDP, and real GDP per person? The increase in labor productivity increases the demand for labor The supply of labor does not change The equilibrium wage rate rises and equilibrium employment increases Potential GDP increases for two reasons: First, the increase in labor productivity increases potential GDP; second, the increase in equilibrium employment increases potential GDP Real GDP per person increases 18 India’s Economy Hits the Wall Just six months ago, India was looking good Annual growth was 9%, consumer demand was huge, and foreign investment was growing But now most economic forecasts expect growth to slow to 7%—a big drop for a country that needs to accelerate growth India needs urgently to upgrade its infrastructure and education and health-care facilities Agriculture is unproductive and needs better technology The legal system needs to be strengthened with more judges and courtrooms Source: BusinessWeek, July 1, 2008 Explain five potential sources for faster economic growth in India suggested in this news clip One suggested source of increased economic growth is increased infrastructure investment Infrastructure includes factors such as roads, ports, railways, and electricity transmission The second suggestion mentioned is to raise education achievement This recommendation, while not a short-term fix, would be quite powerful at raising India’s long-term growth The third factor is to increase healthcare facilities Better health care for its citizens translates into increased labor productivity because India’s workers would be better able to work in the ECONOMIC GROWTH marketplace The fourth source of increased economic growth is to increase productivity in agriculture This suggestion, however, is not well detailed; in particular, it is much easier to suggest raising productivity than to actually so The last suggestion is to increase the number of judges and strengthen the legal system, and improve governance However, while a seemingly simple suggestion, this process is likely to wind up politically quite difficult 19 Has The Ideas Machine Broken Down? According to Robert Gordon, the last two centuries of economic growth might actually amount to just “one big wave” of dramatic change rather than a new era of interrupted progress, and that the world is returning to extensive growth, which is a matter of adding more and/or better labor, capital, and resources Source: The Economist, January 12, 2013 Which of the growth theories that you studied in this chapter best corresponds to the argument advanced by Mr Gordon? Neoclassical growth theory best corresponds to the argument advanced by Gordon According to this theory, technological change, which influences the economic growth rate, results from chance When we are lucky, we have rapid technological change, and when bad luck strikes, the pace of technological advance slows 20 Is faster economic growth always a good thing? Argue the case for faster growth and the case for slower growth Then reach a conclusion on whether growth should be increased or slowed More rapid economic growth brings increased consumption possibilities in the future, which is the benefit from economic growth Economic growth has costs: Decreased current consumption and the possibility of increased resource depletion and environmental damage (Of course, the technological change that results from economic growth might allow for less resource depletion and less environmental damage.) Whether economic growth should be increased or decreased depends on the benefits of more rapid growth relative to the costs of more rapid growth 21 For Economist Paul Romer, Prosperity Depends on Ideas According to Romer, ideas and technological discoveries unlock the mystery of growth He argues that ideas, especially those that can be contained in a piece of software, codified in a chemical formula, or used to improve organization of an assembly line, don’t obey the law of diminishing returns Ideas and knowledge build on each other and can be reproduced cheaply Computers, networks, and software serve as his best illustrations of how ideas create prosperity Source: The Wall Street Journal, January 21, 1997 Explain which growth theory best describes the news clip The new growth theory stresses the role of innovation and the birth of new firms and the death of old ones The new growth theory best corresponds to the article because it describes the impact of ideas and technological discoveries on the economy If these ideas and discoveries are successful, then new firms that use these ideas and produce novel products will be born and old firms that produce outdated products will die The news clip also conveys that new technology will lead to prosperity and more profits 83 84 CHAPTER Economics in the News 22 After you have studied Economics in the News on pp 190–191 (598–599 in Economics), answer the following questions a How economic growth rates of South Africa and Botswana compare? Botswana’s economic growth rate has been much higher than South Africa’s economic growth rate b For South Africa