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Thiếu hụt ngân sách nhà nước là gì? Khái niệm chung về thiếu hụt Khác với khái niệm chi vượt dự toán hay chi vượt kế hoạch. Ký hiệu G: Chi NSNN cho tiêu dùng và đầu tư; TP: Chi chuyển giao; TR: Tổng thu thuế; TN = TR TP PBD: Primary Budget Deficit; BD: Budget Deficit; rB: Lợi tức vay từ nợ chính phủ. PBD = G – (TR – TP) = G – TN BD1 = (G + TP + rB) – TR Đo thiếu hụt ngân sách
THIẾU HỤT NGÂN SÁCH NHÀ NƯỚC Nguyễn Hồng Thắng, UEH Nội dung Thiếu hụt ngân sách nhà nước – Quan điểm – Phân loại – Nguyên nhân thiếu hụt ngân sách nhà nước Tài trợ thiếu hụt ngân sách nhà nước Nợ công Thiếu hụt ngân sách nhà nước gì? Khái niệm chung thiếu hụt Tổng chi NSNN Tổng thu thuế Khác với khái niệm chi vượt dự tốn hay chi vượt kế hoạch Các mức thiếu hụt Ký hiệu G: Chi NSNN cho tiêu dùng đầu tư; TP: Chi chuyển giao; TR: Tổng thu thuế; TN = TR - TP PBD: Primary Budget Deficit; BD: Budget Deficit; rB: Lợi tức vay từ nợ phủ PBD = G – (TR – TP) = G – TN BD1 = (G + TP + rB) – TR Đo thiếu hụt ngân sách Nguồn: Andrew B Abel, Ben S Bernanke & Dean Croushore (2011) Đo thiếu hụt NSNN VN Thiếu hụt = Tổng thu – Tổng chi Tổng thu gồm: + Thu nội địa + Thu từ dầu xuất, nhập + Thu chuyển nguồn + Thu kết dư ngân sách địa phương + Nhận viện trợ; Chi năm trước tốn năm Tổng chi gồm: + Chi thường xun + Chi đầu tư + Chi trả nợ + Bổ sung quỹ dự trữ tài + Chuyển nguồn Thiếu hụt nợ phủ Có mối quan hệ mật thiết với Nợ phủ số thời điểm, lũy kế Thiếu hụt NSNN số thời kỳ Tổng khoản thiếu hụt khứ cộng dồn lại thành dư nợ hành n n+1 n+2 n+3 Bội chi NS 700 800 900 1000 Vay bù đắp 700 800 900 1000 Dư nợ 700 1500 2400 3400 Top Ten National Budgets (2004) National Government Budgets for 2004 (In Billions of US$) Nation GDP Revenue Expenditure Exp / GDP Budget Deficit Deficit / GDP US (fed.) 11700 1862 2338 19.98% -25.56% -4.07% - 900 850 7.6% +5% +0.4% Japan 4600 1400 1748 38.00% -24.86% -7.57% Germany 2700 1200 1300 48.15% -8.33% -3.70% UK 2100 835 897 42.71% -7.43% -2.95% France 2000 1005 1080 54.00% -7.46% -3.75% Italy 1600 768 820 51.25% -6.77% -3.25% China 1600 318 349 21.81% -9.75% -1.94% Spain 1000 384 386 38.60% -0.52% -0.20% Canada 900 150 144 16.00% +4.00% +0.67% South Korea 600 150 155 25.83% -3.33% -0.83% US (state) Nguồn: www.wikipedia.org/ Phân loại thiếu hụt NSNN theo thời gian Thiếu hụt NSNN ngắn hạn: – Chi tiêu công mang tính thường xuyên – Thuế thu chưa kòp – Vay ngắn hạn Thiếu hụt NSNN dài hạn: – – – – Trong nhiều tài khoá Cho thấy tình trạng suy khu vực công Vay dài hạn Viện trợ khẩn cấp Budget Deficit (and Surplus) “Magic Equation” from Chapter 2: T – G = (I + NX) – S The Magic Equation suggests ways to finance a budget deficit (i.e T – G < 0) Private saving (S) can go up Investment (I) can fall Foreign investment (NX) can fall Because an increase in the budget deficit increases the total public debt, persistent budget deficits can lead to higher taxes in the future 33 The Arithmetic of Deficits and Debt The budget deficit in year t equals: d e fic it t = r B t−1 + G t − Tt Bt-1 is government debt at the end of year, t – or, equivalently, at the beginning of year t ; r is the real interest rate, which we shall assume to be constant here Thus rBt-1 equals the real interest payments on the government debt in year t Gt is government spending during year t Tt is taxes minus transfers during year t 34 The Arithmetic of Deficits and Debt d e fic it t = r B t−1 + G t − Tt We measure interest payments as real interest payments rather than as actual interest payments The correct measure of the deficit is sometimes called the inflation-adjusted deficit G does not include transfer payments 35 The Arithmetic of Deficits and Debt The government budget constraint states that the change in government debt during year t is equal to the deficit during year t: B − B = Deficit t t −1 Using the definition of the deficit d