M 2011 gian quý báu, 04 tháng Tôi 04 tháng i ii iii iv 1.1 1.2 1.3 C 1.4 1.5 1.6 T 2.1 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.2 Xu 2.3 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 2.3.4 10 2.4 10 2.4.1 Mơ hình Ricardo 10 2.4.2 Mơ hình hai khu 2.4.3 Mơ hình Todaro 11 11 2.4.4 Mơ hình Park S.S 12 2.5 13 2.6 14 2.7 15 2.7.1 2.7.2 2.7.3 2.8 15 Bài 16 16 17 2.8.1 17 2.8.2 Khung phân tích 18 20 3.1 20 3.1.1 20 3.1.2 21 3.2 26 3.2.1 26 3.2.2 26 3.2.3 28 3.2.4 30 3.3 31 GIANG 34 4.1 34 4.2 36 4.2.1 36 4.2.2 37 4.2.3 37 4.2.4 38 4.3 39 4.3.1 39 4.3.2 41 4.3.3 41 4.3.4 42 4.3.5 43 4.3.6 44 47 5.1 47 5.1.1 47 5.1.2 48 5.2 50 5.2.1 50 5.2.2 51 5.2.3 52 5.2.4 53 5.3 54 56 58 P 1: 58 59 60 61 61 61 .3 Phân tích p 61 62 62 Waston 63 64 -i- Giang (VHLSS) hành nông t - Giang - ii - Hình 2.1 13 Hình 2.3 Khung ph 18 -2009 24 25 -2009 30 -2009 30 35 - 54 - góp 5.3 - 55 - - 56 - [1] http://www.gso.gov.vn/ [2] [3] [4] Minh [5] [6] [7] [8] - 57 - [9] (2007) nơng thơn, chí [10] (2010) , An Giang [11] (2006), h An , An Giang [12] 2011, An Giang [13] http://vovnews.vn/home/co-gioi-hoa-nong-nghiep-nhu-cau-buc-xuc-oDBSCL/200812/100843.vov [14] http://angiang.gov.vn/ - 58 - Thái Lan Indonexia Malaixia 9,45 8,92 26,21 5,7 23.504 15.449 41.814 1.478 4.021 5.367 6.269 38.564 75% 64% 10% USD) (nghìn (USD) - 59 - 2: STT GDP An Giang 15.670 Long An 11.347 12.450 8.916 12.709 7.011 Trà Vinh 7.332 15.029 5.599 10 Kiên Giang 11 12 13 16.764 10.451 Liêu Cà Mau 7.805 13.021 - 60 - STT DT lúa (nghìn ha) An Giang 557,29 3.421,5 Long An 463,59 2.158,5 246,43 1.308,0 81,05 362,7 450,88 2.650,4 176,68 911,4 231,85 1.076,9 208,79 1.138,1 191,20 993,8 622,18 3.397,7 11 334,63 1.780,4 12 166,47 820,4 139,02 503,4 10 13 Trà Vinh Kiên Giang Cà Mau - 61 - Correlations NSLD NSLD DT LD QMV CGH Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N 103 872** 000 103 -.050 615 103 114 252 103 137 167 103 DT 872** 000 103 103 134 179 103 -.064 519 103 101 308 103 LD -.050 615 103 134 179 103 103 031 754 103 076 444 103 QMV 114 252 103 -.064 519 103 031 754 103 103 355** 000 103 CGH 137 167 103 101 308 103 076 444 103 355** 000 103 103 ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed) b Model Sum mary Model R 975 a R S quare 950 Adjusted R S quare 948 Std Error of the Estimat e 27305 Durbin-W atson 1.955 a Predictors: (Constant), LNCGH, LNLD, LNDT, LNQMV b Dependent Variable: LNNS LD b ANOVA Model Regression Res idual Total Sum of Squares 138 536 7.307 145 842 df 98 102 Mean Square 34.634 075 a Predictors: (Constant), LNCGH, LNLD, LNDT, LNQMV b Dependent Variable: LNNS LD F 464 534 Sig .000 a - 62 - a Coe fficients Model (Constant) LNDT LNLD LNQMV LNCGH Uns tandardized Coefficients B Std Error 1.690 120 909 026 -.935 076 705 029 -4.39E-02 040 Standardized Coefficients Beta 829 -.286 598 -.028 t 14.061 35.237 -12 356 24.231 -1.104 Sig .000 000 000 000 272 a Dependent Variable: LNNSLD b ANOVA Model Regression Res idual Total Sum of Squares 379 3.767 4.146 df 98 102 Mean Square 095 038 a Predictors: (Constant), LNCGH, LNLD, LNDT, LNQMV b Dependent Variable: ABS_RES1 F 2.466 Sig .050 a - 63 - - Waston - 64 - tính tốn STT (ha) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21.59 1.20 3.0 21.87 48 30.79 1.30 2.0 19.39 47 