Climate change impacts: Challenges for food security and sustainable agricultural productivity growth in Vietnam Geetha Mohan Ph.D Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science IR3S, University of Tokyo Contents  What is climate change, food security and sustainability  How climate change impacts on food security and agriculture production  Case study on Vietnam Major Objectives Review of Literature Data and Methodology Results Conclusions What is Climate Change? Increase in Global mean temperature (0C)  Short-term: Greater Climate Variability including extreme events (floods, drought etc.,)  Long-term: Shifts in mean climate conditions (changes in expected rainfall months etc.,) Source: FAO 2009 Impacts of natural disasters on agriculture Number of flash flood over years National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, MONRE 2010 Paddy & cultivation area loss due to natural calamity (000 ha) Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control, 2010 Food Security FAO (2003) refers to the existence of food security “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for a healthy and active life” FAO (2009) has also reported that while globally the impact of climate change on food production may be small, at least until 2050 The distribution of production will have severe consequences on food security Due to result of global warming, most of the developing countries may experience a decline of between 9% and 21% in overall potential agricultural productivity Dimensions of food security Dimensions Impacts Availability Adequacy of food supply loss in food production, indirect environmental feedbacks Access Accessibility to food or affordability Infrastructure damage, asset losses; loss of income and employment opportunities Stability of supply, without seasonal fluctuations or shortages Utilization quality and safety of food FAO (2009) Increased livelihood risks, pressure on food prices; Higher dependency on food imports and food aid Human health risks, nutrition Challenges on food security  Food insecurity, food deficits or shortages are major concerns of all countries  However, it will vary from country to country, and much will depend on the degree of investments on agriculture, food distribution systems, early warning measures, transport and communications An overriding factor concerns appropriate policies on food security For e.g small farmers and medium farmers  nutritional and food insecurity problems  Difficulties to minimize and ensure sustainable consistent farm produce are major challenges for small farmers Sustainability Generally there is no accepted definition of sustainable agriculture Swindale (1988) explained, “sustainability conveys the idea of a balance between human needs and environmental concerns” Rapidly rising population growth and diminishing arable land, particularly in the developing countries, has increased the stress on the natural resource base It is now incontestable that sustainable agriculture is seen as an important goal throughout the world Photo Courtesy: UNO Food Availability Per capita milled rice Per capita foodgrain Northern provinces achieved food sufficiency Kg of milled rice equiv per capita in 2006 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 200 201 - 500 501 - 1500 1501 - 3000 3001 - 6763 Source: Nguyen Trung Kien, 2013 Southern provinces produced surplus food (rice) for export Food Affordability Poverty Rate (%) Domestic Food Price (VND/kg) 2006 Vietnam 2010 140 15.5 10.7 Urban 7.7 5.1 Rural 18 13.2 Red River Delta 10.1 6.5 North East 22.2 17.7 40 North West 39.4 32.7 20 North Central Coast 26.6 19.3 South Central Coast 17.2 14.7 Central Highlands 24 21 South East 4.6 3.7 13.3 11.4 By region Mekong Delta 25.0 120 20.0 100 15.0 80 60 10.0 5.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Rice (1000 VND/kg) Pork (1000 VND/kg) Beef (1000 VND/kg) Buffalo meat (1000 VND/kg) Poultry (1000 VND/kg) CPI (%) Real income growth (%) Source: VHLSS 2002 – 2012 0.0 Methodology  The Malmquist Index measures the TFP changes between two data points (for e.g those of a particular regions in two adjacent time periods)  TFP growths and decomposition components (Efficiency and Technical Change)  Following Färe et al (1994) the Malmquist TFP index between period t and t+1 is given by The Malmquist index could be decomposed into an efficiency change component and a technical change component M0 >1 indicates positive TFP growth from period t+1 to period t, while M0