P.HCM - V T C TH TH KI CH S C GI TR TH NGHI NI Y T DOANH TR S HOSE - V T TH TH KI CH S C C GI TR TH NGHI NI DOANH Y :T T TR S HOSE - : 60340201 : PGS H NG TRANG .3 1.1 1.1.2 .4 1.1.3.1 DPS, DIV) 1.1.3.2T l chi tr c t c (Dividend payout ratio): 1.1.3.3 ) 1.2.1 Lý thuy t sách c t c khơng n giá tr ch ng khoán ( Irrelevant Theory) ng phái trung dung .10 1.2.2 The bird-in-the-hand) Gordon 10 1.2.2.3 11 Clientele Effect Theory) .13 .15 Agency Costs Theory) 17 18 - 19 20 21 23 2.1 mơ hình 23 2.1.1 23 25 2.2 2.3 - 26 29 29 32 32 32 33 35 35 37 39 42 42 44 45 3.3 46 48 DANH M C T TNCN: Thu nh MM: Miller, M.H& Modigliani DPS, DIV: C t c chi tr cho m t c ph n NYSE: S Giao d ch ch KSE: S Giao d ch ch EPS: Thu nh c i c ph n SIZE P_VOL: Bi n D_YIELD: T su t c t c PAYOUT: T l chi tr c t c E_VOL : Bi ng thu nh p doanh nghi p DEBT: T l n doanh nghi p GROWTH: T l ng doanh nghi p VI T T T 30 30 .31 quy theo Fixed Effect 32 quy theo Random Effect 33 pháp FE RE 34 .35 B .36 .37 39 .42 43 .44 .45 - gian t t ba quy nh quan tr ng c nghi p: quy nh c t c C quy nm doanh nghi p quy m c l i nhu c t n nh , quy nh m th c hi n d ng v n l i d ng v n n quy ch p nh t c ns nghi ng c ph i nhu n gi l ng c c, n c a doanh r ng d ng v n Khi l nc ac t uc ac i doanh nghi nh l a ch tr c quy t l a ch ys yh nc p doanh nghi d ng m l t u ti t gi a l i nhu n i nhu n gi l i cho v c nhu c u c a v n c a Doanh nghi p, v thu nc t n s l a ch t nh c a m t doanh nghi p? c nh i quy quy t cc th tr l i m p ph hi u v doanh nghi y, vi tr doanh nghi t n thi ng qua l i gi ng c t n c a doanh nghi doanh nghi p nh ys n c a doanh nghi p s T c t c th ng c a ng c HOSE d ng ch ng u M u D tv t th c nghi m v gi i b ng ch ng c t cc nh h Doanh nghi my t tr - u m i quan h gi - um th : - t ng c xu th ng t t pv tri n c a doanh nghi p u H i quy s li u d ng b ng Data Panel, (OLS) nh m i Ph t h gi it t doanh nghi p u ng uv nghi p c t cc ng ch ng c c t nghi Doanh nghi p, nh c u ch nh nh tr c Ph u Th u: s li u chi tr c t c l y t n 2003-2012, c t c th c chi tr a lu - T ng k : tv t gi i oanh Prob(F-statistic) 0.015695 Bi cv is phi u M 10% R2 = 8,1046% cho th ng cl i i c a P_VOL M c gi h i quy bi n gi ch ng t t nhi u vi c s d ng bi s bi gi ng c nh ng k t qu hi ct y t su t c t i gi ch b n h ng thu nh c ng m nh nh Bi ns c chi u v i t su t c t c, u v i bi ng thu nh p ( E.vol) M i quan h ngh ch bi n gi p v i k t qu u c a Hashemijoo, Aref Mahdavi Ardekani, Nejat Younesi ( 2012) cho r ng t su t c t ng m nh m n bi i gi i Nobel kinh t u u c a Robert Shiller t ng u nh ng nhi ph n n r t t l gi c t m c ng gi m xu ng m c th p ( gi i Nobel Kinh t 2013) 3.3 K t qu s h i quy t P.volj = 1.127225-1.372238*D.yieldj-0.213444 *Payoutj + -0.041888 Sizej + 0.208948**Evolj+ 0.113299Debtj+ 0.047235 Growthj - Bi n t su t c t c D_YIELD l chi tr c t c PAYOUT v i bi c t c gi tr c t d ng v n c i m s bi The birth in hand m r i ro cho c ng vi c chi m gi ch gi bi - Bi m chi ng c phi u i bi ng s 46 ng im bi ng c a ng c gi c v phi u n c as v d nghi i nhu n doanh nghi p L i nhu n c a doanh tr c ti p quan tr ng nh t vi c quy c phi c phi u B hi n t i (present value) c a t t c l i t c c ph i t c c ph n ch n t l i nhu n doanh nghi doanh nghi p thay phi u s l , l i nhu n doanh nghi i nhu n ng HO i phi u s - Bi n t l n ( i bi l n c a doanh nghi i ro ki bi ng c ch - Bi c chi n bi n m t gi v m t th ph i th 47 o n n 4: K T LU N M c i quan h gi t c ti n m t ng c a doanh nghi p V i m ng i quy b ng v m i quan h Fixed effect cho k t qu ch bi n gi