ESSAYS ON RISK AND SOCIAL PREFERENCES: EVIDENCE FROM GENES, CULTURE, AND STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS LU YUNFENG (MASTER of ECONOMICS, SUN YAT-SEN UNIVERSITY) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2015   i   DECLARATION I hereby declare that this thesis is my original work and it has been written by me in its entirety I have duly acknowledged all the sources of information which have been used in the thesis This thesis has also not been submitted for any degree in any university previously _   ii   Acknowledgements No man is an island I would like to thank all the people who provided support and help throughout my PhD study My main supervisor Chew Soo Hong gave me a role model to be a researcher who can find ideas independently, observe high intellectual standard, focus on the details, and refine his work relentlessly Under his supervision, I learned how to research rigorously His support is the most important factor that made this thesis possible Professor Richard Ebstein shared with me his research passion and deep insights from biology His intellectual input is indispensible for my interdisciplinary research I really appreciate his help and support in these years I would also thank Professor Jessica Pan, Chong Juin Kuan, Zhong Songfa, and Lu Yi They gave me numerous suggestions in my PhD study, broadened my research toolbox, and sharpened my research skills My friends provided a lot of comments and encouragement in my research and daily life Zhang Xing, Qian Neng, Li Jingping, Jiang Yushi, Shen Qiang, Xie Huihua, and Miao Bin, thank you! Finally I would like to thank my wife Hu Shu I met her in our PhD study years, and we supported each other in our research journeys These years are the best days in my life   iii   Table of Contents Summary vii List of Tables ix List of Figures xi Peripheral Serotonin Receptor 2A (HTR2A) Gene Expression and Financial Risk Preferences: Association with Loss Aversion, Anxiety-Related Personality Traits and Polymorphism 1.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………… 1.2 Materials and Methods ………………………………………………… 1.2.1 Experimental Tasks ………………………………………………… 1.2.2 Lab Procedures for DNA Genotyping and Gene Expression …… 1.3 Results ………………………………………………………………… 1.3.1 Data …………………………………………………………………… 1.3.2 Econometric Models ………………………………………………… 11 1.3.3 Estimation Results …………………………………………………… 13 1.3.4 Robustness Checks ………………………………………………… 16 1.3.5 Evidence from Personality Traits ………………………………… 19 1.3.6 HTR2A Expression and Genetic Variation ………………………… 22 1.4 Discussion ……………………………………………………………… 26   iv   1.5 Appendix ………………………………………………………………… 37 1.5.1 Appendix A: Experimental Instructions …………………………… 37 1.5.2 Appendix B: Ordered Logit Regression Results ………………… 43 The Rice Culture Theory of Cooperative Behavior: Evidence from Incentivized Decision Making Tasks in China 44 2.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………… 44 2.2 Literature ………………………………………………………………… 47 2.3 Results ………………………………………………………………… 53 2.3.1 Empirical Strategy ………………………………………………… 53 2.3.2 Evidence from Incentivized Experimental Games ……………… 54 2.3.3 Evidence from China Family Panel Studies Data ……………… 69 2.3.4 Discussion …………………………………………………………… 76 2.4 Conclusions …………………………………………………………… 80 2.5 Appendix …………………………………………… ……………… 78 2.5.1 Appendix A: Instructions for Behavioral Experiments ………… 78 2.5.2 Appendix B: First Stage Results of Instrumental Regression of the Public Goods Game ………………………………………………………… 87 2.5.3 Appendix C: Results of Trustworthiness in the Trust Game …… 88 Does the Stake Size Matter in Penalty Kick? - An Experimental Investigation of the Two-Stage Matching Pennies Game 89 3.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………… 89   v   3.2 Experimental Design ………………………………………………… 93 3.3 Theoretical predictions ……………………………………………… 95 3.4 Results …………………………………………………………… … 100 3.4.1 Equilibrium Frequencies and the Stake Size Effect ……… … 100 3.4.2 Asymmetry of Player Roles …………………………….…… … 103 3.4.3 Serial Correlation ………………….………………………… … 103 3.5 Discussion …………………………………………………………… 104 3.6 Conclusions …………………………………………………………… 107 3.7 Appendix …………………………………….………………………… 109 3.7.1 Appendix Table A1 Pair Level Data ……………………………… 109 3.7.2 Appendix Table A2 Serial Correlation Results … ……………… 111 3.7.3 Appendix Table A3 Group Level Frequency Data with All Subjects … ……………………………………………………………… 113 3.7.4 Appendix Table A4 Between Subject Comparison with All Subjects … …………………………………………………………… … 113 3.7.5 Appendix A5: Instructions for the Experiment ………… ……… 114 Bibliography   116 vi   Summary Risk and social preferences are the fundamental blocks in behavioral economics The three essays in this dissertation study people’s risk and social preferences from an empirical and experimental perspective We use biological data, in addition to observable choice data and field data, to investigate the determinants of risk and social preferences as well as factors that may influence people’s behavior in several decision making settings In Essay 1, we examine how the level of serotonin receptor 2A (HTR2A) gene expression in blood influences people’s risk attitude elicited in incentivized decision making tasks We estimate structural models of prospect theory, and show that HTR2A is associated with