Nat Hazards DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2701-6 ORIGINAL PAPER Flood vulnerability among rural households in the Red River Delta of Vietnam: implications for future climate change risk and adaptation Pamela McElwee1 Huong Vu2 • Tuyen Nghiem2 • Hue Le2 • Received: May 2016 / Accepted: 26 November 2016 Ó Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 Abstract The Red River Delta (RRD) of Vietnam, one of the world’s most densely populated deltas, is already vulnerable to flooding events, and climate change forecasts project increased exposure to flood risk in coming decades due to changes in rainfall, storm intensity and frequency, and sea-level rise However, there is a relative neglect of this region in the literature on natural hazards and climate change, particularly on how floods in the RRD might affect poor people and different livelihood sectors, how flood risk is understood and acted on, and how flood impacts experienced by households influence local adaptation choices This article presents research undertaken in 2009–2010 to understand the impacts of flooding in a typical rural zone (Thai Binh Province) of the RRD to assess overall vulnerability, particularly the relationship between poverty, livelihoods, and flood impacts, as well as to assess the range of adaptation and flood risk reduction options currently used Our findings indicate that while poor households not appear to be more exposed to floods than others, their incomes are more sensitive to relative impacts from floods Yet poverty alone did not explain flood vulnerability, as age of household and livelihood sector involvement showed stronger relationships to flood impacts Flood risk perceptions were also uneven, but poor people did not seem to take less proactive flood risk reduction measures than others There are few long-term adaptation actions to flooding being taken by households of any income class, and there is a need for better community and government aid after flood events to help households cope with increased flood risks in the RRD, rather than relying on improvements in hard infrastructure, as is currently the dominant approach in the region, particularly given future forecasts of increased rainfall for northern Vietnam under climate change & Pamela McElwee pamela.mcelwee@rutgers.edu Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, 55 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (CRES), Vietnam National University, 19 Le Thanh Tong, Hanoi, Vietnam 123 Nat Hazards Keywords Flooding Á Vietnam Á Vulnerability Á Poverty Á Climate-dependent livelihoods Á Adaptation Introduction Climate change is likely to bring a multitude of new regional weather changes, many of them water-related, and Asia is particularly vulnerable to these trends Asia already accounts for the largest number of flood events in recent decades (Douben 2006), and forecasts indicate that parts of the region are likely to see flood events rise in frequency and scale (Chang 2010; Hirabayashi et al 2013) Forecasted exposure to floods globally indicates that the countries of Southeast Asia face particularly strong increases in risk in the future due to a combination of development decisions that put people in the path of floods, along with projected future climate change impacts (Neumann et al 2015a; Winsemius et al 2015) Thus, there is an urgent need to assess current vulnerability and adaptation to flood hazards in this part of the world, and to identify ways in which future risks can be better anticipated and managed through vulnerability reduction efforts (Jongman et al 2012) This is particularly true for countries like Vietnam, where there are dense populations living in low-lying areas, and who are currently subject to regular flood events even in the absence of climate change Vietnam was ranked fourth in a 2009 global ranking of total populations exposed to floods (UNISDR 2009), given a long coastline and high numbers of people living in these exposed areas, with over 80 major flood events recorded between 1985 and 2010 in the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database (http://www.dartmouth edu/%7Efloods/Archives/index.html) Floods have been the second most hazardous climate event in Vietnam after hurricanes, with over 5000 killed and 25 million affected in the past half century (IMHEN and UNDP 2015) Regionally downscaled climate change scenarios for Vietnam indicate that floods are likely to worsen in the future, due to changes in amount and seasonality of rainfall, along with sea-level rise of up to m in low-lying deltas (MONRE 2009; Bangalore et al 2016) Indeed, higher precipitation events leading to increased flooding already appear noticeable in climatic patterns in some regions of Vietnam (Souvignet et al 2013) These risks are compounded by poor development decision making in sectors such as forestry, hydroelectric development, and infrastructure that can increase flood risks (Beckman 2011) Therefore, more needs to be known about how existing floods impact households, the different types of social vulnerability to floods, and how households are coping with or adapting to floods There is a particular need to understand whether poor households or households with specific types of livelihoods are more vulnerable to flooding in Vietnam A recent global report on poverty and climate impacts has noted that poor people are often more impacted by floods, as their incomes are more dependent on weather, their housing and assets are less protected, and they are more prone to health problems (Hallegatte et al 2015) Other studies confirm that poor people tend to be more exposed to floods as they often settle in poorer quality and cheaper lands in floodplains; they tend to be sensitive to losses in that they lose relatively more when hit by floods than wealthier households; and they have a lower capacity to cope with and adapt to flood impacts due to lower access to savings, borrowing, or social protection (Cutter et al 2000; Brouwer et al 2007; Braun and Aßheuer 2011) Climate-sensitive livelihoods can be another factor in flood vulnerability; 123 Nat Hazards activities like farming and fishing can be particularly damaged by floodwaters (Thomas and Twyman 2005; Paavola 2008; Gentle and Maraseni 2012) These two types of social vulnerability have linkages, as globally, more poor households tend to be dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods than wealthier ones (Davies et al 2009) Yet there have been relatively few studies in Vietnam specifically on how floods differentially affect poor people and different livelihood sectors, such as in terms of exposure and sensitivity, and how flood impacts experienced by households influence local adaptation choices (Birkmann et al 2012; World Bank and AusAID 2013) This is particularly true for the Red River Delta (RRD) that dominates northern Vietnam, as this region, despite being densely populated and impacted by major floods in recent years, has been mostly neglected in the academic literature Much more attention has been paid to the Mekong (Nguyen 2007; Few and Tran 2010; Dun 2011; Birkmann et al 2012; Few et al 2013) and Perfume River basins (Tran et al 2008; Tran et al 2009; Tran and Shaw 2010), and urban flooding and climate change impacts in major cities like Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Can Tho, Hue, and Danang (Hung et al 2007; Hung et al 2010; Birkmann et al 2010; Bich et al 2011; Tu and Nitivattananon 2011; Razafindrabe et al 2012) Much less is known about vulnerability and adaptation to floods in rural areas of the RRD, as only a few studies are available (Tinh 2011; Dang et al 2011) This lack of attention is serious, due to the fact that in terms of total numbers of population forecasted to experience flood hazards in Vietnam as a result of future climate change, the