MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HANOI NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATION - - TRAN VAN THUONG ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE THESIS OF GEOGRAPHY MASTER HANOI, 2017 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HANOI NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATION - - TRAN VAN THUONG ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE Specialisation: Physical Geography Code: 60.44.02.17 THESIS OF GEOGRAPHY MASTER Supervisor: Associate Prof Dao Ngoc Hung HANOI, 2017 i DECLARATION I certify that this thesis is my knowledge during of studying period The used data and documents in the study is fully righteous and it is completely different from all published results in the previous time I can be legally responsible for my pledge Hanoi, June, 2017 AUTHOR ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my special thanks to Associate Professor Đào Ngọc Hùng, who always encourages, help, advises, and give suggestions Without him, this achievement would not have occurred I would also like to thank Professor Nguyễn Trọng Hiệu for guidance, and kind editing of this thesis I also appreciate the knowledge gained through Dr Đỗ Văn Thanh during GIS and ENVI topics I am grateful to the lecturers, the staffs of Geography Faculty, Post-Graduation Department in the both Hanoi National University of Education and Ho Chi Minh City University of Education for assistance provided to me I am also in the debt of AMA Education Foundation Scholarship, NAGAO Scholarship, Mr Peter Mach, Ms Phương Diễm Hương, Associate Professor Trần Đức Tuấn, Ms Ngô Thị Hải Yến, and the family of Associate Professor Nguyễn Minh Tuệ who have given special help in finance as well as spirit It has greatly helped me for collecting database and field-research around my thesis This work has many external contributor The generosity of Mr Võ Văn Thông and uncles, aunts at Tien Giang, Long An and National Centre of Meteorology and Hydrology for providing data which related to my thesis My acknowledgement is also paid to my family and friends who always give me motivation My parents and foster parents are my beloved persons who I thank greatly Last but not least, my thesis will be unsuccessful unless the members of Assessment Council support and allow Many thanks for ideas and recommendations from member of the Council Due to the inadequacy of time and data, here has not been really perfect thesis The sympathy and ideas from readers will encourage to enhance the quality of projects in the future AUTHOR iii LIST OF FIGURES Fig 1.1 Administration of Tien Giang province 24 Fig 1.2 Rivers and canals network of Tien Giang province 28 Fig 2.1 The change in average temperature decade in Tien Giang province during period 1978 – 2015 33 Fig 2.2 The fluctuation of annual average temperature in Tien Giang from 1978 to 2015 33 Fig 2.3 The variation in seasonal average temperature in study area from 1978 34 Fig 2.4 The change in mean rainfall decade in Tien Giang province during period 1978 – 2015 35 Fig 2.5 The fluctuation of annual rainfall in Tien Giang from 1978 to 2015 35 Fig 2.6 The variation in mean seasonal rainfall in study area from 1978 to 2015 36 Fig 2.7 Scale and landing time of typhoon during period of 1978 – 2015 in coastal area from Binh Thuan to Kien Giang province 39 Fig 2.8 Changes in average sea level (a), maximum sea level (b) and minimum sea level (c) at Vung Tau oceanographical station 40 Fig 2.9 The fluctuation of average water level (a), maximum water level (b) and minimum water level (c) in Vam Kenh hydrological station 41 Fig 2.10 Changes in yearly temperature in Tien Giang province 43 Fig 2.11 Changes in temperature in winter (a), spring (b), summer (c), and autumn (d) 44 Fig 2.12 The rate of increasing annual mean temperature in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 45 Fig 2.13 Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to period of 1986-2005 46 Fig 2.14 Changes in rainfall in winter (a), spring (b), summer (c), and autumn (d) 47 Fig 2.15 The rate of increasing annual rainfall in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 48 Fig 2.16 The rate of increasing annual rainfall in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 49 iv Fig 2.17 The rate of inundation under sea level rise scenario100m 50 Fig 3.1 The frequency of monthly drought in Tien Giang province 50 Fig 3.2 The probability of drought classifications in study area 53 Fig 3.3 The probability of drought in dry (a) and rainy (b) season during period of 1978 – 2015 54 Fig 3.4 The rate of drought classification in study area 54 Fig 3.5 Normal Probability Plot of Model (response is RDI) 56 Fig 3.6 Versus Fits (response is RDI) 56 Fig 3.7 The change in yearly drought period of 2016 – 2035, relative to period of 1986 – 2005 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 57 Fig 3.8 The frequence of annual drought