e fic it t = r B t t−1 + G t − Tt we can rewrite the government budget constraint as B − B = rB + G − T t t −1 t −1 t t 36 The Arithmetic of Deficits and Debt It is often convenient to decompose the deficit into the sum of two terms: Interest payments on the debt, rBt-1 The difference between spending and taxes, Gt – Tt This term is called the primary deficit (equivalently, Tt – Gt is called the primary surplus) 37 The Arithmetic of Deficits and Debt B − B = rB + G − T t −1 t Change in the debt B t − B t−1 = t −1 t t Primary deficit Interest payments r B t−1 + G t − Tt Primar y B = (1 + r ) B +Deficit G −T t t −1 t t 38 Automatic vs Discretionary Fiscal Policy Budget surplus = T – G = tY – G (where t = the average net tax rate) Automatic stabilization of the budget deficit occurs because government tax revenues depend on income If Y T which helps to restrain expansions If Y T which helps to dampen recessions Discretionary fiscal policy alters tax rates and/or government expenditures in a deliberate attempt to influence real output and unemployment 39 National Saving National Saving is the sum of private and government saving: NS = S + (T – G) Recall the Magic Equation: T – G = (I + NX) – S Rearranging yields S + (T – G) = I + NX NS = I + NX National saving has two components: (T – G) does not depend on r S increases with a higher r In a closed economy, NS = I at equilibrium 40 Effect of a Fiscal Expansion in a Closed Economy 41 Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy An Open Economy sells exports to other nations, buys imports, and experiences capital flows in and out of the country A Small Open Economy (or SOE) is considered too small for its domestic policies to affect the world interest rate Therefore, the local r must equal the world interest rate, rf The “Magic Equation” written to reflect changes in its component parts is: ∆NS = ∆I + ∆NX But since r = rf is unaffected by domestic policies ∆I = ∆NS = ∆NX Implication: If G NS NX, but I unaffected 42 Effect of a Fiscal Expansion in an Open Economy 43 The Current Account and the BOP The Current Account (CA) records the nation’s current international transactions including exports and imports of goods and services (i.e NX), net income from abroad and net unilateral transfer payments The Capital Account (KA) records international capital flows, which consist of purchases and sales of foreign assets by domestic residents, as well as purchases and sales of domestic assets by foreign residents The Balance of Payments (BOP) is the record of a nation’s international transactions Algebraically: BOP = CA + KA 44 Foreign Borrowing and Int’l Indebtedness A current account deficit must be financed either by: Net borrowing from foreigners This is recorded as a capital account surplus Net borrowing from foreign central banks This is recorded as a balance of payments deficit A nation’s Net International Investment Position is the difference between all foreign assets owned by a nation’s citizens and domestic assets owned by foreign citizens ∆ Net Int’l Investment Position = CA Balance + Net Revaluations (where Net Revaluations is the change in the dollar value of financial assets due to fluctuations in financial markets and the exchange rate) 45 YN= 10.900 Y=10.600 t=0.16 G= 1890 a b c d e actual real GDP = 0.16(10,600) = 1,696 natural real GDP= 0.16(10,900) = 1,744 natural employment deficit = 1,744 - 1,890 = -146 actual deficit =1,696 - 1,890 = -194 actual real GDP < natural real GDP cyclical deficit cyclical deficit= actual deficit - natural deficit cyclical deficit= -194 - (-146) = -48 Natural real GDP= 0.14 (10,900) = 1,526 natural employment deficit = 1,526 - 1,890 = -364 46 net exports = 40, TP= 20, NI= -15 current account balance = NX + TP + NI CAB= 40+20-15 CAB= 45 capital account balance = balance – current account capital account balance = 10 - 45 = -35 47