a s h e a r w a t e r b o o k the Rising Sea The Morris Island Lighthouse in Charleston, South Carolina, was built in 1876 approximately 1,600 feet (500 m) behind the beach Today, the lighthouse stands about the same distance out to sea The shoreline here has retreated about 3,200 feet (1000 m) since the lighthouse was constructed, mainly because of the sand-trapping effect of jetties at the harbor’s entrance Much erosion on sandy shorelines today is due to engineering structures and navigation channel maintenance, but in future decades, sea level rise will become the dominant cause of shoreline retreat The RIS I NG SEA Orrin H Pilkey and Rob Young / Shearwater Books Washington | Covelo | London A Shearwater Book Published by Island Press Copyright © 2009 Orrin H Pilkey and Rob Young All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: Island Press, 1718 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20009 Shearwater Books is a trademark of The Center for Resource Economics Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pilkey, Orrin H., 1934– The rising sea / Orrin H Pilkey and Rob Young p cm “A Shearwater Book.” Includes bibliographical references and index isbn-13: 978-1-59726-191-3 (cloth : alk paper) isbn-10: 1-59726-191-2 (cloth : alk paper) Sea level Coast changes I Young, Rob II Title gc89.p48 2009 363.34'93—dc22 2009006152 Printed on recycled, acid-free paper Design by David Bullen Manufactured in the United States of America 10 Keywords: Sea level rise, West Antarctic ice sheet, Greenland ice sheet, shoreline erosion, flooding, barrier islands, global warming, climate change, climate skeptics, coastal hazards, coastal management To Walter Pilkey for a lifetime of friendship and inspiration To David Robert Young who taught me more than he would ever know Contents Preface xi Chapter Living on the Edge Chapter Why the Sea Is Rising 25 Chapter Predicting the Unpredictable 41 Chapter The 800-Pound Gorillas 61 Chapter A Sea of Denial 81 Chapter The Living Coasts 99 Chapter People and the Rising Sea 117 Chapter Ground Zero: The Mississippi Delta 141 Chapter Sounding Retreat 159 References 183 Acknowledgments 193 Index 195 192 References Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines: Beach Nourishment Table, http://psds.wcu.edu Romm, J., 2008, Hell and high water: The global warming solution: Harper Perennial, p304 Sargent, W., 2007, Just seconds from the ocean: Coastal living in the wake of Katrina: University Press of New England, p142 Schmidt, G., 2008, Hypothesis testing and long range memory: Real Climate, http://www.realclimate.org Sengupta, B., 2009, In silt, Bangladesh sees potential shield against climate shift, New York Times, March 20, p.A16 Woodwell, G.M., 1991, Forests in a warming world: A time for new policies: Climatic Change, v19, p245–51 Keywords Sea level rise West Antarctic ice sheet Greenland ice sheet Shoreline erosion Flooding Barrier islands Global warming Climate change Climate skeptics Coastal hazards Coastal management Acknowledgments We owe much to many Owen Mason educated us about and led us to shorelines of Arctic Alaska Tony Weyiouanna, Inupiat Eskimo and able spokesperson for the village of Shishmaref, Alaska, explained the dilemma of coastal villages in a time of sea level rise and melting permafrost Bruce Molnia’s latest treatise on Alaskan glaciers may be the heaviest (literally) book we’ve seen in years His work on mountain glacier melting was important to us, and we gained much from his editorial comments on an early version of our manuscript Abby Sallenger and Robert