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B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH TR CÁC Y U T N THU HÚT DỊNG V N C TI C NGỒI: NG H P M T S QU TRI N LU C S KINH T TP H Chí Minh - B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH TR CÁC Y U T DÒNG V N NG H P M T S TRI N N VI C THU HÚT C TI C NGOÀI: QU Chuyên ngành Mã s LU : Tài Ngân hàng : 60340201 C S KINH T ng d n khoa h c: PGS TS NGUY N NG C HÙNG TP H Chí Minh - L ng lu ut ng h p m t s qu nghiên c u c a riêng i s c ti c n ng d n khoa h c c a PGS TS Nguy n Ng c Hùng Các thông tin, d li u s d ng lu d c, n i dung trích u có ghi ngu n g c k t qu trình bày lu c công b t i b t k công trình nghiên c u khác 20 H c viên Tr M cL c Trang ph bìa L M c l c Danh m c ch vi t t t Danh m c b ng bi u Danh m c hình v U - 1.1 Lý ch tài - - 1.2 M c tiêu nghiên c u - ng nghiên c u ph m vi nghiên c u - u - c ti n c 1.6 B c c c a lu K t Lu tài - - - - NG QUAN V NGHIÊN C C TI C NGOÀI VÀ M T S - - 2.1 T ng quan v c ti c - - 2.1.1 Khái ni c ti c - - 2.1.2 Phân lo c ti 2.1.3 Vai trị c c ngồi - - c ti c - - 2.2 T ng quan lý thuy t v y u t 2.2.1 Các nhóm bi 2.2.2 M t s nghiên c K t Lu ng t ng t c ti c ti c - 11 - c - 11 - - 13 - - 32 U VÀ K T QU NGHIÊN C U - 33 - 3.1 T ng quan v c ti c qu c gia nghiên c u - 33 - 3.2 Mơ hình nghiên c u - 42 3.2.1 Các bi n nghiên c u mơ hình - 42 h t ng - 42 3.2.1.2 N c - 42 k thu t - 43 - 3.2.1.4 L m phát - 43 3.2.1.5 Kích c th ng - 44 - m c a n n kinh t - 44 u v n ròng c a n n kinh t - 45 3.2.1.8 T giá - 45 3.2.2 Mơ hình nghiên c u - 46 3.3 K t qu nghiên c u - 47 3.3.1 Ki nh unit root test - 47 - 3.3.2 K t qu nghiên c u - 48 K t lu - 56 T LU N VÀ KI N NGH - 57 - 4.1 K t lu n - 57 4.2 Ki n ngh - 59 4.2.1 V th ng tiêu th - 59 - 4.2.2 V m c a n n kinh t - 59 - 4.2.3 V - 60 - Tài li u tham kh o Tài li u tham kh o ti ng Vi t Tài li u tham kh o ti ng Anh Ph l c Ph l c K t qu ki Ph l c Ma tr n h s Ph l c Mô t d li u nh nghi a bi n Danh M c Ch Vi t T t IMF: T ch c ti n t th gi i OECD: T ch c h p tác phát tri n kinh t WTO: T ch FDI i th gi i c ti c US: M GDP: T ng s n ph m qu c n i UNCTAD: i phát tri n Liên hi p qu c R&D: Nghiên c u phát tri n EU: Liên minh Châu Âu VAT: Thu giá tr BRICS: T ch c g m qu c gia Trung Qu c, Brazil, n OLS i quy Ordinary Least Square SUR , Nga Nam Phi i quy Seemingly Unrelated Regression TSLS i quy Two Stage Least Square GMM i quy Generalized Methods of Moment FGLS i quy Feasible Generalized Least Square GCC: Bao g m qu c gia Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Quatar, United Arab Emirates Danh M c B ng Bi u B ng N i dung B ng 2.1 Các y u t B ng 2.2 Các nhóm bi B ng 3.1 ng t i v Ngu n v Trang c ti ng t c ti c c ti c c vào qu 11 13 34 n 1990-2013 B ng 3.2 Ngu n v c ti c vào qu c gia 35 Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia Vi t Nam B ng 3.3 T l ngu n v c ti c vào cu c gia 39 Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia Vi t Nam so v i ngu n v c ti nh nghi c c a th gi i B ng 3.4 Ki 47 B ng 3.6 K t qu h i qui theo Fixed Effects 49 B ng 3.7 K t quà h i quy theo Random Effects 52 B ng 3.8 Ki 53 B ng 3.9 K t qu ki B ng 3.10 K t qu ki B ng 3.11 K t qu h i quy nh Hausman nh t 54 i 54 54 Danh M c Hình V Hình N i Dung Hình 3.1 n 1990-2013 Hình 3.2 Hình 3.3 Trang c ti T tr 34 c vào qu c gia nghiên c u 38 c ti c vào qu c gia nghiên c u 41 -1- V u ki n t nhiên thu n l i, ngu n tài nguyên thiên nhiên d i dào, ngu n ng ln s n có v i s ng l thành m c tiêu c a nhi u cu c kh giành hi n t i nh r ng l n ng cu c tranh c nh ng ngu n tài nguyên d i th khu v c Bên c ng i n m v t giao thông bi n quan tr ng n i gi c Âu, Phi, ph n l n Châu Á v i n n kinh t l n th gi i Trung Qu c, Nh t B n, Hàn Qu c M xu t kh ng ng l n hàng hóa u thơ, lo i khốn s n nhu y u ph m quan tr ng cho qu V i nh nh u ph n v n t i bi n qu c t quan u ki n thu n l y, qu c t m quan tr ng c n d ng t u ki n vào công cu c phát tri n kinh t xã h i c a qu c gia mình, m c s ng c ng i dân không c nâng cao Trong kho l n kinh t c nhi u thành t su t c m t th i gian dài, h n ng v i t tc tt u ki n kinh t , xã h i, giáo d Nhi u qu i tình tr th gi i nhi cao ng c nhi u thành t ch ng vào t u n xu t lúa g o: Vi t Nam, Thái Lan, d u c Indonesia, café: Vi t