RRD is predicted to be the most affected region of the entire country (Bangalore et al 2016) Given this dearth of information and the importance of the RRD, this article presents research undertaken in 2009–2010 to understand the impacts of flooding in a typical rural area there Our aim was to assess exposure to floods; overall vulnerability, particularly the relationship between poverty, livelihoods, and flood impacts; and to assess the range of adaptation and flood risk reduction options currently used in the RRD, given the fact that floods are predicted to increase in both intensity and frequency in the future Our findings indicate that while poor households not appear to be more exposed to floods than others, their incomes are more sensitive to relative impacts from floods Yet poverty alone did not explain flood vulnerability, as age of household and livelihood sector involvement also were correlated with flood impacts, which we explain in terms of settlement histories and investment strategies of households Flood risk perceptions were also uneven, but poor people did not seem to take less proactive flood risk reduction measures than others, which is a potentially positive sign for future planning Finally, qualitative work with households impacted by floods revealed strong needs for community and government aid after flood events, particularly as private insurance is nonexistent in this area, and previous disaster aid has been mostly ineffective in helping households adapt to longer-term flood hazards that are projected for this region Background: flood risk and vulnerability in Vietnam 2.1 Flood regimes in Vietnam The northern, central, and southern regions of Vietnam have traditionally had divergent ways of coping with flood hazards, and the lack of information about and attention to flood risk and vulnerability in the RRD, while other areas of Vietnam have seen much more research, is likely due to the misperception that the RRD has sufficient infrastructure in the 123 Nat Hazards form of dams and dikes to prevent large-scale flooding In the Mekong Delta, slow-onset yearly floods have prompted an adaptation regime of ‘‘living with the floods’’ (Huu 2012; Ehlert 2013), while in central Vietnam short slopes and high risk of flash floods have focused efforts on preparedness and disaster risk reduction projects (Beckman 2006; Tran et al 2008; Tong et al 2012) In the north of Vietnam in the RRD, floods usually occur primarily after storms or extreme rainfall events, and the focus has been on infrastructure for flood prevention, including investments in reservoirs, river and sea dikes, and dredging (Pilarczyk and Nuoi 2005) However, recent flood events in the RRD have pointed out the deficiencies in this approach, as existing infrastructure has proved inadequate for extreme rainfall-induced floods, and household losses have been substantial (IFRC 2008; UN 2015) The future holds more flood risk for Vietnam under climate change, particularly the RRD, as forecasts indicate changes in flood hazard patterns in terms of timing, intensity, and duration can be expected (Ngo-Duc et al 2014; Giang et al 2014) Monsoonal rains have been tending to come earlier in the season than in previous decades, and increases in flood peaks have been documented for all regions of Vietnam (with the exception of the Red River, due to storage reservoirs built in the upstream) since 1961 (IMHEN and UNDP 2015) The overall predictions for the end of the twenty-first century under medium greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are that the dry seasons will get drier, and in the rainy season, larger volumes will fall in shorter periods, exacerbating floods in places that already experience them In the RRD, rainfall is expected to increase at a higher rate than any other part of the country (MONRE 2009) (see Table 1) These hazards are combined with existing high densities of population in the RRD who are likely to be exposed and potentially vulnerable to these future flood hazards (Bangalore et al 2016) 2.2 Vulnerability to floods in Vietnam Floods are the most frequently experienced climate risk in Vietnam, according to the national Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS), which covers all provinces and regions and assesses household well-being approximately every years According to VHLSS data, floods cause the most income damage of all climate events at the household level in Vietnam (Arouri et al 2015) Overall, 10% of all communes (the lowest level of state government) in Vietnam were affected by at least one flood in 2010 Table Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to period of 1980–1999 projected for Vietnam’s regions under a medium emission scenario (B2) Source MONRE (2009) Climatic region Decades in the twenty-first century 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Northwest 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.7 7.4 Northeast 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.3 Red River Delta 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.3 7.9 North central coast 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.7 South central coast 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 Central highlands 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 Southeast and Mekong Delta 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 Bold indicates Red River Delta 123 Nat Hazards (Kozel 2014) Several studies have pointed out, based on the VHLSS data or case studies of particular floods, that floods have negative impacts on household welfare in Vietnam, as well as leading to death and injury (Thomas et al 2010; Bich et al 2011; Navrud et al 2012), and the poorest households in Vietnam seem to be disproportionately impacted (Birkmann et al 2012; Rubin 2014) The channels by which poor households in Vietnam experience floods are related to both exposure and sensitivity Poor households often settle in flood plains or in low-quality housing, increasing their exposure to flooding For example, a study in the Mekong Delta found 38% of the region’s poor but only 29% of the region’s non-poor lived in frequently flooded areas (Nguyen Van Kien 2011) Another study in Hue city in the central region of Vietnam found that poor households experienced flooding at rates more than 40 cm higher in their houses than richer homes built with higher elevations (Tran et al 2008) This increased exposure of the poor leads to increased mortality from floods; deaths from disasters (including floods and storms) correlate strongly with poverty rates in Vietnam’s provinces, according to one study (Rubin 2014) Evidence from the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi Minh City’s urban wards indicates that exposure to floods has led to higher health risks among the poor, including both waterborne and respiratory diseases (Few and Tran 2010; World Bank and AusAID 2013) Exposure also relates to the ability to prepare in advance for flooding; a study in Hoi An city in the central region noted that poorer households found it more difficult to protect household assets from floods, as they did not have second floor storage areas in their houses, or could not afford to pay workers to move goods to safety in time (McElwee et al 2010) Sensitivity and vulnerability are often used interchangeably, and refer to the fact that loss and damage may relate more to the socioeconomic or cultural situation of a household rather than their physical exposure, including indicators like poverty status or the types of livelihood activities they pursue, such as agriculture and other high-risk and climatedependent activities Previous research from Vietnam confirms the links between poverty, climate-sensitive livelihoods, and vulnerability One study in the central region of Vietnam noted that more poor households reported a ‘‘high