ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES SPATIO-TEMPORAL ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AKAKI -KALITY SUB CITY ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA THESIS SUBMITTED TO DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY ANDENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PRESENTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES BY AYENEW ESHETU ALEMAYEHU ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA JUNE, 2017 xv |Page GEOGRAPHY AND ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES SPATIO-TEMPORAL ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AKAKI KALITY SUB CITY, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA THESIS SUBMITTED TO DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY ANDENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PRESENTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES BY AYENEW ESHETU ALEMAYEHU ADVISOR: - PROFESSOR TEGEGNE GEBRE EGIZEHEBER (PHD) ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA JUNE, 2017 AND Addis Ababa University School of Graduate Studies This is to certify that the thesis prepared by Ayenew Eshetu Alemayehu Entitled “Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Land use and Land cover changes and its impact on Akaki Kakity Sub-City, Addis Ababa Ethiopia” and submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in (Geography and Environmental Studies, specialization: (Population, Resource and Development) complies with the regulations of the university and meets the accepted standards with respect to originality and quality Advisor Signature Date Signature Date Signature Date Prof Tegegne Gebre- Egizeheber Examiner Dr.Tesfaye Shiferaw Examiner Dr.Ermias Teferi Chair of Department of Graduate program Declaration I hereby declare that the thesis entitled Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Land use and Land Cover Change and its impact on Akaki Kakity Sub City, Addis Ababa has been carried out by me under the supervision of Professor Tegegne Gebre- Egizeheber (Phd), Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa during the year 2016/17 as part of Master of Art in Geography and Environmental studies specialized on Population, Resources and Development I further declare that this work has not been submitted to any other University or Institution for the award of any degree or diploma Ayenew Eshetu Signature: _ Date: Place of submission: - Addis Ababa University Chair of Department of Graduate program The study has been submitted for examination with my appropriate approval as an adviser Name: - Professor Tegegne Gebre Egizeheber (Phd) Signature:- Dedication I dedicate this thesis manuscript to my late grandmother Abebech Bogale (Abaye) for nursing me with affections and love and her dedicated partnership in the success of my life Let your soul rest in peace Acknowledgment First and foremost, I would like to thank the Almighty God for giving me all the patience and strength to complete my study against all odds Several individuals and organizations deserve acknowledgement for their contributions to the study I am indebted to the invaluable support of my advisor Professor Tegegne Gebre Egziabher for his unreserved advice, guidance, and constructive observations starting from the very commencement up to thesis completion Without his encouragement, insightful and professional expertise, the completion of this work would have not been possible Secondly, I would like to thank all the staff of Ethiopian Mapping Agency (EMA);(GIS and Remote sensing staff members) Specially, W/ro Hareg (GIS officer) for their cooperation My gratitude also goes to Akaki Kality Sub-city Administration Land Development and Management office ,Ato Mohammed Tarekeg (GIS and Map preparation case team leader ),Ato Kehase G/Hiwot (Land Development and Renewal officer ;Compensation and Rehabilitation officer ).Ato Sasa Tilaye (Displaced Rehabilitation case team officer ) for their warm hospitality and assistance I would also like to express my heartfelt thanks to the farmers who responded to my numerous questions with patience during data collection time I would like to extend words of appreciation to the Communication officers of Akaki Kality Sub-City Administration ,Woreda Administration (Communication officers in particular) and CSA Staffs Finally, I am very grateful to express my appreciation and thanks to my family for their love, encouragement and support To my beloved Father Ato Eshetu Alemayhu , to my Brother Samuel E who guided my life thoughtfully during my early age In addition, my Sisters and brother Hirut E, Senait E and Amare E without their support, I would not have been able to complete my graduate study successfully Thank you! Contents Declaration………………………………………………………………………………….