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Can Vietnam pursue a path of continued economic growth without a proportional expansion of carbon emissions, reflecting an unabated consumption of natural resources? Will the goals set in Vietnam’s Green Growth Strategy to reduce carbon emissions in the next 15 years be easy to achieve? Won’t reducing carbon emissions in Vietnam hamper economic development? Will reducing carbon emissions require more expensive investments? How can Vietnam schedule its efforts to reduce carbon emissions in the large emitting sectors of electricity production, industry, residential, or transport? Which measures bring the most costeffective benefits? Won’t investing in more capitalintensive electricity production push the price of electricity further upward? Are there really significant measures that can be taken to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector? Will reducing carbon emissions help improve energy security? This report provides elements to help respond to all these questions. Bringing together a large set of data and building upon two years of consultations in Vietnam with Government counterparts, research organizations, stateowned enterprises, the private sector, and Vietnam’s international development partners, the report formulates two scenarios to explore and analyze Vietnam’s options up to the year 2030: a businessasusual and a lowcarbon development scenario. On the basis of a thorough data modeling effort for the key carbonemitting sectors of Vietnam, the report also provides some policy guidance for the Government’s consideration. This report is also unique as it brings together and presents data on multiple sectors of Vietnam’s economy, making this information available for future reference
DIREC TIONS IN DE VELOPMENT Environment and Sustainable Development Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam Pierre Audinet, Bipul Singh, Duane T Kexel, Suphachol Suphachalasai, Pedzi Makumbe, and Kristy Mayer Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam DIREC TIONS IN DE VELOPMENT Environment and Sustainable Development Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam Pierre Audinet, Bipul Singh, Duane T Kexel, Suphachol Suphachalasai, Pedzi Makumbe, and Kristy Mayer © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 18 17 16 15 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Audinet, Pierre, Bipul Singh, Duane T Kexel, Suphachol Suphachalasai, Pedzi Makumbe, and Kristy Mayer 2016 Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam Directions in Development Washington, DC: World Bank doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party– owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights @worldbank.org ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-0719-0 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0720-6 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 Cover photo: © Nguyenhieu2206 / ThinkStock by Getty Images Used with the permission of ThinkStock Further permission required for reuse Cover design: Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 Contents Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii Executive Summary xvii Abbreviations xxiii Chapter The Case for Low-Carbon Development Overview 1 Vietnam’s Economic and Emissions Performance Business as Usual versus Low-Carbon Development Notes 9 Bibliography 9 Chapter Low-Carbon Development Scenario 11 Overview 11 Introduction 12 Methodology: The BAU and LCD Scenarios 13 The Business-as-Usual Scenario 13 The Low-Carbon Development Scenario 14 Toward Low-Carbon Development 16 Achieving Green Growth Targets 19 The Economics of Low-Carbon Development 21 Key Recommendations 25 Notes 25 Bibliography 27 Chapter Energy Efficiency in Industrial and Household Sectors 29 Overview 29 Introduction 29 Energy Efficiency and Financial Competitiveness 33 Energy Efficiency at the Household Level 37 Energy Efficiency: