HỒNG CƠNG Q - - HỒNG CƠNG Q - Chun ngành: CHÍNH SÁCH CƠNG Mã s : 60 34 04 02 LU NG D N KHOA H C: TS LÊ NG C UY N Kính Tây Ninh, ngày 23 tháng CAM N 1.1.1 1.1.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.2.5 13 13 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3 2.4.4 2.4.5 2.4.6 2.4.7 2.4.8 2.4.9 22 23 24 25 25 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 32 36 36 37 39 42 42 4.1.1 42 4.1.2 43 4.1.3 43 4.2 Biên 46 4.2.1 46 4.2.2 48 4.2.3 49 51 51 52 5.2.1 5.2.2 5.3.1 5.3.2 5.3.3 inh 52 53 54 54 55 57 58 60 B 16 17 18 19 20 22 23 24 25 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 32 43 43 48 49 CHUNG có n lý , , h : u nông , nông dân ng 0,47 , Do thôn nông thôn cao su, mía khoai mì cao su, mía khoai mì ch H ang Tây Ninh M 2.1 n tín Tây t 2.2 cao su, khoai mì m - a bàn - - 4.1 10 xã, 4.2 58 7/2010/QH12) 10 11 12 haese, 2009 59 13 , NXB Giao thông 14 h, 15 (2004) 16 WTO 17 18 Francis Nathan Okurut, 2006, Acces to credit by the poor in South Africa: Evidence from Household survey data 1995 and 2000 19 Agricultural credit in Pakistan: Constraints 20 Diagne, A, 1999 Determinants of househol access to and participation in formol and informal credit markets on Malawi, Food consumption and Nutrition Division 21 Khandker, 2003 22 Bertola, G Disney, R & Grant, C (2006) The Economics of Consumer Credit Demand and Supply The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England 23 Demand Study of Farm Households in Longren/Guizhou of PRC ADB Technical mber: 35412, Sep 2005 60 1.1 probit y_covaykhong gioitinh dtkinh trinhdo solaodong thunhap cachhuyen dt_dat quenbietxh Iteration 0: log likelihood = -132.98105 Iteration 1: log likelihood = -65.919845 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -63.723454 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -63.677865 Iteration 4: log likelihood = -63.677839 Iteration 5: log likelihood = -63.677839 Probit regression Number of obs 250 LR chi2(8) = 138.61 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Pseudo R2 Log likelihood = -63.677839 = = 0.5212 -y_covaykhong | Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -gioitinh | 1.311369 2675976 4.90 0.000 7868872 1.83585 dtkinh | 1.298445 2732423 4.75 0.000 7629004 1.83399 trinhdo | 0600646 0353621 1.70 0.089 -.0092439 1293731 solaodong | 3686585 1636986 2.25 0.024 0478152 6895018 thunhap | -.0021748 0012772 -1.70 0.089 -.004678 0003284 cachhuyen | -.0097752 0202024 -0.48 0.628 -.0493713 0298208 dt_dat | 0296832 0287413 1.03 0.302 -.0266487 086015 quenbietxh | 7620987 2682661 2.84 0.004 2363069 1.287891 _cons | -2.306222 641467 -3.60 0.000 -3.563474 -1.04897 61 1.2 Ki lfit Probit model for y_covaykhong, goodness-of-fit test number of observations = 250 number of covariate patterns = 249 Pearson chi2(240) = Prob > chi2 = Ki 244.97 0.3990 nh s phù h p c a mơ hình lstat Probit model for y_covaykhong True -Classified | D ~D | Total -+ + + | 188 18 | 206 - | 38 | 44 -+ + Total | 194 56 | 250 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= True D defined as y_covaykhong != -Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 96.91% Specificity Pr( -|~D) 67.86% Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 91.26% Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) 86.36% -False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 32.14% False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 3.09% False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 8.74% False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) 13.64% -Correctly classified 90.40% 62 K T QU CH Y HÀM DPROBIT dprobit y_covaykhong gioitinh dtkinh trinhdo solaodong thunhap cachhuyen dt_dat quenbietxh Iteration 0: log likelihood = -132.98105 Iteration 1: log likelihood = -70.935938 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -64.380602 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -63.695649 Iteration 4: log likelihood = -63.677863 Iteration 5: log likelihood = -63.677839 Probit regression, reporting marginal effects Number of obs = 250 LR