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PERSPECTIVES SERIES 2011 Progressing towards post-2012 carbon markets Brand Usage Guidelines PERSPECTIVES SERIES 2011 Progressing towards post-2012 carbon markets Brand Usage Guidelines Contents Foreword Editorial SECTION POLICY Fragmentation of international climate policy – doom or boon for carbon markets? 13 Axel Michaelowa Perspectives on the EU carbon market 25 Christian Egenhofer China Carbon Market 37 Wei Lin, Hongbo Chen, Jia Liang The National Context of U.S State Policies for a Global Commons Problem 49 Robert Stavins Mind the Gap: The State-of-Play of Canadian Greenhouse Gas Mitigation 59 David Sawyer Role of the UN and Multilateral Politics in Integrating an Increasingly Fragmented Global Carbon Market Kishan Kumarsingh 73 SECTION EXISTING INSTRUMENTS Making CDM work for poor and rich Africa beyond 2012: a series of dos and don’ts 87 Durando Ndongsok Voluntary Market – Future Perspective 101 Nithyanandam Yuvaraj Dinesh Babu SECTION NEW INSTRUMENTS ă Sectoral Approaches as a Way Forward for the Carbon Market? 113 Wolfgang Sterk The Durban Outcome 127 A post 2012 Framework Approach for Green House Gas Markets Andrei Marcu UNEP Risø Centre Systems Analysis Division Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy Technical University of Denmark PO Box 49 DK-4000 Roskilde Denmark Tel: +45 4677 5129 Fax: +45 4632 1999 www.uneprisoe.org ISBN 978-87-550-3944-5 Graphic Design and Layout: KLS Grafisk Hus A/S, Denmark Printed by: KLS Grafisk Hus A/S, Denmark Disclaimer The findings, opinions, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this report are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the UNEP Risø Center, the United Nations Environment Program, the Technical University of Denmark, nor to the respective organizations of each individual author FOREWORD The transition towards low carbon development focuses on the role of carbon markets in contribut- and more broad based green growth are vital to ing to low carbon development and new mecha- addressing some of the most pressing challenges nisms for green growth, as one core area of action facing the global community, such as global warm- to address the challenges noted above Under the ing and unsustainable use of natural resources title of ‘Progressing towards post-2012 carbon Confronting the end of the first Kyoto Commit- markets’ the publication explores, how carbon ment period in 2012 with no agreed outcome for markets at national, regional and global levels can global cooperation on future emission reductions, be developed and up-scaled to sustain the involve- there is an urgent need to look for new opportu- ment of the private sector in leveraging finance nities for public and private cooperation to drive and innovative solutions to reduce greenhouse gas broad-based progress in living standards and keep emissions projected future warming below the politically agreed degrees Celsius GGGI opened the first regional office in May 2011 at the Technical University of Denmark, where the Responding jointly to these global challenges the UNEP Risø Centre is located and this report repre- United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) sents a first collaborative effort and its UNEP Risø Centre (URC) have in cooperation with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) prepared the Perspectives 2011 The publication Richard Samans John Christensen Executive Director Head GGGI UNEP Risø Centre Editors: Søren Lütken (snlu@risoe.dtu.dk) and Karen Holm Olsen (kaol@risoe.dtu.dk) EDITORIAL The absence of agreement on a second commit- part of an integrated global carbon market? Do the ment period for the Kyoto Protocol or another le- new instruments constitute a threat or an oppor- gally binding agreement is creating uncertainty for tunity for carbon markets? investors looking to invest in emissions reduction activities all over the world This year’s Perspec- Ten articles in Perspectives 2011 address these tives from UNEP and its UNEP Risoe Centre focuses questions Durando Ndongsok shares experiences on the mushrooming of initiatives that are filling from the CDM in Africa and takes a critical look the global vacuum while waiting for a post-2012 at the perspectives for CDM and future mecha- climate agreement These may provide the building nisms in Africa, despite a preferential status in blocks and lead the way for carbon markets in the the EU ETS post-2012 Christian Egenhofer con- future Local and regional initiatives have emerged tends that the future European carbon market is in countries like India, South Korea, China, Japan, unlikely to induce noticeable demand while it still Australia, Brazil and others Compared to the situ- remains the backbone of global carbon markets ation prior to negotiating the Kyoto Protocol, the The carbon credit overhang may seek towards the international community may find that it no long- voluntary markets that are experiencing a new dy- er shapes the global carbon market, but will need namism, as described by Dinesh Babu, or it may to find ways of integrating the market fragments wait for a scaled-up cost-efficiency mechanism that have already established themselves like the sectoral crediting approach, as suggested by Wolfgang Sterk Meanwhile the USA and Canada The current situation gives rise to a number of are lagging behind on carbon trading, as both Rob- questions Is a global carbon market possible that ert Stavins and David Sawyer describe, while at the incorporates