NGHIEN cufu TRAO D £ | KHA NANG TRA N0 VAY NGAN HANG CUA DOANH NGHIEP d THANH PHO CAN THOf PGS.,TS Lg Khumg Ninh Trudng DH Cdn Tha ThS LS Thi Thu Diim Vieteombank Chi nhdnh Cdn Tha Tom tat: Trong thdi gian qua, cdng vdi dd phdt triin cda he thd'ng ngdn hdng, na xd'u cda cdc ngdn hdng thuang mai (NHTM) d nUdc ta cung t&ng Un ThUc te khien cho viec ddnh gid khd ndng trd n g vay cda khdch hdng nhdm gidp kiim sodt vd gidm thiiu rdi ro tin dung cho cdc NHTM trd nin hit sdc quan Vi vdy, muc tiiu cda bdi vHt Id xdc dinh dnh hitdng cda cdc yiu t^ din khd ndng trd ng vay ngdn hdng cda cdc doanh nghiep bdng cdch si? dung md hinh hdi quy binary logistics trin ca sd he th6ng dU liiu thu thdp tie 214 doanh nghiip dugc chgn ngdu nhien d thdnh phd Cdn Tha Ket qud nghiin cdu cho thdy don bdy tdi chinh, ROA va dong tiin cd dnh hUdng din khd ndng trd ng vay cua cdc doanh nghiep mdu khdo sdt Trin ca sd dd, bdi viit de xudt cdc biin phdp gidm thiiu rdi ro tin dung cho cdc NHTM Tic khda: Khd ndng trd ng vay, ng xdu, ngdn hdng thuang mai, doanh nghiip vd ndi long tieu chudn cho vay dUdi dp lUc cua canh t r a n h Lam phdt cao, ty gid bie'n Trong thdi gian qua, h e t h i n g ngdn hdng ddng kho ludng, gid y l u to ddu vdo tdng, thi nudc t a p h d t t r i e n n h a n h cd v l quy md ldn trudng ddu thu hep, gid san pham b l p s l lugng NHTM, qua dd ddng gdp ngdy cdng bdnh khid'n doanh nghigp gdp nhieu khd quan t r g n g vdo t i l n t r i n h cdng nghi$p hda khdn N i u khdng cd t i l m lUc tdi chinh du - hign dai hda dd't nUdc Tuy nhidn, ng xd^u m a n h , doanh nghidp se md't k h a ndng t h a n h cung theo dd t d n g ldn Thdt vdy, n i u vdo euli todn, thdm chi cd t h i di d i n phd sdn Trong ndm 2005 ng xd^u cua todn hg t h i n g ngdn di^u ki^n dd, v i | c ddnh gid k h a ndng trd nd hdng chi khoang 17.500 ty dong thi d i n gida cua doanh nghidp trd n e n h i t sde khd khdn, ndm 2011 s l ndy da ldn d i n 75.000 ty dd n h i i u ngdn h a n g cd xu hddng chl cho d i n g Ty Ig ng xlfu t r e n t i n g du ng cua cd h§ vay cdc khdch hdng cd du tdi sdn dam bdo t h i n g Id 2,2% vdo euli ndm 2010 da tdng ldn Mde du v4y, phdt sinh ng xdu thi vige xd 3,1% vao e u l i t h d n g 6/2011, dd ng cd ly tdi s a n dam bao d l thu hoi ng cung rd^t khd n d n g m a t v i n c h i l m d i n 47% (Nguyen phUc t a p bdi gid tri thu hoi eua tdi san dam Dde Hung, 2012) Thuc t l ndy cho thdy khd bdo phu thuge vdo t i n h t h a n h khodn cua tdi ndng k i l m sodt rui ro tin dung cua cdc NHTM san cung nhU cd c h l bdo vg chu ng cua Ludt nudc ta cdn h a n c h l , chUa ddp dng duge yeu Phd sdn eau ngdy cdng cao ci}a thuc t e SUc khde cua doanh nghi$p se a n h hudng ThUc t r a n g ng xfi^u nhU trdn