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I’LL HAVE WHAT SHE’S HAVING SIMPLICITY: DESIGN, TECHNOLOGY, BUSINESS, LIFE John Maeda, Editor The Laws of Simplicity, John Maeda, 2006 The Plenitude: Creativity, Innovation, and Making Stuff, Rich Gold, 2007 Simulation and Its Discontents, Sherry Turkle, 2009 Redesigning Leadership, John Maeda, 2011 I’ll Have What She’s Having: Mapping Social Behavior, Alex Bentley, Mark Earls, and Michael J O’Brien, 2011 I’LL HAVE WHAT SHE’S HAVING Mapping Social Behavior ALEX BENTLEY, MARK EARLS, AND MICHAEL J O’BRIEN The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England © 2011 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher For information about special quantity discounts, please email special_sales@mitpress.mit.edu This book was set in Scala and Scala Sans by the MIT Press Printed and bound in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data I’ll have what she’s having : mapping social behavior / Alex Bentley, Mark Earls, and Michael J O’Brien ; foreword by John Maeda â•… p.â•… cm — (Simplicity: design, technology, business, life) Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-0-262-01615-5 (hbk : alk paper) Social learning.╇ Social interaction.╇ Social psychology.╇ I Bentley, Alex, 1970–╇ II Earls, Mark.╇ III O’Brien, Michael J (Michael John), 1950– HM1106.I42â•… 2011╆ 303.3’2—dc22╆ 2011004966 10â•… 9â•… 8â•… 7â•… 6â•… 5â•… 4â•… 3â•… 2â•… CONTENTS Foreword by John Maedâ•… vii Preface: In Katz’s Deliâ•… ix OUT OF THE TREESâ•… Playboy and the Pleistocenê•… The Forest for the Trees: The Social Side of Thingsâ•… Organizing Our Thinking as Treesâ•… 11 RULES OF THE GAMEâ•… 15 COPYING BRAIN, SOCIAL MINDâ•… 25 More Really Is Differentâ•… 27 Why Copy?â•… 29 The Social Brain: Organized in Treesâ•… 32 The Social Mind and Collective Memoryâ•… 35 v CONTENTS SOCIAL LEARNING, EN MASSEâ•… 41 Models of Social Diffusionâ•… 44 Anyone for “Less Nuanced”?â•… 48 Why “Cold Fusion” Is Differentâ•… 51 The Idea and the Virusâ•… 55 Heard That Name Before?â•… 57 Traditionsâ•… 62 CASCADESâ•… 67 Unintended Cascadesâ•… 68 “Impact” Cascadesâ•… 70 Not Solid Groundâ•… 71 Things Get Complexâ•… 73 When Power Laws Cascadedâ•… 76 Avalanches and Wildfiresâ•… 78 Cascades in Highly Connected Networksâ•… 81 Trees, Againâ•… 83 Learning from Cascadesâ•… 85 WHEN IN DOUBT, COP•… 87 Extending the Gamê•… 90 Long Tailsâ•… 91 Copycatsâ•… 94 How Are People Copying?â•… 105 MAPPING COLLECTIVE BEHAVIORâ•… 111 A Map with Four Regionsâ•… 114 The Age of “What She’s Having”â•… 123 Back in the Deliâ•… 126 Bibliographyâ•… 129 Indexâ•… 141 vi FOREWORD John Maeda Simplicity is a desirable state to achieve in the complex world we live in today, especially with the ongoing turmoil in our world’s economy Alex Bentley, Mark Earls, and Michael O’Brien’s assertion that our civilization’s guaranteed means for survival has always been quite simple—namely to just copy the other guy—is an important one It means that we need not worry at all because someone out there is bound to come up with a solution And we will all copy it en masse But what does their work say for all manners of copying? For example, in the negative forms of copying that we know, such as academic plagiarism or copyright infringement, we exact a serious punishment on such instances of “diffusion of innovation”—to use the authors’ terms In our inherently social environment rooted in the desire to achieve fairness and justice, we prescribe judgment on what makes a certain kind of innovation appropriate—and thus, vii FOREWORD make it more complex for innovation and much of the “social learning” described in this book to happen The work described in this book will make you scratch your head and wonder about your own culture’s proclivities for sharing (or hoarding)—whether that be your culture at work, your country’s, or the unique social space within your own family If innovation is, as the authors imply in this text, just one part good idea and many other parts setting it loose to be copied, then you will think differently about how tightly you hold onto “your stuff” and increase your own inclination to just let it all go Doesn’t that feel simple? Now, just don’t tell your