a c t c ti n m r uv c t c phi u K t qu t su t c t ns l chi tr c t quan v i s ng ch HOSE hi t ns doanh nghi ng c a c phi nh l doanh nghi n, m nh v tr th t s t c c a ban qu n nc ac t tl pm t doanh nghi p cho m i doanh nghi p M i , ho ng m ng c a ch c t cc t m kinh doanh c ngh pv mm doanh nghi ch thuy m t i v i m i doanh nghi m i chu k ch t doanh nghi p ng n h m i th i k xu t v t p tham kh o quy xu uv th c ti n gi i k t h p v i t qu th c nghi m t ng ti n m (1) M i cho c u t sau ng nh (2) cv c u t kho n ti n tr i t su t sinh l c (3) nh p gi l i) r t ng ch Khi quy n t l i tr phi h im t tr t t ti n c a t ng cho r ng: Ngu n v n n i sinh (thu iv phi u ph u t t t doanh nghi s d ng thu nh p gi l 48 s t t ph n m i t c cho c doanh nghi p Vi t Nam c - Th nh tr c n Nh ng ti n m th nb ph i ph n l n thu nh p c t u t c cao Nh n m t d th a song l ut t t nh ng h ng thu nh nm t phi ut n c ph v cv c u t s ti p ch nc ac d th c tr l i cho c tk l t c kh a doanh nghi n ph t t ph n c a v n l i nhu n gi n v n quan tr ng c v ng ti n m t - Th l m n, v nv t tr t t d ng l i nhu n gi l n i b , ch d ng v n th ng u ch t l chi tr c t c m ng th i v t xu t c t c - Th ba, chi tr c t c chi tr c t b n ch t ph v y ch n th c tr l hi ph n, c t c b ti n m t t ng ph c chi tr ic c t c b ng c n ch n nh t ph nh ng n c Nh c chi tr c t c b ng ti n m t ho c b ph c ph ti n m t v d ch th c n ph c hi n giao d ti n m t tr c ti p cho c k t qu v nghi uv ng c t u h n ch : m u s d ng, d li u thu th an l n ch doanh n ch nhi p ch chi tr c t 49 c hi n vi c chi tr c t B i theo Lu t Ch nh th quy ng d n t k ih ng c nh vi c tr c t c, Doanh nghi p ph i th c hi n chi tr cho u doanh nghi p ch m chi tr c t c ho c gia h n, Thi t b ph ty c ph n n tr c t n kh t h n c t c cho c Vi c gia h ch d li u g p nhi ,m c ti p c n d d li p r ts y t d li u t ng h p c li c ki m ch ng v n ch vi c ti p c n d li u chi tr c t c theo c ph t c ti n m t tc c th vi ng ch i c ph i di u ch t c chi tr c t i di cho um r d thu th p d li m r ng ng c t c theo t t Nam 50 U THAM KH O C c Nh m ( 2008) Nguy n B o Ng tr th ng t ng c a doanh nghi khoa h i h c kinh t TpHCM ng c t Nam u TP HCM Nguy n Duy L ng ch t cc t Nam Tr n Ng TP HCM p hi i t b n Th ng -343 Trang http://www.hsc.com.vn Trang http://www.cophieu68.vn/ Trang http://cafef.vn/ Trang http://www.vcsc.com.vn/ Trang http://www.vcbs.com.vn ph n Ch n Vi t) i t Nam) Aharony, J & Swary, I (1980) Quarterly dividend and earnings announcements and stockholders' returns: An empirical analysis The Journal of Finance, 35, 112 Baker, H K & Powell, G E (1999) How corporate managers view dividend policy Quarterly Journal of Business & Economics, 38, 17-35 Baskin, J (1989) Dividend policy and the volatility of common stocks Journal of Portfolio Management, 15, 19-25 Black, F & Scholes, M (1974) The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns Journal of Financial Economics, 1, 1-22 Born, J A & Rimbey, J N (1993) A test of the easterbrook hypothesis regarding dividend payments and agency costs Journal of Financial Research, 16, 251-260 Brennan, M J (1970) Taxes, market valuation and corporate financial policy National Tax Journal, 23, 417-427 Fama, E F & Jensen, M C (1983) Separation of ownership and control Journal of Law and Economics, 26, 301-325 Gordon, M J (1963) Optimal investment and financing policy The Journal of Finance, 18, 264-272 Hussainey, K., Mgbame, C O., & Chijoke-Mgbame, A M (2011) Dividend policy and share price volatility: UK evidence Journal of