An Implementation Gap Assessment 38 Key Recommendations 40 Notes 42 Bibliography 42 Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 v vi Contents Chapter Decarbonizing the Power Sector 45 Overview 45 Displacing CO2-Emitting Coal-Fueled Power Plants to Achieve Low-Carbon Development 46 Low-Carbon Development and Energy Security 58 Key Recommendations 62 Notes 64 Bibliography 65 Chapter Sustainable Transportation and Urban Planning 67 Overview 67 Low-Carbon Development in the Transport Sector 67 Integrated Land-Use Planning 71 Note 72 Bibliography 72 Chapter Macroeconomic and Electricity Pricing Implications 73 Overview 73 Introduction 73 Macroeconomic Implications 74 Electricity Pricing Implications 77 Mitigating Adverse Impacts 78 Notes 79 Bibliography 80 Chapter Policy and Institutional Measures 81 Introduction 81 Area 1: Energy Price Reform 81 Area 2: Increasing the Energy Efficiency of Households and Industry 82 Area 3: Promotion of Gas in the Power Sector 83 Area 4: Use of Supercritical Coal Combustion Technology 83 Area 5: Renewable Energy 84 Area 6: Sustainable Transport 85 Area 7: Cross-Cutting Reforms to Promote LCD 86 Note 87 Bibliography 87 Appendix A EFFECT Model 89 Appendix B Marginal Abatement Costs 91 Appendix C Electricity Revenue Requirements Model 105 Appendix D Computable General Equilibrium Model 109 Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 vii Contents Appendix E Key Assumptions Appendix F Data Tables Appendix G Electricity Generation Capital and Fuel Expenditures by Scenario 113 119 127 Figures ES.1 CO2 Emissions Reductions Proposed, Relative to Business as Usual xviii 1.1 Vietnam’s Annual GDP Growth, 2000–12 1.2 Changes in Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Select Nations and Regions, 2000–10 1.3 Vietnam’s Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP Compared with Select Nations and Regions, 2000–10 1.4 Carbon Dioxide Emissions under the Business-as-Usual Scenario 1.5 Share of Increase in CO2 Emissions under BAU Scenario, 2010–30 2.1 CO2 Emissions: Business as Usual vs Low-Carbon Strategy, 2010–30 17 2.2 Share of Cumulative Emissions Reductions: LCD Scenario, 2010–30 18 2.3 Emissions Reductions under LCD Scenario, 2010–30, Relative to BAU 20 2.4 Emissions Intensity and Emissions per Capita, 2010–30, BAU vs LCD Scenarios 21 2.5 Vietnam’s Marginal Abatement Cost Curve, 2010–30 23 3.1 Reduced Electricity Generation Capacity Additions: EE$10 vs Business as Usual 31 Electric Demand Reductions at the Consumer Level 33 3.2 3.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Industrial Sector Energy Saving (Electricity and Fossil Fuels) 34 3.4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Industrial Sector Electric and Energy Savings Options 35 3.5 Iron and Steel Producers: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves 36 3.6 Small Steel Producers: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves 36 3.7 Cement Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves 37 3.8 Household Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves 37 3.9 Framework of a Typically Successful Energy Efficiency Program 39 4.1 Electricity Generation Capacity Added Net of Energy Efficiency Gains 46 4.2 Peaking Share of Total Installed Capacity, by Scenario, 2010–30, MW 50 Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 viii Contents 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 5.1 5.