[...]... economic trends in major regions of the world: the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Asia, and the Southern Hemisphere The next section focuses on the outlook for the dollar as a reserve currency and the future of gold The sixth part examines the energy market, Iranian politics, and the challenges posed by the issue of climate change The seventh part focuses on a variety of policy issues, including financial... ECONOMIES 1 THE US RECOVERY David Hale The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research has said that the great recession of 2008–2009 ended in July 2009 The US economy had a growth rate of 1.6 percent during the third quarter of 2009 followed by 5.0 percent during the fourth quarter and 3.7 percent during the first quarter of 2010 Growth then slowed to 1.7 percent during the. .. confident that they do not need the advice offered by neuroeconomists, but Malleret thinks that one of the legacies of the recent crisis could be a greater willingness to listen to them Mark Roeder analyzes the role of information in the modern economy Roeder notes that the spread of the Internet has changed how people absorb and use information He quotes Nicholas Carr, who asserts that the Internet... his encouragement and optimism, this book would not have made the rough passage between concept and conclusion Lyric Hughes Hale INTRODUCTION David Hale After more than two years of turmoil in the financial markets and a severe recession during the early months of 2009, there are clear signs that the world economy is poised for a sustained recovery China’s highly stimulative monetary and fiscal policies... financial system and recover from the damage caused by the combination of the financial crisis and the housing market collapse, efforts by governments and central banks to reign in budget deficits and unwind monetary stimulus put in place to combat the recession will lead to more sluggish economic performance than otherwise would be the case in the latter part of 2010 and in 2011 The sovereign debt... an optimistic view of the dollar’s prospects of continuing as a global reserve currency He reviews the process by which the dollar displaced the British pound as the dominant global currency during the early decades of the twentieth century He then analyzes the prerequisites to be a reserve currency in the modern era They are that the currency be widely available outside its home economy, that it be... process in the second half of 2010 Therefore, Greenwood expects the dollar to remain dominant almost by default I also review the recent rally in the gold price and suggest that the outlook is still positive Investor demand for gold has been buoyed by the creation of exchangetraded funds They now hold over 2,000 tonnes, and could easily expand to levels matching Bundesbank holdings (3,400 tonnes) The production... wants the major central banks to take stronger actions to promote money growth and a recovery of asset prices in order to strengthen bank capital He does not want the banks to improve their capital ratios by shrinking their balance sheets He believes that such actions will only impede the recovery of the global economy and set the stage for more capital erosion through loan losses Andrew Sheng offers the. .. policy, corporate governance, climate change, and communications The goal of this compendium is to provide original insights from a diverse mixture of independent analysts and forecasters The contributors include the founder of the Hong Kong currency board, the former prime minister of Peru, the former research director of the central bank of Botswana, the founder of a Mexican fund management group, economic... into the distant future No matter how things turn out, this book will give you a frame of reference, and a perspective, that goes beyond the current received wisdom We would like to express our gratitude to the members of the staff of David Hale Global Economics Sandy Abraham provided creative inspiration and enthusiasm, and is responsible for editing the graphic presentations throughout the book Sandy . Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data What’s next? : unconventional wisdom on the future of the world economy / edited by David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale. p. cm. Includes bibliographical. class="bi x0 y0 w0 h0" alt="" WHAT’S NEXT? WHAT’S NEXT? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy Edited by David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale Chapter 21, "The Future of Corporate. bibliographical references and index. ISBN 97 8-0 -3 0 0-1 703 1-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Economic history—21st century. 2. Economic forecasting. I. Hale, David. II. Hale, Lyric Hughes. HC59.3.W47 2011 330.9—dc22 2010053413