in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 58 Fig 3.9 The frequence of annual drought in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 59 Fig 3.10 The frequency of monthly drought period of 2016 – 2035 in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 (a) and RCP 8.5 60 Fig 3.11 The value of RDI in dry season under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios 61 Fig 3.12 The value of RDI in rainy season under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios 62 Fig 3.13 The frequence of drought in dry season in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 63 Fig 3.14 The frequence of drought in dry season in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 64 Fig 3.15 Over flowered at drain 3, in Go Cong Tay district in dry season 2012 65 Fig 3.16 Dredging river and canals 66 Fig 3.17 Rain water storage tank 67 Fig 3.19 Dragon fruit 68 Fig 3.20 The deserted fields during the salty season 70 Fig 3.21 Model of flora – rice – fish nexus in freedom (a) and dependent (b) 71 v LIST OF TABLES Table RDI classification 23 Table 2.1 The value and standard error of rainfall at three stations in study area for decade from 1978 to 2015 37 Table 2.2 The number of typhoons and tropical depressions which effected on sea region from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau during period of 1978 – 2015 37 Table 2.3 The data of typhoon and tropical depression which landed in coastal area from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau province during period of 1978 – 2015 38 Table 2.4 Characteristic of greenhouse gas concentrations scenario 42 Table 2.5 Sea level rise (cm) relative to period of 1986 – 2005 for scenarios 50 Table 2.6 Inundation in Tien Giang province 51 Table 3.1 The rate of monthly drought classification under scenarios (%) 60 Table 3.2 The consequence among constituents of nexus in study area 69 vi LIST OF ABBREVIATION CC Climate Change COP Conference of Parties ESD Education for Sustainable Development GIS Geographic Information System HCMC Ho Chi Minh City ICSU International Council for Science IPCC Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change MNRE Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment RCP Representative Concentration Pathways RDI Reconnaissance Drought Index SLR Sea level rise UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WCED World Commission on Environment and Development WMO World Meteorological Organization WRCP World Climate Research Programme vii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii LIST OF FIGURES iii LIST OF TABLES v LIST OF ABBREVIATION vi TABLE OF CONTENTS vii INTRODUCTION .1 The motivation for the topic Objective and mission .2 2.1 The objective of thesis .2 2.2 The task of thesis Data and limitation 3.1 Data 3.2 The constraint of thesis Perspective and method 4.1 Point of view 4.2 Methodology Value of thesis Structure of thesis CONTENTS CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1 The history of research on climate change and drought 1.1.1 In the world viii 1.1.2 In Vietnam 13 1.1.3 In study area 15 1.2 Theoretical basis of study 17 1.2.1 Weather and climate 17 1.2.2 Climate change and sea level rise .18 1.2.3 Drought .21 1.3 Overview study area 23 1.3.1 Geographic location 23 1.3.2 Natural conditions .25 1.3.3 The socio – economic in study area 30 CHAPTER SUMMARY 32 CHAPTER MANIFESTATION AND SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISING SEA LEVEL IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE 33 2.1 Manifestations of climate change and sea level rise in Tien Giang province 33 2.1.1 Temperature 33 2.1.2 Precipitation 34 2.1.3 Super storm 37 2.1.4 Sea and tide level rise 40 2.2 Scenario of climate change and rising sea level in study area 42 2.2.1 Temperature 43 2.2.2 Precipitation 46 2.2.3 Sea level rise .50 CHAPTER SUMMARY 51 72 Vietnam needs to actively cooperate in projects and programs related to regional climate change, such as the Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment; Mekong Sub-regional Cooperation on Mekong River Basin and Water Resource Management All of them will create more favorable conditions for provinces and cities in general and Tien Giang in particular to achieve the goals of responding to climate change Encouraging provincial, national, international organizations, individuals and enterprises support in finance for CC adaptation On the other hand, focus integrate CC issues into the plans and projects, relative to economic development and environmental protection, to increase investments in response to climate change However, the government needs to use a reasonable and effective way of investing that 3.3.3 Educational solutions 3.3.3.1 Strengthening the communication to enhance capacity and awareness of the dwellers Develop training programs for those directly involved in the response to climate change, especially remark on managers, planning officers, full time officers, and related staffs