Đánh giá khả năng dự báo hạn mùa của một số mô hình khí hậu khu vực cho việt nam

15 279 0
  • Loading ...
1/15 trang

Thông tin tài liệu

Ngày đăng: 01/09/2016, 11:00

ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN - T T ĐÁNH GIÁ KHẢ NĂNG DỰ BÁO HẠN MÙA CỦA MỘT SỐ MÔ HÌNH KHÍ HẬU KHU VỰC CHO VIỆT NAM LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC Hà Nội – 2015 ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN - T T ĐÁNH GIÁ KHẢ NĂNG DỰ BÁO HẠN MÙA CỦA MỘT SỐ MÔ HÌNH KHÍ HẬU KHU VỰC CHO VIỆT NAM Chuyên ngành: K t n k ậu Mã số: 61.44.87 LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC NGƯỜI HƯỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC: TS V T n H n Hà Nội - 2015 LỜI C M N T i xin ày t l n T n H n n i n n u t T i ộm nK n v n n n i lời m n n n i ri n un n t ã i p i tron t ời i n qu Cuối n n luận v n n t àn t y vi n t n n t i ời t n ã lu n n ộ tron K o K n mon muốn n t n t o i u ki n t uận l i Trun t m T n tin D li u k tới i i p i n luận v n n i n ời t y ã tận t m n i t t n n xin t i t n s u sắ tới GS TS P n V n T n TS V t m n n t yv n ã i mon muốn n n ộn vi n i p t n T t i n t y v n H i oàn t àn luận n n n i p tron tl n i p i lời m n k ắ p vi n n t àn k k n t k t qu tốt n t L T T n M C C NG i DANH M C DANH M C H NH NH ii DANH M C C C K HI U VI T TẮT iv MỞ Đ U CHƯ NG TỔNG QUAN 1 K i qu t un v o t ời ti t ok ậu 1.1.1 Khát quát chung 1.1.2 C p 1.1.3 C n p p m n Tổn qu n n 1.2.1 Tr n t ok ok i n u n ậu ậu i s n p ẩm o m 13 iới 13 1.2.2 Tron n 17 13Đ n i s n p ẩm 1.3.1 M o 18 ý n 1.3.2 C ĩ n uy n lý un vi n o ài to n i s n p ẩm n i tl o 18 n s n p ẩm o 20 CHƯ NG PHƯ NG PH P MÔ H NH VÀ SỐ LI U 21 21P n p p 22M n n i ok o m 21 ậu k u v o Vi t N m 30 2.2.1 Mô hình RegCM 4.2 30 2.2.2 Mô hình clWRF (Climate Weather Research and Forecasting) 35 Số li u x lý số li u 38 CHƯ NG K T QU 41 N i t ộ trun 3.1.1 T n 41 n qu n 41 3.1.2 S i số trun 3.1.3 C số n 46 n 3.1.4 P n ố t n su t 32N i t ộ 3.2.1 T op 51 o n t Tx 52 n qu n 52 3.2.2 S i số trun 3.2.3 C i t ốn k 49 số n 55 n 3.2.4 P n ố t n su t i t ốn k 57 op 59 3 N i t ộ t p n t n ày 59 3.3.1 T n qu n 59 3.3.2 S i số trun 3.3.3 C số n 64 n 3.3.4 P n ố t n su t 34L n m i t ốn k 66 op 67 68 K T LUẬN 73 TÀI LI U THAM KH O 75 PH L C 81 DANH M C BẢNG n 11 Đ n n 21 i k t qu o Finley (1884) 14 n t ốn k n ẫu n i n 24 n 22 D n s tr m k t n 39 n C số t ốn k ối với n i t ộ trun n t n m n R CM WRF 50 n 32 n p n ố t n su t n 33 n số n i t ốn k m n R CM WRF o n i t ộ o n t t n 58 n 34 n s i số t ốn k m n R CM WRF o n i t ộ t p n t t n 67 n P n ố t n su t R CM với n op o T2m 51 op o l n m n ày t n v n m n o t n 69 n P n ố x su t o t o p l n m n ày m n WRF với n o t n 70 n P n ố x su t 11 v n với n o t o p l n m n ày m n R CM t n o t n 70 n P n ố x su t v n N1 với n o t o p l n m n ày m n R CM t n o t n 71 n 39 n m số n i t ốn k m n R CM WRF o tổn l n t n 72 i DANH M C HÌNH ẢNH Hn 21 M p n to n H n 2 Qui tr n H n Mi n t n Hn 24 P nv n k t i m 21 o 35 om n ok ậu k u v ậu Vi t N m N u n: k 37 ậu Vi t N m 40 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n R CM t n 12 t tr n xuốn ới với n o3 t n o k u v Vi t N m 42 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n R CM t n v n N1 với n o t n t n v n N3 với n o t n 43 H n 3 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n 12 o k u v Vi t N m n o3 t n 44 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n 12 o k u v Vi t N m n o6 t n 45 