Id hg qud t i t y l u den k i t qud kinh doanh cua ngdn hang Y\ cua tdng trUdng tin dung ndng md rgng vdy, d l ddm bao an todn eho hoat d | n g tin Gidi t h i ^ u C6ngngh$ n g a t i H a H g I Sl76»Thfing7/2012 I > » » NGHIEN CUTU TRAO DOI dung va b a n c h l t i n thd't, ngdn h d n g cdn tinh vd phUdng phdp dinh lugng Theo phUdng k i l m soat ehdt che rui ro tin dung Ndi cdch phdp dinh tinh, khd ndng trd ng cua doanh khdc, ngdn h d n g phdi ddnh gid dugc khd nghi§p dugc ddnh gid bdng md hinh 5C, dd Id n d n g trd ng vay cua khdch hdng d l quyd't p h i m chd't (character), ndng li^c (capacity), vin dinh cap tin dung cho phu hgp Do dd, (capital), mdi trudng kinh doanh (condition) muc tieu cua bdi v i i t Id xdc dinh cdc yd'u td' vd t h i c h i p (collateral), b i n canh cdc md hinh quyd't dinh khd ndng trd ng vay ngdn hdng khdc It p h i b i l n bun Tuy nhidn, phdn tieh cua doanh n g h i | p d l td dd d l xud't bi#n phdp dinh tfnh it n h i i u mang tinh chu quan ndn cd t h i t h i l u tin cdy giam t h i l u rui ro tin dung cho cdc NHTM Cd s d ly t h u y d ' t vd md h i n h n g h i a n ci2u D i l m khdc bi$t gida thi trudng tin dung vd thi trudng h d n g hda thdng thudng Id ngUdi cho vay gdp phdi rdi ro khdng trd ng tfnh lidn thdi gian cua giao dich tin dung Ndi cdch khdc, khodn cho vay hdm chi dUge hoan t r a d tUdng lai; khoang thdi gian dd, mgi bid'n dgng ddn d i n rui ro tin dung d i u cd the xay nhUng ngdn hdng khdng kiem sodt hd't thdng tin b i t dd'i xUng vd chi phi giao dich Ngdn h a n g cd n h i i u cdch d l gidm t h i l u rui ro khdng thu hoi dugc ng, nhd yeu cdu khdch h a n g the chdp tdi san cd gid tri it n h £ t Id bdng vdi gid tri khodn vay Tuy nhien, cdch ldm dd se ddn d i n h a n c h l tin dung mgt cdch t h i l u khoa hgc n h i i u khdch h a n g cd uy tin nhung lai t h i l u tai sdn t h i ehd'p Ngdn h d n g cung cd the tdng lai s u i t N i u biet rd xdc s u i t k h o n g trd ng cua tdng khdch hdng vd de ddng k i l m sodt hg thi ngdn h d n g cd t h i k i t hgp lai s u i t vdi tdi sdn t h i chd'p d l ddm bdo an todn cho khodn vay Song gid dinh ndy khdng ton tai thUe t l thdng tin ba't doi xdng nen ngdn hdng thudng phdi h a n c h l tin dung (Stiglitz vd Weiss, 1981) De t r d n h h a n che' tin dung ddn d i n vigc bd sdt khdch h a n g t i t , ngdn h d n g phdi ddnh gid duge k h a ndng t r a ng cua khdch hdng Cdc nha nghidn cdu (Ali vd Daly, 2010; Fidrmuc vd Hainz, 2010; Psillaki vd cdc tdc gid, 2010) vdn dung nhieu phUdng phdp d l ddnh gid khd ndng t r a ng cua doanh nghigp Cd hsii phUdng phdp dugc stf dung p h i biln; phuung phdp dinh Econgnghe n g a t i h d H g s l 76 •Thdng 7/2012 Dd'i vdi phUdng phdp dinh lugng, cdc nhd