Risk Finance, The, 12(1), 57-68 10 Jensen, M C & Meckling, W H (1976) Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior,agency costs and ownership structure Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 305-360 11 Kwan, C C Y (1981) Efficient market tests of the informational content of dividend announcements: Critique and extension The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 16, 193-206 12 Levy, H & Sarnat, M (1994) Capital investment and financial decisions, New York, Prentice Hall 13 Lintner, J (1962) Dividends, earnings, leverage, stock prices and the supply of capital to corporations The Review of Economics and Statistics, 44, 243-269 14 Litzenberger, R H & Ramaswamy, K (1982) The effects of dividends on common stock prices tax effects or information effects? The Journal of Finance, 37,429-443 15 Merton, H M & Rock, K (1985) Dividend policy under asymmetric information The Journal of Finance, 40, 1031-1051 16 Miller, M.H& Modigliani, F (1961) Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares The Journal of Business, 34,411-433 17 Miller, M H & Scholes, M S (1978) Dividends and taxes Journal of Financial Economics, 6, 333-364 18 Miller, M H & Scholes, M S (1982) Dividends and taxes: Some empirical evidence Journal of Political Economy, 90, 1118-1141 19 Mohammad Hashemijoo et al, (2012) The Impact of Dividend Policy on Share Price Volatility in the Malaysian Stock Market Journal of Business Studies Quarterly 2012, Vol 4, No 1, pp 111-129 20 Nazir, M S., Nawaz, M M., Anwar, W., & Ahmed, F (2010) Determinants of stock price volatility in karachi stock exchange: The mediating role of corporate dividend policy International Research Journal of Finance and Economics(55) 21 Pettit, R R (1972) Dividend announcements, security performance, and capital market efficiency The Journal of Finance, 27, 993-1007 22 Roll, R (1986) The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers The Journal of Business, 59, 197-216 23 Ross, S A., Jaffe, J F & Westerfield, R (1999) Corporate finance, London, McGraw-Hill 24 Rozeff, M S (1982) How corporations set their dividend payout ratios Chase Financial Quarterly, pp 69-83, 25 Salih, ALAA,A (2010) The Effect of Dividend Policy on Market Value UK Empirical Study , Durham theses, Durham University Available at Durham ETheses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/556 26 Suleman, M., Asghar, M., Ali Shah, S., & Hamid, K (2011) Impact of Dividend Policy on Stock Price Risk: Empirical Evidence from Equity Market of Pakistan Ph l c 1: th l y logarit) 200 Series: R Sample 2003 2012 Observations 727 160 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std Dev Skewness Kurtosis 120 80 40 -0.797324 -0.645475 -0.004256 -4.270931 0.564151 -1.742391 7.731418 Jarque-Bera 1045.972 Probability 0.000000 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 120 Series: EPS Sample 2003 2012 Observations 727 100 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std Dev Skewness Kurtosis 60 40 20 10 11 12 8.121864 8.179760 12.37320 5.509388 0.737164 0.102969 5.470578 Jarque-Bera Probability 80 186.1776 0.000000 140 Series: Z Sample 2003 2012 Observations 727 120 100 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std Dev Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera Probability 80 60 40 20 10 12 14 16 18 20 13.62230 13.46317 19.84252 6.420840 1.347102 0.951339 6.803558 547.8925 0.000000 u d li u h i quy Ph l c STT STT 