B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH NGUY NG C A TH CH N NG KINH T T I CÁC QU C GIA KHU V C ASEAN LU N TP H Chí Minh 2014 B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH NGUY NG C A TH CH N NG KINH T T I CÁC QU C GIA KHU V C ASEAN LU PGS TP H Chí Minh L u khoa h tin, s li u lu lu c l p c a Các thông th K t qu nghiên c u c công b b t k cơng trình nghiên c u khác H c viên Nguy M CL C 3.2 - 11 14 15 - 28 28 38 41 44 46 - 49 49 51 53 53 53 - 59 DANH M C CH VI T T T AFDB: Ngân hàng phát tri n Châu Phi CCI: Ch s ki DPR: T l i ph thu c EIU: Economist Intelligence Unit Riskwire & Democracy Index FDI: c ti c ng c nh FRH: Freedom House GCS: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report GDP: GDP th i GEI: Ch s hi u qu Chính ph GFC: T ng ngu n v n c nh ng quát HER: Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom HHC: Chi tiêu th ic ah HUM: Cingranelli Richards Human Rights Database and Political Terror Scale PRS: Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide PSI: Ch s b t n tr khơng có b o l c RE ng ng u nhiên RLI: Ch s nh c a pháp lu t RQI: Ch s ch u ti t SCH: T l s h TEL: S ng n tho i c nh/100 dân i VAI: Ch s ti ng nói trách nhi m gi i trình WGI: The Worldwide Governance Indicators DANH M C CÁC B NG B ng 2.1 K v ng d u bi n gi i thích 38 B ng 2.2 Mơ t bi n gi i thích th ng kê 44 B ng 2.3 Ma tr a bi n 46 B ng 3.1 K t qu ng ng u nhiên (REM) 50 B ng 3.2 K t qu ng c nh (FEM) 52 B ng 3.3 K t qu ki nh Hausman 53 B ng 3.4 K t qu ki nh Breusch B ng 3.5 K t qu ng mơ hình FGLS 58 Pagan Lagrangian Multiplier 54 n nay, th gi nghi m v i Vi u nghiên c u th c ng Các nghiên c ng c a nhi u ngu n khác p tài khóa, l m phát, y u t vi n tr c ti c (FDI), y u t i, a lý hàng lo t y u t khác ng kinh t khuôn kh c a mơ hình tân c u nh ch ng th ch n thành m t khái ni m quan tr ng cu c tranh lu n qu c t v phát tri n sách Vi c nh n m nh y u t ch ng th ch thuy t v m i liên h gi a th ch t n n t ng d a lý ng, kh ng ho ng kinh t Acemoglu et al (2002), Rodrik et al (2002), Fukuyama (1995), Sen (1999), Johnson et al (2000) t thông tin b t cân x ng (asymmetric information) th ng tài c nh ng tác gi tiêu bi u s r t nhi u tác gi ng s ng l n xã h i (trust) s làm gi m chi phí qu ng t m c hi u qu c a ph , qua c kh ng ho ng kinh t Lòng tin y u t quan tr ng th ho ng ng tài chính, n u th c s có lịng tin th v di n r ng Acemoglu et al (2002) g i ý r ho c không nh ng s c có sách kinh t ng có th ch y u, khơng có ràng bu c quy n l v i tr gia, b o v quy n s h m i cao Các sách kinh t khơng nh t qn tri u ch ng c a th ch y u ch không ph i nguyên nhân c a kh ng ho ng Trong Mishkin (1996, 2001) dùng lý thuy t thông tin b t cân x ng tìm hi u nguyên nhân kh ng ho ng (ví d ng tâm lý l i - moral hazard) t ngh nh ch t ch cho th a b ng lu t l quy c bi t s cam k t trách nhi m c a ph tính minh b ch thơng tin th Trong l ch s ng sách n qu c gia khu v th ng tr b i nh ng qu u tr i qua th i k b m , th ch ng có s pha tr n t nhi u ngu m t