nghidn cdu (Fidrmuc vd Hainz, 2010; Psillaki vd cdc tdc gid, 2010) ed dung thdng tin td bdo edo tdi ehfnh cua doanh nghidp Bdo edo tdi chinh cd ba phdn: bdng edn d i i k l todn, bdo edo k i t qud boat ddng kinh doanh vd bdo edo luu chuyin t i l n t^ Td thdng tin bdo edo tdi ehfnh, ede nhd nghidn eUu tfnh todn cdc chf so' tdi chinh, sau dd dua vdo md hinh hli quy d l Udc lugng dnh hUdng cua ehung den khd ndng trd ng cua doanh nghidp Chi s i d d u tien dugc sd dung Id s l ng vay ngdn hdng N i u vay ng cdng nhieu, doanh nghidp cdng cd nguy cd ki$t qud tdi chfnh hay khong t h i thuc hidn nghia vu t r a ng (Lally, 2003) N h i i u nghidn cdu v l m l i quan hg giQa ng vd khd ndng t r a nd (Beattie vd cdc tdc gia, 2006; Bigelli vd Sanchez - Vidal, 2012) nhdn thdy m l i quan hg nghich b i l n giQa ddn biy tdi chfnh (ty s l gida ng vay vd v i n ehu sd hQu) vd khd ndng trd ng cua doanh nghidp Ndi cdch khdc, n i u ddn bdy tdi chinh cdng cao thi khd n d n g t r a nd cua doanh nghidp cdng t h d p Theo ly t h u y l t cd'u true vd'n, cdu true v i n t i i Uu eua doanh nghidp d a t dugc t i i thilu hda dUdc chi phi dai di^n lidn quan de'n nd vd v i n c l p h d n (Alonso vd cdc tdc gid, 2005) M$t cdch d l gidm chi phi dgi di^n Id giam ddng t i l n tU bdi ddng t i l n tU vd ddu tu thdi qud Id hai vdn d l thudng g^p d ngudi dai di#n (hay qudn 1^) doanh nghidp Nli cdch khdc, ddu td thdi qud thudng xdy d cdc doanh n g h i | p cd ddng t i e n tU cao, ma ddu t u thdi qud thi hi^u qud t h i p ndn khd NGHIEN CUu TRAO DOI n d n g trd ng eung se thd'p n i u doanh nghidp vay d l ddu t u (Jensen, 1986) Do dd, ddng t i e n t u cd quan hg nghich bien vdi khd n d n g t r a ng cda doanh nghidp Thdng thudng, n i u hi§u qud kinh doanh (do ludng bang chi s l ROE hay ROA) cdng cao thi doanh nghigp cdng de trd ng vd muon trd ng d l tiep tuc vay nhdm khai thdc cdc cd h l i sinh lgi cao Ngodi ra, ngUdi qudn ly doanh nghigp ludn cd thdng tin (ngi bg) t i t hun cdc nhd tdi t r g t d ben ngodi (nhU ngdn hdng hay e l ddng); b i t dd'i xUng thong tin k h i l n eho ehi phi huy dOng v i n td bdn ngodi eao hun chi phf sd dung v i n ndi bd (hinh thdnh td lgi nhudn giQ lai) Do dd, theo 1^ thuylt trdt tU phdn hang, nhd qudn ly se Uu tien sd dung nguIn tdi trg ndi bd trUde, sau dd mdi d i n cdc nguIn huy dgng td ben ngodi (Watson vd Wilson, 2002; Bessler vd cdc tdc gia, 2011) NhU vdy, cdc doanh nghiep kinh doanh hidu qud se cd khd ndng t r a ng td't hdn bdi cd t h i chu ddng sd dung nguon tU tdi trg vdi chi phi thd'p M dau tu Do dd, hi#u qua kinh doanh (hay cdc ehi so' ROE vd ROA) se cd quan he dong bien vdi k h a ndng trd ng cua doanh nghiep NGHIEN COru TRAO D | B i n g 2: M6 t& m a u kh&o 8