CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World Judy L. Baker, editor Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 68358 CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World Judy L. Baker, Editor © 2012  e International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /  e World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 15 14 13 12  is volume is a product of the sta of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /  e World Bank.  e  ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily re ect the views of the Executive Directors of  e World Bank or the governments they represent.  e World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.  e boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of  e World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions  e material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law.  e International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /  e World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www. copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the O ce of the Publisher,  e World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN: 978-0-8213-8845-7 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8960-7 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8845-7 Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc. Cover photo: iStockphoto.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested ■ v Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii Overview 1 Recommended Actions to Build Resilience of the Urban Poor 2 Chapter 1. Vulnerable Cities: Assessing Climate Change and Disaster Risk in Urban Centers of the Developing World 7 Introduction and Objective of the Study 7 Background, Analytical Framework, and Approach 9 Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Urban Areas: Assessing Hazard Risk 12 Efforts to Estimate Exposure in Cities 22 Notes 23 References 23 Chapter 2. Vulnerability of the Urban Poor 27 Exposure: Location and Settlement Patterns of the Urban Poor 28 Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Delivery of Basic Services for the Urban Poor 38 Other Key Issues Affecting the Vulnerability of the Urban Poor 51 Contents vi ■ CONTENTS Notes 58 References 59 Chapter 3. Building Resilience for the Urban Poor 63 Assessing Risk at the City and Community Levels to Inform Decision Making and Action Planning 64 Integrating Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Policies for the Poor into Urban Planning and Management 70 Balancing Policy Tradeoffs among Risk Reduction, Urban Development, and Poverty Reduction in Decision Making 76 Strengthening Institutional Capacity to Deliver Basic Services and Reduce Vulnerability to Climate and Disaster Risk 86 Bridging Communities and Local Governments to Work Together on Local Solutions 89 Notes 94 References 94 Chapter 4. Opening New Finance Opportunities for Cities to Address Pro-poor Adaptation and Risk Reduction 99 Costing Adaptation and Risk Reduction 100 Sources of Financing for Adaptation and Risk Reduction 103 Bringing It All Together 121 Notes 122 References 122 Annex 1: Literature Review 125 Linking Climate Change and DRR 128 Climate Change, DRR, and Urban Poverty 128 Service Delivery and the Urban Poor 129 Housing 131 Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation 132 Finance 134 Gaps in Existing Literature 134 References 135 CONTENTS ■ vii Annex 2: Efforts to Estimate Exposure in Cities 141 OECD Study on Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes 141 Munich Re’s Study on Megacities—Megacities Megarisks 143 GFDRR—Economics of Disaster Risk Reduction 144 Mega-Stress for Mega-Cities: A Climate Vulnerability Ranking of Major Coastal Cities in Asia 144 Earthquake Disaster Risk Index 145 Multi-Hazard City Risk Index (MHCRI) 145 Note 146 References 146 Annex 3: Learning from Project and Program Experiences: Individuals, Community, and Local Government Partnering to Manage Risk 149 Introduction 149 Educate—Good Practices in Knowledge Sharing and Training 151 Identify—Good Practices in Risk Identifi cation 155 Prepare—Good Practices in Risk Reduction through Early-Warning Systems 158 Mitigate—Good Practices in Risk Reduction through Mitigation 160 Flood Management and Urban Planning 160 Water Supply and Sanitation 163 Wastewater Management and Energy 164 Water Supply and Energy Effi ciency 165 Neighborhood Upgrading 166 Job Creation 167 Transfer—Recent Practices in Risk Defl ection 168 Recover—Good Practices in Building-Back-Better 170 Lessons Learned and Recommendations 173 Notes 177 References 177 Annex 4: Dar es Salaam Case Study 181 Overview and Key Findings 181 Case Study Summary 186 Reference 197 viii ■ CONTENTS Annex 5: Jakarta Case Study 199 Overview and Key Findings 199 Case Study Summary 204 Notes 215 Reference 215 Annex 6: Mexico City Case Study 217 Overview and Key Findings 217 Case Study Summary 220 Notes 233 Reference 233 Annex 7: São Paulo Case Study 235 Overview and Key Findings 235 Case Study Summary 239 Notes 267 Reference 267 Color Section 269 Index 277 Boxes 1.1 Increase in the Number of Heat Waves in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) 21 2.1 Locating Vulnerable Households in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) 31 2.2 Jardim Ana Maria: A Slum Pocket in São Paulo 33 2.3 São Paulo’s Geotechnical Hazard Areas and Declivity Hazard Areas 35 2.4 Pattern between Flood-Prone Areas and Where the Poor Live in Jakarta 36 2.5 Exposure in Slums of South Asia and Latin America 37 2.6 Water Supply in Dar es Salaam 43 2.7 Water Scarcity in Mexico City 45 2.8 Incidents of Dengue in Jakarta 50 2.9 Settlements and Environmentally Sensitive Lands 52 3.1 Urban Risk Assessment 66 3.2 Lessons Learned from Carrying out City-level Risk Assessments under the Mayor’s Task Force 67 [...]