impact’’ from flood hazards than the middle class or rich (Casse et al 2015), while another study in the same region found that flood damage made up a larger portion of annual household income for the poor (26% of income) versus only 14% of the non-poor (Navrud et al 2012) A study from the Mekong Delta found that poor households were more likely to experience submerged homes, job losses, reduced income from fishing, and temporary evacuation during floods than those who were better off (Nguyen and James 2013) Sensitivity also relates to information access, as poor households may receive less early warning information in order to prepare for flood risks if they cannot afford TVs or mobile phones (Bruun and Casse 2013) Further, while floods are often indiscriminate, and can hit both poor and wealthy in the same area, it is often the poor who have fewer reserves to aid in recovery or in longer-term adaptation (Arouri et al 2015; Casse et al 2015) Floods can therefore be one factor in pushing near-poor people into poverty if there is not sufficient safety-net and livelihood support to aid in coping responses (Beckman 2006; Miller 2006) Local institutions, informal safety nets, and local social capital are enormously important in responding to disasters and climate events, and poor households may have trouble accessing these forms of assistance, as well as access to more formal government disaster support, whose coverage in Vietnam can be spotty (Casse 2013; Chau et al 2014b) Yet all too often, reports from Vietnam not focus on these social factors of vulnerability and risk Much literature on flooding focused on Vietnam uses methods that conflate vulnerability simply with physical exposure (Hien et al 2005), or uses overly 123 Nat Hazards general indexes which have very few indicators related to social vulnerability, particularly at household levels (Dinh et al 2012; Ho et al 2013; Chau et al 2013, 2014a) Thus, there is a need for a closer look at social vulnerability to flooding in Vietnam, particularly in the RRD Study area and methods The Red River dominates northern Vietnam, with a total catchment area of 86,660 km2, fed by tributaries including the Thao, Lo, and Da Rivers The lower delta consists of six different mouths (the Thai Binh, Ninh Co, Tra Ly, Ba Lat, Van Uc, and Day Rivers) that fan out from the main Red River and empty into the Gulf of Tonkin in the East China Sea over 200 km of coastline (see Fig 1) The lower RRD lies south and east of the capital of Hanoi, covering an area of nearly 1.3 million hectares over nine provinces (4% of the total area of Vietnam), and is characterized by mostly agriculture and aquaculture production 58% of the delta is less than m below sea level (Tinh 2011) The RRD is the most densely populated area of the country, with a total population of over 17 million people, and a population density that can reach 1225 persons per km2 (Devienne 2006) Much of this population is engaged in climate-sensitive livelihoods, particularly farming and fishing (Adger 1999) The RRD has a strong monsoonal climate; around 80% of the total annual rainfall occurs during the 6-month season from approximately late May to early November, with an average rainfall of 1900 mm/yr (Tinh 2011) Typhoons from the South China Sea which bring sudden and torrential rains and high winds to coastal areas are also a factor in the fall months, and on average, the RRD is hit by six typhoons a season (Kelly 2001) Changes in the frequency and severity of flood events have been documented for the RRD, with a rise in the average number of days of flooding per event in the past half century (Khanh and Le 2001) Further, while July and August were traditionally the flood months in the monsoon, flood events are now falling throughout early summer to winter Storm surges and sea-level rise are also predicted to increase due to climate change, with severe consequences for flood risk, especially for the coastal populations (Neumann et al 2015b) The RRD is protected by two dike systems: river dikes of 3000 km length that control floods from the Red River and its tributaries; and a sea dike of 1500 km in length Some of these dikes were first built more than a thousand years ago and upgraded during the French colonial period (Smith 2002) A survey in 12 northern provinces found 14% of local dikes to be in bad condition, 73% in average condition and only 13% in good condition (Tinh 2011) This can be attributed to the fact that collective contributions to the maintenance of local dikes, channels, and canals have been in decline in the post-socialist era (Adger 1999) Although irrigation and drainage in many polders of the RRD were upgraded in the 1990s with international development aid, floods still cause damage, especially when pumping stations cannot keep up with excess water (Ritzema et al 2008) Other problems include poor land-use planning, as currently much land which is designed for agricultural production has been converted into industrial or urban uses, without flood prevention measures Unlike many other flood-prone areas of the world (Brown and Damery 2002), there are no systematic hazard maps for the RRD to guide zoning and planning Thus, there are reasons to think flood vulnerability in the RRD might differ from other areas of Vietnam, due to the lack of hazard maps, unregulated development, and overreliance on infrastructural and technical means of flood risk reduction, such as dikes 123 Nat Hazards Fig Map of Red River Delta system and site of field research Source Base map from (Tuan and Shannon 2010) Therefore, to determine the impact of flooding on rural areas of the RRD, we undertook research in 2008–2009 in one typical area (Thai Binh Province) that had experienced flooding in the last 10 years Thai Binh is a mostly rural province approximately 70 km southeast of Hanoi, and has been the leading province of the RRD in rice productivity, which can reach 8–10 tons/year in some areas Aquaculture in fresh and saltwater areas has developed in recent years, but agriculture remains the dominant income source Both the Tra Ly and Red Rivers run through Thai Binh Province, and much of the province lies below river level and thus relies heavily on river dikes and pumping for drainage We 123 Nat Hazards selected Kien Xuong district for field research as it had experienced a major flood caused by excess monsoon rains in recent memory (September 2003) at the time of the research, and because Kien Xuong is predicted to be one of the top 20 districts in the whole country in terms of population exposed to flooding under future climate change scenarios (Bangalore et al 2016) The total number of people who would be exposed in Kien Xuong under 200-year flood risks would be over 200,000 people, or close to 90% of the entire current population of the district (around 235,000 people) We conducted interviews with 151 households in four villages of Kien Xuong in summer of 2009 after pretesting of questionnaires in fall 2008 We choose two flood affected communes (Tra Giang and Quoc Tuan) and chose two villages in each site (Truc Tam and Duc Duong villages in Tra Giang and Dac Chung Bac and Dac Chung Trung in Quoc Tuan) We excluded non-flood-affected households out of the village census roles, in consultation with key village informants, as we were interested in flood impacts and social vulnerability of those affected We selected households to be interviewed based on the proportion of population size of the village by randomly selected every kth household remaining on the village census lists for interviews with a standardized survey, which was conducted with either the head of household or the spouse The authors guided the survey data collection, along with five university students working as surveyors, with all interviews conducted in Vietnamese Our overall questions related to