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF ot n 6v n t n v n N3 với n o3 t n 45 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n v n N2 t n v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 46 H n Đ t s i số trun n t n T2m t m n R CM WRF với n o t n 47 H n S i số trun n t n T2m t m n R CM WRF với n o6 t n 48 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n R CM ot n o v n N1 N2 t n n với n o t n 53 Hn 31 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n N2 t n v n N1 t n v n N3 với n o t n 53 H n 11 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n t n n với n o t n 54 H n 12 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n t n v n t n v n N1 t n v n N3 với n o t n 54 ii H n 13 S i số trun WRF với n n n i t ộ o n t trun n t n m n R CM o t n 55 H n 14 S i số trun n n i t ộ o n t trun n t n m n R CM WRF 56 H n 15 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n R CM o t n o v n N2 t n v n với n o t n 60 H n 16 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n R CM o t n 12 o v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 61 H n 17 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n WRF o t n o v n N2 t n 11 v n t n 11 v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 62 H n 18 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n WRF ot n ov n t n v n N2 t n v n N1 t n 12 v n N3 với n o6t n 63 H n 19 S i số trun WRF với n n t n n i t ộ t p n t n ày m n R CM o t n 64 Hn 32 n t n n i t ộ t p n t n ày m n R CM o t n 65 S i số trun WRF với n iii DANH M C CÁC KÍ HIỆU VI T TẮT AFWA AGCM AOGCM B1 B2 B3 B4 BATS BoM CFS CGCM CHLB CN ECMWF ETA Fcs GCM HRM JMA KHTN KTTV MM5 N1 N2 N3 NAM/SAM NCAR NCEP Obs PDO PNA RCM RegCM REMO SLP SST C k t n k n qu n M n oàn l u un k quy n M n k ậu k t p oàn l u un k quy n i n V n k ậu T y ắ V n k ậu Đ n ắ V n k ậu Đ n n ắ ộ V n k ậu ắ Trun ộ S t n t sin quy n-k quy n C qu n K t n Austr li H t ốn ok ậu NCEP T NCEP Clim t For System) M n k ậu toàn u p Coupl Glo l Clim t Mo l Cộn li n n C n n Trun t m ok t n nv C u u M n o t ời ti t p i t y tĩn D o For st M n k ậu toàn u Glo l lim te models) M n k uv ộ p n i i o Hi -resolution Regional Model) Tổ k t n N ật n K o t n i n K t n t yv n M n k t n ộn l qui m v (Mesoscale Meteorological Model) V n k ậu N m Trun ộ V n k ậu T y N uy n V n k ậu N m ộ N i u ộn ắ N m n u T Nort rn n Sout rn hemisphere Annular Modes) Trun t m Quố i n i n u k quy n Trung tâm o m tr ờn Quố i N tion l C nt r or Environmental Prediction) Qu n trắ O s rv (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Pacific/North American M n k uv M n k ậu k u v R ion l Clim t Mo l M n k uv T -Regional-Model) K p m t i n Sea Level Pressure) N i t ộ m t n i n (Sea Surface Temperature) iv st TSKH WMO WRF XTNĐ Ti n sĩ k o Tổ k t n t Mô n n i n u Xo y t uận n i t ới iới Worl M t orolo i l Or niz tion o t ời ti t W t r R s r For st v TÀI IỆU THAM KHẢO T l ệu t V ệt i Hoàn H i , hi há i ầ h hiề h h ự h i Luận n ti n sĩ Đ i Quố i Hà Nội N uy n T H n 13 hi ự h ế hi ự i ằ h h Luận v n t sĩ Đ i k o t n i n Đ i Quố i Hà Nội Tr n Tu n Lon 12 hi ự h h kh hậ ự ằ h h h kh ự i Luận v n t sĩ Đ i K o t n i n Đ i quố i Hà Nội P nV nT n h k kh Đ i k o t n i n Đ i quố i Hà Nội P nV nT n h há h k kh NX Đ i quố i Hà Nội P n V n T n -2010), hi ủ iế i kh hậ ầ ế ế hi kh hậ ự i kh ă ự i i há hiế h Đ tài p N n mã số KC08.29/06-10 P n V n T n H T Min Hà L n M n T ắn Tr n Qu n Đ ề kh ă h h ự h kh hậ ề ặ i T p K o ĐHQGHN K o T n i n