… iii Dedication……………………………………………………………………… …………………….…iv Acknowledgement…………………………………………………………………………… …v Contents vi List of Table… x List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………….… xi List of Equations…………………………………………………………………… …….… xiii Abbreviation xiv Abstract ………………………………………………………………………… xv CHAPTER ONE Error! Bookmark not defined 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the study 1.2 Statement of the problem 1.3 Objectives 1.3.1 General objective………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1.3.2 Specific objectives…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………3 1.4 Research questions 1.5 Significance of the study 1.6 Scope of the study 1.7 Organization of the Study 2.CHAPTER TWO CONCEPTUAL AND LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Conceptual Literature 2.1.1 Land use/Land cover change………………………………………………………………………………………………6 2.1.2 Causes of LULCC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………6 2.1.3 Land use/Land cover change in Ethiopia……………………………………………………………………………… 2.1.4 Application of Remote sensing and GIS for Land use/Land cover analysis……………………………9 2.1.5 Empirical Literatures………………………………………………………………………………………………………12 3.CHAPTER THREE 15 MATERIALS AND METHODS 15 3.1 Description of the Study Area 15 3.1.1 Location and Topography…………………………………………………………………………………………………….15 3.1.2 Climate……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………16 3.1.3 Vegetation……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….17 3.1.4 Population……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….18 3.2 Research Methodology 19 3.2.2 Satellite Imagery…………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………19 3.2.3 Socio-economic baseline supplementary data………………………………………………………………… 20 3.2.4 Household Questionnaire Survey………………………………………………………………………………………21 3.2.5 Focus Group Discussion (FGD)………………………………………………………………………………………… 21 3.2.6 Image processing………………………………………………………………………………………………………………21 3.2.7 Development of classification scheme………………………………………………………………………………22 3.2.8 Image Classification………………………………………………………………………………………………………….23 3.2.9 Accuracy Assessment……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 24 3.2.10 Methods of Data Analysis……………………………………………………………………………………………….26 3.2.11 Sample size Determination…………………………………………………………………………………………… 26 3.2.12 Method of Socio Economic Data Analysis……………………………………………………………………… 28 4.CHAPTER FOUR 29 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 29 4.1 Land Use and Land Cover Analysis 29 4.1.1 Land Use and Land Cover Mapping………………………………………………………………………………… 29 4.1.2 1986 LULC……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 30 4.1.3 2000 LULCC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 33 4.1.4 2016 LULCC………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… …36 4.1.5 Accuracy Assessment of 1986………………………………………………………………………………………….38 4.1.6 Accuracy Assessment of 2000………………………………………………………………………………………….39 4.1.7 Accuracy Assessment of 2016………………………………………………………………………………………….40 4.1.8 LULCC Detection…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….42 4.2 LULC Change Map………………………………………………………………………………………………………….46 4.2.1 LULC change map from 1986-2000……………………………………………………………………………………46 4.2.2 LULC change map from 2000-2016…………………………………………………………………………………….48 4.2.3 LULC Change map of 1986-2016……………………………………………………………………………………… 50 4.3 Analysis of Socio-Economic Survey 51 4.3.1 Age - Sex Composition………………………………………………………………………………………………………51 4.3.2 Marital Status……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………52 4.3.3 Literacy Status of Respondents………………………………………………………………………………………….52 4.3.4 Employment Status of Respondents…………………………………………………………………………………53 4.3.5 Land use land cover change………………………………………………………………………………………………54 4.3.6 Causes of Land use land cover change……………………………………………………………………………….56 5.CHAPTER FIVE 58 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 58 5.1 Conclusion 58 5.2 Recommendations 60 Bibliography 61 Appendix 66 I Questionnaires 66 II GPS Points 70 II Field work photographs 75 Girma , K (2003) GIS based analysis of land use and land cover, land degradationa and population changes: A study of Boru Metero area of south Wello, Amhara Region Unpublished MA thesis, 105 