q trình khơi ph c, ch nh i tr i qua n hi nh Tuy nhiên, th ch thành v quan tâm c p bách c a nhi u qu c gia Khi n n kinh t th vi, n ng phát tri n, ho c th ch không theo k p s d nhiên, nh ng kinh t , xã h i tinh n s suy thoái c a n n kinh t Tuy nh ch mang tính lý thuy t, tr ti n ch ng th ch cơng có u xét v m t th c ng khơng n u có s gi i quy t câu h c a ch ng th ch ng c a ch ng th ch ng ng kinh t t i qu c gia khu v nghiên c u th c hi n lu M c tiêu nghiên c tài a phân tích c v m t lý thuy t th c nghi m tác n ng b ng cách xem xét khía c nh khác c a khái ni m v th ch công Lu ch s ng c a th ch ng kinh t thơng qua s ti ng nói tính gi i trình, ch s tính ch s hi u qu c a ph , ch s ch u ti t, ch s nh tr , nh c a pháp lu t ch s ki Thông qua nghiên c u, tác gi mu n làm rõ nh ng câu h i nghiên c ng th ch ch t ng kinh t hay khơng? Và n u có, tác ng s nào? T xu t nh ng gi i pháp, sách thúc ng b n v ng, nh tài ch y u nghiên c ng c a ch kinh t c a qu c gia khu v c ASEAN tài nghiên c ng ch khu v n 1996 ng 2012 ng kinh t qu c gia 2012 thơng qua bi n VAI - ch s ti ng nói nh tr , GEI - ch s hi u qu c a u ti t, RLI - ch s CCI - ch s ki bi n 1996 ng th ch trách nhi m gi i trình, PSI - ch s tính ph , RQI - ch s ch ng th ch cơng nh c a pháp lu t Ngồi bi n trên, tác gi s d ng thêm m t (1) D li u v th ch n n kinh t c a qu c gia khu v th n 1996 c thu 2012 t WDI (World Bank Development Indicators) th c hi n nghiên c u, tác gi s d xây d ng d li ti n hành ki ng kinh t ng c nh c n thi n ng ng u nhiên (random effect model) l a ch n mơ hình thích h p nh t Bên c nghiên c u s d kh c ph c nh ng khuy t m c a OLS Mơ hình nghiên c ng c a th ch cơng t (OLS), mơ hình tác nh (fixed effect model), m t s ki ng c th c hi n c th 60 D a vào nghiên c v k t lu n r ng ng kinh t b n u tiên ph c n làm nâng cao hi u qu c a ph , v cung ng d ch v công ph c m b o tính cơng b ng, hi u qu , nâng cao trách nhi m i th a hành công v , bên c m b o th c hi n an sinh xã h i song song v i phát tri n kinh t Bên c b n phát hi n tiêu di t tri t n n quan liêu làm cho b máy hành ho quy c th c hi n s ng t c nhi c Nh t quán sách sách có tính d báo cao, t m nhìn xa s t c ni m tin cho doanh nghi Ti n tr hi n kh a ph vi n nâng cao ch y phát tri n khu v v c kinh t ng, tr s phát tri n c a n n kinh t c n tôn tr ng b u ti t, th ng l c l y phát tri n kinh t khu v m quy n t kinh doanh theo pháp lu t, b o h quy n s h u cam k t h i nh p kinh t qu c t ; C i v i khu v lu c bi t ng bi n pháp c th tính minh b ch nâng cao trách nhi m gi i trình c ng t y nhanh ph tài s n h p pháp c a công dân, tuân th nguyên t c thông l qu c t s khu im y c nh m t o c qu n lý kinh t c a Nhà u ki n cho m i doanh nghi c t kinh doanh theo pháp ng, có l i, k t h p hài hịa l i ích kinh t - tr - xã h i môi ng; Nghiên c sách h tr a khu v t b ng s n xu t kinh doanh, v khoa h c cơng ngh th trình giáo d p trung gi i quy t khó ng th i Chính ph o khoa h c công ngh y m nh c chính, xây d ng b máy qu n có nh ng thích ng viên khuy n