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 C.1 D.1 D.2 E.1 E.2 E.3 Marginal Abatement Costs for Subcritical Coal Displacement by Online Year 52 Marginal Abatement Costs for Supercritical Coal Displacement by Online Year 53 Marginal Abatement Costs for Supercritical Coal Displacement, with Externalities by Online Year 54 Coal Capacity Displaced in LCD and EE$10 Scenarios, by Type, 2021–30 54 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for the Power Sector 58 Cumulative Emissions Reductions from Power Supply 59 Low-Carbon Options Fuel Import Dependence Changes from Low-Carbon Development 60 Total Power Plants Investments, by Scenario, 2015–30 60 Transport: The BAU vs LCD Scenarios, 2010–30 69 Transport Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves 69 Vietnam’s Economic Growth under the BAU and LCD 74 Scenarios, 2012–30 Inflation under the BAU and LCD Scenarios, 2011–30 76 Difference in the Rate of Increase in Household Consumption over 2014–30 between the LCD and BAU Scenarios, 76 by Income Quintile Unit Electricity Costs, 2014–30 77 Overview of the Revenue Requirements Model 106 Energy Substitution in Production Functions 110 Production Technology and Commodity Flows in Vietnam: 111 Low-Carbon CGE Model Annual Growth of GDP, % per Year, and Total GDP, 2010 114 VND Trillion per Year Total Population, Million Persons, and Urbanization Rate, 115 Percent per Year Number of Households and Household Size 116 Tables ES.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 4.1 Summary of Policy Recommendations xxi Comparisons across Vietnam’s Recent Low-Carbon Studies 16 Installed Capacity Mix in BAU, LCD, and PDPVII Base, 2020 and 2030 19 Total Investment in the BAU and LCD Scenarios, 2010–30 24 Grid Electricity Reductions Due to Increased Energy Efficiency 32 Summary of Select Industrial Marginal Abatement Costs that Affect Electricity Demand 35 Electricity Generation Capacity Added Net of Energy Efficiency Gains, MW and % 47 Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 Key Assumptions in this study are provided in table E.3, and are measured through the lifetime of each technology The cost calculation in the table includes capital, operation and maintenance (O&M), and fuel costs, and does not take into account externality costs The capital and O&M cost assumptions are based on Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) base data, while fuel costs are calculated based on the fuel price scenario described above Bibliography ADB (Asian Development Bank) 2013 “Technical Working Paper on GHG Emissions, Scenarios, and Mitigation Potentials in the Energy and Transport Sectors of Viet Nam (draft).” ADB, Manila Dung and Sawdon 2012 Social and Economic Baseline Projections Version 6.0 Background report to ADB TA7779 (unpublished) Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 117 Appendi x F Data Tables All numbers in the following tables are the authors’ estimates and are the results of calculations made by the World Bank, based upon inputs and assumptions provided by the Institute of Energy of Vietnam (IEVN), the Transport and Development Strategy Institute (TDSI), the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), and Ernst and Young Table F.1 Business-as-Usual Scenario Electricity generation capacity by fuel type/ Technology (MW) Hydro Thermal of which Coal subcritical Coal supercritical Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Renewable of which Wind Solar Biomass Others 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 7091 14426 14452 27226 18879 37274 21459 58661 22959 80491 33% 67% 33% 63% 32% 64% 26% 70% 20% 71% 5128 7798 903 598 25 16098 9628 903 598 1523 23648 3150 9628 363 485 1000 1523 32165 16170 9628 330 368 2000 1523 32245 37920 9628 330 368 8700 1523 37% 0% 22% 2% 1% 0% 4% 40% 5% 16% 1% 1% 2% 3% 38% 19% 12% 0% 0% 2% 2% 28% 33% 8% 0% 0% 8% 1% 318 237 968 83643 318 237 968 113673 24% 0% 36% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0 20 21542 318 237 968 43201 318 237 968 58676 1% 0% 1% 2% 100% 1% 0% 0% 2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% Total table continues next page Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 119 120 Data Tables Table F.1 Business-as-Usual Scenario (continued) Electricity supply by fuel type/ Technology (GWh) Hydro Thermal of which Coal subcritical Coal supercritical Gas Oil&Diesel Diesel Nuclear Renewable of which Wind Solar Biomass Others GHG emissions by fuel type/ Technology (million tCO2) Hydro