■2012 JSPS Asian CORE Program, Nagoya University and VNU University of Economics and Business Transportation Planning and Simulation of Petroleum Products to Area Struck by Tohoku Japan Earthquake Nagoya University Norie Inagaki* Nagoya University Yan Liu* Nagoya University Soemon Takakuwa* ABSTRACT: Tohoku Japan Earthquake, happened in March 11, 2011, causes great destruction to our supply system of crude oil and petroleum products, and produces great influence As main road, refinery, oil-tank terminal and gas station are all destructed and no effective solutions are followed as soon as earthquake happened, supply system can not be guaranteed immediately Some summary is made including our supply chain of petroleum products, supply and support system of petroleum products after earthquake, and transportation of petroleum products to refuges Also analysis validation of transportation of gasoline and kerosene to evacuation sites are made KEYWORDS: Tohoku Japan Earthquake, Transportation planning, Oil products Foreword The disaster due to Tohoku Japan Earthquake and tsunami are far more serious than government and Petroleum Association of Japan expect, especially to our petroleum supply system We are suffering great and disastrous results Locations and equipments such as petroleum refining factory, tank, gas station, and SS (service station) are all destroyed heavily Meanwhile, as no effective solutions are made when roads are blocked, transportation are cut off, our supply system could not be guaranteed immediately So, through review and summarization to our daily supply chain of petroleum products, supply and support system right After disaster, and transportation of petroleum products to refuges will be made, and then a introduction of transportation system for petroleum related products to evacuation site in Tohoku region A linear programming model is also constituted especially for transportation of petroleum and refueling to evacuation site With solid analysis and verification, a study of solutions for future disaster could be conducted by tank Petroleum refining and future processing are conducted in 27 refining factories nationwide Refined petroleum are well stored in about 190 oil terminals and transported all over the country for sale with coasting tanker, tank car and tank truck when necessary Fig shows the detailed information about petroleum supply chain Fig Supply chain of oil and petroleum products (Source: PAJ) In one year, about 17 million KL crude oils are imported from foreign countries used by tankers About 78 thousand KL crude oils are produced in Japan Also, about 18 million KL crude oils are saved or refined Supply chain of petroleum products Petroleum products are imported by tanker, and stored *Nagoya University, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration Petroleum products supply and support system after disaster Based on press release by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the article makes the summary of petroleum products supply and support system It is since March 17 that Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry began to public specific solutions, and issued focus on March 21 pumped through oil drum to cars or can one carried Another advantage of oil drum is no need of tank truck but transported with ordinary truck So in Miyagi Pref., Iwate Pref and Fukushima Pref where SS operation rate is relative low, oil drum are provided in 10 to 20 refuges 3.1 Restoration of SS (service station) On March 27, specially erected mini SS No is set in places in Rikuzen Takata City for refueling On April 1, it is expanded to cities towns and villages [1] Service Station (SS is called for short) is a facility that supply petroleum products for people SS has a function that people can obtain petroleum products conveniently As of May 31, specially erected SSs are closed There are 10300 specially erected SSs making refueling supply For detailed number of specially erected SSs, please refer to Fig Primary oil distributor‟s service station is 3070 in Tohoku region The news is first published on March 23 that No of SS still available is 2265, and operation rate is 74% Till March 30, every petroleum enterprises release its SS situation through official internet On April 4, SS‟s operation rate is increased to 90%, and then no marked rise until May 30 that operation rate is up to 96% However, influenced by aftershock, a drastic decline to 78% happens on April SSs remain unstable Fig shows process of SS restoration Fig.3 Number of specially erected service stations (source: METI) 3.3 Destruction to refining stations and actions of nation Fig shows capability of crude oil refining and recovery of refinery After the disaster, 31% of refineries in Tohoku region and Kanto region along Pacific Ocean lose productivity It is until March 21 that 17% of refineries begin to produce Fig.2 Restoration of service stations (Source: METI) In Kanto region, 88% of 5838 are available within 6661 series on March 28, and 99% of 6618 recovered for use on April 11 The Refining Ability of Oil Wholesaler and The Restored Situation of damaged Oil Factories out of operation in operation 69％ １４％ Damaged Oil Factoris restart by 21st, March 17％ 3.2 Specially erected SS (set in refuges) In primary and mid school refuges, oil drums are used for petroleum and refueling container Emergent supply guarantees that victims can be provided with small amount of storage By cooperation with petroleum enterprises, timely and continuous supply can be guaranteed within a period Capacity of each oil drum is approximately 200L One refuge with about 100 oil drums and 