channels of vulnerability by which households were effected by floods—did these risks relate to location within the village, type and amount of assets, characteristics of livelihoods, or other social factors, which we tested by collecting detailed income measures for before and after flood events within surveyed households We also conducted focus group discussions with over 50 participants Topics discussed in focus groups included histories of climate events in the local area and different adaptation measures to floods undertaken by the community and their efficacy Provincial, district, and commune government officials (27 total) in different sectors dealing with climate and water management issues were also interviewed These tools were all aimed at outlining the differential types of vulnerabilities and responses to flood events that existed in this representative site of the RRD Results 4.1 Household demographic data Households in Kien Xuong district that were interviewed tended to reflect demographic trends in the RRD region: namely, an aging population continuing to reside in the countryside, while children often migrated to Hanoi or other areas for work The average age of the household survey respondent was 55, and households tended to be fairly small (3.55 members), with less than one child under 16 still residing in the home per household All respondents were literate, with an average educational level of years of schooling (equivalent to lower secondary school training) The residents were primarily farmers, with 100% of households reporting at least some farm income from the year before the survey was administered The large majority of households owned their own rice lands, while a smaller percentage also owned or had access to fishponds as a source of income (see Table 2) Small livestock was also an important source of income (from pigs and chickens, primarily, although a few wealthier households had buffalo or cattle) 123 Nat Hazards Table Basic demographic characteristics of the respondents Source Household survey, 2009 Characteristics Percentage male respondents SD 68% Average age 55 Percentage HH with a male head 89% Years of schooling of HH head Average number HH members 3.55 1.44 Average number of children still living at home per HH 73 Average per capita income 19,883,364 VND (1132 USD) 20,011,435 VND (1140 US) Percentage HH with farm income at the time of survey 100% Percentage HH owning some irrigated rice land 99% 11.91 2.04 Average landholding of irrigated rice land 0.21 13 Average landholding size (residential, agriculture and other, e.g., forest or aquaculture) 0.33 21 Percentage HH with livestock income 88% Percentage HH owning or renting a fish pond 26% Percentage HH owning own house 100% Percentage homes made of concrete or brick 72% Percentage homes with only one story 95% Percentage HH with electricity 99% Percentage HH with domestic tubewell water 98% Percentage HH owning at least one motorbike 72% Percentage HH owning at least one boat 30% Housing stock varied somewhat in the researched area; 72% were concrete or brick, while the rest were a mix of brick and wood (considered less permanent and stable) Only 5% of households had homes of more than one story, either two story or one story with roof mezzanine, known as gac lung, which could be used to store assets during floods, while other households had to make with less stable ‘‘attics’’ of bamboo floors in the rafters of one-story homes (see Fig 2) All households owned their own homes and most had electricity and tubewell water Other common household assets included motorbikes and boats, both of which can be useful in transporting people, livestock, and household goods to safety during floods 4.2 Experience of flood events Kien Xuong district had experienced several severe flood events in living memory (see Table 3) Focus group discussions revealed key differences in the types of floods, most of which were caused by excess rainfall or storms or were ‘‘out of season’’ from the traditional flood months of the early fall, as well as the historical severity of floods experienced, such as in fatalities and damage Community discussions confirmed that most households perceived a 2003 flood to have been the most serious in recent memory, so we used this event as our key research topic The 2003 flood was experienced as a series of heavy rains from the 10th to the 14th of September, leading local rivers (the Thai Binh and Tra Ly) to 123 Nat Hazards Fig House types in Kien Xuong (two story with mezzanine, right; one story with mezzanine, center; and one story with no mezzanine and traditional tile roof, far left) The two houses on the right also have raised foundations, while the traditional one on the left does not Table Past flood events in Thai Binh in past decades Source Key informant interviews in the field, 2009 Year Impacts in Kien Xuong, Thai Binh 1968 The back dike was broken causing a severe flood, and then the sea dike was broken Much flooding and waterlogged land for a long time At least seven people died 1971 Severe storm and broken sea dike, leading to extensive evacuation and damage, and multiple deaths 1976 Flood caused multiple deaths 1978 Heavy rains caused severe flood 1980 Heavy rain Lost two-thirds of rice crop to flood 1986 Heavy rain Severe flood, some house damage 2003 Heavy September rains leading Tra Ly river to overflow; back dike and small dike for production broken, causing days of waterlogging All rice fields were flooded and destroyed, some houses as well 2008 Sudden severe rain in September (Tropical Storm Hagupit) led to loss of some crops overtop river dikes, and the dikes were broken in several places The local dike was said to be weaker than in the past due to a number of migrant families who had moved into land right next to the dike, building houses too close to the structure Pumping stations were unable to keep up with the floodwaters, and the drainage system canals functioned very poorly, preventing water from draining out of fields back to the river Fifteen people were 123 Nat Hazards Table Relationship of economic class to flood vulnerability Source Household survey, 2009 Variable Poorest 1/3 (n = 51) Middle 1/3 (n = 50) Richest 1/3 (n = 50) Sig Total land owned 265 31 407 004** Total income in 2007 5,341157 15,718,220 38,881,560 000** Depth of water in yard 415 437 458 676 Depth of water in house 06 117 111 517 Total property and HH asset damage 896,471 566,400 3,151,600 488 Agricultural damage (absolute) 2,070,549 1,875,540 4,753,060 033** Relative agricultural damage (% of income from this source lost by flood) 89% 46% 48% 002** Livestock damage 542,759 1,084,440 4,353,800 0.016** Relative livestock damage (% of income from this source lost by flood) 66% 22% 38% 160 Business/trade damage 43,137 207,600 31,000 316 Aquaculture/fishing damage 792,255 579,000 3,292,000 0.02** Total cost of damages 4,383,798 4,694,280 15,811,460 000** Time to recover from floods 476 days 303 days 515 days 0.04** ** indicates significance of the results (p \ 05) were ‘‘highly affected’’ by the flood of 2003, ‘‘moderately affected,’’ or ‘‘little to no affect’’ (Table 7) These self-assessments not surprisingly were highly correlated with total income damage, as those noting they were ‘‘highly affected’’ had nearly three times the income and property damage as the ‘‘moderately affected’’ group (sig at 0.00) We assessed how each of these groups may have differed from each other using Kruskal–Wallis tests, which showed that the age of the household head and the educational level were correlated with higher self-reported impacts Age showed a clear correlation, with less impacted households more likely to be older This is likely due to the fact older households were more long settled and more likely to have land inside dikes in protected areas and thus less exposed to