BQ GIAO DlJC VA DAO TAO TRUONG f)~l HOC KINH TE TP.HCM DE TAr NGHIEN cuu KHOA HOC CAP co sd GIAI PHAP THU HUT DONG VON DAU Tu' " "" ' " GIAN TIEP- FPI VAO VIETNAM Ma s6 dS ali : cs - 2006 - 1o sO GIAO DUC DAO TAO TRliONG D~l HQC KINH rf'TP.HCM THUVIEN • ') (16 d ~ lt Chu nhi~m d~ tai : Th~c sy LE D~ T CHi Thanh vien a@ tai: Th~c sy DUONG KHA Th~c ~ ? , sy TRAN THl HAl L Y Tp H6 Chi Minh- 2007 Trang i DANH MUC • cAc TUVHLT TAT TTCK Thi truang chtrng khmin VN Vi~t FPI Dong v6n ddu tu gian tiep nu6·c ngoai FDI Dong v6n ddu tu tl1!c tiep nu6c ngoai GDP T 6c d() tang tru6ng kinh te FPOI Dong v6n ddu tu gian tiep va dong v6n khac NAY Gia trj Uti san rong QFII Chtrng nh~n nha ddu tu t6 ch(rc du tieu chu§n WTO T6 chuc thuang m1,1i the gi6i IMF Quy ti6n t~ the gi6i AFPOI M{rc d() anh huang Clta rna CLJ'a tai khoan v6n d6i v&i dong ; , / , ' von gmn ttep nuac ngoat KAO M(rc d() HSBC Ngan hang H6ng Kong Thm;mg Hai NHNN N gan hang nha mr6c UIP Ngang gia lai suftt khong duqc phong ng-Lra DTNN Ddu tu nu6c ngoai DN Doanh nghi~p CAD Tham h~tt tai khoan vang lai Nam ma cira tai khoim v6n Trang ii DANH MUC • c.Ac BANG Bang 1.1: Dong v6n dciu ttr tqrc tiSp va gian tiSp mr6·c ngoai vao m9t vai mr6·c dang phat tri~n (tri~u $) Bang 1.2: S6 li~u th6ng ke t6ng hqp cua ln(FPI/FDI) ru· nam 1990 - 2004 Bang 1.3: S~r tang tnr6'ng dong v6n tu nhan cua FDI tLr 1981 dSn 2003 Bang 1.4: Danh sach cac quy h6 tuang hang dciu c6 trv sa t~i Trung Qu6c (Chinabased mutual Funds) Bang 1.5: Danh sach cac quy dong hang dfiu c6 tqt s6' t~i Trung Qu6c (China-based close-end Funds) Bang 1.6: Top 20 quy c6 mt:rc tang tru·ang NA V cao nhfit nam 2006 Bang 1.7: Cac dong v6n cua Trung Qu6c, 1996-2004 (Dan vj tinh: cy $) Bang 2.1: Danh sach cac quy dciu tu· vao Vi~t Nam cung nhu tang tnr6'ng NA V ci:ta m()t s6 quy (dvt: tri~u $) Bang 2.2: Danh sach cac quy dciu tu nu6c cung nhu tang tnrang NA V cua m()t s6 quy (dvt: tri~u $) Bang 2.3: Cac quy dciu tu vao Vi~t Nam l~p nam 2007 Bang 3.1: Muc anh huang va vi~c dv bao kha nang xay S\f dao ngUQ'C dong v6n DANH MUC CAC HINH • Hinh 1.1: Dong v6n ddu tu vao Trung Qu6c tir nam 1982-2004 Hinh 1.2: Dong v6n ddu tu vao Trung Qu6c so v6i % GDP (tri~u $) Hinh 1.3: Vi~c khuySn khich AFPOI d6i v6i Trung Qu6c Hinh 2.1: Thj truang ch(mg khm1n va VND Hinh 3.1: Dong v6n va vi~c ki~m soat dong v6n vao o· cac thj tnrcmg m6'i n6i Trang iii , DANH MUC CAC PHU LUC Ph\) 1\)e 1: Danh sach 25/54 quy d~u tu himg d~u Trung Quf>c Ph1]11}e 2: Tim hi~u v~ each phan lo~i c6 ph~n cua Trung Quf>c Ph1]l1}e 3: Tim hi~u thi trucmg c6 ph~n lo~i B Ph\1 1\)e 4: Tim hi~u h1~t QFll - Quanlit1ed Foreign Institutional Investors - ci:m Trung Qu6c D~i Lvc Ph\) 1\)e 5: Nh~n djnh ciw mt djnh ch~ tai chinh trung gian nhu cac quy d~u tu va ho~c d~u tu tn,rc ti~p vao c6 ph~n Clla cong ty niem y~t tren thj trUOng ch(rng khoan, gQi }a d~u tu gian ti~p (portfolio investment) Xu huo·ng dong v6n FPI vao Trung Qu6c duqc danh gia qua hai giai do~n Giai do~n thtr nhfit tir nam 1982-2004, day la giai do~n ma dong v6n FPI vao Trung Qu6c gia tang 111Qt each ch~m ch~p va giai do~n th(r hai la ttr nam 2005 d~n 1.1.1 Xu hU'o·ng dong v6n FPI giai do~n 1982-2004, nhu·ng nam trU'o·c thj trU'irng chfrng khoan Trung