20KL capacity of oil in maximum Oil is Refining Ability of Whole Japan (as of January, 2011) 718,000 (kiloliter per day) Fig.4 Restoration of refineries of primary oil distributers (Source: The Nikkei) On March 14, Japanese government decided to reduce private oil stock from 70 days amount pre-disaster to 67 days amount post-disaster With the implementation of focused solutions, oil stock is further reduced to 45 days amount The work ended by May 20 and the amount of oil stock resumed to 70 days On March 17, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry public their solutions of private oil stock change Tohoku region (1) Additional supply of tank truck from refineries in western Japan to Tohoku region (2) Function recovery of oil terminals along Pacific Ocean; Through SS and emphasized supply (3) Special solutions for regions out of supply (4) Guarantee the railway transportation; answer the request from evacuation sites; support to surroundings of Fukushima nuclear power station (5) Build special erected SS in evacuation sites; Kanto region (6) Transportation from western Japan; stock crash in available Kanto refineries (1) Corporation between entrepreneurs and cunning supply system; appoint emergent SS and emphasized supply (2) Normal railway transportation to Utsunomiya, Takasaki, etc Transportation planning for petroleum products to evacuation sites 4.1 Formulation of transportation planning By measures mentioned in chapter which carried out Ministry of Economy and Japanese government, the situation of evacuation sites in Tohoku Japan was improved little by little However, after the Tohoku Japan Earthquake, because of lack of refueling, no oil stove could be used and victims are suffering torture of severe coldness Also for insufficient supply of petroleum for evacuation site, car use is limited We can often see reports that through search for families could not be conducted because of car limitation After the earthquake, all refineries, oil terminals and SS in Tohoku Japan are damaged It becomes difficult to transport petroleum products to evacuation sites There are urgent needs to transport petroleum and refueling from non evacuation sites to refuges It is our most urgent task to work out plans for amounts and means of petroleum and refueling transported from non evacuation site stock to refuges In urgent and special period of time, it is better to use truck transportation with oil drum of 200L capacity Above problems could be solved by formulation with Linear Programming LP is a mathematical approach with which limited resources can be allocated effectively [3] After the Tohoku Japan Earthquake on Mar 11, LP is used in evacuation sites to make emergent petroleum and refueling transportation plan and flexible petroleum products supply plan T1 Oil Terminals T2 T2 T3 T4 10 11 13 12 14 Fig 5: Map of oil terminals and the special service stations Fig shows locations of each oil terminals and special SS (hereinafter “SS”), and possible roads available after the disaster Unavailable roads are showed with orange lines Available roads from each oil terminal are showed with dark blue, green, purple and yellow lines Along Tohoku Japan coastline, there are only oil terminals free of damage Petroleum and refueling are drummed and transported with trucks to 14 SSs Fig shows the necessary transportation time from oil terminals to SSs The four oil terminals are respectively represented by T1, T2, T3 and T4 14 SSs are represented by S1 ~ S14 Numerical values marked on nodes show necessary transportation time from oil terminals to SSs For example, it takes 2.5 hours from T1 to S1 Demand of S1 is 0.63 kiloliter Number beside the oil terminal represents possible supply For instance, the possible supply of T1 is 80 kiloliter According to rules about the time from oil terminals to SSs, demands of SSs and possible supplies from oil terminals, we can make quantitative transportation from oil terminals to SSs to satisfy their demands with minimum transportation time Table1: Expected demand quantities of gasoline and kerosene (kl/day) Fig 6: The time required for transportation from oil terminals to SS stations The formulation is constructed as follows Objective function: i 1 j 1 ( i = 1,2,…,4; j = 1,2,…,14) Subject to: x j 1 ij x i 1 ij  Ti  Sj (i = 1,2, …,4) (j = 1,2,…,14) xij  (i=1,2,…,4; j=1,2,…,14) Evacuee number (peple)Gasoline demand（kl/day）Kerosene（kl/day） 709 0.28 0.35 10174 4.07 5.09 40455 16.18 20.23 1171 0.47 0.59 1836 0.73 0.92 4808 1.92 2.40 2409 0.96 1.20 15098 6.04 7.55 17738 7.10 8.87 3172 1.27 1.59 3115 1.25 1.56 1269 0.51 0.63 1339 0.54 0.67 2587 1.03 1.29 Table2: transportation time from oil tanks terminals to SS stations (hours) 14 Z＝min  H ij xij 14 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 S14 (1) (2) (3) S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 S14 T1 2.50 3.50 5.00 3.00 5.00 5.50 4.00 5.50 5.00 5.50 6.50 7.00 9.00 7.00 T2 2.70 4.50 4.00 2.00 3.50 4.00 3.20 4.00 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 7.50 6.00 T3 4.00 6.00 5.50 3.00 2.50 2.50 3.00 4.20 5.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 6.50 4.50 T4 6.00 8.50 7.00 5.50 4.00 3.50 4.50 5.00 6.50 3.20 2.50 3.00 4.00 3.50 According to the LP function and data above, by using computer technologies, the optimal solution is obtained as shown in Table So the optimal solution of Z (the total sum of „transportation time‟ times „shipping quantity‟) is 353.025 Where, H ij ：the necessary transportation time from oil tanks i to SS station j (hours) i: index number of oil tanks, and it is integer j: index number of SSstation, and it is integer S j : expected demand quantity to SS station j (kl/day) Table3: Optimal solution of the decision variables (kl/day) S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 S14 T1 0.63 9.