C n n số 25 tr Alves O Zhong A Wang G (2006), Operational coupled model seasonal forecast system, Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology (A2) Anders Persson (2011), User guide to ECMWF forecast products, ECMWF 10 Annamalai H Murtugudde R Potemra J., McCreary J.P (2005), Effect of Preconditioning on the Extreme Climate Events in the Tropical Indian Ocean, Journal of Climate 18 (2005) 3450 11 Anthes R.A (1977), A cumulus parameterization scheme using a one dimensionalcloud model, Mon Wea Rev, Vol 105, pp 270-286 12 Bergant K Halenka T Belda M (2006), Systematic errors in the simulation of European climate (1961-2000) with RegCM3 driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis ” International Journal of Climatology Vol 27 (4), pp 455-472 13 Cantelaube P J.M Terres (2005), Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe, Tellus Series a-Dyn Meteorol Ocea- nogr 57 (3) 14 Challinor A.J Wheeler T.R Slingo J.M., Doblas-Reyes F.J (2005), Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles, TELLUS A, 57, tr 498-512 15 Christensen J H R G Jones B Machenhauer, C Schär, P M Ruti, M Castro, and G.Visconti (1997), Validation of presentday regional climate simulations over Europe: LAM simulations with observed boundary conditions, Climate Dyn., 13, 489–506 16 Christensen J.H Busuioc A Hewitson B., Chen A., Gao X., Held I., Jones R., Kolli R.K., Kwon W.-T., Laprise R., Magaña Rueda V., Mearns L., Menéndez C.G.,Räisänen J., Rinke A., Sarr A., Whetton P (2007), Regional Climate Projections, In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of 75 Working Group I to 381the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K.B Averyt, M Tignor and H.L Miller (editions.)] In press, Cambridge University Press 17 Deng Weitao Wu Lingling Sun Zhaobo, Deng Xueliang (2009), Precdictionof summer precipitation anomalies over China by CAM_RegCM nest model, PhD thesis, Nanjing University of Information Engineering 18 Dickinson R E F Giorgi R M Errico, G T Bates (1989), A regional climate model for the western united states Clim C n số 15 tr 383 19 Duffy P B J Coquard R W Arritt, W Gutowski, J Han, J Iorio, J Kim, L.-R Leung, J Roads, E Zeledon (2006), Simulations of Present and Future Climates in the Western United States with Four Nested Regional Climate Models, J Clim., 19, 873-895 20 Duffy P.B J Coquard R.W Arritt, W Gutowski, J Han, J Iorio, J Kim, L.R Leung, J Roads, E Zeledon (2006), Simulations of Present and Future Climates in the Western United States with Four Nested Regional Climate Models, Journal of Clim t số 19 21 Fita L and Fernandez J and Garcia-Diez M (2009), CLWRF: WRF modifications for regional climate simulation under future scenarios Group de Meoteorologia, Dpt Appl Math And Comp Scie., Universidad de Cantabria, Spain 22 Francisco R.V Giorgi F Argete J., Pal J., Bi X., Gutowski W.J (2006), Regional model simulation of summer rainfall over the Philippines: Effect of choice of driving fields and ocean flux schemes, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Vol 86 (1-4), pp 215-227 23 Frumkin A Misra V (2012), Predictability of dry season reforecasts over the tropical and the sub-tropical South American region, International Journal of ClimatologyDOI 10.1002/joc.3508 (A3) 24 Giorgi F and G T Bates (1989), The climatological skill of a regional model overcomplex terrain, Mon Wea Rev., Vol 117, pp 2325-2347 25 Giorgi F Nishizawa K Huang Y., Fu