floodwaters, as opposed to younger families who were more likely to have marginal lands they had settled more recently that were not protected within the dikes Educational levels however did not show a clear relationship to impact, and were likely Table Comparison of different levels of impacted households Source Household survey, 2009 Variable Highly affected HH (n = 89) Moderately affected HH (n = 55) Low affected HH (n = 7) Sig Age of HH head 53 57 65 0.011** Educational level 8.79 9.4 7.14 0.035** HH size 3.76 3.29 2.86 0.094 Total land owned 3592 2868 2502 0.076 Total average income in non-flood year 22,751,775 16,519,272 9,845,714 0.133 Reported total damage from floods 11,152,663 4,201,704 3,597,142 0.000** ** indicates significance of the results (p \ 05) 123 Nat Hazards more related to age (with older households having less schooling than younger ones, typical of older eras where schooling was less universal) Household size and land owning size did not predict levels of damage To explore further what impact the age of the household had on the damages incurred, we divided the sample into older households, middle-aged ones, and younger households (Table 8) Older households tended to have both smaller landholdings (as many older households had distributed some of their land to children who had separated into their own households already) and lower incomes overall While they had lower amounts of absolute crop damage, their relative crop damage was higher (70% losses), a finding similar to those households that were classified as poor They had less absolute and relative damage in aquaculture than middle-aged households, however The total cost of damages was significantly lower for older households than for both middle-aged and younger households There were not statistically significant differences in time to recover across the ages of households or in the levels of inundations experienced in yards or houses We also tested our sample for any differences between male-headed households (135) and those with a female head (12) (the remaining households did not know exactly who was officially the household head) There were no significances between the two groups in any indicators related to prosperity (income or land ownership) or damages and impacts from flooding This is likely due to the fact that some households keep the female registered as the head of the household, while the male is absent doing migrant work in Hanoi or other areas In such cases, the male of the household would be able to return to the village Table Impacts on households in different age classes Source Household survey, 2009 Variable Older HH (65 and over) (n = 43) Middle aged HH (41–64) (n = 91) Younger HH (under 40) (n = 17) Sig Total land owned 2278 3862 2717 000** Total estimated yearly income at time of survey 12,881,419 23,600,407 17,697,059 006** Depth of water in yard 48 43 36 518 Depth of water in house 13 09 029 286 Property and HH asset damage 836,512 1,944,176 1,101,765 459 Agricultural damage (absolute) 1,911,837 3,344,055 2,971,176 012** Relative agricultural damage (% of income from this source lost by flood) 70% 59% 55% 854 Livestock damage 977,814 2,491,810 1,811,294 069 Relative livestock damage (% of income from this source lost by flood) 45% 34% 76% 514 Aquaculture/fishing damage 800,581 2,080,549 600,000 014** Relative aquaculture damage (%of income from this source lost by flood) 91% 198% 113% 510 Business/trade damage 46,512 11,319 117,647 483 Total cost of damages 4,600,465 10,167,129 7,401,882 000** Time to recover from floods 373 456 449 452 ** indicates significance of the results (p \ 05) 123 Nat Hazards in advance of flood forecasts or immediately afterward to help, and therefore these households did not unduly suffer from labor shortages In a few cases of a female-headed households being a widow, children of the woman in the area or neighbors would come help her in advance and after floods 4.5 Coping responses to flooding There are two sets of possible responses to flood hazards: preparation (ex-ante) to anticipate flood exposures, vulnerability, and risk and try to reduce these, and coping, adaptation, and aid (ex-post) after floods to try to restore households to a pre-hazard state as much as possible Immediate preparation responses to floods in Kien Xuong usually focused on listening to the weather forecasts and stockpiling food (rice, salt, and instant noodles) and water (see Table 9) Residents also worked to reinforce houses (tying down roofs, putting sandbags around foundations), trimming trees to avoid falling branches, and reinforcing livestock pens and ponds (with sandbags or ropes) Households also commonly donated some time or money to a local relief fund to prepare for flood impacts Ex-post actions were primarily focused on immediate disaster relief: repairing damaged houses, fields, and ponds Assistance after the floods came primarily from self-mobilized sources, including borrowing money from banks or relatives, while only 3% of households said they relied on government support post-flood Friends and relatives were often the first line of defense for immediate coping, as people could seek shelter in relatives’ houses, rely on relatives to help them clean up afterward, and to provide loans if financial assistance is needed after flooding happened The poorest third of households tended to take both ex-ante and ex-post actions that were largely similarly to those of the sample as a whole, although the poor did tend to donate labor or time to the community flood fund before floods, and less afterward Poorer households spent more time in ex-ante actions to protect property and livestock, especially in low cost actions like trimming trees around the house or tying down livestock pens The poor were also less likely to have built roof mezzanines and were more likely to have sold some assets to cover flood losses Overall, however, there were few ex-ante anticipatory actions that might reduce overall flood vulnerability taken by any households, and longer-term adaptation actions after floods were also quite limited; only a few households (less than 10%) indicated changes to housing style (adding mezzanines to store goods above flood level, raising foundations, or strengthening construction) Almost no households indicated that they might change production patterns, or migrate out In t test comparisons of those households who took private actions to cope with floods, or who contributed to community actions, we found only a few differences For private actions, those who did some preventative measures tended to have larger households (indicating more laborers to help prepare) and larger landholding sizes Income was not a significant factor of those who prepared in advance In terms of contributions to community activities, there were no significant differences between those households who contributed and those who did not (Table 10) 4.6 Perceptions and concerns over future flood risks The concept of risk refers to the fact that hazards like floods are experienced through the interplay between exposure and vulnerability (Surminski and Oramas-Dorta 2014) Perceptions of exposure risk varied among surveyed households; only 8% of people surveyed 123 Nat Hazards Table Ex-ante and ex-post actions to deal with floods Source Household survey, 2009 Action % of all HH who did % of poorest HH who did Stockpiling food and water 69 65 Donating to local fund for disasters 68 76 Reinforce house 42 41 Listening to early warnings 40 37 Reinforcing livestock houses/ponds 34 43 Trimming trees 31 45 Moving household items to safe place 19 16 Moving family members to safe place 12 12 Preparing evacuation routes/equipment 12 Harvesting crops early 0 Restoring production activities (repairing ponds, replanting fields) 63 63 Repairing damaged goods/houses 36 37 Contributing