intellectual property lawyer (smile) viii PREFACE: IN KATZ’S DELI Much of the 1989 Rob Reiner movie When Harry Met Sally now seems more than a little sugary This tale of dating and friendship among Manhattan’s middle class trumpets its moral almost as loudly as its plot twists, as Harry (Billy Crystal) and Sally (Meg Ryan) meet and mate and remeet (as friends) and so on, until the inevitable final reunion That said, the movie contains one of the more memorable scenes of romantic comedy As they’re sitting in a Lower East Side delicatessen, the topic of female orgasms comes up, and Harry tells Sally that no woman has ever faked one with him How does he know? Sally asks He just knows, Harry responds Sally then shows him—and the rest of the deli’s clientele—just how wrong he is What happens after that is what lies at the heart of our book At the next table is a woman of what is politely known as “a certain ix BIBLIOGRAPHY Wuchty, Stefan, Benjamin F Jones, and Brian Uzzi “The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge.” Science 316 (2005): 1036–1039 CHAPTER Aiello, Leslie C., and Robin I M Dunbar “Neocortex Size, Group Size, and the Evolution of Language.” Current Anthropology 34 (1993): 184–193 Bass, Frank M “A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables.” Management Science 15 (1969): 215–227 Beinhocker, Eric The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics New York: Random House, 2006 Bentley, R Alexander, and Michael J O’Brien “The Selectivity of Social Learning and the Tempo of Cultural Evolution.” Journal of Evolutionary Psychology (2011): 1–17 Bentley, R Alexander, and Paul Ormerod 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BIBLIOGRAPHY Malamud, Bruce D., Gleb Morein, and Donald L Turcotte “Forest Fires: An Example of Self-Organized Critical Behavior.” Science 281 (1998): 1840–1842 Newman, Mark E J Networks: An Introduction Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010 Roberts, David C., and Donald L Turcotte “Fractality and Self-Organized Criticality of Wars.” Fractals (1998): 351–357 Van Valen, Leigh “A New Evolutionary Law.” Evolutionary Theory (1973): 1–30 Watts, Duncan J “A Simple Model of Global Cascades on Random Networks.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99 (2002): 5766–5771 CHAPTER Axelrod, Robert D., and Michael D Cohen Harnessing Complexity: Organizational Implications of a Scientific Frontier New York: Free Press, 1999 Earls, Mark, and R Alexander Bentley “How Ideas Spread.” Research World (April 2009): 13–17 Gladwell, Malcolm Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking New York: Little, Brown, 2005 Goodhardt, Gerald J., Andrew S C Ehrenberg, and Christopher Chatfield “The Dirichlet: A Comprehensive Model of Buying Behaviour.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 147 (1984): 621–655 Gould, Stephen J Wonderful Life: The Burgess Shale and the Nature of History New York: Norton, 1989 137 BIBLIOGRAPHY Hahn, Matthew W., and R Alexander Bentley “Drift as a Mechanism for Cultural Change: An Example from Baby Names.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 270 (2003): S1–S4 Heider, Fritz “Attitudes and Cognitive Organization.” The Journal of Psychology 21 (1946): 107–112 Henrich, Joseph “Cultural Transmission and the Diffusion of Innovations: Adoption Dynamics Indicate That Biased Cultural Transmission is the Predominate Force in Behavioral Change.” American Anthropologist 103 (2001): 992–1013 Henrich, Joseph “Demography and Cultural Evolution: How Adaptive Cultural Processes Can Produce Maladaptive Losses: The Tasmanian Case.” American Antiquity 69 (2004): 197–214 Herzog, Harold A., R Alexander Bentley, and Matthew W Hahn (2004) “Random Drift and Large Shifts in Popularity of Dog Breeds.