Impacts of the Safe Routes to School Program on Walking and Bicycling Noreen McDonald University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Outline • Children’s Travel • Impacts of the Safe Routes to School Program • Work @ ITS Children’s Travel 25% of the population Source: American Factfinder 33% of households Source: American Factfinder 20% of vehicle trips Source: National Household Travel Survey Why we need to understand children’s travel? Predicting Adult Travel Infrastructure Investments Physical Activity Opportunities Safe Routes to School Program Impacts Shift to Automobility US Mode to School, 5-18 year olds 60 Auto 50 40 30 20 10 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 School Bus Walk/ Bike Transit 2010 Source: McDonald, et al 2011 AJPM 41(2): 146-151 SRTS Goals • “enable and encourage children to walk and bicycle to school” • “make bicycling and walking to school a safer and more appealing transportation alternatives” 10 Results 21 Walking and Biking to School 30% 20% 10% 0% Before SRTS Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0.1-1.0 years 1.1-2.0 years 2.1-3.0 years 3.1-4.0 years After SRTS 4.1-5.0 years >5.0 years 22 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 23 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) Education and Encouragement 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 • 0.9 point increase per year • Over years, a relative increase of 25% 24 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 25 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0.8 Enforcement 0.9 • No statistically significant effect 1.2 1.2 3.2 26 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 27 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0.8 Engineering 0.9 • 3.2 point one-time increase • Relative increase of 20% 1.2 1.2 3.2 28 Policy Implications • SRTS program associated with more walking and bicycling • Mainstream SRTS programs 29 Work @ ITS 30 Image Source: http://www.basf-new-business.com/ Source: The Atlantic Image Source: The Atlantic Millennial Travel Declining licensure & mobility Impacts and explanations 31 Image Source: New York Times The Millennial Economy: Links between Transport and Work for a New Generation Changing Nature of Workforce Transition & Role of Transport as Barrier/Facilitator 32 Image Source: https://www.sccsc.edu/client/NewsDetail.aspx?id=9381 Tradeoffs between Environmental Benefits and Social Exclusion: Are There Risks to the Downturn in Driving? Which groups have seen largest declines? Are needs being met? http://media.salon.com/2013/08/boomerang_babies_money_jobs.jpg 33 Children’s Travel Air Quality & Physical Activity + Physical Activity Walking and Biking ? + Health Pollution Intake 34 Image Source: http://www.perey.com/images/social_networking.jpg Questions noreen@unc.edu N.McDonald@leeds.ac.uk 35 [...]... Proportion Walking and Bicycling to School School Characteristics Time Period 14 Data Walking and Biking to School • Administrative Data • Student Report • Parent Report 15 Source: National Center for Safe Routes to School 16 Data Walking and Biking to School SRTS Interventions • 4Es • Engineering • Education, Encouragement • Enforcement 17 Data: Measuring SRTS Step Function % Walk Bike Linear Function...SRTS by the Numbers $1.2 Billion Funding Source: McDonald, et al 2013 AJPM 45(4): 401-406 1 in 5 Schools 11 Research Question • Do SRTS programs affect the proportion of children walking and bicycling to school? 12 Research Design Randomized Controlled Trial Quasiexperimental • 4 states • 801 schools • 2007-2012 13 Approach SRTS Interventions Neighborhood Characteristics yit... Number of Years SRTS Time Presence + Number of Years 18 Data Walking and Biking to School SRTS Interventions School and Neighborhood • US Dept of Education • Census 19 • WalkScore Methods: Functional Form Fractional Logit exp( X ) Y 1  exp( X ) + - • Predictions inside (0,1) • 0&1 • Marginal effects • Unbalanced panel Source: Papke and Wooldridge, 2008; Papke and Wooldridge, 1996 20 Results 21 Walking. .. Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0 2 4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 27 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald,... Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0 2 4 Education and Encouragement 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 • 0.9 point increase per year • Over 5 years, a relative increase of 25% 24 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence... Economy: Links between Transport and Work for a New Generation Changing Nature of Workforce Transition & Role of Transport as Barrier/Facilitator 32 Image Source: https://www.sccsc.edu/client/NewsDetail.aspx?id=9381 Tradeoffs between Environmental Benefits and Social Exclusion: Are There Risks to the Downturn in Driving? Which groups have seen largest declines? Are needs being met? http://media.salon.com/2013/08/boomerang_babies_money_jobs.jpg... 3.2 point one-time increase • Relative increase of 20% 1.2 1.2 3.2 28 Policy Implications • SRTS program associated with more walking and bicycling • Mainstream SRTS programs 29 Work @ ITS 30 Image Source: http://www.basf-new-business.com/ Source: The Atlantic Image Source: The Atlantic Millennial Travel Declining licensure & mobility Impacts and explanations 31 Image Source: New York Times The Millennial... -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0 2 4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 25 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0 2 4 0.8... 20 Results 21 Walking and Biking to School 30% 20% 10% 0% Before SRTS Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA 80(2) 0.1-1.0 years 1.1-2.0 years 2.1-3.0 years 3.1-4.0 years After SRTS 4.1-5.0 years >5.0 years 22 Results: SRTS Program Impacts Proportion Walk/Bike -2 Education & Presence Encouragement # of Years Presence Enforcement # of Years Engineering Presence # of Years -1 Source: McDonald, et al 2015 JAPA... largest declines? Are needs being met? http://media.salon.com/2013/08/boomerang_babies_money_jobs.jpg 33 Children’s Travel Air Quality & Physical Activity + Physical Activity Walking and Biking ? + Health Pollution Intake 34 Image Source: http://www.perey.com/images/social_networking.jpg Questions noreen@unc.edu N.McDonald@leeds.ac.uk 35 ... “enable and encourage children to walk and bicycle to school • “make bicycling and walking to school a safer and more appealing transportation alternatives” 10 SRTS by the Numbers $1.2 Billion Funding... McDonald, et al 2013 AJPM 45(4): 401-406 in Schools 11 Research Question • Do SRTS programs affect the proportion of children walking and bicycling to school? 12 Research Design Randomized Controlled... Data Walking and Biking to School • Administrative Data • Student Report • Parent Report 15 Source: National Center for Safe Routes to School 16 Data Walking and Biking to School SRTS Interventions