labor and money to local relief fund 36 14 Borrowing money 21 25 Ex-ante actions (before the flood) Ex-post actions (after the flood) Rebuilding/strengthening house Building mezzanine for roof Asking for support from relatives Contributing to dike/road repair Selling assets 10 Planting trees to protect against wind, rain Changing crop patterns/calendar Diversifying production Migrating for work Asking for government aid Bold indicates a notable difference between the number of poor people who took an action and those who were better off reported getting flooded regularly (every years or less), while 22% said flooding every 10 years was more common The majority of the households reported they ‘‘rarely’’ experienced flood events, indicating that most felt low risks from exposure to floods However, when rare floods were experienced, such as in 2003, vulnerability to these floods was widespread, with flood losses on average one-third of the median household income There was no consensus among interviewed households over future flood risks or the impacts of climate change; exactly half of the interviewed villagers said that future risks were likely to be more severe, while half said risks would be less, or they did not know Those who thought the future would be worse expressed concern that climate change would cause more rain, and the building of more infrastructure would block water flows; together this was considered likely to cause more serious floods in the coming years Given this uncertainty about the future, most villagers surveyed had no specific plan to reduce risk or prevent impacts from future flood events (48% had no plans) Slightly less 123 Nat Hazards Table 10 Comparison of households that undertook private and community actions on floods Source Household survey, 2009 Took ex-ante action related to individual property (n = 100) Did not take action related to individual property (n = 51) Sig Took action (expost or ex-ante) related to community (n = 130) Did not take action related to community (n = 21) Sig HH head age 55.7 55.7 507 54 59 120 Size of HH 3.72 3.22 041** 3.6 3.24 285 Landholding size 3515 2791 049** 3362 2714 201 Average income in non-flood year 19,126,680 21,367,059 517 20,787,115 14,288,714 168 than half of survey respondents (44%) expressed interest in finding non-farm jobs to earn money to cover household losses caused by floods and other natural disasters, but only small numbers (around 5% of households) had actually acted on this idea after the 2003 flood Most preferences for off-farm jobs were local, as long-term migration was seen to be less desirable for the mostly older households who remain as agriculturalists in the RRD Discussion: social indicators and exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to deal with floods in the RRD Following interest within the climate change community in assessing the degree to which households may be impacted by their exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to weather and climate risks, like flooding (Turner et al 2003), we discuss below how these indicators were linked to social positions and livelihoods in our research site, and what the implications may be for adaptation and other policy actions in the future to reduce flood risk 5.1 Poverty, livelihoods, and exposure Poor households in the surveyed villages did not seem to experience greater exposure to floodwaters, at least in terms of estimated water levels in yards and houses, which were fairly even across all income classes The fact that the RRD is somewhat more egalitarian with regard to incomes and landholding sizes than other regions of Vietnam may suggest that lower income inequality may result in distribution of flood exposure risk somewhat more equally among households (Cuong et al 2010) Further testing of this proposition in other areas would be worthwhile, given that other reports exploring the impact of inequality at the district level on flood impacts have been inconclusive (Casse 2013) The main characteristic of those who experienced less exposure to floods in Kien Xuong (those households self-assessing as low to no damage from the flood) was that they tended to be older households, indicating that early settlement in a village may confer some protection from floods, if households’ land and property are located in more secure areas within protective dikes Many newcomers or young families leaving their parents’ 123 Nat Hazards households have had to settle on the edges of villages, and may plant vegetables and other secondary crops on more marginal lands outside protective dikes (see Fig 4) Although local authorities had advocated converting these fields outside dikes to fish ponds only, this had not yet happened; further, these fish ponds would have also been vulnerable to flooding, given the large losses by aquaculture-producing households in the 2003 floods The implications of this discussion of exposure are that studies in Vietnam which rely only on mapping locations of households against flood forecast maps may not capture the true dimensions of vulnerability (e.g., Dinh et al 2012) That is, poor people, at least in the RRD, may not be more exposed to flood risk than the non-poor, but as we note below, they are still more sensitive to the exposure they experience 5.2 Poverty, livelihoods, and sensitivity Vulnerability of households depends not just on their physical exposure to floods and resulting impacts, but also on their sensitivity to these impacts In terms of sensitivity, there were clearer links to poverty Poorer people had higher relative income damage, losing the equivalent of 89% of their previous year’s agricultural income in the flood, compared to the middle class or rich, who lost under 50% Similar findings of highest relative damage among the poor are also reported elsewhere for Vietnam, indicating that despite the different types of floods experienced, the impacts on poor people are remarkably similar across the country (Casse 2013; Casse et al 2015; Navrud et al 2012) Livestock damages were similarly uneven, though less statistically significant Fig Typical vegetable fields and housing along the Tra Ly River in Kien Xuong on right which are vulnerable to flooding, and irrigated rice fields behind the dike on the far left side of the river 123 Nat Hazards Richer households had more absolute income damage, experiencing total damages and losses from the flood nearly three times as high as poor and middle-income households (over 15 million VND vs 4–5 million VND) (Table previously) This indicates that the rich also have particular vulnerabilities, such as those who have invested significantly in new or risky ventures (in the RRD, such activities include duck ponds or aquaculture); such a finding on the absolute damages incurred by the rich is echoed in other parts of Asia (Brouwer et al 2007) Households with climate-sensitive livelihoods also were more impacted by floods than others who reported more business and trade income Exposure of agricultural households to the 2003 flood was greater than any other livelihood sector, given the timing of the flood event in early September before the fall rice harvest This was reflected in the large number of households involved in agriculture who reported impacts and damage, while those with business or trade income noted very little income impacts to these sources In terms of overall damage within a sector, however, aquaculture was the single most exposed livelihood, as damages from the flood were nearly 90% of the value of this sector compared to the year before (Table previously) This perhaps suggests a more cautious approach to promoting aquaculture as an alternative to rice production in the RRD; if this sector is particularly exposed to income losses from floods, this may be an increasingly risky venture in the future under climate