MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY IMPACTS OF THE VUNG TAU – GO CONG SEA DYKE ON HYDRODYNAMIC FLOW REGIME BUI DUC TOAN MSc Thesis on Integrated Water Resources Management August 2015 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY BUI DUC TOAN IMPACTS OF THE VUNG TAU - GO CONG SEA DYKE ON HYDRODYNAMIC FLOW REGIME Major: Integrated Water Resources Management THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE Supervisor (s): Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Cao Don This research is done for the partial fulfilment of requirement for Master of Science Degree at Thuy Loi University (This Master Programme is supported by NICHE – VNM 106 Project) Ha Noi, August, 2015 ABSTRACT The low-lying terrain downstream of Saigon - Dong Nai River is most affected by natural disasters such as, flooding, saltwater intrusion causing difficulties in process of socio-economic development The project of building Vung Tau - Go Cong sea dyke with a length of 32km was proposed to solve these problems, in particularly creating a reservoir for storing water and preventing saltwater intrusion, expanding urban space, industrial parks, tourism, services, shelter from the storm boats, reserving fresh water in the future However, hydrodynamic regime in this area would be altered by the construction of Vung Tau - Go Cong, causing sedimentation in estuaries, changing salt marsh ecosystems The comparison between hydrodynamic regime with two scenarios before and after construction sea dyke will be mentioned in this thesis In this study, MIKE 21 model was used to simulate hydrodynamic regime in study area The computed domain is described as follow: Latitude: 1080000 – 1160000; Longtitude: 670000-770000 The grid which used in computation was unstructured mesh because it met the requirement of accuracy and detail computation Exported data from MIKE 11 model was used as input data for discharge boundary of model The observed water level data of Vung Tau station and global tide prediction data were used for model calibration and validation Duration time of model calibration and validation for the research site from 17/October/2000 to 20/10/2000 and 21/October/2000 to 24/10/2000 respectively The calibrated parameter was bed resistance The application of model is considered in two scenarios: without sea dike and with sea dike Both scenarios show semidiurnal tide regime in Go Cong- Vung Tau area Moreover those confirm that current is mainly influenced by tide and flow of estuaries in coastal area The construction of sea dike creates two distinct areas: The first area- Reservoir including main dike, branch dike and Soai Rap estuary; The second area - Ganh Rai Bay containing Long Tau, Thi Vai estuaries and branch dike There is a significant change in hydrodynamic regime between two scenarios at inside reservoir, for example considerable differences in phase, fluctuation amplitude of water level/current Except for inside the reservoir, there is a small change in phase, fluctuation amplitude of water level/current at outside reservoir DECLARATION I hereby certify that the work presented in this thesis entitled, “Impacts of the Dung Tau – Go Cong sea dyke on hydrodynamic flow regime ” in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the Master of Science in Integrated Water Resource Management, is done by myselft under the supervision of Assoc Prof PhD Nguyen Cao Don The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma Ha Noi, date August 2015 Bui Duc Toan ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost I would like to thank the supervisor Assoc Prof PhD Nguyen Cao Don for his great contribution in this thesis, for supporting me and guiding me stay on the right trend I want to show deep thanks to Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Thu Hien and Dr Hoang Nguyet Minh who are main coordinators, making value contributions to success in Master