C (1999), A Seasonal Cycle Simultion over eastern Asia and its Sensitivity to Radiative Transfer and Surface Processes, Journal of Geophysical Research Vol 104 (D6), pp 6403-6423 26 Giorgi F Marinucci M.R (1996), An Investigation of the Sensitivity of Simulated Precipitation to Model Resolution and Its Implications for Climate Studies, Monthly Weather Review Vol 124, pp 148-166 27 Giorgi F G.T Bates M.R Marinucci, and G DeCanio (1993b), Development of asecond generation regional climate model (REGCM2) Part II: Convective processesand assimilation of lateral boundary conditions, Monthly Weather Review, Vol 121, pp.2814-2832 28 Giorgi F and C Shields (1999), Tests of precipitation parameterizations available in the latest version of the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the continental United States, Journal of Geophysical Resear số pp 63536375 29 Giorgi F Gary Bates T (1989), The climatological skill of a regional model over complex terrain Mon Wea Rev., 117, tr 2325 76 30 Giorgi F Gary Bates T (1990), Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model J Clim số tr 941 31 Giorgi Filippo and Gary T Bates Maria Rosaria Marinucci (1993a), Development of aSecond-Generation Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) Part I: Boundary-Layer andRadiative Transfer Processes, Mon Wea Rev., Vol 121, pp 2791-2813 32 Giorgi Filippo Keiiclii Xishi/awa Yan Huang, Congbin Fu (1998b), A seasonal Cycle Simulation over East Asia and its sensitivity to Radiative Transfer, MIRAMARE – TRIESTE IC/98/189 33 Grell J Dudhia G A., and D R Stauffer (1994), Description of the fifth generationPenn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), Tech Rep TN-398+STR, NCAR,Boulder, Colorado, pp 121 34 Hack J J B P Briegleb B A Boville, J T Kiehl, P J Rasch, and D L Williamson (1993), Description of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM2), Technical ReportNCAR/TN-382+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 120 pp 35 Holtslag A.A.M Pan H.-L Bruijn E.I.F (1990), A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting, Mon Wea Rev Vol 118,pp 1561–1575 36 Hsie E Y and D Keyser R A Anthes (1984), Numerical simulation of frontogenisisin a moist atmosphere, J Atmos Sci., Vol.41, pp 2581–2594 37 http://www.kma.go.kr/eng/lrwp/long01.jsp 38 http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/long_range_forecasting.php 39 Ian T Jolliffe David B Stephenson (2002), Forecast Verification, A Pr tition r’s Gui in Atmospheric Science 40 Im E.-S Ahn J.-B Kwon W.-T., Giorgi F (2006), Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system Part 1: Recent climate simulation (1971–2000), Climate Dynamics Vol 28 (7-8), pp 759-780 41 IPCC Climate Change (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, pp 996 42 Jones P.D Parker D.E New M., Martin S., Rigor I.G (1999), Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years, Reviews of Geophysic Vol 37, pp 173-199 43 Kanamitsu M H Kanamaru (2007), Fifty-seven year reanalysis downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10) Part IL System detail and validation with observations, Journal of Climate, Vol 20 44 Kato H Nishizawa K Hirakuchi H., Giorgi F (1999), Performance of NCAR RegCM in the Simulation of June and January Climates over Eastern Asia and the highresolution effects of the model, Journal of Geophysical Research Vol 104 (D6), pp 6455-6476 45 Kato H Hirakuchi H Nishizawa