Chapter 11 Cash Flow Estimation Cash Flow Estimation Capital budgeting process consists of: – Estimating the cash flows associated with projects, and then – Evaluating the estimates using NPV and IRR Forecasting cash flows accurately is by far the more difficult and error prone process The General Approach to Cash Flow Estimation A sales forecast leads to an estimate of cash inflows from customers A cost/expense projection leads to a pattern of outflows to employees and vendors An equipment plan leads to a series of outflows for capital assets The General Approach Think through the events a project will bring about, and write down the financial implications of each Forecasts for new ventures tend to be the most complex Pre-startup, the initial outlay: Enumerate pre-start expenses (after tax) and all assets that must be purchased • Some are tax deductible, some are not Sales Forecast Forecast incremental units over time in spreadsheet form Extend by prices for revenues The General Approach Cost of Sales and Expenses: Base costs and expenses on a relationship with incremental revenues or units sold Assets: Plan new assets when needed Include working capital Depreciation: Plan depreciation for new and old assets A non-cash item but it impacts taxes Taxes and Earnings Summarize tax deductible items in each period to calculate impact on taxes and earnings Treat incremental taxes like any other cash flow item The General Approach to Cash Flow Estimation Expansion Projects – Require the same elements as new ventures – Usually need less new equipment and facilities Replacement Projects – Generally saves on cost without generating new revenue – Estimating process may be less elaborate Project Cash Flows Regardless of the project, the basic process is the same – The Typical Pattern Requires an initial outlay Subsequent cash flows tend to be positive – Project Cash Flows Are Incremental Separable from the existing business Project Cash Flows Sunk Costs – Have already been spent and are ignored Opportunity Costs – The value of a resource in its best alternative use – The cost of a resource is whatever is given up to use it Project Cash Flows Impacts on other parts of company Overhead levels Taxes Cash v accounting results Working capital Ignore financing costs Old equipment Estimating New Venture Cash Flows New venture projects tend to be larger and more elaborate than expansions or replacements – But incremental cash flows can be easier to isolate 10 Concept Connection Example 11-1 New Venture Cash Flows Assume that the $12,000 of initial inventory was acquired prior to start-up Represents the subtotal after adding depreciation less the change in working capital 18 19 Terminal Values Cash flows forecast to continue forever are compressed into finite terminal values using perpetuity formulas – A common but very aggressive assumption with new ventures – A repetitive cash flow starting in year is valued as a perpetuity 20 Accuracy and Estimates NPV and IRR techniques give the impression of great accuracy Capital budgeting results are no more accurate than the projections used as inputs Unintentional biases are a problem in capital budgeting 21 MACRS—A Note on Depreciation U.S government allows accelerated tax depreciation MACRS sorts assets (equipment) into categories – Specifies depreciation for each 22 Estimating Cash Flows for Replacement Projects Fewer elements than new ventures Identifying what is incremental can be tricky Difficult to determine what will happen if you don’t the project 23 Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Harrington purchased a machine five years ago for $80,000 Depreciated straight-line over eight years New machinery depreciated straight line over five years Considering replacing with a new one costing $150,000 Old unit can be sold for $45,000 Old machine - three operators $25,000/year each New machine - two operators $25,000/year each 24 Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects The old machine has the following history of high maintenance cost and significant downtime Manufacturing managers estimate every hour of downtime costs the $500, but have no backup data Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects New machine claims Maintenance will cost $15,000/year and annual Downtime about 30 hours However, no guarantee after warranty The new machine is expected to produce higher quality output resulting in better customer satisfaction and sales, but no one can quantify this result 26 Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Harrington is currently profitable with a 34% tax rate Estimate the incremental cash flows over the next five years associated with buying the new machine Solution: There are two kinds of cash flows in this problem—those that can be estimated fairly objectively and those that require some degree of subjective guesswork First consider the objective items Objective Items - Initial Outlay Selling an Old Asset Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects – Objective Items: Depreciation and Labor Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects The subjective benefits (involve opinion) are hard to quantify and lead to biases when estimated by people who want project approval The financial analyst should ensure reasonability The question is: Should we assume maintenance on the old machine would have remained at $90.0 or increase as the machine gets older? Also, will maintenance on the new machine rise as it ages? Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Downtime: The new machine promises savings of 100 hours But, how reliable are those estimates? And how much does each hour of downtime savings cost? Arguments range from nothing to $1,000 an hour A middle-of-the-road approach of $400 an hour yields an estimated savings of $40,000 per year Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Combining these with the initial outlays yields the project’s estimated cash flow stream 32 [...]... New Venture Cash Flows Sales are forecasted to grow for 4 years before leveling off We’ll estimate for 6 years—for a longer forecast repeat the last year as The building is depreciated over 39 years while the equipment is depreciated over 5 years 17 Concept Connection Example 11-1 New Venture Cash Flows Assume that the $12,000 of initial inventory was acquired prior to start-up Represents the subtotal... General overhead is about 5% of revenue – Incremental overhead is estimated at 2% of revenues Concept Connection Example 11-1 New Venture Cash Flows Revenues collected in 30 days Incremental inventories $12,000 at startup and for the first year Then inventory turnover = 12 X Payables will be 25% of inventories Losses result in tax credits Marginal tax rate is 34% 14 Concept Connection Example 11-1 New... bikes The following information is forecast: 11 Concept Connection Example 11-1 New Venture Cash Flows    Last year purchased a gearshift design for $50,000 Facilities are at capacity, so a new shop is required Company owns land nearby New building will cost $60,000 Land purchased 10 years ago for $30,700 Market value is now $150,000 12 Concept Connection Example 11-1 New Venture Cash Flows Three percent... continue forever are compressed into finite terminal values using perpetuity formulas – A common but very aggressive assumption with new ventures – A repetitive cash flow starting in year 7 is valued as a perpetuity 20 Accuracy and Estimates NPV and IRR techniques give the impression of great accuracy Capital budgeting results are no more accurate than the projections used as inputs Unintentional biases... Replacement Projects The subjective benefits (involve opinion) are hard to quantify and lead to biases when estimated by people who want project approval The financial analyst should ensure reasonability The question is: Should we assume maintenance on the old machine would have remained at $90.0 or increase as the machine gets older? Also, will maintenance on the new machine rise as it ages? Concept... determine what will happen if you don’t do the project 23 Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Harrington purchased a machine five years ago for $80,000 Depreciated straight-line over eight years New machinery depreciated straight line over five years Considering replacing with a new one costing $150,000 Old unit can be sold for $45,000 Old machine - three operators $25,000/year each New... guarantee after warranty The new machine is expected to produce higher quality output resulting in better customer satisfaction and sales, but no one can quantify this result 26 Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Harrington is currently profitable with a 34% tax rate Estimate the incremental cash flows over the next five years associated with buying the new machine Solution: There are... allows accelerated tax depreciation MACRS sorts assets (equipment) into categories – Specifies depreciation for each 22 Estimating Cash Flows for Replacement Projects Fewer elements than new ventures Identifying what is incremental can be tricky Difficult to determine what will happen if you don’t do the project 23 Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Harrington purchased a machine five... savings cost? Arguments range from nothing to $1,000 an hour A middle-of-the-road approach of $400 an hour yields an estimated savings of $40,000 per year Concept Connection Example 11-3 Replacement Projects Combining these with the initial outlays yields the project’s estimated cash flow stream 32 ... be 25% of inventories Losses result in tax credits Marginal tax rate is 34% 14 Concept Connection Example 11-1 New Venture Cash Flows Initial Outlay costs of hiring, training and advertising are tax deductible: 15 Concept Connection Example 11-1 New Venture Cash Flows Add operating items and assets for the total pre-start-up outlay: Net after tax expenses $95.7 Assets subtotal $272.0 Actual pre-start-up