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 2011 2011 2010 2009 2007 2006 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2010 2009 2011 2010 2012 2009 2010 2009 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2010 2009 2012 AAM ABT ABT ABT ABT ABT ACL ACL ACL ACL ACL AGF AGF AGF AGF AGF AGF AGF AGF AGF AGR ALP ANV ANV ASP ASP ATA ATA BBC BBC BBC BBC BBC BBC BBC BBC BCI BCI BHS STT 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 2009 2007 2006 2012 2011 2010 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2006 2005 2004 2003 2007 2011 2010 2012 2011 2010 2009 2011 2010 2009 BHS BHS BHS BMC BMC BMC BMC BMC BMC BMI BMI BMI BMI BMI BMP BMP BMP BMP BMP BMP BMP BT6 BT6 BT6 BT6 BT6 BT6 BT6 BT6 BT6 BTP BTP BVH BVH BVH BVH CDC CDC CDC 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2010 2009 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2010 2010 2012 2011 2010 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2010 2009 2012 CII CII CII CII CII CLC CLC CLC CLC CLC CLC CNT CNT CNT COM COM COM COM COM COM CSM CTG D2D D2D D2D D2D DCL DCL DCT DCT DCT DHA DHA DHA DHA DHA DHC DHC DHG 40 41 2011 BHS 2010 BHS STT 81 82 2008 CDC 2007 CDC STT 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 2009 2008 2007 2006 2009 2008 2007 2006 2010 2009 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2010 2012 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2008 2007 2006 2012 DHG DHG DHG DHG DIC DIC DIC DIC DIG DIG DMC DMC DMC DMC DMC DMC DMC DPM DPM DPM DPM DPM DPR DPR DPR DPR DPR DPR DQC DQC DQC DRC DRC DRC DRC DRC DRC DTT DTT DTT DVP 122 123 2011 DHG 2010 DHG 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 2006 2005 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2007 2010 2008 2007 2006 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2010 2009 2012 2011 2010 2009 2011 2010 2009 2007 2008 2009 2011 2009 2012 2011 2010 2009 STT 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2008 2012 2011 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2006 2012 2011 2010 2012 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2010 2009 DVP DVP DXG DXG DXV DXV DXV EIB EIB FMC FMC FMC FMC FMC FMC FPT FPT FPT FPT FPT FPT GDT GDT GDT GIL GIL GIL GIL GIL GIL GIL GIL GMC GMC GMC GMC GMC GMC GMC GMD GMD GMD GMD GTA GTA GTA GTA GTA GTA HAG HAG HAI HAI HAI HAI HAS HAS HAS HAS HAX HAX HAX HBC HBC HBC HBC HCM HCM HCM HCM HDC HDC HDC HDC HDC HLA HLG HLG HMC HMC HMC HMC 165 2011 DVP STT 207 2007 GMD STT 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 2007 2006 2012 2010 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2012 2011 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2009 2008 2007 2011 2010 2009 2007 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 HMC HMC HPG HPG HPG HPG HPG HRC HRC HRC HRC HRC HRC HSG HSG HSI HSI HSI HSI HSI HT1 HT1 HT1 HTV HTV HTV HTV HVG HVG HVG ICF ICF ICF ICF ICF IMP IMP IMP IMP IMP IMP IMP 249 2008 HMC 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 2008 2010 2009 2008 2010 2009 2012 2011 2010 2009 2011 2010 2009 2008 2009 2012 2011 2010 2009 2007 2005 2006 2009 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2010 2009 2008 STT 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 2006 2010 2009 2010 2009 2007 2006 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2010 2009 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2011 2010 2009 ITA ITC ITC KDC KDC KDC KDC KHA KHA KHA 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