Ismail, M., Pakhriazad, H., and Shahrin, M (2009) Evaluating supervised and unsupervised techniques for land cover mapping using remote sensing data Journal of Society and Space, 1-15 Jensen, J (2004) Introductory digital image processing: a remote sensing perspective New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Jonahtan (2011) Monitoring Ureban growth in great Logos:A case study using GIS to monitor urban growth of Lagos.Sewden,Stockolem unpblished MA thesis, 1-3 Jonatan , H (2011) Monitoring urban growth in great Lagos ; A case study using GIS to monitor urban growth of Lagos 1990-2008 and produced future growth prospect for tje city 140150 Li.X., and A.G.O (1998) principal component of stacked multi temporal images for monitoring of rapid urban expantion in the Pearl river Delta Internationa; Jornal of Remote semsing, 1500-1518 Lillesand, T.m., Kiefer, R.W., & Chipman, J.W (2008) Remote Sensing and Image Interpretation New York: Wiley Messay, M (2011) Land-use/Land-Cover Dynamics in Nonno District, Central Ethiopia Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa (Volume 13, No.1, 2011), 150 63 | P a g e Misganaw, N (2016) Urbanization and Its effect on surface runoff:A case study on Great Akaki River,Addis Ababa,Ethiopia Unpublished MA thesis Nesanet, D (2007) Land use and Land cover changes in Harenna forest and surrounding area,Bale mountains National park unpublished MA thesis, 11-13 Quentin, F B., Jim, C., Julia, C., Carole, H., and Andrew, S (2006) Drivers of land use change Melbourn, Australia.: Department of Sustainability and Environment and primary ndustries, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology Satterthwaite, D (2005) The under-estimation of urban poverty in low-and middle-income nations Poverty reduction in urban areas series, working paper, 60 70 Setegn, B (2013) Quarry rehabilitation planning of Akaki Kality sub city Unpublished Thesis, 120-125 Shewangizaw, D., and Michael, Y ( (2010) Assessing the effect of land use change on the hydraulic regime of Lake Awassa Nile Basin Water Science and Engineering, 110-120 Tamiru, A., Dagnachew, L., Tenalem, A., Yirga, T., Solomon, W., & Nuri, M (2005) Hydrogeology, Water quality and the degree of ground water vulnerability to pollution in Addis Ababa Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Turner, B., Meyer, W., and Skole, D (1994) Global land-use/land cover change:towards an integrated study Ambio, 91–95 Woldeamlak Bewket, Sterk, G (2005) Dynamics in landcover and its effect on stream flow in the chemoga watershedBluenile basin,Ethiopia Hydrol.process, 19, 450-460 64 | P a g e Wolman, M (1983) Population, Land Use and Environment Washington: National Academy Press Zeleke, G.and Hurni, H (2001) Implications of land use and land cover dynamics for mountain resource degradation in the northwestern Ethiopian Highlands Mt Res Dev 21, 180190 65 | P a g e Appendix I Questionnaires Dear respondent, My name is Ayenew Eshetu I am a postgraduate student at Addis Ababa University, in Population, Resource and Development Stream of the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies Currently, I am writing my thesis on assessments Spatio-temporal assessment of land use land cover change and its impact on Akaki kality sub city The study is for academic purpose If you agree to participate in this research, you will be doing so voluntarily and there will not be any monetary returns You are also free to refuse to respond to any questions when you not feel comfortable answering or withdraw from the research all together Hence, the responses from respondents are confidential Tank you in advance for your cooperation Questionnaire No 1: To be completed by household Head I Identification Administrative Unit: Region: Addis Ababa Akaki Kality sub city Name of Wereda 3.ketena 66 | P a g e II Household Head Characteristics Name of the household head _ Sex Male □ Female □ Age Marital Status Never Married □ Currently Married □ Divorced □ Separated □ 5.Widowed □ Education Illiterate □ literate 67 | P a g e □ Employment Situation Employment Factory worker Civil servant Self-employed Agriculture Total Number % III Land use/Land cover change Have you noted any change in the land use/land cover in your area over the past 20 years ? Yes □ No □ If your answer to the above question number is yes, what changes did you observe? LULC Change in settlement Change in eucalyptus Change in grassland Change in water 68 | P a g e Increase Percentage Decrease Percentage No change Percentage IV Causes of the land use/land cover change