Morton of the U.S Geological Survey, Denise Read of the University of New Orleans, and Angelina Freeman of the Environmental Defense Fund provided much insight on the Mississippi Delta and Gulf Coast sea-level-rise problems Hal Wanless, of the University of Miami and a voice of reason in the wilderness of Florida politics, inspired us with his efforts to educate the public about the inevitability of future sea level rise Ian Macintyre, Smithsonian geologist, still diving on coral reefs in his midseventies, was our coral reef adviser Wallace Kaufman kept us abreast of the critical view of global change with a flood of articles from those who manufacture doubt and from those who really did doubt the science Dame Jane Resture, South Pacific Islander, allowed us to use her beautiful poem about Tuvalu Robert Thieler, Peter Haff, Thomas Crowley, Joseph Kelley, Andrew Cooper, David Bush, and others too numerous to list advised on a variety of issues along the way Jonathan Cobb at Island Press saw the promise in this book during a phone conversation a couple of years back and has guided and encouraged us ever since A good editor has to take pains to keep the authors honest and not let their excitement for the topic get out of hand Jonathan did so with great diplomacy and became a friend in the process Sharlene Pilkey spent hours Googling after sometimes very obscure facts Norma Longo also provided extensive invaluable background research and was a very attentive copy editor Holli Thompson, Norma Longo, Bruce Molnia, Ian Macintyre, Sharlene Pilkey, Keith Pilkey, Len Pietrafesa, and Leigh Anne Young provided editing on the early chapter drafts We both owe a great deal to the support and assistance of our spouses, Leigh Anne Young and Sharlene Pilkey 193 Index Abandonment See Relocation Ablation, 69–70 Acidification, 114 Agriculture, 109, 133, 134 Ahermatypic corals, 110–111 Alabama, 163 Alaska, 61–64, 91–92, 119 See also Kivalina; Shishmaref Alcoholism among Inupiats, 12–13 Alexandria (Egypt), 118–119 Alicia, hurricane, 127 American Shore and Beach Preservation Association (ASBPA), 162–163 Amsterdam (Netherlands) vulnerability of, 138 Amundsen, Roald, 72 Andrew, hurricane, 145 Antarctic ice sheets, 34–35, 65–67, 72–79 See also Glaciers; West Antarctic ice sheet Aquaculture, 109 AR4 report, 48–52 Archer, Jane, 160 Arctic Islands, 6–7 See also Kivalina; Shishmaref Armstrong, Scott, 90–92 Artificial beaches, 160–166 ASBPA, 162–163 Assessment of sea levels, 31–33, 37–39 Asteroids, 29 Aswan Dam, 135 Atlantis, 5–6 Atmospheric pressure, 31 Atolls, 16–21, 57, 86 Australia, 3, 18, 176 Babbitt, Bruce, 151–152 Bahamas, 5, 35 Bangladesh, 16, 129, 134–135 Barrier islands, 14–15, 22, 129–130, 144–145, 149 Barrier reefs, 111 Basalt, 30 BAU, 52 Baytown (Texas), 126–127 Beach nourishment/replenishment See Artificial beaches Beagle (HMS), 16 Beaufort Sea, Beck, Glen, 82–83 Behavior, 45–46, 101 Bering Land Bridge, 6, 128–129 Bermuda, 35 Bhutan (Kingdom of ), 64 Black mangroves, 106 Bleaching, 114 Blum, Mike, 151 Boston (Massachusetts), 24 vulnerability of, 138 Bougainville (Solomon Islands), 18 Boundaries, plate tectonics and, 30 Bransfield, Edward, 72 Brazil, 32 Brownwood subdivision (Texas), 126–127 Bruun, Per, 56 Bruun Rule, 54–57 Buffet, Warren, 41 195 196 Index Bulkheads, 104 Bush, George W., 42, 88, 92 California, 170, 171 Calving, 69 Camp Ellis (Maine), 160 Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, 173–175 Cape Hatteras National Seashore, 124–125, 129–130, 173–175 Cape Town (South Africa), Carbon dioxide, 89, 95, 178 Caribbean Sea, 111 Carson, Rachel, 