... 2 ■ CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR The study is organized in four chapters covering (1) a broad look at climate change and disaster risk in cities of the developing world, with particular implications for the urban poor; (2) analysis of the vulnerability of the urban poor; (3) discussion of recommended approaches for building resilience for the urban poor; and (4) review of the financing... practitioners in the fields of climate change, disaster- risk management, and urban development The work is part of a broader program under the Mayor’s Task Force on Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Poor This task force was launched at the Mayor’s Summit in Copenhagen in 2009 with the aim to better understand these issues, identify examples of good practices, and propose policy and investment... Service Provision for the Urban Poor); Soumya Dharmavaram (Courting Hazards: Where the Urban Poor Live); Ari Huhtala, Daniel Hoornweg, and Marcus Lee (Climate Finance for Cities); Kristina Katich (Beyond Assessment: A Review of Global Best Practices Addressing Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management for the Urban Poor, and The Impacts of Climate Change and Disasters on Urban Services); and David Satterthwaite... services and other needs associated with climate and disaster risk Several key findings emerge from the study and provide guidance for addressing risk: • The urban poor are on the front line The poor are particularly vulnerable to climate change and natural hazards because of where they live within cities, and the lack of reliable basic services there • City governments are the drivers for addressing risks... mayors and other city managers, national governments, donors, and practitioners in the fields of climate change, disaster risk management, and urban development It is organized into four main chapters Chapter 1 introduces the study and presents an overview of risk in cities of the developing world and the implications of those risks for the urban poor Chapter 2 analyzes the vulnerability of the urban. .. through the process of assessing risk, it is imperative to get multiple agencies and community residents involved to exchange ideas, collaborate, and communicate with the aim of establishing effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction plans Integrating policies for climate change and disaster risk reduction for the poor into urban planning and management Policies to address climate risks and natural... gather new empirical evidence on the risks of climate change and disasters for the urban poor, particularly with regard to 12 ■ CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR the delivery of basic services Key findings from those studies are integrated throughout this report, and case study summaries for each city are included in annexes 5–7.2 The case studies follow a methodology for assessing urban. .. (IPCC) Assessment Reports; the World Bank’s 2010 World Development Report on Climate Change; the World Bank and UN study, Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, 2010; the World Watch Institute’s State of the World Report, Our Urban Future (2007); the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (ISDR 2009); and the World Disasters Report: Focus on Urban Risk (IFPC 2010) These studies, reviewed in... of climate change and natural hazards is on the rise in cities • The urban poor disproportionately bear the brunt of changing weather patterns and natural hazards • The scope and intensity of disaster risks vary considerably across cities, with differential impacts on the urban poor • The increased exposure of the urban poor to extensive risks can transform frequent everyday hazards into disasters Introduction... disability, and loss of life This study analyzes the key challenges facing the urban poor, given the risks associated with climate change and disasters, particularly with regard to the delivery of basic services, and identifies strategies and financing opportunities for addressing these risks The main audience for this study includes mayors and other city managers, national governments, donors, and practitioners . Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 68358 CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR Cities Building Resilience for a Changing. Location and Settlement Patterns of the Urban Poor 28 Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Delivery of Basic Services for the Urban Poor 38 Other Key Issues Affecting the Vulnerability of the Urban. Global Best Practices Addressing Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management for the Urban Poor, and  e Impacts of Climate Change and Disasters on Urban Services); and David Satterthwaite (How