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 271: S353–S356 Ijiri, Yuji, and Herbert A Simon “Business Firm Growth and Size.” American Economic Review 54 (1964): 77–89 Lieberman, Erez, Christoph Hauert, and Martin A Nowak “Evolutionary Dynamics on Graphs.” Nature 433 (2005): 312–316 Lieberson, Stanley A Matter of Taste: How Names, Fashions, and Culture Change New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2000 Ormerod, Paul Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics New York: Pantheon, 2005 Pennisi, Elizabeth “Cultural Evolution: Conquering by Copying.” Science 328 (2010): 165–167 Rendell, Luke, Robert Boyd, Daniel Cownden, et al “Why Copy Others? Insights from the Social Learning Strategies Tournament.” Science 328 (2010): 208–213 138 BIBLIOGRAPHY CHAPTER Beinhocker, Eric The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics New York: Random House, 2006 Boyd, Robert, and Peter J Richerson Culture and the Evolutionary Process Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985 Ehrenberg, Andrew “Even the Social Sciences Have Laws.” Nature 365 (1993): 385 Henrich, Joseph, and Robert Boyd “The Evolution of Conformist Transmission and the Emergence of Between-Group Differences.” Evolution and Human Behavior 19 (1998): 215–241 McElreath, Richard, and Robert Boyd Mathematical Models of Social Evolution: A Guide for the Perplexed Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007 Mesoudi, Alex, and Stephen Lycett “Random Copying, FrequencyDependent Copying and Culture Change.” Evolution and Human Behavior 30 (2009): 41–48 Milgram, Stanley “Behavioral Study of Obedience.” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 67 (1963): 371–378 Richerson, Peter J., and Robert Boyd Not by Genes Alone Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2005 Salganik, Matthew J., Peter S Dodds, and Duncan J Watts “Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market.” Science 311 (2006): 854–856 Shenkar, Oded Copycats: How Smart Companies Use Imitation to Gain a Strategic Edge Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Business Press, 2010 van Vugt, Mark, and Anjana Ahuja Why Some People Lead, Why Others Follow, and Why It Matters New York: HarperBusiness, 2010 139 INDEX Behavior, spread of, 72 Behavioral economics, xi, 22, 115 Berger, Jonah, 58–60 Berry, Jonathan, 72 Bird songs, 103, 104 Boyd, Robert, 45 Brain, mirror neurons in, 29, 30 Brown, Gordon, 90 Buchanan, Mark, 10 Bush, George, 57 Buzzwords, 48–52, 69, 70, 96, 97, 104 80/20 rule, 76, 91 Amaral, Luis, 18 American Idol, 86 Anderson, Chris, 91, 92 Anderson, Walter, 118 Archaeology, 27, 35, 36, 119 Asch, Solomon, 81 Attractiveness, 3–8, 104 See also Mate choice Australian Aborigines, 103 See also Hunter-gatherers Axelrod, Robert, 16, 95 Cameron, David, 17, 90 Cascades, 65, 67–86, 102, 122 Chambers, Paul, 67, 68 Bak, Per, 78, 82 Bear Stearns, 87, 88 141 INDEX Chiefdoms, 20 Choice overload of, 8, 9, 92, 93, 121–124 selectivity of, 57, 64, 93, 100–108, 114–125 Chomsky, Noam, 11, 28 Christakis, Nicholas, 72 Clegg, Nick, 17, 90 Cohen, Michael, 96 Complexity science, 11, 74, 78, 79 Conformity, 2, 81, 98, 99, 108, 119, 122 Cooperation evolution of, 18, 19 and group selection, 19, 21 Copying, 41–65, 94–109, 118–123 directed, 97–100, 118–121 undirected, 100–105, 121–123 Couzin, Iain, 36 Cowell, Simon, 86 Cramer, Jim, 87, 88 Crow, James, 73 Cultural evolution, 36 Cultural transmission, 63, 64 among similar options, 8, 9, 92, 93, 116, 117–124 Diffusion, 41–65, 97–99, 106, 107, 118–121 Dirichlet model, 93 Distributed mind, 27–29 Division of labor, 32 Dodds, Peter, 121, 122 Dog breeds, 106 Dunbar, Robin, 9, 29 Early adopters, 107 Ehrenberg, Andrew, 93 Eldredge, Niles, 78 Elections, 36, 53, 61, 90, 107 Everett, Daniel, 28 Evolution, theory of, 56, 73–75, 79, 80 Evolutionary psychology, xi, 3–11 Facebook, 47, 71 Fairness, norms of, 21, 22 Financial crisis, 75, 87–88 Fitness landscapes, 75, 79, 96 Forest-fire models, 10, 80–82 Fossey, Dian, 25 Fowler, James, 72 Fractals, 33, 83, 84, 124 Darwin, Charles, 56, 73, 88 Dawkins, Richard, 20 Decision making See also Copying by consumers, 37, 93, 123–124 by copying, 94–109, 118–122 rational cost–benefit, 22, 23, 45, 115, 116 Games, multiplayer, 16, 22, 89, 90 Game theory, 16–19 Gell-Mann, Murray, 74 142 INDEX Genetic drift, 73–74 Gladwell, Malcolm, x, 72, 96, 118 Goodall, Jane, 26 Google Ngram, 50–51 Google Trends, 55, 56 Gould, Stephen J., 78, 88 Group mentality, 19, 28 Groups, collective intelligence of, 36, 37, 38 Kahnemann, Daniel, Kane, Pat, 15 Kauffman, Stuart, 74–76, 79, 82 Kay, John, 70 Keller, Ed, 72 Keynes, John Maynard, 30 