99 Carteret Atoll, 17–20 Catch-up reefs, 113 Cato Institute, 93, 97 Ceccarelli, Leah, 94 Chandeleur island chain, 145 Channel dredging, 58 Channels, 149 Charleston (South Carolina), 24, 44–45, 122, 124, 171 Chen, J.L., 71 Chesapeake Bay, 59 Chukchi Sea, 7, 9, 129 Circumpolar Deep Water, 77 Climate, 46 Climate Change Impacts Programme (U.K.), 51 Coal deposits, 33 Coast 2050 plan, 148, 151 Coastal Law (Spain), 175 Cocodrie (Louisiana), 157 Colombia, 3, 15, 119, 168 Columbia Glacier (Alaska), 62 Comets, 29 Composition, shoreline retreat and, 54, 56–57 Connell, John, 16 Continents, 29–30 Coral reefs, 100, 110–115, 161 Corals Elkhorn, 112–113 Head, 112–113 Staghorn, 112–113 Cordgrass, salt marsh, 102 Cores, ice, 36, 68–69 Cowell, Peter, 57 Crust, ocean dynamics and, 29–30 Cruz, Julio, 109 Cullowhee Coastal Conference, 156 Currents, 31 Cyclone Nargis, 133–134 Dams, 59, 132, 135, 146 Darwin, Charles, 16–17 Davis, John, 72 Delaware, 163–164 Deltas, 4, 132, 145–147, 151 See also specific deltas Deutsch, George, 87–88 Dinoflagellates, 112 Disclosure laws, 43 Diversions, 148 Doran, Peter, 96 Doubt See Skepticism Dowsing (water witching), 86 Dredge and fill See Artificial beaches Dredging, channel, 58 Drinking water, 64 Dubai, Dust, 64 See also Ice melting Earth, orbit of, 36 Earthquakes, 15, 22, 115, 118–119 East Africa, 108–109 East Antarctic ice sheet, 65, 72–74 See also Antarctic ice sheets Economics, 95, 162–165, 169–170, 179–180 Eddystone Light (United Kingdom), 172 Edingsville Beach (South Carolina), 122–124 Egypt, 118–119, 135 Emissions, 89, 95, 178 Index Endangered species, 90–92 Engineering See also Artificial beaches; Dams; Jetties; Seawalls Florida and, 172 limitations of, 180–181 Netherlands and, 135–136 restoration vs., 150–151 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 170–171 Epeiric seas, 33–34 Erosion, 20, 54–57, 69 See also Shoreline retreat rates, extrapolation of, 58 Estuaries, 59 Eustatic change, 32–36, 38, 39, 143, 178 Evaporation, 86 Everglades National Park (Florida), 130 Evidence-based forecasting, 90–92 Expansion, 34, 49, 52 Experience, prediction based on, 43 ExxonMobil, 92–93 Falsification, accusations of, 87 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 57, 127 Felix, Robert, 82 FEMA, 57, 127 Fernandina Beach (Florida), 38 Field observations, 44, 48, 66 Fisheries, 18, 107, 111–112 Floodgates, 22, 149, 177 Florida, 38, 105–108, 114, 130, 170– 173 Floyd, hurricane, 44–45 Forecasting See Predictions Fox News, 82, 94, 96 Fretwell, Holly, 93 Funafuti (Tuvalu), 19 Furtwängler Glacier, 26 197 Gabbro, 30 Gabions, 11 Galveston Bay, 59 Galveston (Texas), 24, 38, 126, 168, 169–170 Ganges Delta, 129 Gayoom, Maumoon Abdul, 20–21 Geodetic datum, 31 Geoid, 31–32 Give-up reefs, 113 Glacier National Park, 26 Glaciers, mountain, 26–27, 49–50, 52, 61–64 Glassworts, 102 Gore, Al, 82, 97 GRACE satellite, 67, 71, 73, 78 Granite, 30 Gravitational pull, effects on sea level, 31 Great Flood (Venice), 22 Great Hurricane of 1899 (North Carolina), 125 Great Rann of Kutch (India), 129 Great Storm of 1703 (United Kingdom), 172 Great Storm of 1893 (South Carolina), 123 Great Tumaco Earthquake (Colombia), 119 Greenhouse gases, 36 See also Carbon dioxide Greenland, 36, 67–68 Greenland ice sheet, 34–35, 51, 65–71, 78–79, 83 Grinsted, Aslak, 79 Grounding line, 76 Groundwater extraction, 127, 147 Gujarat (India), 129 Gulf Islands National Seashore, 165 Guyot Glacier (Alaska), 62 Hansen, James, 52, 79, 87–90 Happisburgh (U.K.), 40, 160 198 Index Hermatypic corals, 110–111 High Hazard Area Risk Reduction Program, 165 Honduras, 109, 