K., Kadokura S., Oshima N., Giorgi F (2001), Performance of RegCM2.5/NCAR-CSM Nested System for the Simulation of ClimateChange in East Asia Caused by Global Warming, Journal of the MeteorologicalSociety of Japan Vol 79, No 1, pp 99-121 77 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 Kiehl Jeffrey T James J Hack Christine A Shields, William D Collins (2006), TheClimate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version (CCSM3), J.Climate, Vol.19, pp 2584–2596 Kloizbach Phillip J Willam M (2003), GrayForecasting September Atlantic Basin TropicalCyclone Activity W t r n For stin số 18 tr 119 Krishnamurti T.N Arun Chakraborty Lydia Stefanova, T.S.V Vijaya Kumar, Steve Cocke, David Bachiochi and Brian Mackey (2001), Seasonal Forecasts of precipitation anomalies for North American and Asian Monsoons FSU R port số 01-07 Li C Zhu J He J (2004), A review of decadal/interdecadal climate variation studies in China, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol 21, p 425 Liang X Z K E Kunkel L Li, M F Ting and J X L Wang (2004), Regional climate model simulation of US precipitation during 1982-2002 Part I: Annual cycle, J.Clim., Vol 17, pp 3510-3529 Y K Lim Shin D W (2007), Dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal simualations of maximum surface air temperature over the southeastern United States Journ l o G op ysi l số Vol 112 D241 M Noguer Murphy J Jones R.G (1998), Sources of systematic errors in the climatology of a nested regional climate model over Europe, Clim Dyn Vol 14, pp 691-712 Machenhauer B Botzet M Windelband M., Christensen J.H., Deque M., Jones R.,Ruti P.M., Visconti G (1998), Validation and analysis of regional present-day climateand climate change simulations over Europe, MPI Report (275), MPI, Hamburg,Germany McGregor J.L Nguyen K.C Katzfey J.J (1998), Fine resolution simulations of climate change for southeast Asia, Final report for a Research Project commissioned by Southeast Asian Regional Committee for START (SARCS), Aspendale, Vic., CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Vol VI (15) Nellie Elguindi Filippo Giorgi Xunqiang Bi, Badrinath Nagarajan, Jeremy Pal, and Fabien Solmon (2004), RegCM Version 3.0 User's Guide, Physics of Weather and Climate Group, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, MIRAMARE TRIESTE, February 2004 New attachment II-9 (2002), Standardised Verification System (SVS) for LongRange Forecasts(LRF) Version 3.0, the Manual on the GDPS (WMO-No 485 số I Palmer T N Andersen U Alessandri A., Cantelaube P., Davey M., D´el´ecluse P D´ qu´ M D´ı z E Do l s-Reyes, F J., Feddersen, H., Graham, R., Gualdi, S., Gu´er´emy, J.-F., Hagedorn, R., Hoshen, M., Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Lazar, A., Maisonnave, E., Marletto, V., Morse, A P., Orfila, B., Rogel, P., Terres, J.-M and Thomson, M C (2004), Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER), Bull Am Meteorol Soc., Vol 85, pp 853–872 Pan Z R.W Arritt J.H Christensen, W.J Gutowski, E.S Takle, and F Otieno (2000), Contrasting biases in regional climate simulations to climate changes, InternationalConference & Young Scientist Workshop on Asian Monsoon Environmental Systemand Global Change, Nanjing, China 78 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 Phillips Thomas J (1992), An Application of a Simple Coupled OceanAtmosphereModel to the Study of Seasonal Climate Prediction J Clim số pp 1078–1096 Qian Y Giorgi F (1999), Interactive Coupling of Regional Climate and Sulfate Aerosol Models over Eastern Asia, Journal Of Geophysical Research Vol 104 (D6), pp 6477-6499 Rowell David P (1998), Assessing Potential Seasonal Predictability with an Ensemble of Multidecadal GCM Simulations, J Clim., 11, pp109-120 Saha S J Wang Nadiaga C Thiaw, W Wang, Q Zhang, H M Van Den Dool, H.