Khan, Genghis, 6, 37 Kimura, Motoo, 73 Kin selection, 19 Kinship hierarchical nature of, 12, 13, 14, 20 keeping track of, 32, 34 Kolbert, Elizabeth, 42 !Kung San, 20 Hadza, 21, 22 See also Hunter-gatherers Health See also Swine flu attractiveness and, 5, scares and, 51, 55–57 social aspects of, 3, 54 Hedgehog vs fox strategy, 71 Henrich, Joe, 21, 89 Herds, 53, 54, 65 Holmes, Arthur, 83 Horticulturalists, 22 See also Machiguenga; Yanomamö Humphrey, Nicholas, 25, 29 Hunter-gatherers, 20, 21, 28, 32, 38, 103 Laland, Kevin, 31, 95 Lamelera, 21, 22 Language buzzwords in, 48–52, 69 (see also Buzzwords) evolution of, 34 fashions of, 48–52 hierarchical structure of, 12 recursive nature of, 12, 28 Le Mens, Gael, 58–60 Linguistics, 28 Linnaeus, Carl, 32 Long-tail markets, 77, 91, 92, 102, 103 Iacoboni, Marco, 30 Ideas, spread of, 41–45, 72, 80 Imitation, 30 See also Copying Innovation, 41–65 See also Diffusion Iroquois, Machiguenga, 22 See also Horticulturalists 143 INDEX Powell, Adam, 36 Power-law distributions, 76–80, 102, 103 Predictability, 73, 74, 88 Preferential-attachment models, 103 Presidents, U.S., 17, 57, 62 Primates, 25–26, 29, 30, 32 Prisoner’s dilemma, 16 Punctuated equilibrium, 78, 79 Marketing, 44, 45, 116 Markets, 77, 87–88, 122 Mate choice, 3–8, 104 Matsigenka, Memes, 55–57 Milgram, Stanley, 2, 119 Munros, 63 Music, 121–122 Names, 32, 34, 94 popularity of, 57–62 Neanderthals, 34 Nettle, Daniel, 37 Networks, 33, 71, 72, 81, 82, 86, 108 Newman, Mark, 80 Northwestern University Institute on Complex Systems, 18 Nowak, Martin, 18, 19 Random copying See Copying Rapoport, Anatol, 17 Rational-choice model, xi, 22, 23, 115, 116 Reciprocity direct, 19 indirect, 19, 20 Red Queen effect, 75 Rich-get-richer effect, 103 Richerson, Peter, 45 Rizzolatti, Giacomo, 29 Ormerod, Paul, 63, 88 Pareto, Vilfredo, 76 See also 80/20 rule Perot, Ross, 17 Personality, evolution of, 37 Pinker, Steven, xii, 58 Pirahã, 28 Playboy, 3–8 Pop culture, turnover in, 102 Population size, and behavior,Â� 27–29, 35–39 See also Distributed mind Salganik, Matt, 121–122 Samsø, Denmark, 41, 42, 43, 64 Santa Fe Institute, 74 Scale of analysis, xii, 27–29 Schelling, Thomas, 16 Science evolution of, 83–85 paradigms of, 83 Self-organized criticality, 78, 79 144 INDEX Shenkar, Oded, 118 Shennan, Stephen, 36 Shepard, Glenn, Slack, Gordy, 30 Sneppen, Kim, 79 Social brain, 26, 29, 35, 36 See also Distributed mind; Dunbar, Robin; Primates Social learning biased form of, 31, 36, 61, 62, 97–100, 118–121, 125, 126 conformity and, 31, 36, 81, 99 copying and, 30, 31, 36, 41–65, 94–109 Sontag, Susan, Soprano, Tony, 58 Stewart, Jon, 87 Stochastic change, 104, 105 Sunstein, Cass, x, Surowiecki, James, 36 Swine flu, 55–57 Tit-for-tat strategy, 17, 19 See also Game theory Traditions, 63, 64 Trees and group organization, 32, 33 technological evolution and, 39, 83, 84, 85, 124 thinking in terms of, 11, 32, 33, 124 Turcotte, Donald, 80 Twitter, 67, 68 Universal moral grammar, theory of, 11, 14 Unpredictability, 89 Upper Paleolithic, 27, 34, 35, 36 Uzzi, Brian, 18 van Valen, Leigh, 75 Waist-to-hip ratio, Wars, 81 Watts, Duncan, 81–83, 86, 121, 122 Wegener, Alfred, 83 When Harry Met Sally, ix Whiten, Andrew, 26 Wilde, Oscar, 95 Wisdom of crowds, 36, 37, 38, 125 See also Groups; Surowiecki, James Wright, Sewall, 75 Writing, 36 Tarde, Gabriele, x Technology, evolution of, 39 See also Diffusion Thaler, Richard, x, The Apprentice, 90 Theory of mind, 26 See also Social brain Thomas, Mark, 36 Three-body problem, 89 Tipping points, 72 145 INDEX X Factor, 86 Yanomamö, 8, 34 See also Horticulturalists Yu, Douglas, Zimbardo, Philip, 146 ... storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher For information about special quantity discounts, please email special_sales@mitpress.mit.edu This book was set in Scala and... complexity—not so overly simple as billiard balls or omniscient rational actors but not so overly detailed either, like the neurotic patient in Freudian psychoanalysis It is difficult to imagine... confronting big issues such as the spread of HIV, which is mediated by individual behaviors but manifest at the population scale by an incredible diversity of those behaviors and their interactions