Thermal of which Coal subcritical Coal supercritical Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Renewable of which Wind Solar Biomass Others Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 24812 56662 54806 107317 67576 185154 71581 293526 73666 395259 14541 43584 1368 78 71729 35557 30 6032 103888 21021 60018 100 127 7385 6065 125703 107637 60001 89 96 14843 6094 92080 37920 52743 93 102 64623 6115 0 78 81552 680 1625 3727 168154 684 1634 3748 266181 687 1641 3766 386044 690 1646 3779 539664 30% 69% 0% 18% 0% 53% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 33% 64% 0% 43% 0% 21% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 100% 25% 70% 0% 39% 8% 23% 0% 0% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 100% 19% 76% 0% 33% 28% 16% 0% 0% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% 14% 73% 0% 17% 7% 10% 0% 0% 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 32532 84091 1179 143900 2780 236780 3814 318026 14017 17552 960 0 70441 13626 23 0 102898 17075 23716 75 136 0 124984 87738 23890 64 104 0 92362 204639 20849 68 108 0 0 0 32532 0 0 84091 0 0 145079 0 0 239560 0 0 321840 0% 100% 0% 43% 0% 54% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 84% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 1% 99% 0% 71% 12% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 1% 99% 0% 52% 37% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 1% 99% 0% 29% 64% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% table continues next page Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 121 Data Tables Table F.1 Business-as-Usual Scenario (continued) Total freight-ton and passenger kilometers (km/yr, billions) On Road 2W 3W PC LCV HCV Total on-road Waterborne Rail Total 2010 168 66 242 57 308 2015 195 110 319 79 13 410 2020 228 17 125 376 110 50 536 2025 259 34 162 463 154 75 691 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 54% 0% 2% 1% 21% 79% 19% 3% 100% 48% 0% 2% 1% 27% 78% 19% 3% 100% 43% 0% 3% 1% 23% 70% 20% 9% 100% 37% 0% 5% 1% 23% 67% 22% 11% 100% 32% 0% 7% 1% 24% 64% 24% 12% 100% 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 5284 5221 65 10575 65% 35% 0% 0% 100% 56% 44% 0% 0% 100% 54% 46% 0% 0% 100% 52% 48% 0% 0% 100% 50% 49% 0% 1% 100% 281 62 10 211 563 216 106 886 Fuel consumption by type (Gg) 2010 Petrol Diesel LPG CNG Total 3387 1792 0 5179 GHG emissions by vehicle type (million tCO2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 9958 649 667 5010 16284 3634 122 16406 8804 1007 856 6679 17346 4749 186 17532 9336 1929 1166 7666 20098 6538 685 20783 9996 3788 1632 9912 25327 9058 996 35381 10246 6681 2287 12918 32132 12557 1422 46111 61% 0% 4% 4% 31% 99% 22% 1% 100% 50% 0% 6% 5% 38% 99% 27% 1% 100% 45% 0% 9% 6% 37% 97% 31% 3% 100% 28% 0% 11% 5% 28% 72% 26% 3% 100% 22% 0% 14% 5% 28% 70% 27% 3% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2352 5899 16483 4815 29549 4139 5732 20891 8764 39527 4817 5322 25953 15400 51491 5952 4899 31209 26054 68114 7339 4638 36220 42007 90205 8% 20% 56% 16% 100% 10% 15% 53% 22% 100% 9% 10% 50% 30% 100% 9% 7% 46% 38% 100% 8% 5% 40% 47% 100% 2W 3W PC LCV HCV Total On-road Waterborne Total Rail Total Electricity consumption by appliance type (GWh) Lighting Entertainment Kitchen Appliances Heating/Cooling Total 2015 3110 2427 5541 2020 3529 3020 6554 2025 4293 3985 17 8297 table continues next page Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 122 Data Tables Table F.1 Business-as-Usual Scenario (continued) Production by industry type (Mt) Iron and Steel, ISP plants Iron and Steel, Small plants Aluminium Cement Fertilizer Refining Pulp and Paper Total Energy consumption by industry type (PJ or Mtoe) Iron and Steel, ISP plants Iron and Steel, Small plants Aluminium Cement Fertilizer Refining Pulp and Paper Total GHG emission by industry type (million tCO2) Iron and Steel, ISP plants Iron and Steel, Small plants Aluminium Cement Fertilizer Refining Pulp and