course and I would like to thank the CoMEM Mariette who help me improve English writing skill I would like to thank my wife, my family and my colleagues for their continuous encourages I would like to express deep thanks to KC.09.16/11-15 state project namely “Research, identification scientific arguments and proposal of Phu Quoc – Con Dao marine spatial planning for sustainable development” (Assoc Prof Dr Pham Quy Nhan is the Project Manager) that I am joining to because of its funding Finally I would like to thank NICHE VNM-106 project (funded by NUFFIC) for finance supporting and facilities for studying process Ha Noi, date August 2015 Bui Duc Toan TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT .1 DECLARATION .3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 10 1.1 Background 10 1.2 Problem statements 14 1.3 Objectives and Research questions 16 1.4 Methods 16 1.5 Structure of the thesis 17 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 18 2.1 The studies on Mekong Delta of foreign authors 18 2.2 The related researches on the lower downstream of Sai Gon-Dong Nai river basin .20 2.3 Overview of hydrodynamic models 23 2.3.1 Possible models 25 2.3.2 Selection criteria .26 2.4 Overview of MIKE 21 27 CHAPTER 3: ANALYSIS IMPACTS OF THE VUNG TAU – GO CONG SEA DYKE ON HYDRODYNAMIC REGIME 29 3.1 Governing equation 29 3.2 Model setting 36 3.2.1 Study area 36 3.2.2 Bathymetry 37 3.2.3 Mesh generation 37 3.2.4 Water level boundaries .39 3.2.5 River boundaries .39 3.3 Model calibration and validation 41 3.3.1 Model calibration 41 3.3.2 Model validation .45 3.4 Application 48 3.5 Results and discussions 49 3.5.1 Surface elevation 51 3.5.2 Current 58 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 64 CONCLUSIONS .64 RECOMMENDATIONS 65 REFERENCES 66 APPENDICES 68 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1 Vung Tau- Go Cong Sea dike project (Source: Google Earth 2010) .10 Figure 1-2 Sai Gon - Dong Nai river basin 12 Figure 1-3 Map showing the Vung Tau - Go Cong sea dike project (Source: Son ( 2012)) 15 Figure 2-1 Overview of the station net realized during the cruise in April 2007 20 Figure 2-2 Southeastern region (Source: Trinh (2007)) 21 Figure 2-3 Research area in Go Cong, Kien Giang province (Source: Hung (2011)) 22 Figure 3-1 Computational mesh .37 Figure 3-2 Study area and bathymetry of computational domain 38 Figure 3-3 Locations of river boundaries and sea boundaries 39 Figure 3-4 Hydrographs at river boundaries 40 Figure 3-5 Model calibration: Comparison between simulated and measured water level at Vung Tau gauge station (M=28 m1/3/s, 17/10/2000 01:00-20/10/2000 01:00) 43 Figure 3-6 Surface elevation in model calibration, 17/10/2000 01:00-20/10/2000 01:00 (left hand-flood tide; right hand-ebb tide) 44 Figure 3-7 Current speed in model calibration, 17/10/2000 01:00-20/10/2000 01:00 (left hand-flood tide; right hand-ebb tide) 44 Figure 3-8 Model validation: Comparison between simulated and measured water level at Vung Tau gauge station ( 21/10/2000 01:00-24/10/2000 01:00) 46 Figure 3-9 Surface elevation in model validation (left hand-flood tide; right handebb tide) .47 Figure 3-10 Current speed in model validation (left hand-flood tide; right hand-ebb tide) 47 Figure 3-11 Computational domain in the second scenario, with sea dike .48 Figure 3-12 Locations of exported results .50 Figure 3-13 Surface elevation at ebb tide, 10/20/2000 04:00, first scenario 51 Figure 3-14 Surface elevation at ebb tide, 10/20/2000 04:00, second scenario 51 Figure 3-15 Surface elevation at flood tide, 10/21/2000 17:00, first scenario .52 Figure 3-16 Surface elevation at flood tide, 10/21/2000 17:00, second scenario 52 Figure 3-17 Comparison water level elevation between two scenarios at P1-P4 53 Figure 3-18 Comparison water level elevation between two scenarios at P5-P8 54 Figure 3-19 Comparison water elevation between inside and outside reservoir , 55 Figure 3-20 