-L Pan, S Moorthy, D Behringer, D Stokes, M Pena, S Lord, G White , W Ebisuzaki, P Peng, and P Xie (2005), The NCEP Climate Forecast System Saha S C Thiaw S Nadiga, J Wang, W Wang, Q Zhang, H M Van den Dool, H.L Pan, S Moorthi, D Benringer, D Stokes, M Pena, S Lord, G White, W Ebisuzaki, P Peng, P.Xie (2006), The NCEP Climate Forecast System, Journal o Clim t số tr 3483 Singh G.P Kim J Oh J., Kim O (2006), Sensitivity of Summer Monsoon Precipitation over East Asia to Convective Parameterization Schemes in RegCM3, SOLA, Vol 2, pp 029-032 Sohn S J and Ahn Tam C Y., J B (2012), Development of a multimodel-base seasonal prediction system for extreme droughts and floods: a case study for South Korea, International Journal of Climatology DOI.10.1002 joc.3464 (B3 ) Stanski H.R L.J and Burrows Wilson, W.R (1989), Survey of Common Verification Methods in Meteorology Worl W t r W t T ni l R port số Sylla M B J S Pal A T Gaye, G S Jenkins, X Q Bi (2009), High-resolution simulations of West African climate using regional climate model (RegCM3) with different lateral boundary conditions, Theor Appl Climatol 98, pp 293–314 Takle E S and Coauthors (1999), Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS): Description and initial results J G op ys R s số pp19443–19461 Thomson M.C S.J Mason F.J Doblas-Reyes, R Hagedorn, S.J Connor, T Phindela, A.P Morse and T.N Palmer (2006), Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles N tur số 439 tr 576579 Xing Yuan Eric F Wood Xin-Zhong Liang (2012), WRF Ensemble downscaling seasonal forecasts of China winter precipitation during 1982–2008 Climate Dynamics, Volume 39 Yoon J H L R and Correia Leung, J (2012), Comparison of dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal climate forecasts for the cold season over the United States Journ l o op ysi l r s r số Vol 117 D211 Zhu Congwen Woo-Sung Lee Chung-Kyu Park, and Won-Tae Yun (2008), Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol 25, No 5, pp 867-884 Stockdale T (2000), An overview of techniques for seasonal forecasting, Stochastic Environ Res Risk Assess, tr 305-318 79 [...]... ensembles N tur số 439 tr 576579 Xing Yuan và Eric F Wood Xin-Zhong Liang (2012), WRF Ensemble downscaling seasonal forecasts of China winter precipitation during 1982–2008 Climate Dynamics, Volume 39 Yoon J H và L R and Correia Leung, J (2012), Comparison of dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal climate forecasts for the cold season over the United States Journ l o op ysi l r s r số Vol 117... climate simulation (1971–2000), Climate Dynamics Vol 28 (7-8), pp 759-780 41 IPCC Climate Change (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, pp 996 42 Jones P.D và Parker D.E New M., Martin S., Rigor I.G (1999), Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years, Reviews of Geophysic Vol 37, pp 173-199 43 Kanamitsu M và H Kanamaru (2007), Fifty-seven year reanalysis... GrayForecasting September Atlantic Basin TropicalCyclone Activity W t r n For stin số 18 tr 119 Krishnamurti T.N và Arun Chakraborty Lydia