chi2(8) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Pseudo R2 Log likelihood = -63.677839 = 138.61 = 0.5212 -y_cova~g | dF/dx Std Err z P>|z| x-bar [ 95% C.I ] -+ -gioitinh*| 2950688 0671054 4.90 0.000 628 163545 426593 dtkinh*| 332712 0877987 4.75 0.000 744 16063 504794 trinhdo | 0110355 0064997 1.70 0.089 8.76 -.001704 023775 solaod~g | 0677327 0336362 2.25 0.024 2.888 001807 133658 thunhap | -.0003996 0002385 -1.70 0.089 118.02 -.000867 000068 cachhu~n | -.001796 0036966 -0.48 0.628 13.236 -.009041 005449 dt_dat | 0054536 0051301 1.03 0.302 3.77508 -.004601 015508 quenb~xh*| 152686 0565548 2.84 0.004 584 041841 263531 -+ -obs P | 776 pred P | 8934858 (at x-bar) -(*) dF/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from to z and P>|z| correspond to the test of the underlying coefficient being Ki lfit Probit model for y_covaykhong, goodness-of-fit test number of observations = 250 number of covariate patterns = 249 Pearson chi2(240) = 244.97 Prob > chi2 = 0.3990 63 Ki nh s phù h p c a mơ hình lstat Probit model for y_covaykhong True -Classified | D ~D | Total -+ + + | 188 18 | 206 - | 38 | 44 -+ + Total | 194 56 | 250 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= True D defined as y_covaykhong != -Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 96.91% Specificity Pr( -|~D) 67.86% Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 91.26% Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) 86.36% -False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 32.14% False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 3.09% False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 8.74% False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) 13.64% -Correctly classified 90.40% 64 1.3 tobit lt_duocvay gioitinh trinhdo solaodong thunhap dt_dat quenbietxh Number of obs = 250 LR chi2(8) = 257.54 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Pseudo R2 = 0.0823 quenbiet_nh sanxuat, ll(0) ul(3500) Tobit regression Log likelihood = -1435.0895 -lt_duocvay | Coef Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -gioitinh | 83.43146 29.30019 2.85 0.005 25.7155 141.1474 trinhdo | -2.847538 3.450176 -0.83 0.410 -9.643746 3.94867 solaodong | 15.9344 20.15628 0.79 0.430 -23.76975 55.63854 thunhap | 0491894 1268265 0.39 0.698 -.2006353 2990141 dt_dat | 19.78574 1.287912 15.36 0.000 17.24879 22.32269 quenbietxh | -16.6698 30.97275 -0.54 0.591 -77.68039 44.34078 quenbiet_nh | 105.58 33.52601 3.15 0.002 39.54001 171.6201 sanxuat | 254.7698 51.95341 4.90 0.000 152.4312 357.1084 _cons | -286.2641 77.22168 -3.71 0.000 -438.3765 -134.1516 -+ -/sigma | 193.1792 9.401907 174.6592 211.6992 -Obs summary: 36 213 left-censored observations at lt_duocvay=3500 A MƠ HÌNH corr gioitinh trinhdo solaodong thunhap dt_dat quenbietxh quenbiet_nh sanxuat (obs=250) | gioitinh trinhdo solaod~g thunhap dt_dat quenb~xh quen~_nh sanxuat -+ gioitinh | 1.0000 trinhdo | 0.0341 1.0000 solaodong | 0.2666 -0.0431 1.0000 thunhap | 0.0150 -0.0060 -0.0640 1.0000 dt_dat | 0.0874 -0.0757 0.0861 0.0297 1.0000 quenbietxh | 0.2739 0.1152 0.2356 0.1484 0.1189 1.0000 quenbiet_nh | 0.2210 -0.1085 0.1684 0.0327 0.2255 0.4006 1.0000 sanxuat | 0.4068 0.0897 0.2945 -0.0358 0.0982 0.2936 0.1677 1.0000 65 2014 A TT - - không a b c - - 66 TT Khơng B THƠN TT TT g 67 C TT Không vay N - 68 nuôi: - TT nhân dân Sai vay 10 Sai Sai 69 thân Tình hình vay ghi Kinh doanh Tiêu dùng thông tin 70 D a TT 10 b TT 71 E TT TT TT Cây Cao su 72 TT 100% CÁM ƠNG (BÀ) VÀ KÍNH CHÚC ƠNG, BÀ S C KH ... nơng , nông dân ng 0,47 , Do thôn 2 nơng thơn cao su, mía khoai mì cao su, mía khoai mì ch H ang Tây Ninh M 2.1 n tín Tây t 2.2 cao su, khoai mì m - a bàn - - 4.1 10 xã, 4.2 4 : n nh Tây Ninh. .. Phía Nam giá Tây Ninh CamPuChia 14 an ninh 2.1.3 có 12 : - 2.1.4 27o o C vào o - - C vào tháng 15 2.1.5 o Nam Cao 30m - ; - ; ng ; - ; - ; 2.1.6 16 Nông Trong 2005 Khu c 2.2 , Tây Ninh 2.2.1... 2014 nông 36 : 3.1 Qua nghiên quan B ng Trong d ng mơ hình Probit mơ hình Logi tài mơ hình kinh t l nh ng ãs ng ph ng pháp phân tích h i qui b ng ng thơng qua mơ hình Probit Tobit n vi c t p n tín