Comparison water elevation between inside and outside reservoir, 55 Figure 3-21 Current speed at ebb tide, 10/24/2000 02:00, first scenario 58 Figure 3-22 Current speed at ebb tide, 10/24/2000 02:00, second scenario 58 Figure 3-23 Current speed at flood tide, 10/21/2000 17:00, first scenario .59 Figure 3-24 Current speed at flood tide, 10/21/2000 17:00, second scenario 59 Figure 3-25 Comparison current between two scenarios at P1-P4 60 Figure 3-26 Comparison current between two scenarios at P5 -P8 61 60 Figure 3-25 Comparison current between two scenarios at P1-P4 61 Figure 3-26 Comparison current between two scenarios at P5 -P8 62 Table 3-7 Comparison extreme current speed between two scenarios at P1-P8 Current Without With Up/down Locations speed(m/s) sea dike sea dike (%) P1 Near traffic bridge Vmax 0.92 1.11 21% P2 Thi Vai estuary Vmax 0.61 0.65 7% P3 Inner reservoir Vmax 0.43 0.45 5% P4 Soai Rap estuary Vmax P5 Shoulder sea dike Vmax 0.92 0.38 0.80 0.24 -14% -37% P6 Inlet sluice Vmax 0.86 1.69 96% P7 Cua Dai estuary Vmax 0.85 0.83 -2% P8 Offshore point Vmax 0.61 0.61 0% The current at flood tide and ebb tide in two scenarios is shown at Figures 3-21, 22, 23 and 24 The similarity in two scenarios is that in coastal area, the current is influenced mainly by tide and flow of estuaries The difference between the two scenarios is that the change in current speed and current direction in the reservoir which is shown at P3-inner reservoir; P4Soai Rap estuary; P5- Shoulder sea dike and P6-Inlet sluice (See Figure 3-25 and 3- 26) The marked change in current is presented at inlet sluice P6 where also current is the most concentrated in with sea dike scenario At this point, current speed in the second scenario which is twice times its in the first one could be up to 1,69m/s The dominant direction is Northwestern-Southeastern (See Figure 3-26 and table 3-7) Unlike inlet sluice point P6 where occurs only a change in current speed and no alteration in phase current, at inner reservoir point P3 presents a remarkable alteration not only in phase but also amplitude current In without sea dike scenario, this location belongs to interference region between flows 63 from Ganh Rai bay and Soai Rap estuary, therefore current speed is quite low, about 0,3m/s However in the second scenario the current speed declines to 0,15m/s This low current speed and enormous volume of alluvium from upper stream could lead to a high risk of deposition at inner reservoir region One of interesting places is the coastal line from Soai Rap estuary to shoulder of main sea dike (near to P5) In reality this area often occurs soil erosion According to Hung (2011), the main cause is the flow at Soai Rap estuary The along current from north to south results in soil erosion, brings sediment to area where is an interference region between Soai Rap estuary and Cua Tieu with low speed current, resulting in deposition The construction of sea dike would create low circular current speed and small fluctuation phase at this location, therefore coastal erosion could be diminished (see Figure 3-26, point P5) At outside reservoir, one location that should be mentioned is near traffic bridge P1 While sea dike would be built, cross section at this area would be reduced, therefore current speed would be incereased From Figure 3-25 and table 3-7, it could be up to 1,11 m/s (up to 21%) The increasing in current speed could lead to the risk of erosion of seabed at this region The other locations such as Cua Dai estuary P7, offshore point P8, a small change in phase, speed, and direction of current is presented (see Figure 3-26) 64 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONCLUSIONS After studying the thesis namely “ Impacts of Go Cong – Vung Tau sea dyke on hydrodynamic flow regime”, some results are taken into account: - Studying on natural conditions, meteorology – hydrology, social – economic features in Go Cong – Vung