change Reported recovery times were ambiguous across income classes; while other parts of Vietnam report faster recovery among wealthier households (Razafindrabe et al 2012), in our study sites even richer households often expressed concern for longer recovery times than middle-class households The more households earned from natural resource-dependent income (including both rich and poor), the more reported time they tended to need for recovery from damages, indicating that type of livelihood, rather than absolute income levels, may be a better indicator of vulnerability, particularly for the RRD These inconsistent patterns of absolute and relative vulnerabilities further indicate that climate vulnerability is complex and interconnected to overall entitlements and asset mobilization, which can be difficult to predict into the future (Few 2006) Other social indicators of vulnerability, such as being a female-headed household or being elderly, did not seem to correlate with sensitivity to flood damage Indeed, older households appeared to experience less overall flood exposure, as noted above 5.3 Poverty, livelihoods, and adaptation responses Households in our study site primarily had reactive, rather than proactive, flood responses, which tended to be aimed at the short term: listening to weather forecasts, battening down houses, or evacuating goods and people These actions were nearly evenly spread across income classes, with only a few differences in poorer people choosing cheaper prevention responses (such as trimming trees rather than building onto houses) and tending to donate labor and money to the community fund ahead of floods, rather than afterward, perhaps in anticipation of the difficulties they might have in donating after events (Table previously) Unlike reports of adaptation measures taken by farmers in flooded areas of the Mekong Delta (Dang et al 2013), which have focused on changing production calendars and varieties, such actions were very limited in our site in the RRD, which we attribute to low awareness of flood risk, given the relatively infrequent flood experiences over the past 30 years, and overconfidence of authorities in the ability of infrastructural approaches such as drainage and dikes in preventing floods Focus groups revealed that many households felt they and authorities had grown complacent about floods once better water drainage and 123 Nat Hazards pumping equipment had been installed in 1985 Further, households reiterated multiple risks (‘‘rui ro’’) they faced: livestock diseases, health risks, motorcycle accidents, and crop pests among them, and floods were only one among many issues that required attention and investments Other studies have indicated that individuals’ willingness to take precautionary action against climate hazards is often a function of complex factors, such as risk perceptions, previous experience with floods, and financial means, rather than simple household indicators like income or age (Grothmann and Patt 2005; Grothmann and Reusswig 2006; Lin et al 2008; Whitmarsh 2008; Ho et al 2008; Schad et al 2011) The fact that other risks often co-occur along with floods, such as pests, inflation, poor health, and other concerns, may reduce households’ awareness and concern about flood risk in isolation (Lo´pezMarrero 2010) While most households in Kien Xuong took some active flood response measures, particularly in evacuation, these were the most pressing and often least cost options; other options, particularly those that required capital, like buying boats or changing house building styles, were less frequently taken In other more urban areas of Vietnam that have seen rises in floodwater frequency, increasing house floor level is one of the most common strategies of ex-ante adaptation (Birkmann et al 2010) Yet this was an action taken by only a very small number of households in the study site, due to high upfront costs and uneven perceptions of the seriousness of risk of flood hazards Similar results have been reported elsewhere for other areas of rural Vietnam (Dang et al 2013) There were limited ex-post adaptation responses as well in Kien Xuong, even for cheaper measures; only a small number of households had changed cropping patterns or seeds, or ‘‘hard adaptation’’ measures such as building small impoundments and drainage systems in fields in response to flood pressures Households in focus group discussions reiterated that they understood that rice was a crop that was vulnerable to floods, given timing of rice harvests and locations of rice fields in low-lying areas, but they considered rice to be ‘‘least risky’’ when compared against alternative crops that might have no market, or livestock who often were vulnerable to pests and diseases The low levels of adaptation actions taken in the study area are also likely attributable to a lack of clear understanding of what the future will bring for households, with half of the surveyed households thinking that climate change will bring more flooding, and the other half of households surveyed not knowing or thinking flooding would be less in the future The evenly divided opinion over the causes of flooding and uncertainly about future climate changes may have contributed to the lack of longer term or more proactive measures in Kien Xuong, and similar findings regarding the uncertainty of climate and flood risk have been reported elsewhere in Vietnam (Phong Tran et al 2008; Dang et al 2014) The good news is that poverty levels alone did not appear to prevent coping or adaptation actions from being taken: those households that had not taken proactive prevention measures ahead of the flood did not appear to be poorer than those who had taken measures (Table 10 previously), as income levels were not a significant predictor of action The more significant indicator was the household size, with smaller households appearing to be able to take fewer preemptive measures, and households with smaller landholdings, who perhaps felt less urgency to try to take some risk reduction measures The implications for assistance, from communities or government actors, are that smaller households with labor shortages may need to be particularly targeted for help in advance of floods, such as through sending volunteers to help these households evacuate or move household goods Communities as a whole had also taken few steps to limit impacts or reduce vulnerability, although they did have relief funds in each locality to which a majority of 123 Nat Hazards households contributed, and which were generally spent on buying emergency water or food, and paying for labor for cleanup activities These types of mutual assistance and support have been shown elsewhere to be particularly useful for lower-income and more vulnerable households (Braun and Aßheuer 2011), and they were used in Kien Xuong to make up for the fact that national government disaster funds had been skimpy or nonexistent after flood events in this area Focus group discussions highlighted areas that households felt more governmental support for flood risk reduction would be useful In preparation for flood events associated with heavy rains in areas of inconsistent drainage, the type most regularly experienced in Kien Xuong, households stated they would benefit from well-publicized forecasting so that harvests can be brought in advance, or fish collected and held in protected traps Longer-term adaptation to these types of floods will require better infrastructure investment by the national state combined with local community response (e.g., keeping canals clear, keeping pumping machines maintained and up to date), and households suggested flood-specific loans through banks could help households adapt For rarer extreme flood events (those associated with out of season or unusually large volumes of rainfall, or dike breaks