the loss aversion parameter The additional results of association between HTR2A and two personality measures Neuroticism as well as Harm Avoidance gave further support for the main finding Finally we validated the blood genomics approach by showing that Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) variation is correlated with overall HTR2A expression In Essay 2, we investigate the rice culture hypothesis using the observed choice behavior for several experimental economics games in China It has been proposed (Talhelm et al., 2014) that a history of rice farming makes cultures more interdependent while wheat farming makes cultures more independent, and that these longstanding agricultural   vii   practices continue to influence cultures into the modern era We find that the difference of cooperative behavior in the public goods game is explained by the extent of rice culture locally, proxied by the proportion of land used for rice farming The rice culture theory is further corroborated in examining non-choice data relating to cooperativeness from a national representative survey data, China Family Panel Studies Essay studies behavior in a two-stage matching pennies game where players face both objective risk and strategic uncertainty We examine the effect of varying stake size in an experimental setting and show that the observed stake-size effect can be compatible with equilibrium behavior derived from recursive expected utility theory or quantal response model, but not from a standard expected utility specification   viii   List of Tables Table 1.1 Choices in the Five Tasks ……………………………………… Table 1.2 Summary Statistics ……………………………………………… 10 Table 1.3 Switching Points in the Five Tasks …………………………… 11 Table 1.4 Structural Estimation of Prospect Theory …………………… 15 Table 1.5 Structural Estimation by Gender Subsample ……… …… 16 Table 1.6 Alternative Probability Weighting Functions ………………… 18 Table 1.7 Alternative Risk Tasks ………………………………………… 19 Table 1.8 Ordered Logit Regression Results ………………………… 43 Table 2.1 Sample Distribution across Provinces ……………………… 58 Table 2.2 Summary Statistics …………………………………………… 59 Table 2.3 Average Contribution in the Public Goods Game ………… 59 Table 2.4 OLS and IV Estimates of The Public Goods Game ………… 61 Table 2.5 The Trust Game ……………………………………………… 62 Table 2.6 Controlling for Risk …………………………………………… 63 Table 2.7 IV Estimates of the Modified Dictator Game ………………… 65 Table 2.8 Person B’s Choice of Left in the Sequential Game ………… 67 Table 2.9 Person B’s Choice of Right in the Sequential Game ……… 68 Table 2.10 Get and Give Help …………………………………………… 70 Table 2.11 Social Interaction ……………………………………………… 72 Table 2.12 Village Expenditure …………………………………………… 74   ix   Table 2.13 Economic Growth and Rice Farming ……………………… 75 Table 2.14 Modernization Hypothesis ………………………………… 77 Table 2.15 Death Rate of Infectious Diseases ………………………… 79 Table 2.16 Distance to Beijing …………………………………………… 80 Table 3.1 Group Level Frequency Data ……………………………… 101 Table 3.2 Between Subject Comparison ……………………………… 102 Table 3.3 Comparisons of Theories and Evidence …………………… 106 Table 3.4 The Stake Size Effect in QRE ……………………………… 107 Table A1 Pair Level Data ………………………………………………… 109 Table A2 Serial Correlation ……………………………………………… 111 Table A3 Group Level Frequency Data with All Subjects …… …… 113 Table A4 Between Subject Comparison with All Subjects … …… … 113   x   3.7.5 Appendix A5: Instructions for the Experiment16 You and the person seated next to you will repeatedly play a simple game of pursuit and evasion, or "hide and seek" Your roles have been randomly decided by drawing lots – one is the Pursuer, and the other is the Evader When the game begins, each privately chooses his or her color of the card – red or black – and puts it on the desk with the colored side facing down for concealment Now, both the Pursuer and the Evader open their cards If the colors of the cards don’t match (one card is red, the other black), the Evader will win, since the Pursuer has not found him On the contrary, if the colors of cards match (both cards are red or both are black), the Pursuer finds the Evader, but whether he or she finally wins the round depends on the number generated by the throwing a dice In this case, the Judge will throw a dice to get a random number from to Notice that each number from to occurs with an equal probability The final outcomes are generated according to the following table: If dice is or 2: If dice is 3, 4, 5, or 6: If both choose red: The Pursuer wins The Evader wins If both choose black: The Evader wins The Pursuer wins If one choose red, and the other choose black: The dice is not thrown The Evader wins When the winner is decided, the Judge will record the moves and the die number, the players' cards will be returned to them, and a new round begins At this stage, the winner will get Yuan The game will last for many rounds In the first stage of the game, you will attend 100 rounds of the game like this; in the second stage, you will attend another 100 rounds of the similar game with a different payoff                                                                                                                 16  The original form is in Chinese     114   First, each of you will get 30 Yuan for 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