these diverse initiatives? If so, what same time experiencing a significant fragmenta- would it look like? How can carbon markets reach tion of the emissions-related markets within their their full potential and contribute to a significant borders Axel Michaelowa argues that fragmen- scaling-up of climate finance by 2020? Can bot- tation comes at a cost and maintains that a top- tom-up approaches and voluntary markets help down regime remains the preferential outcome us reduce greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently of the negotiations But fragmentation is already to keep global warming below degrees Celsius? becoming a reality in China, a rapidly rising new- How will existing mechanisms evolve, and how comer in the exclusive group of countries that, as will new instruments operate: independently, or as described by Wei Lin, Hongbo Chen and Jia Liang is seeking to establish its own national carbon- ment momentum that is unlikely to come to a halt trading markets Therefore, as Kishan Kumarsingh overnight Thus, what the current market has done describes, the role of the UN is fast becoming that above anything else is to ensure that there is a of the ‘coordinating entity’ of a global programme common understanding of the issue and a global of activities, the diversity of which is threatening drive to find ways to keep rewarding the pursuit of the liquidity of the global carbon market unless a emission reductions regulator assumes the task of ensuring compatibility Finally, there is still the chance that Durban Acknowledgements will provide the breakthrough and deliver a suite Perspectives 2011 has been made possible thanks of new GHG market instruments, as Andrei Marcu to support from the Global Green Growth Institute suggests, that will ultimately go beyond off-setting (GGGI) (www.gggi.org), which opened an office on and mean the beginning of up-scaled carbon mar- the DTU Risø Campus in Denmark in 2011 The kets, with additional benefits for the atmosphere Perspectives series started in 2007 thanks to the multi-country, multi-year UNEP project on Ca- Perspectives 2011 is organized into three inter- pacity Development for the Clean Development related sections covering policy, existing instru- Mechanism (CD4CDM), funded by the Ministry of ments and new instruments The first section is a Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands Since 2009, collection of articles presenting the range of policy Perspectives has been supported by the EU project responses from a number of essential players – the on capacity development for the CDM in African, EU, China, the USA and Canada, and not least the Caribbean and Pacific countries (ACPMEA) A wide UN in a potentially coordinating role The second range of publications have been developed to sup- section discusses perspectives for existing mar- port the educational and informational objectives kets and mechanisms, in which the CDM and its of capacity development for the CDM with the aim recent adjustments and additions may inspire the of strengthening developing countries’ participa- structuring of future instruments, while the volun- tion in the global carbon market The publications tary market, free from top-down regulation, may and analyses are freely available at www.cd4cdm also explore other less compliance-related cor- org, www.acp-cd4cdm.org and www.cdmpipeline ners of emissions-reduction markets and indeed org inspire the development of new approaches Such new approaches are the focus of the third section, Finally, we would like to sincerely thank our col- in which sectoral crediting and new market mecha- leagues in UNEP and the UNEP Risø Centre, par- nisms are the main concepts being promoted in ticularly Maija Bertule, Jørgen Fenhann, Mauricio the negotiations Zaballa, Kaveh Zahedi, John Christensen and Mette Annelie Rasmussen, for their support in the edi- Paradoxically, while many seem to be on the look- torial process, including administration, outreach out for something new to follow the Kyoto flexible and communication mechanisms, the CDM is thriving Never has the number of new projects entering into validation on a monthly count been higher than now, reaching over 200 Of course, part of this is an End of The UNEP Risø Centre Business syndrome, but a more positive interpre- Energy and Carbon Finance Group tation is that it provides evidence for an invest- Supporting low-carbon development in developing countries, UNEP and its UNEP Risø Centre (www uneprisoe.org) have a leading role in analytical development and capacity building for the CDM and NAMAs and are well positioned to support the development and implementation of mitigation actions in developing countries A core thematic focus is to help developing countries pursue development objectives using carbon finance to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency The group consists of about fifteen staff coordinated by Miriam Hinostroza: milh@risoe.dtu.dk 10 Section Policy 11 ... warm- to address the challenges noted above Under the ing and unsustainable use of natural resources title of ? ?Progressing towards post- 2012 carbon Confronting the end of the first Kyoto Commit-... transition towards low carbon development focuses on the role of carbon markets in contribut- and more broad based green growth are vital to ing to low carbon development and new mecha- addressing...PERSPECTIVES SERIES 2011 Progressing towards post- 2012 carbon markets Brand Usage Guidelines Contents Foreword Editorial