r^^ /^ Dau Xuan Giap Ngo, luan ban ve nhu'ng van de cua nen kinh te Viet Nam BGI TRINH, NGUYEN VIET PHONG Tdng cyc Thdng ke Kinh te ViSt Nam trong nhffng nam gSn day dang tang tru'dng cham Iai va Iam phat luon bj "bufic t6i" la rao can. Tuy nhi§n, dieu do lidu da dung hay con an chu'a dieu gi khac? HIEU QUA NGAY CANG GIAM So sdnh mol sd' yd'u td kinh Id' vT md eho tha'y, he sd ICOR Hen luc lang tff 4,89 trong giai doan 2000 - 2006 idn 7,56 trong giai doan 2007 - 2012. Trong khi ddng gdp Clia ndng sua't nhdn Id' tdng hdp (TFP) vao tang trffdng GDP khoang 22,93% trong giai doan 2000 - 2006, thi dd'n giai doan 2007 - 2012 gidm xud'ng chi con 6,44%. Bdn canh do, nd'u linh todn ty le he so' gid tri gia tdng iren gid rii san xua't tff ndm 2000 dd'n nay, thi ty le nay ngay cdng nho. Nd'u ndm 2000, san xud't ra 10 ddng se tao ra tren 4 ddng gid tri gia tang, thi de'n gtai doan hien nay chi tao ra khoang 3,5 ddng gid tri gta lang. Vi vdy, mdt Iffdng tien bo ra de san xua'l, nhrfng lai tao ra mdt Irfdng hang hod it hdn se lam phd v3 quan he rien - hdng va gop phin ldm tang ehi phi ciia hdng hod san xua't trong nrfdc. Ngoai ra, tich luy tff ndi bd nen kinh te' Ihdng qua chi lidu ve ehi rieu (lie'l kidm) ngdy edng giam siit. Ne'u tich luy tff npi bp nen kinh td' chid'm khoang 36% GDP giai doan 2000 - 2006, thi chi tidu ndy giam xud'ng drfdi I 30% GDP giai doan 2007 - 2012, trong khi dau Irf hang nam ngay cang chie'm ty trpng cao trong GDP. Dieu ndy cho iha'y, nd nan ngdy cang gia lang ma sff dung ddng rien di vay khong hieu qua la mdt riii ro rd'l Idn ve lau ddi. Tinh loan he so'lan tda cua cdc nhan Id cua eau cudi cung (final demand) drfa trdn bang I-O cua Viet Nam irong 2 giai doan 2000 - 2005 vd 2006 - 2010 cho thay, dp lan tda ciia eau cud'i ciing ldn sdn xud't vd thu nhdp cd srf khde biet khd Idn, nd'u trong giai doan 2000 - 2005 dau tff lan tda de'n san xua'l cao nhd't trong cdc ye'u Id'cua cau cud'i cilng, thi de'n giai doan 2006 - 2010 lai kem nhd't, sut giam khoang 23% (giai doan trrfdc khi »^ ^HAN TiCH - NHAN DjNH - DCT BAO tang mpt ddng dau trf se kieh thich phia cung 1,65 ddng, de'n giai doan hidn nay, khi tdng mot ddng diu trf chi Ian toa dd'n phia cung la 1,27 ddng). Hdn nffa, giai doan trrfdc tdng mpi ddng dau trf cd the' tao ra 0,53 ddng gia tri gia lang, nhrfng de'n giai doan sau chi lam tang dffdc 0.48 ddng gid tri gia tang. Vd tidu dung cudi ciing trong giai doan sau, khi tang m6l ddng ridu dung ddi hoi nhieu gid tri san xud't hdn, nhffng lai lan toa dd'n gid tri gia tang it hdn giai doan trffdc. Ve xua'l khau cung nhff vay, khi tdng mdt ddng xua'l khau lan toa de'n gid tri gia tang sul giam so vdi giai doan trffdc 18%. Ke't qua tinh loan tren cho tha'y. dau