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 T2 0.00 0.00 36.41 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.59 15.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 T3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.65 4.32 2.16 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 T4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.81 1.14 1.21 2.32 Ti : available supply quantity from oil tanks i(kl/day) xij ：shipping quantity from oil tank i to SS station j (kl/day) The object is to minimize the total sum of „transportation time‟ times „shipping quantity‟ The constraints are: (1) supply amount for SSs should not be more than available amount oil terminals could afford; (2) as a decision variable, supply from oil terminal i to SS j must be non-negative 4.2 Case study Table shows assumed demand of petroleum and refueling from each SS The assumption is based on the facts that persons take one car and consumes 2L petroleum per day Besides, we can also work out demands of petroleum and refueling of SS based on assumption that 10 persons use one camp stove From Table 2, we can know road situation after Tohoku earthquake, and transportation time from oil terminals to SSs It shows necessary amount of petroleum and refueling transported from each oil terminals to mini SSs in refuges For example, the optimal amount from oil terminal T1 to service station S1 is 0.63KL per day Simulation Analysis 5.1 Simulation Logic In chapter 4, optimal amount of petroleum products from oil terminals to SSs are solved However, it is not solved about the optimal number of the truck used for transportation This transportation problem for earthquake and recovery is very important So, in this paper, a simulation model is applied to analyze this issue Based on Table and Table 3, results of LP solution is embedded into the simulation model for inputs And, a simulation logic flow is constructed as shown in Fig.7 Create Entity Trucks (loading petroleum products） Set the number of the trucks n=1 Assign transportation time and quantity of petroleum products Operation Read data (transportation time and quantity) Results of LP Simulation running Check the data (Do each data accord?) Results (the time for transport) n=n+1 Input Check (Is the number of Entity Trucks optimal?) No Optimal solution Yes End Fig.7 Flow chart of the simulation model In the Fig.7, it can be seen that the parameters are inputted through ReadWrite model By setting and regulating the number of trucks, the total finished time for the entire transportation system is obtained By changing the input information, this model can deal with other transportation planning In Table 3, the longest time of LP optimal solution is hours When the total time outputted from simulation is equal to hours, the simulation running cycle is ended 5.2 Simulation Result Fig.8 shows the results of the simulation running It is proved that one, two or three trucks cost a lot of time for transportation With increasing the number of trucks, the total finished time for the entire transportation system is changed But over fours trucks, the time is not changed It means that four trucks are enough to the transportation system In addition, the total time for four or over four trucks is hours that is equal to the LP optimal solution And each truck is distributed into each oil terminals It is not only proved that the simulation is effective, but also that the optimal number of trucks is achieved, which can save the limited resource for earthquake and recovery area Fig.9 shows the simulation animation for optimal four trucks Fig Result of simulation Conclusion The article mainly discusses petroleum products supply after Tohoku Japan Earthquake, especially provides linear planning programming to solve problem of necessary transportation for evacuation sites LP provides a very effective approach to make most favorable transportation plan within shortest time under limited resources and time It is expected that the research results can be applied if next disaster happens in future Note [1] Iwate Prefecture: Kamaishi City, Rikuzen-Takata City, Ohtsuchi Machi Miyagi Prefecture: Ishinomaki City, Higashi-Matsushima City, Onagawa Machi, Minami-Sanriku Machi Fukushima Prefecture: Shinchi Machi, Iidate Mura ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Asian CORE Program "Manufacturing and Environmental Management in East Asia" of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) REFERENCE [1] [2] [3] [4] Fig.9 Simulation animation for optimal four trucks http://www.paj.gr.jp/ http://www.meti.go.jp/earthquake/index.html Ignizio, J P., and T M Cavalier (1994) Linear programming Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hill R P Sadowski and D T Sturrock (2003) Simulation with ARENA Third Edition, Singapore: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc  ... Result of simulation Conclusion The article mainly discusses petroleum products supply after Tohoku Japan Earthquake, especially provides linear planning programming to solve problem of necessary transportation. .. Japan was improved little by little However, after the Tohoku Japan Earthquake, because of lack of refueling, no oil stove could be used and victims are suffering torture of severe coldness Also... refineries, oil terminals and SS in Tohoku Japan are damaged It becomes difficult to transport petroleum products to evacuation sites There are urgent needs to transport petroleum and refueling from