Paper Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 11 14 1% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8 8 56 73 144 87 10 114 112 15 151 124 21 176 138 28 14 205 6% 0% 39% 4% 1% 50% 100% 7% 0% 77% 1% 9% 3% 100% 5% 0% 74% 1% 10% 4% 100% 5% 0% 71% 1% 12% 5% 100% 4% 0% 67% 2% 14% 7% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 25 39 60 116 148 7% 8% 9% 13% 14% 23 228 29 21 16 342 36 291 47 39 45 497 52 372 63 60 87 694 60 413 78 81 139 886 77 457 93 109 206 1091 7% 0% 67% 8% 6% 5% 100% 7% 0% 59% 9% 8% 9% 100% 7% 0% 54% 9% 9% 12% 100% 7% 0% 47% 9% 9% 16% 100% 7% 0% 42% 9% 10% 19% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2412 3890 6141 11957 15496 4% 5% 5% 9% 10% 2714 45599 1829 1610 1180 55344 4282 64883 3032 2979 3294 82360 6882 83942 4154 4574 6685 112377 8225 91959 5137 6165 10964 134407 11008 100817 6205 8330 16624 158481 5% 0% 82% 3% 3% 2% 100% 5% 0% 79% 4% 4% 4% 100% 6% 0% 75% 4% 4% 6% 100% 6% 0% 68% 4% 5% 8% 100% 7% 0% 64% 4% 5% 10% 100% Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 123 Data Tables Table F.2 Low-Carbon Development Scenario Electricity generation capacity by fuel type/ Technology (MW) Hydro Thermal of which Coal subcritical Coal supercritical Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Renewable of which Wind Solar Biomass Others Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 7091 14426 14452 27226 18879 35924 21459 51420 22959 65880 33% 67% 33% 63% 33% 63% 26% 63% 21% 61% 5128 7798 903 598 25 16098 9628 903 598 1523 23048 2400 9628 363 485 1000 1523 28565 6990 15128 368 368 2000 6323 28345 17470 19328 368 368 9700 9623 37% 0% 22% 2% 1% 0% 4% 40% 4% 17% 1% 1% 2% 3% 35% 9% 19% 0% 0% 2% 8% 26% 16% 18% 0% 0% 9% 9% 1118 700 1637 2868 81202 2118 1500 2237 3768 108162 24% 0% 36% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0 25 21542 318 237 968 43201 318 237 968 57326 1% 0% 1% 2% 100% 1% 0% 0% 2% 100% 1% 1% 2% 4% 100% 2% 1% 2% 3% 100% Electricity supply by fuel type/ Technology (GWh) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Hydro 26052 58439 78054 89595 96380 30% 35% 30% 25% 20% Thermal of which Coal subcritical Coal supercritical Gas Oil&Diesel Diesel Nuclear Renewable of which Wind Solar Biomass Others Total 59495 101572 165081 227026 270794 14541 43584 1370 41741 59825 86361 16372 62172 176 94991 48360 83530 145 52552 119716 98386 140 78 6434 7957 6459 15974 26676 74685 37824 0 78 85625 680 1625 3727 166445 684 1634 3748 257551 2439 920 10839 12088 359270 4632 1971 14786 16043 479683 69% 0% 17% 0% 51% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 61% 0% 25% 0% 36% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 100% 64% 0% 34% 6% 24% 0% 0% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 100% 63% 0% 26% 13% 23% 0% 0% 4% 7% 0% 1% 0% 3% 3% 100% 56% 0% 11% 25% 21% 0% 0% 16% 8% 0% 1% 0% 3% 3% 100% table continues next page Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 124 Data Tables Table F.2 Low-Carbon Development Scenario (continued) GHG emissions by fuel type/ Technology (million tCO2) Hydro Thermal of which Coal subcritical Coal supercritical Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Renewable of which Wind Solar Biomass Others Total Total freight-ton and passenger kilometers (km/yr, billions) On Road 2W 3W PC LCV HCV Total on-road Waterborne Rail Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 33 64 124 166 188 14 18 41 23 85 13 25 95 39 32 53 98 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 64 0 0 124 0 0 166 0 0 188 2010 2015 168 66 242 57 308 196 109 318 79 13 410 Fuel consumption by type (Gg) 2010 2015 Petrol Diesel LPG CNG Total 3387 1792 0 5179 3000 2396 5404 2020 219 17 132 374 111 52 537 2020 2853 3015 45 5914 2025 246 34 166 454 156 82 692 2025 2730 3711 148 6591 2030 265 62 10 206 542 220 122 884 2030 2451 4706 258 7420 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0% 100% 0% 43% 0% 54% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 64% 0% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 69% 11% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 57% 24% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 28% 52% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 54% 0% 2% 1% 21% 79% 19% 3% 100% 48% 0% 2% 1% 27% 78% 19% 3% 100% 41% 0% 3% 1% 25% 70% 21% 10% 100% 36% 0% 5% 1% 24% 66% 23% 12% 100% 30% 0% 7% 1% 23% 61% 25% 14% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 65% 35% 0% 0% 100% 56% 44% 0% 0% 100% 48% 51% 0% 1% 100% 41% 56% 0% 2% 100% 33% 63% 0% 3% 100% table continues next page Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 125 Data Tables Table F.2 Low-Carbon Development Scenario (continued) GHG emissions by vehicle type (million tCO2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 9958 649 667 5010 16284 3634 122 16406 8454 1007 856 6584 16901 4666 193 17095 7172 1901 1165 7752 17991 6242 690 18681 5521 3141 1628 9403 19693 8500 1074 29267 3239 4323 2279 11905 21746 11659 1576 34981 61% 0% 4% 4% 31% 99% 22% 1% 100% 49% 0% 6% 5% 39% 99% 27% 1% 100% 38% 0% 10% 6% 41% 96% 33% 4% 100% 19% 0% 11% 6% 32% 67% 29% 4% 100% 9% 0% 12% 7% 34% 62% 33% 5% 100% Electricity consumption by appliance type (GWh) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Lighting Entertainment Kitchen Appliances Heating/Cooling Total 2352 5899 16483 4815 29549 3771 6438 20569 8678 39455 3670 5755 24879 14557 48861 3460 4888 27267 23476 59090 2949 4096 29045 36378 72468 8% 20% 56% 16% 100% 10% 16% 52% 22% 100% 8% 12% 51% 30% 100% 6% 8% 46% 40% 100% 4% 6% 40% 50% 100% Production by industry type (Mt) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2W 3W PC LCV HCV Total On-road Waterborne Total Rail Total Iron and Steel, ISP plants Iron and Steel, Small plants Aluminium Cement Fertilizer Refining Pulp and Paper Total Energy consumption by industry type (PJ or Mtoe) Iron and Steel, ISP plants Iron and Steel, Small plants Aluminium Cement Fertilizer Refining Pulp and Paper Total 11 14 1% 4% 5% 6% 7% 56 73 87 10 114 112 15 151 124 21 176 137 28 14 205 12% 0% 77% 1% 8% 2% 100% 7% 0% 76% 1% 9% 3% 100% 5% 0% 74% 1% 10% 4% 100% 5% 0% 71% 1% 12% 5% 100% 4% 0% 67% 1% 14% 7% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 25 109 191 230 227 8% 20% 25% 25% 23% 57 170 29 21 16 317 55 263 47 39 44 556 54 324 63 56 85 774 52 338 77 72 135 904 48 344 90 93 197 999 18% 0% 54% 9% 7% 5% 100% 10% 0% 47% 8% 7% 8% 100% 7% 0% 42% 8% 7% 11% 100% 6% 0% 37% 8% 8% 15% 100% 5% 0% 34% 9% 9% 20% 100% table continues next page Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 126 Data Tables Table F.2 Low-Carbon Development Scenario (continued) GHG emission by industry type (million tCO2) Iron and Steel, ISP plants Iron and Steel, Small plants Aluminium Cement Fertilizer Refining Pulp and Paper Total 2010 2015 2210 9888 2984 37591 1657 1610 1370 47422 2887 58584 2725 2975 3675 80733 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 17469 21414 22726 5% 12% 17% 18% 17% 2869 2805 2650 0 65483 70803 76009 3650 4438 5215 4301 5503 7061 7062 11243 16268 100835 116205 129930 6% 0% 79% 3% 3% 3% 100% 4% 0% 73% 3% 4% 5% 100% 3% 0% 65% 4% 4% 7% 100% 2% 0% 61% 4% 5% 10% 100% 2% 0% 59% 4% 5% 13% 100% Note: 2W = two wheeler; 3W = three wheeler; CNG = compressed natural gas; CO2 = carbon dioxide; Gg = gigagram; GHG = greenhouse gas; GWh = gigawatt-hour; HCV = heavy commercial vehicle; HH = household; LCV = light commercial vehicle; LPG = liquefied petroleum gas; Mt = million tons; Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent; MW = megawatt; PC = passenger car; PJ = petajoule; tCO2 = tons of carbon dioxide Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 Appendi x G Electricity Generation Capital and Fuel Expenditures by Scenario Table G.1 Electricity Generation Capital Expenditures by Scenario CAPEX 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total BAU EE$10 BAU-EE10 LCD-EE$10 LCD-BAU 6.5 5.7 1.7 5.4 6.4 7.0 10.5 7.2 4.8 5.7 11.9 12.7 13.2 11.5 7.7 117.9 