114 Hot spots, ice streams and, 70 Houma (Louisiana), 157 Houston (Texas), vulnerability of, 138 Hughes, Jim, 44–45 Hugo, hurricane, 153 Human behavior, 45–46, 101 Human rights, 20 Hurricanes, 108, 120–127, 142–143 See also Specific storms Hydrological cycle, 34–35 Ice ages, 35 Ice melting, 64 See also Dust Ice shelves, 74–76 Ice streams, 70, 76–77 Ice walls, shorelines, 72 Ike, hurricane, 152, 168 Illussat marginal glacier (Greenland), 70 Inconvenient Book, An (Beck), 82–83 Inconvenient Truth, An (Gore), 82 India, 43, 129 Indonesia, 136–137 Industrialized nations, CO2 responsibility, 20 Industry, 36 doubt promotion by, 92–96 Insurance, 171–172 Integrated Ecosystem Restoration and Hurricane Protection plan, 148 Interglacial periods, 35, 68 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 34, 36, 39, 48–52, 58, 71, 82, 88–90 International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA), 86 Inupiat Eskimos, 3, 7, 20 IPCC See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Irawaddy River (Myanmar), 133 Irrigation, 64 See also Water supplies Isle Derniere (Louisiana), 120–121, 144–145 Isostatic change, 32, 38 James Clark Ross (RSS), 76 Jason-1 satellite, 39 Jefferson, Thomas, 142 Jetties, 22, 58 JunkScience, 94 Kanagaratnam, Pannir, 70–71 Kashmir Valley (India), 64 Katrina, hurricane, 14, 43, 45, 142–143, 145, 149, 152–153, 168 Keep-up reefs, 113 Kempthorne, Dirk, 92 Kigiktaq Island, 7, 10 See also Shishmaref Kilimanjaro, Mount, 26–27 Kimball, Dan, 130 Kiribati, 16, 17 Kivalina (Alaska), 7, 14, 20 Kotzebue (Alaska), 12–13, 14 La Paz (Bolivia), 64 Land bridges, 5, Larsen B Ice Shelf (Antarctica), 75–76 Last Island (Louisiana), 120–121, 144–145 Lawsuits, 14, 20 Levees, 43, 149 Ley de Costas (Spain), 175 Libertarian Party, 95, 97 Lighthouses, 172–175 Lima (Peru), 64 Lindzen, Richard S., 83 Lithosphere, 29–30, 32 Index Little Ice Age, 64, 68 Lomborg, Bjorn, 166–168 Los Angeles (California), vulnerability of, 138 Louisiana, 120–121 See also New Orleans Louisiana Coastal Hazard Mitigation Guidebook, 156 Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Report, 148, 151 Louisiana Purchase, 142 Lyell, Charles, 100–101 Macintyre, Ian, 112–113 Maine, 160 Majuro Atoll (Marshall Islands), 19 Malaria, 15, 107 Malay Peninsula, 136 Maldives, 16–17, 20–21, 52, 86, 168 Mangals, 105–108 Mangrove Action Project (MAP), 107 Mangroves, 105–109, 129, 156 See also Wetlands Manhattan (New York), 24, 138 Manufactroversy, 94 Manufactured doubt, 92–96 MAP See Mangrove Action Project Markham Ice Shelf (Canada), 76 Marshall Institute, 93, 97 Marshall Islands, 16 Marshes, salt, 102–105, 149 See also Wetlands Martin, Jim, 84 Mason, Owen, 9, 11 Media, 84, 96, 98 Medieval Warm Period, 68 Meghna River (Bangladesh), 134 Mekong River Delta (Vietnam), 58–59, 133 Mendenhall Glacier (Alaska), 62 Menouthis, 118 199 Miami (Florida), 24, 26, 51, 138, 139 vulnerability of, 138 Miami-Dade County Climate Change Task Force, 51 Michaels, David, 93 Michaels, Patrick, 83 Micronesia, 166–168 Migration, 103, 106–107 See also Relocation Milloy, Steve, 94 Mining, 20 See also Artificial beaches Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program (MsCIP), 164–165 Mississippi Delta, 4, 142–157 Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO), 149 Mitchum, Gary, 50 Modeling, mathematical, 44–48, 66, 90–91, 97, 154–156 human behavior, 45–46 qualitative, 47–48 quantitative, 47–48 Molnia, Bruce, 61–64 Monckton, Christopher, 83 “Morganza to the Gulf ” project, 149 Mörner, Nils-Axel, 82, 85–87, 90 Morris Island Lighthouse (South Carolina), 173 Morton, Bob, 147 Moulin, 