Iff dang ngay cang kem hidu qua vd nd'u phia eung yd'u kem, thi bd't ky mpt sff gia lang nao d phia cau chi lam tang gid, tham hut ihffdng mai vd cang thang ve ty gia ma ihoi, Nd'u rid'p tue vdi chinh sdch quan ly clu nhff hien nay, thi nen kinh Ie' lai rdi vao vong xoay lam phat - suy tram. BANG 1: so SAMH MOT SO YEU TO Vl MO CUA GIAI DOAN 2000-2006 VA 2007-2012 Tong nguon (cung) San pham san xuat trong nu'dc Nhap khau Tong cau Cau trung gian Cau cuoi ciing Tieu dung (C + G) Dau tu'/tich luy Xuat khau He so chi phi trung gian/gid tn san xuat He so gid Iri tang Ihem/gid in san xuat ICOR Dong g6p cua TFP vao tang tru'dng kinh te Ty le tiet kiem tren GDP Tang tru'dng GDP 2007- 2012 l(K),0() 81.16 18,84 100.00 48.12 51.88 20,2 8,88 22.8 65 35 7.56 6.44 28 5,9 2000- 2006 100,00 79,25 20,75 100.00 42.99 57,01 26,42 10,75 19.85 54 46 4,89 23 36 7,5 Tang tru'dng GNI jTyleGNI/GDP I Ty trong dau ttf tren GDP BANG 2: HE SO LAN TOA CUA CAc NHAN TO CAG CUOI CUNG DEN SAN XUAT VA THU MHAP j 2000 -2005 1 i • Lan toj lii cau cuo'i cung den GTSX Lan toa iff cau cudi cung de'n thu nhap Tieu dung cufl'i Cling 1.55 0.731 To^ng dau trf 1.65 0.526 Xua't khau 1.53 2006-2010 ! Tidu Tfl'ng diing ddu cuoi tiT ciing 1,71 1 i,27 0.685 0,70 0.48 Xua't khau 1,59 0,57 GDP HAY GNI? Hien nay, cdc ddnh gia rinh hini kinh td' thffdng dffdc gan chat vdi ch lieu GDP. Nhffng, chl rieu GDP thffc n khdng phan dnh dffdc day dii bffe Irani cua nen kinh td', chdng ban nhff doanl nghidp FDI chuyen ve khai thac ta: nguydn hp se chuyd'n phin ldi nhuan ve nrfdc hp, nhrfng vdn drfdc the' hien Irong GDP cua Viet Nam. Trong khi do, chi lieu Td'ng thu nhap Qud'c gia (GNI- Gross National Income), dffdc xde dinh bang Tdng san pha'm trong nffdc (GDP) cong vdi thu nhap tff sd hffu trff di chi Ira sd hffu hau nhrf khdng cd (hoac rat it) ngrfdi sff dung so' lieu nay trong cdc nghidn effu hoac cae bdo edo. Chi lieu GNI phan dnh dung va thrfc chd't hdn gia Iri ma dd't nrfdc drfdc hffdng. Nd'u xet ve GNI theo gid thffc Id' nam 2012 so vdi nam 2000 chi tdng 6 lan v^ nd'u lay chi so' giam phai GDP (GDP deflactor) de loai trff ye'u to'gia ciia tdng thu nhap quo'c gia, thi GNI chi tang 2,15 lan. Xet 2 giai doan 2000 - 2006 vd 2007 - 2012, thi GDP va GNI tang binh quan tffdng ffng theo 2 giai doan Id 7,5% - 7,4%o; va 5,9%> - 5,3%. Dieu nay cho thay, dp doang gii?a toe dp tdng trffdng GDP va GNI ngay edng ldn. Nd'u ndm 2000, ly le giffa GNI va GDP Id 98,6%, thi de'n nam 2012, ty le nay xud'ng edn 95%, dieu nay cho tha'y ludng lien ra ngay cang ldn vh tdng thu nhap qud'c gia ngdy eang nhd so vdi GDP. Ne'u xet Iheo gid hien hanh, ihi mii'c dp chi tra sd hffu Ihuan cho ben ngodi cua ndm 2012 so vdi ndm 2000 Idng khoang 26 lln (trong khi GDP lang 6,7 ian). Toe dp chi tra sd hifu thuan ra nffdc ngoai Idng binh quan hdng nam khoang 20% (trong khi td'c dp tdng GDP binh qudn hdng ndm ehi la 7%). Tmh hinh tff nam 2011 den nay eho tha'y, khi ma'y ddng cd "ndi" (kinh id' nha nffdc, doanh nghidp tif nhan, nong nghidp) cua nen kinh te suy tram, chi cd mpt ddng cd "ngoai" (khu vffc FDI) chay tot, luy dieu nay cd lam cho chl ridu "phii phiem" GDP dffdc hffdng ldi trong tang trrfdng, nhifng ngudn life cua qud'c gia thi khdng hodn toan nhif vay, thdm ehi cd the dang ngdy cdng suy kiet. Hinh I bieu thj khoan ehi trd sd hifu ra nrfdc ngoai Ihuan (chi tra sd hii^i - thu nhap Iff sd hifu) ddc bidt tdng iff ndm 2005 de'n 2011. Ngoai ra cd the nhan thd'y, tuy khong 22 hoan todn do khu vffc FDI. nhffng ro rang khu vffc nay gdp phan quan trong lam ludng tien di ra khoi da't nffdc ngay mot ldn va Hinh 2 da cho tha'y mffe dd lien quan cua FDI de'n ludng lien ra. Dieu nay eanh bdo rdng, chung ta dang qud ehu trong den chi ridu GDP, ma quen mat hoac khong nhin tha'u cdi nffdc ta drfdc hffdng sau cung Id GNI. Cling vdl viec tham hut thffdng mai cao. thi day Id mdt ly do cd ban khie'n ddng lien Viet Nam ngay cang mat gid. Dieu nay cho thd'y, td'c dp tdng trffdng GDP ra't it y nghTa trong viec phan dnh rinh trang ihrfc srf cua nen kinh id'. Cung do GNI ngdy cang nho so vdi GDP, ma ty le tiel kiem (ngudn de dau tff) tff nen kinh td' giam xudng mdt each nhanh chdng, ddc biet tff nam 2006 den nay, giam Iff 36% xud'ng cdn 29%. Tie't kidm cua ndi bd nen kinh Id' la ngudn cd bandd'dau tff, mdly Id nay gidm ra't manh Iff 87% trong long vd'n dau tff trong ndm 2006 xudng chi cdn 67% trong nam 2009 (tffc la Irong vong 4 nam, ty le nay giam khoang 20 diem phdn trdm). Nhffng, didu ddng ngai hdn ca la ly Id dau tff trdn GDP giam khdng ddng ke, Dieu ndy eho tha'y, khdng the ndi chung chung giam lang trffdng de dn dinh vT md ma can xac dinh dn djnh vT md la on dinh edi gi? VAN OE CUA KINH IE VIET NAiVt LA Gi? Tff nhiimg nghien effu trdn, ehiing ta ed Ihd' Iha'y mpt sd' va'n de ldn eua ndn kinh le'nhff: Thd nhd't, trong thdi gian qua, hau he't cie chuydn gia va cac nhd tff van chinh sdch eua Viet Nam tap trung vao quan \-$ long cau. Chinh sdch nhrf vdy khdng sai, nhrfng khi sffdung chinh sdch quan ly idng cau kieu Keynes can y thffe rdng dd Id chinh sdch mang tinh ngdn han \ a nha'l Ihdi, khdng Ihd' sff dung lau dai vd irien mien. Vide sffdung chinh sdch nay sud't tff ndm 2007 de'n nay dd khie'n nen kinh id Vipl Nam rdi vao vong \o;iy lam phai - suy tram, khie'n ea phia eung va phia clu cua nen kinh te' deu ye'u. Ngay ca va'n de lam phdi ne'u drfdc giai quyel, thi ciing chi Id giai quye't phan ngon cua van de, md nguyen nhdn