khích, tơn vinh nhân r c n ti p t l c n hình Bên c c bi t coi tr ng c i cách th t c hành c s ch, v ng m 61 n m b t thi hành pháp lu t c v c kinh t m c qu n lý có liên quan tr c ti p khu c n xây d ng, tri n khai công c qu n lý h tr i v i khu v c kinh t nt m tr doanh nghi n ch t doanh nghi ng sách, thơng tin th khuy n khích tà n theo ngành, s n ph ng nh ng a bàn, ch không theo t ng doanh nghi p, d án c th ho c tính ch t s h u Ngoài ra, minh b ch nâng cao trách nhi m gi i trình c i v i khu v pháp lu t c n c i m y tính c nh m t o s c, trình xây d ng sách a, có s tham gia c a m ng ch không ph i dân t có ý n pháp lu ng th quan q trình xây d ng pháp lu t V phía khu v l c, nh n th c cho m i dân v tính minh b ch, trách nhi m gi i trình cơng tác truy Các khía c nh cịn l i c a th ch trình, RLI nh c a pháp lu t CCI nh ng kinh t ti ng nói trách nhi m gi i ki ng r t mà c n tr ng c i thi n.Xét v khía c nh ti ng nói trách nhi m gi i trình, n u thi u ti ng nói trách nhi m gi i trình c u thành c c b u hành nói riêng xã h i nói chung Nâng cao ti ng nói trách nhi m gi i trình c i dân s t o s minh b ch nâng hi u qu c a ph th c hi n nhi m v nâng cao trách nhi m gi i trình c n th c hi n nh ng n i dung sau: V phía ph : C n nh n th n ch hi n trách nhi m gi i trình c a ph c s c a vi c th c c c ph c cung c p, gi i thích, làm rõ thơng tin v th c hi n nhi m v , quy n h c giao trách nhi m c a vi c th c hi n nhi m v , quy n h Trách nhi m gi i trình, th , m c, m t cơng c minh b ch 62 hóa quy nh, hành vi qu n lý, ho ng c c, ph n phòng ng pháp lý, trách nhi m gi i trình c ng ch t có u c u c a ch c, cá nhân có quy n l i ích h p pháp b ng tr c ti p b i quy t nh, hành vi c th hi m gi i trình cịn ph c v nhân dân c , công ch c, tinh th an c gi t ch i dân, nh nh ng quy ng ch u s ng, hi u, thông su nh, hành vi qu n lý c n ph m t cơng vi c có tính ch t vi ng xun, ng c u này, khơng ch góp ph n nâng cao hi u l c, hi u qu qu m ch t t c, phòng ch ng pc , công ch c tôn tr ng nhân dân V c t lõi th c hi n trách nhi m gi i trình c a ph u trách nhi m v nh ng h u qu x y quy nh, hành vi c a Vì v y, nâng cao trách nhi m gi i trình c i cán b , nh u ph i th c hi n ch u trách nhi trình c ng, sáng t o, y, vi c th c hi n trách nhi m gi i c m i khơng mang tính hình th c mà p ý c s c a V i dân: C n ràng bu c trách nhi m d ch v công: Trách nhi m gi i trình m t quy trình hai chi i dân có nh ng nhu c u mà ch có nh ng d ch v c a ph m i c V ph n mình, ph ph i cung c p nh ng d ch v m t cách hi u qu nh i dân c n ràng bu c ph v trách nhi mà ph cung c p, h ph d ch v nâng cao tính i v i d ch v i lên ti ng li u h có hài lịng v i ng c i dân vi c th c hi n 63 giám sát ph ho tr ng, t vai trị vơ quan i dân nên phát huy phi ph n h i Các phi c a cu u ý ki n s d u ý ki n n u tra c t c s d ng r c công b t qu t ph n c a quy trình chia s thơng tin r Bên c nh c a pháp lu t s b o v quy n t c b oh c pháp lu t Pháp lu nh, b n v ng Mu n v d c pháp lu c tôn tr ng s c h t c n nâng cao ch n m i t ng l m mb ng