Nam, cao su: Vi t Nam, Thái Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia, xu t kh u d u khí: Indonesia Bên c c nhi u thành t n xu t công nghi c bi t ngành công nghi p nh c nh ng thành t u này, qu n 128 Stevens, G., 1993 Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: a note International Finance Discussion Papers, April, No 444, Washington DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 129 Sun, Q Yu, Q., 2002 Determinants of foreign direct investment across China Journal of International Money and Finance, 21: 79-113 130 Swedenborg, B., 1979 The multinational operations of Swedish firms Industriens Utreningsinstitut, Stockholm 131 Swenson, D., 1994 The impact of US tax reform on foreign direct investment in the United States Journal of Public Economics, 54: 243-266 132 Tomiura, E., 2003 Firm level relationship between technological capability and foreign direct investment Available at < http://www.rieb.kobe- u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/dp138.pdf > [05 June 2014] 133 Torrisi, C., 1985 The determinants of direct foreign investment in a small LDC Journal of Economic Development, 10: 29 45 134 Trevino, L., Daniels, J Arbelaez, H., 2002 Market Reform and FDI in Latin 135 America : An Empirical Investigation Transnational Corporations, Vol 11 136 Tsai, P., 1994 Determinants of foreign direct investment and its inpact on economic growth Journal of Economic Development, 19: 137-163 137 Tsen, W., 2005 The determinants of foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry in Malaysia Journal of Economic Cooperation, 26: 91 110 138 Tuman, J Emmert, C., 1999 Explaining Japanese foreign direct investment in Latin America, 1979-1992 Social Science Quarterly, 80: 539-555 139 Umoh, O., Jacob, A Chuku, C., 2012 Foreign direct and economic growth in Nigeria: an analysis of the endogenous effects Current Research Journal of Economic Theory, 4: 53-66 140 UNCTAD, 2006 World investment report 2006, FDI from developing and transition economies: implications for development, United Nations, New York, NY and Geneva 141 Vijayakumar, N., Sridharan, P Rao, K., 2010 Determinants of FDI in BRICS countries: a panel analysis Journal of Business Science and Applied Management, 5: 1-13 142 Wei, S., 1999 Does corruption relieve foreign investors of the burden of taxes and capital controls Policy Research Working Paper 2209, World Bank, Washington, DC 143 Wheeler, D Mody, A., 1992 International investment location decisions: the case of US firms Journal of International Economics, 33:57-60 144 Wolff, G., 2007 Foreign direct investment in the enlarged EU: Do taxes matter and to what extent? Open Econ Rev, 18:327 145 346 Woodward, D Rolfe,R., 1993 The Location of Export Oriented Foreign direct 146 investment in the Caribbean Basin Journal of International Business Studies 24: 121-144 147 Yasmin, B., Hussain, A Chaudhary, M., 2003 Analysis of factor affecting foreign direct investment in developing countries Pakistan Economic and Social Review, XLI: 59-75 148 Yol, M Teng, N., 2009 Estimating the domestic determinants of foreign direct investment flows in Malaysia: evidence form cointergration and error correction model Jurnal Pengurusan, 28: 3-22 149 Yulin, N Reed, M., 1995 The locational determinants of the US direct foreign investment in food and kindred products In: The 1994 SAEA Annual Meeting, Nashville 150 WTO NEWS, 1996 PRESS RELEASES bPRESS/57 October 1996 Trade and foreign direct investment Available at: < http://www.wto.org/English/news_e/pres96_e/pr057_e.htm > [Accessed 02 March 2014] 151 Zhang, K., 2000 Why Is U.S Direct Investment in China So Small? Contemporary Economic Policy, 18: 82-94 Ph l c Ph l c K t qu ki nh unitroot test Fisher-type unit-root test for CAPFOR Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic p-value Inverse chi-squared(10) P 74.0210 0.0000 Inverse normal Z -6.9742 0.0000 Inverse logit t(29) L* -9.2716 0.0000 Modified inv chi-squared Pm 14.3155 0.0000 P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for FDI Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic p-value 12.7596 0.2374 Inverse chi-squared(10) P Inverse normal Z 0.1749 0.5694 Inverse logit t(29) L* 0.0603 0.5239 