Increasing the role of media in propaganda, providing information as well as educate for improving awareness of the residents, related to impacts of climate change Try to integrated global warming knowledge into educational programs at schools Organize activities to help for the residents gradually mitigating of CC 3.3.3.2 Enhancing the role of transformative learning on adaptive capacity According to UNESCO (2012), “education as an essential tool for achieving sustainable development” Besides, it is crucial importance in the process of natural resources management and changing toward sustainability more broadly In both fields, different learning concepts have become popular, including social learning, transformative learning, or experiential learning 73 Transformative learning is considered as an effective method to change the frame of references of individuals, followed by transformations of value, attitude and behaviour These changes are also the centre of people's adaptation to abnormal natural disasters which are signs of climate change Therefore, transformative learning is classified as a long-term solution for sustainability in time of climate change in local as well as global By present, the Tien Giang province and MRD more broadly have conducted several models in order to change people’s awareness for sustainable development They are “germ cells” of transformative learning Hence, improving roles of Tlearning in the MRD is beneficial for building up the foundation of expanding Tlearning process toward the changes of awareness, understanding as well as lifestyle for sustainability of study area in the time of climate change CHAPTER SUMMARY Based on the result of research on drought hazard under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario from 2016 to 2035 in Tien Giang province and the distributions of drought disasters in future are revealed In summary, there are several conclusions of this study: First, the drought in there could happen on most of months in year except October and most of the hyper-arid frequency was widespread from December to February and the arid or semi-arid was until May under monthly drought There was no drought from June to November under the same case Second, according to the meteorological data from 1978 to 2015, there was a extremely high correlation among temperature, rainfall and the RDI It is a good choice for calculating drought index from them Third, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario, the distribution of yearly and monthly drought forecasted for future The study area will have to face on several drought hazards in 2020, 2023, and 2032 From this result, we can see that the drought disaster will still be a huge challenge in the future in Tien Giang province It may be good scenario for us to seek in the future work 74 CONLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION Conclusions Tien Giang is a coastal province with a lot of advantage conditions such as temperate climate, flat terrain, and suitable land for agricultural process Besides, the province is facing with several issues including: salt water intrusion, water shortage in dry season and under climate change and rising sea level, they will be more and more serious, threaten to life of residents Based on the results of chapters, there are several conclusion in the thesis below: 1.1 Climate change has influenced clearly in the study area There is a large difference between the coldest months and the hottest months and the linear of temperature is gradually upward trend The precipitation in rainy season is significantly increasing, while in dry season is very low The rising sea and tide level are considerable developing It is main reason cause salinization Disasters are becoming impression on the province 1.2 There is a relationship between drought indices and climatic components Drought is more severe It happens most of months, expect in October and impacts the most dangerous in eastern area Drought predicted that will become a complicated problems under climate change context Therefore, the effect of CC under the form of drought will be a complex issue at present and in the future It will make change in natural components and socioeconomic life and it is known based on approaching nexus Under damaging consequences of CC and SLR, the danger of drought will be rocket in the future and it will threaten on life of the dwellers Hence, the government and residents need to put forward many great solutions for adaptive capacity to prevent the major effect of it because of sustainable development 75 1.3 The drought scenario has published by showed graphs and maps The thesis has focus manifestations of CC and SLR By applying the  Reconnaissance Drought Index for calculating monthly and yearly drought on periods of 1978 – 2015, 2016 – 2035, the results of CC and SLR scenario from MORNE, and the multiple regression model was also used for demonstrating among drought