to grow faster, how would the percentage of GDP invested in new capital need to change? The percent of GDP invested in new capital needs to increase c If South Africa is able to achieve a growth rate of percent per year, in how many years will real GDP have doubled? The rule of 70 shows that South Africa’s GDP will double in approximately 70/8.0 , which is 8.75 years d Describe the policies proposed by the author of the news article and explain how they might change labor productivity There are a variety of proposals designed to increase labor productivity These proposals include (1) reforming labor laws by removing the automatic extension of collective bargaining agreements across sectors; (2) establishing “jobs zones” that feature special exemptions from restrictive regulations; (3) lifting administrative requirements for small businesses; (4) creating a youth wage subsidy and marketdriven skills development programs; (5) distributing shares in state-owned companies; (6) introducing tax deductions to incentivize employee sharedownership schemes; and, (7) promoting joint ownership in the agricultural sector The first three proposals aim to increase labor productivity by decreasing rigidities in the labor market that prevent workers from being allocated to their highestvalued jobs The fourth proposal aims to increase labor productivity by boosting workers’ human capital The last three proposals attempt to increase labor productivity by changing the incentives of managers to a more profit-driven goal, which increases their incentives to boost their workers’ productivity e What is the source of Botswana’s growth success story and what must South Africa to replicate that success? Botswana has secure property rights and invests a very large proportion of its GDP South Africa must increase the growth of its capital, both physical capital and human capital South Africa must increase the growth rate of its labor productivity It also needs to make property rights secure ECONOMIC GROWTH f Draw a PPF graph to show what has happened in Botswana and South Africa since 1980 Figure 6.1 shows the PPFs of Botswana and South Africa in 1980 and 2012 In 1980, South Africa’s PPF lay beyond Botswana’s PPF But in the intervening years, Botswana has grown more rapidly so that its GDP has overtaken that in South Africa and so that now, as illustrated in the figure, Botswana’s PPF lies beyond South Africa’s PPF 23 Make Way for India—The Next China China grows at around percent a year, but its one-child policy will start to reduce the size of China’s working-age population within the next 10 years India, by contrast, will have an increasing working-age population for another generation at least Source: The Independent, March 1, 2006 a Given the expected population changes, you think China or India will have the greater economic growth rate? Why? Economic growth occurs because labor productivity grows and because the population grows If labor productivity grows at the same rate in China as in India, then the more rapid population growth in India will lead to more rapid economic growth in India b Would China’s growth rate remain at percent a year without the restriction on its population growth rate? According to the classical theory of economic growth, restricting population growth is necessary for persisting economic growth According to the new growth theory, restricting population growth leads to slower economic growth So whether China’s growth would remain at percent a year without restricting population growth is not clear c India’s population growth rate is 1.6 percent a year, and in 2005 its economic growth rate was percent a year China’s population growth rate is 0.6 percent a year, and in 2005 its economic growth rate was percent a year In what year will real GDP per person double in each country? India’s growth in real GDP per person equals percent a year minus 1.6 percent a year, which is 6.4 percent a year According to the Rule of 70, at this rate India’s real GDP per person will double in 70/6.4, which is 10.9 years So India’s real GDP per person will double by 2016 China’s growth in real GDP per person equals percent a year minus 0.6 percent a year, which is 8.4 percent a year According to the Rule of 70, at this rate China’s 85 86 CHAPTER real GDP per person will double in 70/8.4, which is 8.3 years So China’s real GDP per person will double in 2014 ... Eventually the capital stock stops growing and economic growth stops c New growth theory According to the new growth theory, economic growth will not stop 79 80 CHAPTER Answers to Additional Problems... largest in the manufacturing sector Explain the processes that will bring the growth of real GDP per person to a stop according to a Classical growth theory According to the classical theory, population... double by 20 16 China’s growth in real GDP per person equals percent a year minus 0 .6 percent a year, which is 8.4 percent a year According to the Rule of 70, at this rate China’s 85 86 CHAPTER real
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