sau xa lai Id do hidu qua san xud't, diu trf tha'p vd cd eau kinh le Ipch lac. Trong trang hudng dd, drfdi gdc dp nghien effu, hiing loai eau hdi cd the dffdc ddt ra: Lipu ^t* '-"•"'u kmh te \di ffU tidn thff trf cong nghiep. dich vu va ndng nghiep cd phai la cd ea'u kinh te' hdp ly? Lieu chiing ta cd nen drfa qua nhieu vao xua'l kha'u dd' thiic day tang tnj^t^ kinh td? Phai chdng dd dd'n lue chung la can quan tSm dd'n chinh sdch trong eung vdi y niem la tdn trpng phia cung, hrfdng tdi chinh sdch dieu hanh nen kinh te' mang tinh dai ban? Thd hai, ve dau trf cdng, tinh lan toa khdng rd ret. khd mang lai hieu qua thrfc srf cho nen kinh id'. Chdng han nhrf dap pha tru sS cii xay tru sd mdi cua cac cd quan nhd nrfdc, lat lai via he long drfdng, mua sdm xe CO, xay edng vidn,,, cd the' lao them mpt chut \iec lam, giam mpt chui tdn kho, tang mpt chiit GDP. , nhrfng chi tai thdi did'm do, chff khdng he lan toa theo hffdng rich cffc den cdc nam sau, md anh hffdng lidu cffc dffdng nhff lai rd rang hdn, nha'l la iff gdc dp ldng phi cdc ngudn Irfc. Thiiba. tang trffdng chu ye'u dffa vao vdn ma khong ehu trpng dd'n thay ddi quy trinh edng nghd, khi sff dung ngudn vdn khdng hidu qua se gdy ra lam phat. Ben canh do, khi tang trffdng dffa vdo vd'n ma edc doanh nghiep khdng rie'p can dffdc vd'n do Ihdl chdt tien td va lai sud't cua he thd'ng ngan hang dan dd'n suy giam manh ve tdng cung, giam Ihu nhap cua ngffdi ddn va lai HiNH 1: CHI TRA 8(3 HtfU THUAN RA MdOC NGOAl THEO 2 LO^I GIA • ml § i s s ; HirHH 2- so SAMH CHI TRA Sd HdU RA hUCiC MGOAI VA VOIS DAU Td TRUC TIEP NUGC NGOAI 23 HAN TiCH - NHAN D!MH - DCT BAO tid'p tuc anh hrfdng ngrfdc dd'n cau. Suy giam long cau lam tram trong hdn dd'n phia cung vd nen kinh id'dffdng nhff rdi vdo vong xody cua lam phdt - suy trim, hoac vffa lam phdt vffa suy tram. Thd tu, ve khu vffc san xua't, kinh doanh, hong sud'i nam 2011 dd'n nay, du dd cd mot sd chinh sach nham kich thieh san xua'l, nhrfng chrfa thrfc srf hidu qua, dan den rinh Irang so'Irfdng doanh nghidp "chd't" hoac "chd chd't" nhieu chrfa tii^g cd. Nhffng doanh nghiep nay hau he't la cdc doanh nghiep ngodi qud'c doanh, day la nhffng doanh nghidp cd gia tri gia tang dong gdp 48% vao GDP. Trong khi do, doanh nghidp nha nrfdc vd doanh nghidp FDl cd hidu qua dau tff ra't tha'p. Dieu gi se xay ra neu cdc doanh nghiep ngodi qudc doanh phd san hoac mat kha ndng thanh khoan vd khdng the' md rdng san xua'l? San xua'l dinh dd'n se lam giam tdng gid tri gia ldng cua nen kinh Id'. Nd'u thu nhdp tff san xua't giam, sffc mua se giam, tid'p iheo la mpt cudc khung hoang ca ve cung va eau ngay eang nghidm trpng vd khdng the cha'm dfft. KHUYEN NCH! CHINH SACH Tff nhffng va'n de cila nen kinh td' Viet