6.5 5.7 0.4 4.7 6.4 5.2 5.4 8.1 4.8 5.3 11.0 11.1 9.4 7.7 7.2 98.9 0 1.3 0.6 1.9 5.1 (0.9) 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.8 3.8 0.6 19.0 0 0 0 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 2.9 2.8 11.0 0 (1.3) (0.6) (1.0) (4.6) 1.7 0.3 0.8 (0.3) (1.2) (3.1) (0.9) 2.2 (8.1) Source: World Bank estimates Note: All coal and nuclear plants are included; all amounts are US$2010 billion BAU = business as usual; CAPEX = capital expenditure; EE = energy efficiency; FUELEX = fuel expenditure; LCD = low-carbon development Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 127 128 Electricity Generation Capital and Fuel Expenditures by Scenario Table G.2 Electricity Generation Fuel Expenditures by Scenario FUELEX BAU EE$10 BAU-EE10 LCD-EE$10 LCD-BAU 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 6.7 7.9 9.1 10.5 12.0 14.5 16.3 99.9 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.4 9.7 11.4 13.0 80.8 0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.3 19.1 0 0 0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 0 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.9) (1.1) (1.2) (1.5) (1.6) (2.0) (2.2) (3.0) (3.1) (17.6) Source: World Bank estimates Note: All coal and nuclear plants are included; $2010 billion BAU = business as usual; CAPEX = capital expenditure; EE = energy efficiency; FUELEX = fuel expenditure; LCD = low-carbon development Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 Environmental Benefits Statement The World Bank Group is committed to reducing its environmental footprint In support of this commitment, the Publishing and Knowledge Division leverages electronic publishing options and print-on-demand technology, which is located in regional hubs worldwide Together, these initiatives enable print runs to be lowered and shipping distances decreased, resulting in reduced paper consumption, chemical use, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste The Publishing and Knowledge Division follows the recommended standards for paper use set by the Green Press Initiative Whenever possible, books are printed on 50 percent to 100 percent postconsumer recycled paper, and at least 50 percent of the fiber in our book paper is either unbleached or bleached using Totally Chlorine Free (TCF), Processed Chlorine Free (PCF), or Enhanced Elemental Chlorine Free (EECF) processes More information about the Bank’s environmental philosophy can be found at http://crinfo.worldbank.org/wbcrinfo/node/4 Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0719-0 Bringing together a large set of data and building on two years of consultations in Vietnam with Government counterparts, research organizations, state-owned enterprises, the private sector, and the country’s international development partners, Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam shows that achieving low-carbon development in Vietnam is both beneficial and feasible To so, this book delineates immediate and concrete policy guidance for the Government’s consideration to lower the country’s greenhouse gas emission trajectory Based on a thorough data modeling effort, this book brings to light new data to formulate two scenarios that analyze Vietnam’s options up to the year 2030: a business-as-usual scenario and a low-carbon development scenario for the key carbon-emitting sectors of Vietnam This book is unique in that it brings together and presents data on multiple sectors of Vietnam’s economy, making this information available for future reference The effort is the result of collaboration with the Government of Vietnam as part of the Vietnam Low Carbon Options Assessment technical assistance By highlighting several economic opportunities and clarifying the issues at hand, this work constitutes a milestone in this complex debate and should help all stakeholders tasked with designing the policies and measures to address the attendant challenges ISBN 978-1-4648-0719-0 SKU 210719