Tau area - The thesis revised about estuaries where influenced by tide in Melong delta and related researches on the lower of Sai Gon-Dong Nai river basin Moreover hydrodynamic models are reviewed - The thesis used MIKE 21 HD FM model to simulate hydrodynamic processes in Go Cong – Vung Tau area (surface water, current and tide) correspondent to two scenarios: without sea dike and with sea dike - The result of model calibration and validation water level at Vung Tau gauge station is quite good, therefore we can use this model to quantify hydrodynamic flow regime in Go Cong – Vung Tau area Some assessments are considered: + Two scenarios both presents irregularly semidiurnal tide regime in Go Cong – Vung Tau region + From result of current, both scenarios show that current is mainly influenced by tide and flow of estuaries in coastal area + There are considerable differences in phase, fluctuation amplitude and speed of falling water level at inner reservoir between two scenarios + The construction of sea dike creates two distinct areas: The first areaReservoir including main dike, branch dike and Soai Rap estuary; The second area - Ganh Rai Bay containing Long Tau, Thi Vai estuaries and branch dike There is a significantly different surface water level between inside and outside reservout in with sea dike scenario + The marked change in current is presented at inlet sluice, in the second scenario, it could be up to 1,69m/s 65 + The construction of sea dike would create low circular current speed and small fluctuation phase at shoulder of main sea dike or at inner reservoir, therefore coastal area where is adjacent to Cua Tieu estuary could be less eroded in one hand, the probability of sedimentations at inner reservoir would be occured in other hand + The branch sea dike could lead to a decrease of cross section near traffic bridge As a result, an increase in current speed could cause erosin in seabed at this region + Except for inside the reservoir, there is a small change in phase, speed, and direction of current at offshore region RECOMMENDATIONS - In this thesis one scenario with a gate having 3000m wide located in main dyke was considered In fact, there are several options of gate width such as: B=700m; 1000m; 2000m need to be simulated in order to find the best option of gate width based on current speed and other environmental conditions In the future, these options should be done in future study - In order to obtain comprehensive impacts of sea dike on natural condition, the other studies such as: water quality, salt intrusion, sedimentation transport etc need to be conducted - In reality, mangrove exists at coastal line from Soai Rap estuary to Ganh Rai bay The apperance of mangrove could impact on tidal current, for example delaying phase of tidal current In this thesis, the boundary of model has not yet described the role of mangrove The following research could concern in this issue to get more accurate results 66 REFERENCES Carbajal, N & Pohlmann, T (2004) Comparison between measured and calculated tidal ellipses in the German Bight Ocean Dynamics , 520-530 DHI (2007) MIKE 21&MIKE Hydrodynamic Module FM: Manual documentation Donigian, A.S (2001) Watershed model calibration and validation: The HSPF experience Aqua terra Consultants Hein, H., Karfeld, B., & Pohlmann, T (2007) Mekong water dispersion: measurement and consequences for the hydrodynamic modelling JapanVietnam Japan-Vietnam Estuary Workshop, (pp 21-28) Ho Chi Minh Hung, L M (2011) Báo cáo t ng h p: "Nghiên c u ch đ dòng ch y, phân b bùn cát d i ven bi n t c a sông Soài R p đ n C a Ti u, đ xu t gi i pháp ch ng s t l đê bi n Gò Công t nh Ti n Giang" H Chí Minh: Vi n khoa h c th y l i Mi n Nam Kim, N Q (2014) Nghiên c u gi i pháp t ng th ki m soát ng p lut vùng h l u sông Sài Gòn- ng Nai vùng lân c n Hà N i: Tr ng ih c Th y l i Linh, L.T.V., Lam, N.T., & Luan, N.T (2013) Nghiên c u tác đ ng c a đê bi n V ng