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  • Cover

  • Contents

  • Foreword

  • Preface: In Katz’s Deli

  • 1 Out of the Trees

    • Playboy and the Pleistocene

    • The Forest for the Trees: the Social Side of Things

    • Organizing Our Thinking As Trees

  • 2 Rules of the Game

  • 3 Copying Brain, Social Mind

    • More Really Is Different

    • Why Copy?

    • The Social Brain: Organized In Trees

    • The Social Mind and Collective Memory

  • 4 Social Learning, En Masse

    • Models of Social Diffusion

    • Anyone for “less Nuanced”?

    • Why “cold Fusion” Is Different

    • The Idea and the Virus

    • Heard That Name Before?

    • Traditions

  • 5 Cascades

    • Unintended Cascades

    • “impact” Cascades

    • Not Solid Ground

    • Things Get Complex

    • When Power Laws Cascaded

    • Avalanches and Wildfires

    • Cascades In Highly Connected Networks

    • Trees, Again

    • Learning From Cascades

  • 6 When In Doubt, Copy

    • Extending the Game

    • Long Tails

    • Copycats

    • How Are People Copying?

  • 7 Mapping Collective Behavior

    • A Map With Four Regions

    • The Age of “What She’s Having”

    • Back In the Deli

  • Bibliography

  • Index

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