or other infrastructure failures), households stated that the existing emergency response will need to ensure everyone is reached for evacuation, and that potentially risk reduction instruments like insurance could be helpful, while in the longer-term households agreed that they will need to make hard decisions about relocating houses or investing in different house styles in those areas far away from drainage or not in protected dike zones However, there is little move within Vietnam toward more robust ‘‘flood risk management (FRM)’’ as a holistic approach to flooding which incorporates both hard infrastructural investments and soft approaches like land-use planning or insurance instruments (Lempert et al 2013) While there have been some experiments with insurance microprojects, nationwide lending in agricultural or flood insurance was essentially absent at the time of the study (Skees et al 2007; Wang et al 2010) While researchers have found that insurance is useful for not only covering losses of those affected, but can be used to identify risk areas and raise awareness about preventative measures as well (Surminski and Oramas-Dorta 2014), there is little discussion among authorities regarding flood insurance as a useful tool in the RRD There is also little discussion in Vietnam of how a FRM approach could incorporate more participatory approaches that include local knowledge, stakeholder negotiations, and public prioritization for infrastructure, as is the case in FRM approaches elsewhere (Challies et al 2015; Evers et al 2016) Rather, Vietnam’s flood responses in the RRD in particular remain resolutely top–down, and there is little participation in collaborative planning for reduced flood risk or longer-term adaptation (Chau et al 2014b) There is a certain degree of culturally embedded risk perception that will be hard to change, in that there is a sense that it is the job of government and authorities to provide flood infrastructure, not those of communities, and so to get them involved in FRM will require trial and error (IMHEN & UNDP 2015) The path dependence of existing flood control measures—focused on dike upgrades to the exclusion of other approaches— means that these engineering solutions may be crowding out alternatives, and might even be contributing to moral hazards by encouraging settlement in flood risk zones (Dang et al 2011; Hung et al 2007) These are all issues that will need to be confronted by both authorities and affected communities in the RRD 123 Nat Hazards Conclusion Future climate forecasts for Vietnam suggest that coastal and delta regions of the country will experience an increase in the amount of people exposed to floods Therefore, there is a need to understand differential vulnerability and existing adaptation actions in these regions Within the RRD, our results indicate that vulnerability to flood events is highest across certain livelihood sectors (agriculture and aquaculture, while business income is little affected) These results confirm that those with climate-sensitive livelihoods are most impacted by floods, leading to two possible policy suggestions for government focus: first, promotion of some livelihoods (namely aquaculture) that have been prioritized in recent years may in fact increase exposure of households to flood risks, and may need to be rethought Secondly, business and trade income livelihoods showed the least impact from floods, and may suggest a possible alternative to promotion of climate-sensitive income sources While poor people in particular not appear to be more exposed to floods at our fieldsite, they are more sensitive in the fact that floods inflict higher amounts of relative damage to the poor, especially within the agricultural sector Richer households were also affected, though, and experienced higher levels of absolute damage Age was also revealed as an important variable as well While the aging population of the RRD could have potentially been a social vulnerability, in that older households might have less labor to expend on flood prevention and recovery activities, the data showed that older households actually tended to experience less flood exposure, with lower damage estimates overall in the older household group In comparison with research on climate adaptation in other areas of the world (Agrawal and Perrin 2013; Amaru and Chhetri 2013), the actions taken thus far in the RRD to adapt to floods are quite limited, and activities were mostly limited to some ex-ante preparation and some limited ex-post coping While short-term coping can in fact contribute to building long-term resilience (Jabeen et al 2009), the majority of households interviewed simply did not have any idea about what they should be doing into the future to help them adapt to flood risk under future climate change This is likely due to cognitive uncertainty among households over the direction and causes of future flood risk Overall, however, the data did not show strong indications that the poor took less adaptive actions than others, which is good news for future planning Nearly all types of people felt they could take some basic flood prevention actions, especially low cost ones, and community support as measured in willingness to donate money or labor to flood relief locally was generally high This is a good foundation on which to build resiliency to climate change-induced risk in the future However, while these data on poverty and other social vulnerabilities are generally more positive than might be expected, the near absence of government support for flood victims, along with a lack of insurance to cover losses, has meant that households in the RRD must cover flood damage themselves Repeated floods are likely to take a toll on household welfare in the long term, especially as the most affected households felt that it took them a year or more on average to recover from a serious flood If such serious flood risks continue to persist and even grow, the long-term impact could be to move households away from high risk but high-return activities (like aquaculture and livestock) and back to lower risk but lower-return activities (like rice) This could have a long-term impact on economic growth and attempts to move households out of poverty and into the middle class (Hallegatte et al 2015) 123 Nat Hazards The evidence from Thai Binh Province suggests that existing coping mechanisms of advanced warnings and flood preparation, combined with more information on longer-term forecasts and an institutional framework that facilitates more participatory and robust future land-use and livelihood planning in the face of climate change, could potentially lead to better long-term adaptation to flood risks, but this is not yet in place in most areas of Vietnam (Adger 2000; Birkmann et al 2012) How to improve the resiliency of households and communities in the RRD to floods in the face of climate change, and what kinds of mechanisms or institutions can facilitate that capacity, is still an open question, and is clearly an area that needs more attention in the future Acknowledgements Funding for the Vietnamese authors was provided by the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) The authors thank Dr Herminia A Francisco, Director of EEPSEA, for her support of this work both financially and intellectually, as well as advice from Dr Bui Dung The, Hue University Support was also provided by an Arizona State University travel grant to the first author The authors would like to thank the director of the Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, Dr Hoang Van Thang, for his strong support of this work, and for the administrative assistance of Ha Thi Thu Hue, Pham Viet Hung, and Dang Thu Loan Conversations with Mook Bangalore and Le Anh Tuan at the World Bank 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