Tàu - Gò Công đ n ch t l ng n ng Nai Khoa h c k thu t th y l i môi tr c vùng c a sông Sài Gòn ng , 119-127 Mau, L D (2010) Nghiên c u vùng c a sông Mê Kông trình t ng tác gi a chúng vùng n H id c tr i Nam Trung B Nha trang: Vi n ng h c Simpson, J.H (1996) Physical Processes in the ROFI regime Journal of Marine Systems , 3-15 67 Sina, A (2014) Hydrodynamics and Slanity of Pontchartrain Estuary During Hurricanes New Orleans: University of New Orleans Son, T H (2012) Innovative structure solution for dischare sluice at Vung Tau Go Cong Delft: TU Delft university Trinh, N Q (2007) Nghiên c u ch đ đ ng l c môi tr ông Nam B Hà N i: Tr ng ng vùng bi n i h c khoa h c t nhiên Wyrtki, K (1961) Physical Oceanography of the Southeast Asian Waters California WL|Delft Hydraulics, Delft University of Technology (2009), DEFLT3DFLOW manual Version 3.28, July 2009 68 APPENDICES Appendix Result of model calibration Appendix Result of model validation Appendix Result of model calibration Figure Model calibration: Comparison between simulated and measured water level at Vung Tau gauge station ( 17/10/2000 01:00-20/10/2000 01:00) Measured (m) Time 10/17/2000 1:00 10/17/2000 2:00 10/17/2000 3:00 10/17/2000 4:00 10/17/2000 5:00 10/17/2000 6:00 10/17/2000 7:00 10/17/2000 8:00 10/17/2000 9:00 10/17/2000 10:00 10/17/2000 11:00 10/17/2000 12:00 10/17/2000 13:00 10/17/2000 14:00 10/17/2000 15:00 10/17/2000 16:00 10/17/2000 17:00 10/17/2000 18:00 10/17/2000 19:00 10/17/2000 20:00 Simulated (m) ' i xi x 1.09 0.89 0.48 -0.04 -0.60 -1.00 -1.22 -1.11 -0.74 -0.24 0.32 0.71 0.88 0.85 0.60 0.20 -0.26 -0.66 -0.87 -0.83 0.94 0.32 -0.30 -0.80 -1.35 -1.55 -1.65 -1.55 -0.82 -0.11 0.56 1.12 1.39 1.29 0.92 0.43 -0.05 -0.40 -0.70 -0.55 ( xi x) 1.14 0.76 0.21 0.00 0.38 1.04 1.54 1.28 0.58 0.07 0.09 0.48 0.74 0.69 0.34 0.03 0.08 0.46 0.79 0.72 ( xi' xi )2 0.02 0.32 0.61 0.58 0.56 0.30 0.18 0.19 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.17 0.26 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.08 Time Measured (m) Simulated (m) 10/17/2000 21:00 10/17/2000 22:00 10/17/2000 23:00 10/18/2000 0:00 10/18/2000 1:00 10/18/2000 2:00 10/18/2000 3:00 10/18/2000 4:00 10/18/2000 5:00 10/18/2000 6:00 10/18/2000 7:00 10/18/2000 8:00 10/18/2000 9:00 10/18/2000 10:00 10/18/2000 11:00 10/18/2000 12:00 10/18/2000 13:00 10/18/2000 14:00 10/18/2000 15:00 10/18/2000 16:00 10/18/2000 17:00 10/18/2000 18:00 10/18/2000 19:00 10/18/2000 20:00 10/18/2000 21:00 10/18/2000 22:00 10/18/2000 23:00 10/19/2000 0:00 10/19/2000 1:00 10/19/2000 2:00 10/19/2000 3:00 10/19/2000 4:00 10/19/2000 5:00 10/19/2000 6:00 10/19/2000 7:00 10/19/2000 8:00 10/19/2000 9:00 10/19/2000 10:00 10/19/2000 11:00 -0.48 -0.02 0.52 0.91 1.11 1.05 0.76 0.26 -0.32 -0.92 -1.29 -1.37 -1.12 -0.58 0.04 0.56 0.92 1.07 0.95 0.60 0.16 -0.26 -0.58 -0.68 -0.55 -0.18 0.30 0.75 1.04 1.09 0.92 0.48 -0.07 -0.72 -1.24 -1.56 -1.55 -1.08 -0.40 0.00 0.53 0.90 1.12 1.07 0.80 0.30 -0.30 -0.95 -1.45 -1.55 -1.55 -1.41 -0.78 -0.11 0.52 1.03 1.27 1.19 0.89 0.49 0.05 -0.35 -0.50 -0.25 0.20 0.65 0.91 1.03 0.89 0.48 -0.08 -0.70 -1.20 -1.60 -1.65 -1.63 -1.36 -0.78 ( xi x) 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.79 1.19 1.06 0.55 0.06 0.12 0.88 1.72 1.93 1.30 0.36 0.00 0.29 0.81 1.10 0.86 0.34 0.02 0.08 0.36 0.49 0.33 0.04 0.08 0.53 1.04 1.14 0.81 0.21 0.01 0.55 1.59 2.50 2.47 1.21 0.18 ( xi' xi )2 0.23 0.30 0.14 0.04 0.00 0.06 0.21 0.31 0.40 0.28 0.07 0.03 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.09 0.14 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.19 0.31 0.39 0.23 0.13 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.14 Time Measured (m) Simulated (m) 10/19/2000 12:00 10/19/2000 13:00 10/19/2000 14:00 10/19/2000 15:00 10/19/2000 16:00 10/19/2000 17:00 10/19/2000 18:00 10/19/2000 19:00 10/19/2000 20:00 10/19/2000 21:00 10/19/2000 22:00 10/19/2000 23:00 10/20/2000 0:00 10/20/2000 1:00 Sum 0.24 0.71 1.01 1.09 0.88 0.48 0.09 -0.33 -0.57 -0.54 -0.28 0.16 