70–71 MRGO See Mississippi River Gulf Outlet MsCIP See Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program Muir Glacier (Alaska), 62–63 Myanmar, 133–134 Nagoya ( Japan) vulnerability of, 138 Nasheed, Mohamed, 21 National Academy of Sciences, 151, 156 200 Index National Wildlife Federation, 104–105 Nature preserves, 128–131 Netherlands, 135–136, 177 Neumann, Conrad, 113 New Guinea, 5–6, 18, 115 New Jersey, 53, 125–126, 127, 166 New Orleans (Louisiana) See also Katrina, hurricane levee failure in, 43 options for, 148–152 overview of, 141–143 restoration, storm protection and, 152–157 subsidence, sea level rise and, 143–148 subsidence in, 127 vulnerability of, 138 New York vulnerability of, 138 New Zealand, 19 Nicholls, Robert, 137 Niger Delta, 15, 168 Nile Delta, 133, 135 Nimrod Expedition, 72 Nobel Peace Prizes, 48, 82 Nome (Alaska), 12–13, 14 Norfolk Broads (Great Britain), 3, 176 North Carolina, 124–125, 129–130, 161, 164, 170, 173–175 North Pole, 27 Northscape Properties, 176 North Slope (Alaska), Not by Fire but by Ice (Felix), 82 O’Brien, Pat, 142 Ocean acidification, 114 Ocean Beach (California), 170 Oceans circulation of, 30 continents and, 29–30 geologic past and, 33–39 measurement of sea level rise and, 37–39 origins of, 28–29 sea level assessment and, 31–33 water volume changes and, 34–37 OECD, 137–138 Oil extraction, 147 Olympia (Washington), 171 Orbit of Earth, 36 Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, 95 Oregon Petition, 95 Oreskes, Naomi, 84 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 137–138 Origins of oceans, 28–29 Osaka-Kobe vulnerability of, 138 O’Shaughnessy seawall (California), 170 Outgassing, 28–29 Outlet glaciers, 70–71, 73, 77 Palmer, Nathaniel, 72 Pandolfi, J.M., 115 Papua (New Guinea), 18, 115 Patagonia ice fields, 64 Petroleum geologists, 96 Pfeffer, Tad, 51, 79 Pharos Lighthouse (Egypt), 118 Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), vulnerability of, 138 Photosynthesis, 112 Planning, relocation and, 157 Plate tectonics, 29–30, 33–34 Plato, 5–6 Polar bears, 90–92 Politics, 43 Port Royal ( Jamaica), 119 Portugal, 130 Index Predictions, 41–59, 90–91, 101 Preparedness, overview of, 171–172 Primary productivity, 102–103 Principles of Forecasting (Armstrong), 90–91 Process models, 47–48, 97 Property and Research Center, 93 Qualitative modeling, 47–48, 97 Quantitative modeling, 47–48, 97 Quaternary, 100 Rahmstorf, Stefan, 50, 51–52 Randi, James, 86 Ranong (Thailand), 108 Real estate, 43 Realclimate.org, 97 Red Dog Mine (Canada), Red mangroves, 105–106 Red River Delta (Vietnam), 133 Reefs See Atolls; Coral reefs Relocation See also Migration atolls and, 16–21 feasibility of, 159–160, 162–165 importance of, 179 Kivalina (Alaska), 14 planning and, 157 Shishmaref (Alaska) and, 12–14 Spain and, 175 Tuvalu and, 19–20, 23 United Kingdom and, 176–177 Replenishment See Artificial beaches Restoration, 150–157 Resture, Dame Jane, 117 Retreat See Relocation Rhode Island Coastal Resource Management Council Report, 51 Ria Formosa Nature Reserve (Portugal), 130 Rice, Anne, 143 Riggs, Stan, 129–130 201 Rignot, Eric, 70–71, 78 Riley, Joseph, 171 Ripley, Chris, 59 Rita, hurricane, 142, 152, 155 Robinson, Arthur, 83–84, 95 Rocks, shoreline retreat and, 54, 56, 58 Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelf, 75 Ross Ice Shelf, 74–75 Rotterdam (Netherlands) vulnerability of, 138 Royal Society (British), 92 Russell, R.J., 143 Saleh, Mostapha, 135 Salinization, 102–103, 124, 168 Sand mining, 20 See also Artificial beaches San Francisco (California), vulnerability of, 138 San