Qu6c bung nB Khong co SI,J' phat triSn Vli'Qt b~c va b(tt pha nhu· dong v6n d~u tu· tn,rc ti~p FDI, dong v6n FPT vao Trung Qu6c giai do~n co S\f gia tang kha d€u (xem hlnh 1.1 ) Hinh 1.1: Dong v6n d~u tu vao Trung Qu6c tt'r nam 1982 - 2004 Tri~u$ Nam Ngu6n: "The composttton of foreign investment m china and the govemance environment"- MGRU workshop 27/08/04 Khong chi gia tang ch~m, ty trQng cua dong v6n FPT/GDP vao Trung Qu6c kha th~p Di€u cho thAy r~ng FPI chua d6ng g6p nhi€u vao tang truang kinh t~ ctia Tnmg Qu6c tho·i gian (xem hinh 1.2) Trang Hinh 1.2: Dong v6n dfiu tll' vao Trung Qu6c so v6'i % GDP (tri~u $) -1 -2 Nilm I-+- FDI - - FPI :Khac j Ngu6n: "The composition of foreign investment in china and the governance environm ent"- MGRU workshop 27/08/04 Di~u khong c6 gi Ia qua ng~c nhien vi d6 Ia d~c di~m chung cita nhi~u qu&c gia dang phat tri~n khac Bang 1.1 cho thdy dng, ngo~i trtr An B(> c6 SIJ can d&i kha haj hoa gifra tim htlt FPI va FDI qua m(>t s6 nam cac qu6c gia khac d~u c6 cy trQng dong v&n FDI 16'n han so v6'i FPI Bang 1.1: Dong v6n dfiu tu tr\fC ti8p va gian ti8p mr6'c ngoai vao m(>t vai mr6'c dang phat tri~n (tri~u $) Nam QuAe gia Trung Qu6c An DQ Indonesia Malaysia Philippine Thai Lan Cac nu6c dang phat tri~n kl1ac c6 phfin ct:ta An DQ cac nu6'c dang phat tri~n kluic 1992 1995 1997 FDI FPI FDI FPI FDI FPI 11.156 277 1.777 5.183 228 2.113 46.100 1.194 241 119 385 333 14.057 35.849 2.144 4.348 4.132 1.478 2.068 105.402 2.807 1.517 4.873 2.299 1.961 2.154 36.057 44 236 3.351 4.677 5.106 1.222 3.745 163.423 8.457 2.116 298 -489 73 -308 30.191 0,6 1,7 1,9 4,2 2,0 7,0 1999; Global Ngu6n: Economic Survey, Govermment of India Development Finance, WorldBank, 1999 1998 - So v6i nhi~u nu6c tren the gi6i, thi tY 1~ dfiu tu FPT so v6i GOP cua Trung Qu6c thu(>c vao h~ng thdp Bang 1.2 cho thdy ln(FPl/FD l) ci1a Trung Qu6c giai do~n 1990-2004 Ia vao khoang -2,94 Trang Bang 1.2: S61i~u th&ng ke tbng hQ'p cua ln(FPI/FDI) tLr nam 1990- 2004 Country Name United States United Kingdom Austria Belgium Denmark France Gennany Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Sweden Switzerland Canada Japan Finland Greece Iceland Ireland Malta Portugal Spain Turkey Australia New Zealand South Africa Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic El Salvador Mexico Paraguay Peru Obs Mean Country N arne 15 -0.56 Cambodia 15 -0.14 Taiwan Province of China 15 -0.32 Hong Kong S.A.R of China 15 -0.37 India 15 -0.69 Indonesia 15 -1.57 Korea 15 -0.28 Malaysia 15 -0.40 Pakistan -0.22 Philippines 15 -0.58 Singapore 15 -0.88 Thailand 15 -1.11 Algeria 15 -0.10 Botswana 15 0.05 Congo, Republic of 15 -0.52 Benin 15 -2.27 Gabon 15 -0.62 Cote d'Ivoire 14 -0.24 Kenya 15 1.02 Libya 11 -1.39 Mali 15 -0.50 Mauritius 15 -1.26 Niger 14 0.43 Rwanda 15 -0.64 Senegal 15 -0.72 Namibia 15 -0.66 Swaziland 15 0.16 Togo 15 -2.91 Tunisia 15 -0.22 Burkina Faso 15 -0.91 Armenia 10 -1.04 Belarus -0.54 Kazakhstan 0.58 Bulgaria 15 -0.40 Moldova 15 -3 11 Russia 15 0.73 China,P.R : lVlainland Obs Mean -0.09 15 -1.14 15 -1.37 15 -0.67 -4.51 15 -2.18 15 -2.27 -2.51 15 -0.17 15 0.05 14 -3.66 14 -7.45 11 -0.16 10 0.30 -3.63 -2.98 14 -1.07 15 -3.48 15 3.04 -3.66 -1.38 -5.38 -0.33 15 -1.27 14 0.65 13 -3.94 13 -1.95 15 2.08 -2.04 -1.58 -1.13 -0.28 -0.52 11 -3.99 13 -4.70 15 -2.94 xxxiii Thtr hai, n~u nhin k1 hon nguyen nhan dua bi~n phap ki~m smit tn,rc ti~p cua Thai Lan, chung ta thtly nguyen nhan sau xa d6 chinh Ia m sv mfiu thufin gifra chinh sach ti~n t~ va cy gia D6ng Baht cim Thai Lan da tang gia qua cao so v6'i USD va lam anh huO'ng d~n ho~t d()ng xu§t khfiu ci1a Thai Lan Chinh vi the, chung toi cho r~ng, m()t sv ph6i hQ'P t6t gifra hai chinh sach ''win thulrng hay bcit hda v6·i nhau, nay, se c6 tac d\mg 16n vi~c ki~m soat dong v6n xxxiv Ph1} 11}.C 10 Tinh tr~ng dola boa cang m()t tang cao giai 1999-2000 do~n St,r phu hqp giu·a chinh sach ti~n t~ va chinh sach ty gia vftn khong xay giai do~n 1999-2000 Sv khong pht\ hqp c6 th~ duqc nh~n m6i lien h~ gifra ba bi~n chfnh: Hli suth n9i dja, lai sudt tl6la nu6·c (local dollar-denominated interest rates) va !iii sudt dola qu6c ti {foreign dollar-denominated interest rates) va m(rc d9 pha gia (depreciation) kl VQilg Th~t cAn thi~t d~ l~y Uii su~t dola nu&c vao S\r xern xet n~n kinh t~ bi dola h6a cao cua Vi~t Narn v&i bi~n phap ki~m soat v6n t6ng hqp Trong su6t giai do~n nay, cac nha ho~ch djnh chinh sach ti~n t~ ctm Vi~t Nam da c6 g~ng d~ tri m9t chinh sach ti~n t~ d9c l~p, c1,1 th~ la tri xu lm6ng lai sufit n()i t~ Chinh sach khong ph-L1 Iwp v&i che d9 ty gia r~n cfrng nh~c Trong b6i canh h9i nh~p tai chinh qu6c t~ cang tang , sv ph6i hqp chinh sach t~o nen h~u qua t6i t~, ch~ng h~n nhu tinh tr~ng dola h6a cao, mire pha gia d6ng n()i t~ cao hun ki vQng, day la di~u ma c6 th~ gay tac d()ng xfiu d~n n€n kinh t€ dai h~n Cu()c khung hoang "tin d1J.ng thll'- LC" 1996-1997 Trfin tin d\mg va cac thu&c quy djnh tn,rc ti~p khac da t~o nen nhi~u uu dai cho cac ngan hang va cac t6 chirc tai chinh Vi~t Nam tranh khoi cac bi~n phap ki~m soat v6n Thu tin dvng (LC) la m()t nhu·ng kenh quan trQng ma cac ngan hang c6 thS tranh trfin tin d\mg vi cho d~n li1c d6 LC duqc lo~i trir kh6i trfm tin dvng.Trong su6t tho·i giannay, ty gia h6i doai la rAt ctrng nh~c va cac cong q1 phong ngt:ra rui ro Ia khong c6 Do d6, hoan canh ma t)r gia h6i doai Ia cung nh~c va c6 ve nhu Ia 6n dinh, da c6 rn9t chenh l~ch dang kS gifra lai sufit n9i dia va lai sufit qu6c t~, va cling c6 cac u11 dai 16n cho ca doanh nghi~p dS vay muqn USD, d~c bi~t thong qua LC Thvc sl)', m()t s6 luqng 16n cac kh6an vay ng~n lwn b~ng USD da duqc vay cho cac doanh nghi~p Di€u da lam gia tang dong v6n vao ng~n h~n va Sl)' tang len cac tai khoim b6 s6t va 16i (error and omissions account), cai duqc cho tin r~ng se phan {mh dong v6n nam 1996 s6 li~u v€ thu tin d1,1ng duqc u&c tinh tich luy la vao khoang 1,5 t)r USD vao tru6·c nam 1997 (World Bank, 1997) K~t qua ctm ki~u vay nq mr&c ngoai nhu tren la dt t6i t~ Dfiu tien, n6 duqc ma r()ng s~r tham hvt tai kh6an vang lai Th(r hai, m9t phfin l&n cac khoan vay ng~n h~n dUQ'C chuy~n vao d~ dfiu CO" kenh b~t d(}ng san, va da hinh nen m()t qua bom thi tnro11g gi6ng nlm Indonesia va Thai Lan XXXV Bai hc co th~ duqc rut ttr cui nh~p" - Lu~n an Th~c sy - Le D~t Chi (2004) "Phuong phap ti6p c~n co ch6 di~u hanh chinh sach cy gia 6· VN"- PGS.TS Trfin NgQc Tho (2006), d~ tai nghien c{ru khoa hQc cfip B