0.6171 0.2686 Modified inv chi-squared Pm P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for DFDI Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic Inverse chi-squared(10) P Inverse normal 131.6108 0.0000 27.1930 Modified inv chi-squared Pm 0.0000 -16.5211 L* 0.0000 -9.6473 Z Inverse logit t(29) p-value 0.0000 P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for ELEC Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic Inverse chi-squared(10) P p-value 20.9526 0.0214 Inverse normal Z -0.9789 0.1638 Inverse logit t(29) L* -1.1349 0.1329 2.4491 0.0072 Modified inv chi-squared Pm P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for TGAP Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic Inverse chi-squared(10) P p-value 13.8629 0.1793 Inverse normal Z -1.5445 0.0612 Inverse logit t(24) L* -1.5423 0.0680 0.8638 0.1939 Modified inv chi-squared Pm P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for DTGAP Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic Inverse chi-squared(10) P Inverse normal Z Inverse logit t(24) L* Modified inv chi-squared Pm p-value 125.5246 0.0000 -9.7133 0.0000 -17.6898 0.0000 25.8321 0.0000 P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for MSIZE Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic p-value Inverse chi-squared(10) P 0.0322 1.0000 Inverse normal Z 4.5092 1.0000 L* 5.3005 1.0000 Modified inv chi-squared Pm -2.2289 0.9871 Inverse logit t(19) P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for DMSIZE Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic p-value Inverse chi-squared(10) P 38.1562 0.0000 Inverse normal Z -4.1757 0.0000 L* -4.6717 0.0000 Modified inv chi-squared Pm 6.2959 0.0000 Inverse logit t(29) P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for INF Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic Inverse chi-squared(10) P 84.7492 p-value 0.0000 Inverse normal Z Inverse logit t(29) -7.1841 L* -10.6036 0.0000 16.7144 Modified inv chi-squared Pm 0.0000 0.0000 P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for TRADE Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic Inverse chi-squared(10) P 11.0202 p-value 0.3559 Inverse normal Z 0.3007 0.6182 Inverse logit t(29) L* 0.2639 0.6031 0.2281 0.4098 Modified inv chi-squared Pm P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for DTRADE Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic Inverse chi-squared(10) P Inverse normal Z Inverse logit t(29) L* Modified inv chi-squared Pm p-value 135.0911 0.0000 -9.9072 0.0000 -16.9572 0.0000 27.9712 0.0000 P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for EXRATE Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic p-value Inverse chi-squared(10) P 12.7334 0.2390 Inverse normal Z -0.6361 0.2624 L* -0.7425 0.2319 Modified inv chi-squared Pm 0.6112 0.2705 Inverse logit t(29) P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Fisher-type unit-root test for DEXRATE Based on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = Ha: At least one panel is stationary Number of periods = 22 AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T -> Infinity Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Drift term: Not included ADF regressions: lags Statistic p-value Inverse chi-squared(10) P 59.7269 0.0000 Inverse normal Z -6.1346 0.0000 L* -7.4891 0.0000 Modified inv chi-squared Pm 11.1193 0.0000 Inverse logit t(29) P statistic requires number of panels to be finite Other statistics are suitable for finite or infinite number of panels Ph l c Ma tr n h s a bi n Ph l c Mô t d li u ... n vi c thu hút v n v i bi n - 13 - B ng 2.2 Các nhóm bi ng t c ti Các nhóm bi n c ngồi Ví d 1/ Các bi n sách Chính sách thu i, u, sách kinh t 2/ Các bi n kinh doanh Chính sách khuy 3/ Các bi n... t ng có tác i n kho ng cách có tác ng âm t c Sahni (2012) nghiên c u v y u t nt pháp OLS v i bi d m , l m phát c ti c ng Gondor Nistor (2012) nghiên c u v c ngoài, tác gi c m , l m phát, d tr... i thu không nt , GDP, lãi su t cho vay, kho n cách, s bán hàng, thu su t lu , doanh nh, chênh l ch thu su t, tín d ng thu cho R&D, thu hàng hóa ho c thu giá tr , thu hàng hóa, thu xu t kh u, thu

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