n ng công tác ph bi n, giáo o s chuy n bi n m nh m v nh n th c, ý th c tôn tr ng pháp lu t hành vi ch p hành pháp lu t c rà soát, b sung, hoàn thi n pháp lu mb om phù h p v i tình hình th c ti n c c pháp lu t, quy c th hi n t t c t , tr , cc a c pháp lu t xã h i nh t quy tôn b t k v th gi c i s ng xã h i c bi c kinh c pháp lý t t ng Tiêu chí c a m n lu t pháp ph i vi ph m b xâm ph m Quy không b phân bi t b i gi i tính, dân t c, xã h i, ng xuyên a v xã h i ng c a công dân ng, tôn giáo, giàu nghèo, thành ph n u ki ng quy s d ng quy thu c r t nhi u vào kh c nh c a m i Nhà c ph i có vai trị quan tr ng vi c b dân th c hi n quy m c Hi n pháp lu Ch s ng ch u ki n hồn m cho cơng ng, cơng dân c n th c hi n t t u ki s d ng quy n c a ng th ch l i ki c th c hi n t t s c i thi ng kinh t thông qua nhi , ki m soát ng kinh t c 64 ti c ngoài, vi n tr th c hi n t t vi c ki th c hi n nh ng n n sau: u tiên, th c hi n công khai, minh b ch ho quan, t ch ng c a ph n pháp quan tr Công khai, minh b ch s t giám sát ho n u ki i tham gia ng c c V i vi c công khai minh b ch ho t ng t i dân s d dàng nh n bi c ch h ng th c hi c quy n nh c a pháp lu c cán b , công ch c th c hi Công khai, minh b ch s làm cho công ch c có ý th hi n ch c trách, cơng v c a c th c , th t c, th m quy n mà pháp lu t nh, b i m i hành vi vi ph m, phi n hà, sách nhi u hay l i d ng ch l u có th b phát hi n x lý Công khai minh b ch nh ng chìa khố then ch t nh m b u tranh ch Ti p theo, c n xây d ng th c hi n ch nh m c, tiêu chu c qu s n, v , n vi c s d ng tài c Vi c th c hi n m t cách tu ti n trái phép tiêu chu n, ch nh m d ho c nh ng l i ích v t ch c a nh v n vi c tài s n c ts c b th t thoát, ti n b c i, th c ch i có ch c v , quy n h n ho c nh ng l i b t i có quan h thân quen i có ch c v , quy n h n Xây d ng quy t c ng x , quy t c ngh nghi p, vi c chuy công tác c a cán b , cơng ch c, viên ch tr ho nh m c, tiêu chu n Ch c th gi i m c dù có ch n, vi c th c hi n quy n l ng cơng v c cách t i v trí c Vì v u ph i thơng qua ch ng ki m soát vi c th c hi n quy n l c, c th , công ch c q trình th c hi n cơng v Ngồi ra, 65 ch ng m n ki m soát c nh ng quan h xã h i c a h , nh ng quan h có l i d ng n C i m i công ngh qu nh m phịng ng c tốn n ho ng nh t c a b ng quan tr ng sôi cc i s ng xã h i nh c, di n m n quy n l i c a m nhi u nh th nh tr i cách hành ln m c áp d ng bi n pháp qu ng xuyên C th c hi n vi c tốn thơng qua tài kho n t i ngân hàng, kho b th c hi y ch c, có trách nhi m nh v tốn b ng chuy n kho n; Chính ph áp d ng gi i pháp tài chính, công ngh , ti n t i th c hi n m i kho quy n h n giao d ch khác có s d iv i có ch c v , c ph i thơng qua tài kho n; Minh b ch hóa q trình so n th o, trình, ban hành sách, pháp lu t; trình chu n b , trình, ban hành quy n hành g n li n v i vi c c i cách th t c hành chính; Th c hi n phân công, phân c p rõ ràng; quy m ch ch m v , quy n h n c a m i c p qu n lý, kh c ph c tình tr ng ch ng chéo, b tr ng 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