44 40 4.0 1.30 00 6.99 40 3.0 18.31 88 15.45 1.00 4.0 28.22 85 14.45 80 3.0 34.83 1.78 18.57 70 2.0 24.89 82 11.93 10 2.0 27.22 00 19.93 73 3.0 47.95 99 29.02 2.20 5.0 45.67 97 7.42 30 2.0 25.11 8.39 12.05 80 4.0 30.79 52 1.66 03 2.0 65.52 00 74.92 9.00 5.0 24.79 7.23 38.05 3.30 4.0 26.36 6.91 41 40 3.0 33 00 70.43 3.00 3.0 44.97 4.34 17.65 1.20 5.0 48.57 6.70 16.39 45 2.0 32.92 6.60 16.14 80 4.0 42.92 7.30 - 65 - STT (ha) 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 15.13 80 4.0 41.31 6.57 4.10 20 2.0 22.52 2.82 14.22 1.00 3.0 22.17 1.06 17.95 1.00 3.0 28.11 1.94 13.38 52 2.0 28.03 3.82 10.95 84 4.0 28.26 3.87 53.72 4.15 4.0 28.64 3.87 26.08 46 2.0 51.15 4.31 14.86 87 3.0 28.69 3.24 16.57 91 3.0 29.43 5.61 17.05 52 2.0 35.41 6.13 2.72 32 7.0 30.02 3.46 26.51 1.20 3.0 30.27 3.69 3.64 26 4.0 23.20 3.15 79.54 8.00 5.0 21.80 5.90 33.39 1.00 2.0 40.79 7.59 30.80 1.10 2.0 33.92 4.45 17.61 1.68 5.0 23.94 7.74 5.08 26 3.0 23.87 3.79 5.99 54 4.0 31.29 5.34 45.81 3.10 4.0 30.58 3.88 40.49 2.08 3.0 32.16 3.08 - 66 - STT (ha) 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 184.58 6.60 2.0 32.28 4.10 83.66 4.95 4.0 28.92 2.55 69.24 3.20 2.0 19.73 3.07 2.57 30 3.0 9.92 1.05 45.39 1.95 2.0 31.01 3.75 11.75 1.40 4.0 20.99 2.51 57.12 2.40 2.0 25.72 2.64 9.00 1.00 5.0 21.95 3.82 20.96 60 2.0 30.71 3.54 2.80 20 3.0 18.77 4.05 21.80 1.68 4.0 17.71 1.26 39.67 2.60 3.0 27.33 2.17 217.63 14.58 4.0 31.94 2.61 18.19 1.50 5.0 26.49 2.41 2.77 10 4.0 28.20 00 6.53 20 2.0 29.83 2.91 12.21 15 2.0 57.36 00 49.22 2.00 2.0 22.14 2.95 15.97 1.00 3.0 20.78 3.04 38.05 90 4.0 86.53 4.09 4.16 10 2.0 17.88 00 9.51 1.48 6.0 13.91 1.62 - 67 - STT (ha) 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 2.28 10 3.0 30.61 3.56 4.58 25 4.0 30.38 3.43 10.56 20 2.0 21.08 53 9.09 1.05 3.0 8.52 00 10.76 50 3.0 28.37 2.60 12.94 1.60 5.0 18.78 2.05 2.75 39 8.0 22.22 2.38 11.08 25 2.0 40.26 12.15 15.52 1.16 6.0 40.42 7.28 4.22 13 2.0 29.03 4.92 14.77 1.35 2.0 13.05 49 52.30 2.10 2.0 23.77 2.03 23.18 1.40 3.0 22.40 5.03 2.72 30 5.0 21.51 2.76 21.89 1.30 3.0 24.86 4.03 83 10 7.0 38.71 3.30 37.38 1.44 3.0 34.63 6.51 3.63 83 2.0 3.99 54 1.02 4.50 4.0 07 00 28.07 72 2.0 42.87 7.75 66 70 2.0 13 00 18.36 1.00 3.0 22.34 2.64 - 68 - STT (ha) 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 7.79 46 3.0 19.82 87 28.34 1.20 3.0 23.22 2.21 33.73 1.80 3.0 37.32 3.24 40.54 2.00 3.0 27.54 2.15 22.11 1.10 4.0 40.58 4.78 98.21 4.20 5.0 17.87 3.57 23.98 1.20 3.0 23.76 4.87 23.43 1.30 3.0 22.55 3.77 22.99 1.10 2.0 21.65 3.25 12.89 80 5.0 40.78 2.43 19.76 1.00 3.0 38.45 3.24 40.56 3.20 2.0 19.59 3.54 20.39 1.20 4.0 25.47 3.28 24.65 1.30 3.0 26.98 3.18 50.12 4.30 2.0 23.64 2.16 15.33 1.20 5.0 34.88 4.21 20.34 1.30 5.0 24.75 3.22 ... 125 135 145 -2009 - 31 - 1995- -C lý công tác - n -2009 3.3 [12] An Giang : - nông thôn - 32 - - - - - 33 - An Giang - 34 - GIANG 4.1 u Trong (ha) Lúa 86,4% 148,8 94,5% 4,9% 1,1 0,7% 8,7% 7,5... USD a Pháp , 256 USD.[3] An Giang P -2- 1.2 1.3 - - -3- 1.4 : : - cho nông dân 1.5 : : : -4- VHLSS 2008 1.6 - -5- - - - - -6- 2.1 2.1.1 : [4] - T - - - 2.1.2 a) Theo Randy Barker (2002)[4]... .3 Phân tích p 61 62 62 Waston 63 64 -i- Giang (VHLSS) hành nông t - Giang - ii - Hình 2.1 13 Hình 2.3 Khung ph 18 -2009 24 25 -2009