Juan de la Costa (Colombia), 119 Santa Barbara (California), 171 Sarichef Island, 7, 10 See also Shishmaref Satellite altimetry, 66 Satellite gravity measurements, 67, 73, 78 Satellite radar interferometry, 67 Satellites, 37, 66–67, 87 SBEACH, 55 Scenario models, 47–48 Sea ice, 7, 91–92 Sea level, 31 fluctuations of, 31–32 predictions for rise of, 49 Seawalls, 11–12, 58, 104, 149, 165–171 Sediment, 114, 145–147, 151 Sediment cells, 176 Shackleton, Ernest, 72 Shaping Science with Rhetoric (Ceccarelli), 94 Shishmaref (Alaska), 3, 7–16, 128–129, 157 202 Index Shrimp farming, 109 Singapore, 4, 136 Singer, S Fred, 83 Skepticism funding and, 95 Hansen and, 87–90 manufactured doubt and, 92–96 Mörner and, 82, 85–87 overview of, 82–84 polar bears and, 90–92 recommendations for sorting through claims and, 96–97 Slope, role of, 56–57, 59, 101 Smoke, Mirrors, and Hot Air report, 92–93 Snowfall, 69 Solar radiation, 87, 97 Solar system, 29 Soldado Island (Colombia), 15 Solomon Islands, 18 Somerville, Richard, 93 South Australia, 3, 176 South Carolina, 3, 122–124, 153, 173 Spain, 175 Stabilization, 165–166 See also Engineering Stafford Act, 180 St Mark’s Square (Venice), 22 Stock market, 41, 45 Storm protection, 152–157 Storm surge, 30, 153–156 Sublimation, 69 Subsidence, 4, 15, 22, 38, 126–128, 132, 143–148 Subway systems, 137 Sundarbans, 129 Sunspots, 87 Surfside (Texas), 160 Surrender option, 160 Tampa/St Petersburg (Florida) vulnerability of, 138 Tarawa, 17, 111 Tectonics, 29–30, 33–34 Temperature, 34, 114 Texas, 160, 168, 169–170 Thailand, 108 Thames River Barrier, 177 Thatcher, Margaret, 83 Thera, Thermal expansion, 34, 49, 52 Thresholds, 65 Tide gauges, 36–37, 86–87 Tides, 30, 77 Tokelau, 16 Tokyo ( Japan) subsidence zone, 127 vulnerability of, 138 TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, 39 Tourism, 20–21, 22, 111, 114 Tsunamis, 15, 108, 115, 119, 156 Turbidity, 114 Tuvalu, 16–17, 19–20, 23, 86, 117, 157 Tyranny of distance, 16 UNESCO, 105 Uniformitarianism, 100–101 Union of Concerned Scientists, 93 United Kingdom, 160, 166, 172, 176–177 U.S Army Corps of Engineers, 13–14, 55, 146, 148–149, 154, 180–181 U.S Geological Survey, 61 Ushuaia (Argentina), 64 van Heerden, Ivor, 43 Vaughn, David, 79 Velicogna, Isabella, 78 Venice (Italy), 21–23, 127 Vietnam, 58–59, 132–133 Virginia Beach (Virginia) vulnerability of, 138 Volcanic eruptions, 28–29 Volcker, Paul, 45 Index von Bellingshausen, Fabian Gottleib, 72 Von Kotzebue, Otto, 10 Wahr, John, 78 Waikiki (Hawaii), 114 Walmsley, Ty, 153 WALSE workshop, 77 Wanless, Hal, 114 Water cycle, 34–35 Weather, 46 West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), 50, 59, 65, 74–77, 83 See also Antarctic ice sheets West Nantuq (Alaska), 13 Wetlands, 100–102, 124, 146–147, 154–156 See also Mangroves; Marshes, salt Weyiouanna, Tony, 8, 12, 15 Whaling, 124–125 White mangroves, 106 Wiggers, Ernie, 124 Wilkins Ice Shelf, 76 Winstanley, Henry, 172 Wood, A Baldwin, 142 Yorke Peninsula (Australia), 3, 176 Young, Lady Barbara, 176 Yusquare (Honduras), 109 Zimmerman, Maggie, 96 Zooxanthellae, 112, 114 203 [...]