[...]... 1.0% 10.0% Anhui Conch 30.0% 0.0% Shanshui Cement China Resources Cement Asia Cement Southern China CNBM Asia Cement 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% CNBM 1.0% 0.0% West China Cement Shanshui Cement West China Cement China Resources Cement Shanshui Cement China Resources Cement Source: Company data, BOCI Research This document may not be distributed in or into the PRC 27 China Cement Sector Industrials – Basic Materials... Figure 51 Market Share Comparisons (based on 2010 cement capacities) Eastern China Central China Anhui Conch 15.0% Asia Cement 10.0% 5.0% Anhui Conch 15.0% CNBM Asia Cement 0.0% West China Cement 5.0% West China Cement 20.0% CNBM Asia Cement 10.0% 0.0% China Resources Cement Shanshui Cement Shanshui Cement China Resources Cement SW and NW China CNBM Northern China Anhui Conch 4.0% Anhui Conch 2.0% 3.0%... Anhui Conch Shanshui Cement West China Cement 2008 2009 2010 2011E CNBM China Resources Cement Source: Company data, BOCI Research This document may not be distributed in or into the PRC 26 China Cement Sector Industrials – Basic Materials Michelle Leung 25 May 2011 Figure 49 Net Profit Growth Forecasts Net profit growth Anhui Conch CNBM Shanshui Cement China Resources Cement West China Cement 2010 6,163... CNBM Shanshui Cement China Resources Cement West China Cement 2009 118 113 38 19 5 2010 137 153 49 33 10 2011E 2012E 2103E CAGR 170 212 235 20% 202 238 257 19% 60 66 74 15% 50 64 69 28% 14 16 18 22% Ranking 3 4 5 1 2 Source: Company data, BOCI Research Figure 46 Cement Capacity Forecasts Cement capacity Anhui Conch CNBM Shanshui Cement China Resources Cement West China Cement 2009 110 160 48 29 8.5 2010... Qinghai, Yunnan Source: Digital Cement, BOCI Research Figure 42 Regional Scores N China NE China E China S China SW China NW China Average production/ enterprise 4 5 1 2 3 6 1Q11 1Q11 cement FAI 1Q11 urban housing FAI growth FAI growth growth 2 6 5 5 5 6 6 3 2 1 4 3 3 1 1 4 2 4 1Q11 new project Total growth score 4 21 5 26 1 13 3 13 6 14 2 18 Source: Digital Cement, BOCI Research This document may... threat from high coal prices and power costs Loss of market share to other aggressive cement producers Source: BOCI Research estimates Figure 3 Capacity by Region 2010 Exports 6% W China 5% 2011E E China 38% S China 21% W China 12% Central China 30% S China 20% Exports 9% E China 31% Central China 28% Source: Company data, BOCI Research This document may not be distributed in or into the PRC 31 Anhui Conch.. .China Cement Sector Industrials – Basic Materials Michelle Leung 25 May 2011 Figure 17 Average Cement Production per Enterprise 250 200 150 100 50 0 N China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner NE China Liaoning Jilin Heilongjian E China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong S China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi Hainan SW China Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunan NW China Shaanxi... 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -100% N China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner Mongolia NE China Liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang E China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong S China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi Hainan SW China Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunan Tibet NW China Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang -80% Source: Digital Cement, BOCI Research Figure 35 Anhui’s FAI Growth... PRC 23 China Cement Sector Industrials – Basic Materials Michelle Leung 25 May 2011 Figure 41 Matrix for Preferred Province Selection National N China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner Mongolia NE China Liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang E China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong S China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi Hainan SW China Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Tibet NW China. .. (RHS) Source: Digital Cement, BOCI Research Figure 28 New Dry Processing Capacity Ratio in China 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Digital Cement, BOCI Research Figure 29 Market Share Concentration Rates in China % 70 60 50 40 30 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Top 10 Top 20 Source: Digital Cement, BOCI Research As . 12.16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 8 1-8 5 8 6-9 0 9 1-9 5 9 6-0 0 0 1-0 5 0 6-1 0 1 1-1 5 % Implying a sharp decline in production growth in 201 1-1 5E E Source: Digital Cement, BOCI Research Figure 10. BOCI Forecasts of Cement Demand. Digital Cement, BOCI Research SW China cement price: 1% CAGR in 199 7-2 010 and up 10% from 1997 to May 2011 NW China cement price: 1% CAGR in 199 7-2 010 and up 21% from 1997 to May 2011 China. Figure 16. Eastern China Capacity Growth Contracted in 200 3-1 0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Northern China NE China Eastern China Southern China SW China NW China Central China FY10 FY09 FY03 Output