0.64 0.92 -0.17 0.41 0.89 1.15 1.14 0.92 0.50 0.00 -0.41 -0.40 -0.10 0.25 0.62 0.90 x 0.02 Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is identified: n ( xi' F2 xi ) n ( xi x) 9.37 44.6 0,8 Where: F : Nash coefficient xi : The ith measured data xi' : The ith simulated data x : Average measured data, x 0,02(m) ( xi x) 0.05 0.48 0.98 1.14 0.74 0.21 0.00 0.12 0.35 0.31 0.09 0.02 0.38 0.81 44.60 ( xi' xi )2 0.16 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.19 0.17 0.11 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 9.37 Appendix Result of model validation Figure Model validation: Comparison between simulated and measured water level at Vung Tau gauge station ( 21/10/2000 01:00-24/10/2000 01:00) Measured (m) Time 10/21/2000 1:00 10/21/2000 2:00 10/21/2000 3:00 10/21/2000 4:00 10/21/2000 5:00 10/21/2000 6:00 10/21/2000 7:00 10/21/2000 8:00 10/21/2000 9:00 10/21/2000 10:00 10/21/2000 11:00 10/21/2000 12:00 10/21/2000 13:00 10/21/2000 14:00 10/21/2000 15:00 10/21/2000 16:00 10/21/2000 17:00 10/21/2000 18:00 10/21/2000 19:00 10/21/2000 20:00 10/21/2000 21:00 10/21/2000 22:00 10/21/2000 23:00 10/22/2000 0:00 10/22/2000 1:00 Simulated (m) ' i xi x 0.92 1.12 1.16 1.00 0.64 0.12 -0.40 -0.92 -1.28 -1.31 -1.02 -0.38 0.20 0.72 1.12 1.28 1.24 1.08 0.76 0.48 0.24 0.17 0.31 0.56 0.83 0.60 0.52 0.32 0.15 -0.09 -0.44 -0.85 -1.21 -1.39 -1.31 -0.90 -0.29 0.23 0.63 0.89 1.02 1.00 0.87 0.74 0.59 0.40 0.23 0.16 0.21 0.36 ( xi x) 0.85 1.25 1.35 1.00 0.41 0.01 0.16 0.85 1.64 1.72 1.04 0.14 0.04 0.52 1.25 1.64 1.54 1.17 0.58 0.23 0.06 0.03 0.10 0.31 0.69 ( xi' xi )2 0.10 0.36 0.70 0.72 0.54 0.32 0.20 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.12 0.22 Time 10/22/2000 2:00 10/22/2000 3:00 10/22/2000 4:00 10/22/2000 5:00 10/22/2000 6:00 10/22/2000 7:00 10/22/2000 8:00 10/22/2000 9:00 10/22/2000 10:00 10/22/2000 11:00 10/22/2000 12:00 10/22/2000 13:00 10/22/2000 14:00 10/22/2000 15:00 10/22/2000 16:00 10/22/2000 17:00 10/22/2000 18:00 10/22/2000 19:00 10/22/2000 20:00 10/22/2000 21:00 10/22/2000 22:00 10/22/2000 23:00 10/23/2000 0:00 10/23/2000 1:00 10/23/2000 2:00 10/23/2000 3:00 10/23/2000 4:00 10/23/2000 5:00 10/23/2000 6:00 10/23/2000 7:00 10/23/2000 8:00 10/23/2000 9:00 10/23/2000 10:00 10/23/2000 11:00 10/23/2000 12:00 10/23/2000 13:00 10/23/2000 14:00 10/23/2000 15:00 10/23/2000 16:00 10/23/2000 17:00 10/23/2000 18:00 10/23/2000 19:00 10/23/2000 20:00 Measured (m) Simulated (m) 1.04 1.19 1.12 0.88 0.44 -0.08 -0.68 -1.18 -1.46 -1.39 -0.96 -0.44 0.20 0.74 1.06 1.17 1.04 0.84 0.52 0.28 0.13 0.14 0.35 0.68 0.88 1.00 1.00 0.84 0.48 0.00 -0.64 -1.12 -1.44 -1.53 -1.29 -0.84 -0.28 0.28 0.66 0.91 0.96 0.84 0.64 0.50 0.52 0.37 0.18 -0.01 -0.29 -0.68 -1.05 -1.29 -1.29 -0.98 -0.37 0.20 0.64 0.93 1.07 1.04 0.89 0.75 0.54 0.29 0.06 -0.05 0.01 0.24 0.49 0.62 0.53 0.31 0.13 -0.12 -0.49 -0.89 -1.20 -1.27 -1.00 -0.36 0.24 0.71 1.00 1.11 1.03 0.85 ( xi x) 1.08 1.42 1.25 0.77 0.19 0.01 0.46 1.39 2.13 1.93 0.92 0.19 0.04 0.55 1.12 1.37 1.08 0.71 0.27 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.46 0.77 1.00 1.00 0.71 0.23 0.00 0.41 1.25 2.07 2.34 1.66 0.71 0.08 0.08 0.44 0.83 0.92 0.71 0.41 ( xi' xi )2 0.29 0.45 0.56 0.49 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.16 0.45 0.41 0.26 0.15 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.27 0.40 0.30 0.11 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.04 Time 10/23/2000 21:00 10/23/2000 22:00 10/23/2000 23:00 10/24/2000 0:00 10/24/2000 1:00 Measured (m) Simulated (m) 0.44 0.28 0.24 0.28 0.44 0.68 0.41 0.08 -0.20 -0.31 Sum x 0.24 Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is identified: n ( xi' F2 xi ) n ( xi x) 9.68 52.38 0,81 Where: F : Nash coefficient xi : The ith measured data xi' : The ith simulated data x : Average measured data, x 0, 24(m) ( xi x) 0.19 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.19 52.38 ( xi' xi )2 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.23 0.56 9.68