indices, temperature and precipitation The line graph and maps showed the temporal and regional change in classifications of drought established for predicting it in times of CC On the other hand, the thesis also put forward many adaptive solutions for study area via those primary analysing Recommendations The government should have a national strategy to prevent tidal, freshwater reserve, proposed to the countries in the Mekong River Basin on the drought and salinity issues in lower of basin forcefully Moreover, it is crucial to have a cooperation in managing, using, protecting among countries in this area The province should timely disseminate on telecom communication for fluctuating of weather, disaster and its damaging influences on water supply, salt water intrusion Furthermore, the local government and residents should actively take preventive measures against drought, salinity intrusion and CC, advocating the slogan “Living with climate change” Reinforcing coastal dikes, adding embankments around rivers to prevent sea level rise entering domestic area Besides, the dwellers should try to keep fresh water at canals and suitable use them by unified operation and regulation of water in the irrigation system The government should have support plans on affected areas They additionally need to repair and renovation of irrigation systems and the drain which has been damaged over time What is more, it really essential to modernize irrigation systems with investment in information equipment, automated monitoring systems and proactive operation, updating information on water quality on the internet 76 Put forward adaptive capacity under effect of global warming for each period On the large scale, the government and educational organisations should have established community centres as well as expanded transformative learning under the types of informal learning for enhacing awereness of residents to adapt or mitigate with CC and its impression All of them should have applied base on community approaches because it really will be success whether the people it voluntarily, knowingly and 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http://baotainguyenmoitruong.vn/moitruong-va-phat-trien/201503/tac-dong-cua-bien-doi-khi-hau-den-tai-nguyennuoc-va-ngap-lut-o-dong-bang-song-cuu-long-574515/ 81 UNESCO (2012) Exploring Sustainable development: A Multiple - Perspective Approach Paris, France 82 United Nation (1998) Kyoto protocol to the United Nations framework convention on climate change Available: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf 83 UNFCCC (2015) OUTCOMES OF THE U.N CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE IN PARIS 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) URL: http://www.c2es.org/international/negotiations/cop21-paris/summary 86 PUBLICATION OF ARTICLES Note: (E): written by English; (V): written by Vietnamese and English for abstract Thuong, T.V., Phu, P.V., Hung, D.N The temporal variation of drought indices in times of climate change in Tien Giang Province (E) Disaster Advances Vol 10 (6) June 2017, pp 10-16 Hung, D.N Tuan, T.V., Bich, T.T.N., Phu, P.V., Thuong, T.V A multiple perspective approaches to educate for sustainable development of water resources in Tien Giang Province (V) Proceedings of Vietnam National Geography Conference on 9th, December, 2016 in Quynhon City Science and Technics Publishing House ISBN: 978-604- 913-514- Page 1155 – 1162 2016 Hung, D.N., Bich, T.T.N., Thuong, T.V Upscaling of ecological engineering with rice production in Da Loc Commune, Chau Thanh District, Tra Vinh Province (V) Proceedings of Vietnam National Geography Conference on 9th, December, 2016 in Quynhon City Science and Technics Publishing House ISBN: 978-604-913-513-2 Page 161-167 2016 Hung, D.N Tuan, T.V., Bich, T.T.N., Thuong, T.V The change in dry season of drought in Tien Giang Province from 1980 to 2015 (V) Proceedings of Conference on Geography in career of education and training, and development of Vietnamese socio – economic Hanoi University of Education Publishing House ISBN 978-064-54-3347-8, page 24-33 2016 Thuong, T.V., Ngot, P.V., Hung, D.N Manifestations of climate change and sea level rise in Tien Giang Province during the period of 1978 – 2015 (V) HCMC University of Education Journal of Science ISSN: 1859-3100 No 9(87)/2016, page 188-200 2016 ...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HANOI NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATION - - TRAN VAN THUONG ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE Specialisation:... Climate change and sea level rise 1.2.1.1 Definition of climate change The Oxford Dictionary defines climate change as the changes in the earth’s weather, including changes in temperature, wind... socio-economic conditions at study area Chapter Manifestation and scenario of climate change and rising sea level in Tien Giang province The author confers the result of study on change in weather