Nam dffde neu d tren, chung tdi de xud't mpt sd kie'n nghi sau: Mol la, vide xay dffng mot kd' hoaeh tdng the' ddi han cho phat tne'n kinh te la mdi ydu elu td'i quan trong hien nay. Ke hoaeh phai mang linh chie'n lffdc vd eo sff phd'i hdp giffa edc bp, nganh trong quan ly vd chii Irpng hidu qua phat trien, han chd' dieu hdnh thi trffdng mang tinh menh lenh, hanh chinh, duy y chi va xin-cho, ban phdt. Hai Id, xem xet lai ed cau kinh Id', chu trpng den ede nganh kmh te' mang Iai hidu ffng lan loa cao dd'n san xuat trong nffdc. Chang han san xua't vd ehe' bie'n san pha'm ndng nghidp, cong nghiep che bid'n Ihuy, hai san, la 2 nhdm nganh duy nha't d giai doan nay ed hd sd lan toa den san xua't trong nffdc eao vd he sd lan toa ve nhap kha'u trfdng ddi tha'p. Ba Id, eai cdch the' che' de edc doanh nghidp trf nhan va khu vrfc ndng nghidp thrfc srf binh dang vdi khu vrfc kinh id nha nffdc va khu vffc kinh td' FDI. Xem xel danh gia vd sffa ddi bd sung Luat Doanh nghiep, Luat Dau iff, sdm ban hanh Luat Dau tff cong. Bdn la, dd' thodt khoi nguy cd tut hau cua nen kinh td', Ihi dieu cd't loi trong thcfi die'm nay la chung ta phai xac djnh xa\ dffng mpt nen kinh tdphdi trid'n Iheo dinh hrfdng dpc lap vd trf chu. Theo do, nang cao ye'u td'ndi life cua nen kinh te la vi$c Idm drfdc rfu lien hdng dau, dam bao ItJi nhuan cua doanh nghidp va nha't ihiei phai bao ve Idi ich qud'c gia.G TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 1. Pham The Anh, Dinh Tud'n Minh, Nguydn Thi Minh (2013). Kinh le Viel Nam: Tit chinh sdch on dinh long cdu sang chinh sdch trong cung de thiic day ldng trudng. Nxb Tri thffe 2. Bui Trinh, Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Pham Le Hoa & Nguyen Viet Phong (2012). Vietnamese Economic Structural Change and Policy ImpHcarions, Global Journal of Human Social Science Sociology Economics & Political Science, Volume 12 Issue 9 Version 1.0 3. Bui Trinh. Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Trung-Dien Vu, Pham Le Hoa, Nguyen Viet Phong (2012)- New Economic Structure for Vietnam Toward Sustainable Economic Growth in 2020, G/o^ Journal of Human Social Science Sociology Economics & Political Science, Volume 12 Issue 10 Version 1.0 24 . Ngo, luan ban ve nhu'ng van de cua nen kinh te Viet Nam BGI TRINH, NGUYEN VIET PHONG Tdng cyc Thdng ke Kinh te ViSt Nam trong nhffng nam gSn day dang tang tru'dng cham Iai. quan hdng nam khoang 20% (trong khi td'c dp tdng GDP binh qudn hdng ndm ehi la 7%). Tmh hinh tff nam 2011 den nay eho tha'y, khi ma'y ddng cd "ndi" (kinh id' . de dau tff) tff nen kinh td' giam xudng mdt each nhanh chdng, ddc biet tff nam 2006 den nay, giam Iff 36% xud'ng cdn 29%. Tie't kidm cua ndi bd nen kinh Id' la ngudn