models. behaving. badly._ why c - emanuel derman

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models. behaving. badly._ why c - emanuel derman

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[...]... are much harder to define (let alone quantify) than temperature and pressure When you model “the economy” and “the market” you are modeling high-level abstractions Friedrich Hayek, the Austrian economist who received the 1974 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, pointed out that in the physical sciences we know the macroscopic through concrete experience and proceed to the microscopic by abstraction... experience, and the macroscopic “economy” is the abstraction If the correct way to proceed is from concrete to abstract, he argued, in economics we should begin with agents and proceed to economies and markets rather than vice versa The difficulties one encounters in modeling economic abstractions are illustrated by attempts to deal with the notion of market liquidity Liquidity is the metaphorical quality that... it with Victor Hess, who discovered the cosmic radiation that became the source of many soon-to-bediscovered additional particles Absence Is a Presence Schopenhauer’s notion of eternal sleep as normality and life as brief temporary periods of punctuated antisleep corresponds to Dirac’s picture of the positron as a brief fluctuation in the vacuum Schopenhauer saw the bad things in life—sickness and... the colors separate How convenient it would have been for the government to put each person into a device that could have reported his or her racial composition scientifically But the authorities came as close to that as they could: the Population Registration Act of 1950 created a catalogue in which every individual’s race was recorded South Africa didn’t just categorize people into simple black and... Then, in 1932, Carl Anderson at CalTech discovered a positively charged particle in cosmic rays that, except for the sign of its charge, behaved exactly like an electron He wasn’t looking for it, but it was Dirac’s antiparticle, the positron, the jewel in the theoretical crown and the hole in the sea Dirac received the 1933 Nobel Prize in Physics, sharing it with Schrödinger, and Anderson received his... tops, check the acid concentration with a glass hydrometer, and then top it up as necessary I have a clear picture of my father’s white lab coat riddled with the brownedged holes of acid burns Later, when I studied chemistry in high school, he told me that the correct method of dilution was to pour concentrated acid into water rather than water into concentrated acid, a water splash-back being infinitely... have negative electric charge and are responsible for all the chemical properties of matter Dirac’s equation represented electrons as fast-moving relativistic objects (thereby getting their spacetime properties correct) described by a probability wave (thus matching the quantum nature of their matter) Once he solved his equation, out fell mathematical solutions that miraculously accounted for the previously... bunch of them half-affectionately, half-mockingly as the chaverim — But from age eight to nineteen or twenty I was a junior chaver myself I belonged to Habonim (the Builders), a coeducational Zionist youth movement Habonim was Lord Baden-Powell’s colonial Boy Scouts with the Mowgli mythology replaced by an evangelical pioneering leftish political Zionism, overlaid with the back-to-nature romanticism... aboriginal race or tribe of Africa A Coloured person is a person who is not a white person nor a native Note the pragmatic combination of objectivity and subjectivity: if you are objectively white but accepted as Coloured, then you’re not white In disputed cases a board made decisions that determined not only who you could sleep with but which beaches you could swim at, where you could work and live, which buses... all directly accessible to our senses Centuries later we understand pressure as the kinetic energy of invisible microscopic atoms The atoms, though we consider them real, are more abstract than the pressure and temperature that we perceive directly In economics, Hayek argued, the order of abstraction should be reversed: we know the individual agents and players from concrete personal experience, and . Giroux, LLC. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 97 8-1 -1 1 9-9 671 6-3 (hardback) ISBN 97 8-1 -1 1 9-9 446 8-3 (ebook) ISBN 97 8-1 - 11 9-9 446 9-0 (ebook) ISBN 97 8-1 -1 1 9-9 447 0-6 . indistinguishable-from-white to indistinguishable-from- black and including everything in between. In South Africa we all became expert at a social version of chromatography, a technique chemists use. a device that could have reported his or her racial composition scientifically. But the authorities came as close to that as they could: the Population Registration Act of 1950 created a catalogue

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Mục lục

  • Dedication

  • Title Page

  • Copyright

  • Model I

    • Chapter 1: A Foolish Consistency

      • MODELS THAT FAILED I: ECONOMICS

      • THEORIES, MODELS, AND INTUITION

      • OF TIME AND DESIRE

      • MODELS THAT FAILED II: POLITICS

      • MODELS THAT FAILED III: THE MOVEMENT

      • A LOOK AHEAD

      • TWO IMPOSSIBLE THINGS BEFORE BREAKFAST

      • Chapter 2: Metaphors, Models, and Theories

        • THE DIRAC SEA

        • ANALYTIC CONTINUATION

        • DIG WE MUST

        • A MODEL AIRPLANE: THE ZIPPY

        • TYPES OF MODELS

        • THE NATURE OF MODELS

        • THE NATURE OF THEORIES

        • MONOCULAR DIPLOPIA

        • MAKING THE UNCONSCIOUS CONSCIOUS AGAIN

        • ADDENDUM: GOETHE ON SYMBOLISM

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