Stefanova, T.S.V Vijaya Kumar, Steve Cocke, David Bachiochi and Brian Mackey (2001), Seasonal Forecasts of precipitation anomalies for North American and Asian Monsoons FSU R port số 01-07 Li C và Zhu J He J (2004), A review of decadal/interdecadal climate variation... tài p N à n ớ mã số KC08.29/06-10 7 P n V n T n H T Min Hà L n M n T ắn và Tr n Qu n Đ 2 9 ề kh ă h h ự á h á ờ kh hậ ề ặ i T p K o ĐHQGHN K o T n i n và C n n số 25 tr 1 8 Alves O và Zhong A Wang G (2006), Operational coupled model seasonal forecast system, Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology (A2) 9 Anders và Persson (2011), User guide to ECMWF forecast products, ECMWF 10 Annamalai H và Murtugudde... continental United States, Journal of Geophysical Resear số 1 4 pp 63536375 29 Giorgi F và Gary Bates T (1989), The climatological skill of a regional model over complex terrain Mon Wea Rev., 117, tr 2325 76 30 Giorgi F và Gary Bates T (1990), Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model J Clim số 3 tr 941 31 Giorgi Filippo và and Gary T Bates Maria... simulation of US precipitation during 1982-2002 Part I: Annual cycle, J.Clim., Vol 17, pp 3510-3529 Y K Lim và Shin D W (2007), Dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal simualations of maximum surface air temperature over the southeastern United States Journ l o G op ysi l số Vol 112 D241 2 1 M Noguer và Murphy J Jones R.G (1998), Sources of systematic errors in the climatology of a nested regional... ni l R port số 8 Sylla M B và J S Pal A T Gaye, G S Jenkins, X Q Bi (2009), High-resolution simulations of West African climate using regional climate model (RegCM3) with different lateral boundary conditions, Theor Appl Climatol 98, pp 293–314 Takle E S và and Coauthors (1999), Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS): Description and initial results J G op ys R s số 1 4 pp19443–19461... of Clim t số 19 21 Fita L và and Fernandez J and Garcia-Diez M (2009), CLWRF: WRF modifications for regional climate simulation under future scenarios Group de Meoteorologia, Dpt Appl Math And Comp Scie., Universidad de Cantabria, Spain 22 Francisco R.V và Giorgi F Argete J., Pal J., Bi X., Gutowski W.J (2006), Regional model simulation of summer rainfall over the Philippines: Effect of choice of driving... for Theoretical Physics, MIRAMARE TRIESTE, February 2004 New attachment II-9 (2002), Standardised Verification System (SVS) for LongRange Forecasts(LRF) Version 3.0, the Manual on the GDPS (WMO-No 485 số I Palmer T N và Andersen U Alessandri A., Cantelaube P., Davey M., D´el´ecluse P D´ qu´ M D´ı z E Do l s-Reyes, F J., Feddersen, H., Graham, R., Gualdi, S., Gu´er´emy, J.-F., Hagedorn, R., Hoshen, M.,... Change, Nanjing, China 78 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 Phillips Thomas J (1992), An Application of a Simple Coupled OceanAtmosphereModel to the Study of Seasonal Climate Prediction J Clim số 5 pp 1078–1096 Qian Y và Giorgi F (1999), Interactive Coupling of Regional Climate and Sulfate Aerosol Models over Eastern Asia, Journal Of Geophysical Research Vol 104 (D6), pp 6477-6499 Rowell David
- Xem thêm -

Xem thêm: Đánh giá khả năng dự báo hạn mùa của một số mô hình khí hậu khu vực cho việt nam , Đánh giá khả năng dự báo hạn mùa của một số mô hình khí hậu khu vực cho việt nam , Đánh giá khả năng dự báo hạn mùa của một số mô hình khí hậu khu vực cho việt nam

Từ khóa liên quan

Gợi ý tài liệu liên quan cho bạn