What are the causes for land use/land cover change in your area? Cause of change Expansion of urban area Population area Lack of land management Wood extraction Increase in crop price 69 | P a g e Number Percentage II GPS Points 476270 980932 Eucalyptus 473546 981375 Eucalyptus 473577 9813775 Eucalyptus 476713 986284 Eucalyptus 479532 987710 Eucalyptus 485201 987995 Eucalyptus 483206 983212 Grassland 483269 986823 Grassland 483523 987931 Grassland 10 484568 989135 Grassland 11 479658 986886 Grassland 12 477125 9987045 Grassland 13 475193 988185 Grassland 14 474401 988185 Grassland 15 472912 983782 Grassland 16 473862 982040 Grassland 17 475794 982927 Settlement 18 474084 989452 Settlement 19 473989 988755 Settlement 20 475063 988755 Settlement 70 | P a g e 21 474686 988280 Settlement 22 474464 985669 Settlement 23 473514 981977 Settlement 24 476238 981850 Settlement 25 475224 986488 Settlement 26 476555 986488 Settlement 27 478202 980457 Settlement 28 480070 977796 Settlement 29 484694 984764 Settlement 30 473767 987203 Cultivation 31 476227 983592 Cultivation 32 474908 981597 Cultivation 33 477156 978525 Cultivation 34 479373 983086 Cultivation 35 479183 986221 Cultivation 36 479152 988375 Cultivation 37 482002 9879000 Cultivation 38 483839 988818 Cultivation 39 485328 986189 Cultivation 40 480229 985239 Cultivation 41 480197 983941 Cultivation 42 479405 983917 Cultivation 43 478170 982294 Cultivation 71 | P a g e 44 478582 981217 Cultivation 45 479025 980330 Cultivation 46 478233 979285 Cultivation 47 477125 978525 Cultivation 48 479278 980298 Cultivation 49 483269 981312 Cultivation 50 485645 982230 Cultivation 51 484564 985651 Cultivation 52 482161 987959 Cultivation 53 478863 987678 Cultivation 54 476396 987393 Cultivation 55 473166 986316 Cultivation 56 472560 983592 Cultivation 57 474844 981629 Cultivation 58 475098 983751 Cultivation 59 478170 984131 Cultivation 60 477790 986063 Cultivation 61 475336 987931 Cultivation 62 480830 987615 Cultivation 63 482287 985809 Cultivation 64 482351 987868 Cultivation 65 483459 987393 Cultivation 66 484409 987330 Cultivation 72 | P a g e 67 473641 984352 Cultivation 68 474116 983244 Cultivation 69 473736 981534 Cultivation 70 474654 980551 Cultivation 71 479373 977670 Cultivation 72 480070 978271 Cultivation 73 481781 979507 Cultivation 74 483301 981154 Cultivation 75 483618 982294 Cultivation 76 483934 982592 Cultivation 77 485740 982484 Cultivation 78 484979 983339 Cultivation 79 485486 984447 Cultivation 80 485011 985271 Cultivation 81 484409 985904 Cultivation 82 485898 986665 Cultivation 83 485360 937330 Cultivation 84 485518 988312 Cultivation 85 484029 988945 Cultivation 86 481084 987773 Cultivation 87 476745 987883 Cultivation 88 474939 989103 Cultivation 89 474654 987615 Cultivation 73 | P a g e 90 478776 981787 Cultivation 91 477853 984669 Cultivation 92 479437 983561 Cultivation 93 479310 981280 Cultivation 94 473957 989008 Cultivation 95 474749 988438 Cultivation 96 475003 987013 Cultivation 97 476428 986316 Cultivation 98 480070 987583 Cultivation 99 477695 983529 Cultivation 100 482224 9084036 Cultivation 101 482097 982484 Cultivation 102 482857 981249 Cultivation 103 481680 984637 Cultivation 104 479437 986417 Cultivation 105 479658 986538 Cultivation 106 477631 987583 Cultivation 107 478898 985461 Cultivation 108 479563 982896 Cultivation 109 479342 981534 Cultivation 110 479278 984542 Cultivation 111 473071 985144 Water 74 | P a g e II Field work photographs Ato Mohammed Tarekeg (GIS and Map preparation case team leader in Akaki Kality Sub city Land Development and Management office) On Jan,2017 Ground truth checking on Akaki Besika River Jan, 2017 75 | P a g e Ground truth checking cultivation area on Jan, 2017 Ground truth checking Eucalyptus area on Jan, 2017 76 | P a g e Ground truth checking settlement areas on Jan, 2017 Ground truth checking Quarry site Jan, 2017 77 | P a g e .. .ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES SPATIO- TEMPORAL ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AKAKI KALITY SUB CITY, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA THESIS SUBMITTED... Alemayehu Entitled Spatio- Temporal Assessment of Land use and Land cover changes and its impact on Akaki Kakity Sub- City, Addis Ababa Ethiopia and submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements... Abstract Spatio- Tempora Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change and its impact on Akaki Kakity Sub City, Addis Ababa Ethiopia Ayenew Eshetu Addis Ababa University The study was undertaken in Addis