... to accepting the challenge of the rising sea or ignoring it until it is too late and we drive over the cliff The RIS I NG SEA Chapter 1 Living on the Edge All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full Ecclesiastes 1:7 A rising sea is not something that may happen in the future It is already upon us Planners turned down construction of a large residential development on the Yorke Peninsula,... penetrating the house when someone opens the outer door These houses stand in sharp contrast to the thatched-roof dwellings perpetually open to the ocean breezes Living on the Edge 7 on the atolls of the South Pacific that are also in danger from sea level rise Satellite measurements show that the level of the sea is rising in the Arctic Ocean, but that’s only part of the problem facing these high-latitude... named the inlet at the north end of the island Shishmaref after a crew member, a name adopted eventually for the village itself and for the lagoon behind the village Until the beginning of the twentieth century, the Eskimos may have used the island only as a winter camp; during the warmer season, they spread out to other islands and the mainland to hunt and fish Their descendants do the same today, occupying... will further degrade as sea level rises The distribution and the migration pathways of land mammals, birds, and insects will change, and some species will disappear entirely Mosquitoes will appear in the high Arctic Of all the ongoing and expected changes from global warming, however, the increase in the volume of the oceans and accompanying rise in the level of the sea will be the most immediate, the. .. by rising seas In England, regulators declared that six small villages on the Norfolk Broads northeast of London will need to be abandoned as sea level rises To avoid the rising sea, the 580 Inupiat Eskimo inhabitants of Shishmaref, Alaska, will likely be moved to the mainland at a cost of several hundred thousand dollars per resident On barrier islands along the Pacific coast of Colombia where the sea. .. Atlantis, only to disappear somehow beneath the waves Some writers today cling to a belief that the Bahama Banks hold the answer to the island’s disappearance, that the long, narrow bands of underwater limestone there (actually cemented beach sand) are remnants of either the mythical city’s roadways or its building foundations 6 The Rising Sea Others of the Atlantis faithful believe that a cataclysmic... submerged continental shelves The ruins of ancient Alexandria on the Nile Delta and other once important cities lie submerged on the floor of the Mediterranean Sea Alexandria fell into the sea, not as a result of a gradual sea level rise but because of a catastrophic and instantaneous sinking of the land surface during an earthquake Ancient migration routes like the one across the Bering Strait between... below the waves But there is a problem in paradise By most measures, the coral atoll islands (mostly in the South Pacific) should be number one on the list of nations endangered by sea level rise The inhabited portions of atolls lie around only 3 feet (0.9 m) above the level of the sea, just like currently threatened Arctic coastal villages and the endangered zones of Bangladesh Relative to the 15... threatened with rising seas, however, these island nations have tiny populations They include Kiribati (28,000 population), the Maldives (269,000), the Marshall Islands (58,000), Tokelau (2,000), and Tuvalu (10,000), among others What distinguishes their plight from other threatened nations is that the atoll dwellers have no place to go, no higher ground in their possession for escape They suffer from... don’t have Just like the problem the Inupiats from Shishmaref face, well-honed hunting and fishing skills are of little use in an industrialized society Rising seas are not an abstract notion for atoll communities These nations face the loss of the very physical basis of their national sovereignty and the loss of their culture All are contemplating a mass movement of their citizenry Furthest along in this