© 2003 by CRC Press LLC Part Two Environment Quality © 2003 by CRC Press LLC Environmental Conflict and Agricultural Intensification in India Gurneeta Vasudeva CONTENTS Environmental Scarcity and Conflict Population Growth and Food Supply The Rural–Urban Divide Environmental Degradation Pressures on Land and Water Resources River-Water Sharing Disputes Conclusions and Recommendations Human Resource Development Institutional Mechanisms Public–Private Partnerships Equitable Access to Land and Water Resources Technological Interventions An Integrated Approach References ENVIRONMENTAL SCARCITY AND CONFLICT Over the past decade, in an effort to define a multidisciplinary approach to global, regional and local environmental problems that threaten the social and economic well-being of people, considerable research has been conducted on the links among environment, impoverishment and conflict. The thesis, broadly stated, is that envi - ronmental degradation often undercuts economic potential and human well-being, which, in turn, helps fuel violence, civil strife and political tensions (Figure 9.1). Various studies have analyzed causal links between environmental change and con- flict with a focus on developing countries, which are most likely to exhibit environ- mental conflict in the future as a result of the growing pressure on the already scarce natural resources (see de Soysa, I. and Gleditsch, N.P., 1999; Vest, G.D. and Leitz - mann, K.M., 1999; Homer-Dixon, T.F., Boutwell, J.H. and Rathjens, G.W., 1993). 9 © 2003 by CRC Press LLC The obstacles to developing a conceptual clarity regarding conflict induced by environmental degradation and resource scarcity are quite formidable. Among the elusive elements in this process is an acceptable definition of conflict itself. Ashok Swain has defined conflict as a pervasive social process that occurs at all levels — between states, between groups and between the state and a group (Swain, A., 1996). While most definitions include a component of struggle, strife or collision, Wallensteen has defined conflict “as a social situation in which a min - imum of two parties strive at the same time to acquire the same set of scarce resources”(Wallensteen, P., 1988). Agricultural activities make up as much as 29% of the GDP in India, and as much as 60% of the population depends on the agricultural sector for livelihood. This chapter examines the factors that could create pressure on natural resources and hence, an adverse impact on agricultural productivity and access to food, thereby accentuating the large social and economic inequities and deprivation that already exist in society and have a potential for triggering violent conflict. Currently, there is concern that activities related to agriculture may be affecting the environment and, conversely, inefficient utilization and management of natural resources could have an adverse impact on agricultural productivity. In intensive production systems — which have become increasingly important in developing coun - tries such as India — the primary environmental concerns arise from land degradation, deforestation, contamination of groundwater due to excessive use of chemical fertil - izers and pesticides, and loss in genetic diversity as a result of monoculture. Similarly, unsustainable agricultural practices resulting in reduced production from agricultural land have, in several cases, led to displacement of small and marginal farmers, forcing them to migrate in search of alternative means for survival. In cases where survival is constrained by environmentally degraded areas and bur - geoning pressures on urban areas within the country, migration has transcended national boundaries and led to political tensions, as has been observed in the case of the large-scale migration from Bangladesh to Assam and to the other northeastern states in India. In recent years, the phenomenon of “environmental refugees,” a label that describes human migration as a result of natural resource scarcities, has assumed FIGURE 9.1 Causal Links between environmental change and conflict. Physical Capital Human Capital Social Capital Environmental stress Agricultural production Economic growth Migration Social segmentation Violent conflict Political & Ethnic Strife © 2003 by CRC Press LLC great significance globally, largely due to the several instances of social, political and economic conflicts as a result of displaced populations. Essam El-Hinnawi, who virtually coined the term in his 1985 UNEP report defines environmental refugees as “… those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat tempo - rarily or permanently because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or anthropogenic) that jeopardized their existence and /or seriously affected the quality of their life.” Wherever the environmental migrants settle, they are likely to create compe- tition for resources and employment with the native population and communities. The northeastern states in India, in particular, have attracted large-scale migration from Bangladesh, largely due to the formers’ low population densities and fertile agricultural land, even though the economic conditions in these states may not be ideal. These factors have contributed to providing cheap unskilled labor and agricultural land as a means of livelihood for the migrants. In many instances, the migrants have benefited at the cost of the development of the original inhab - itants, thereby leading to clashes between the natives and immigrants, with consequent adverse impacts on the economic and political stability of the states in question. Pressure on natural resources is also likely to spur conflict between com- peting stakeholders and groups. For example, where multiple states within the country are dependent on the same river systems, there have been problems in reconciling their interests, paving the way for interstate disputes over sharing river water. In some instances, these disputes have led to direct violence that necessitated judicial intervention. It must be noted however, that resource and environmental problems are quite different for the array of agro-ecological conditions that exist in India, creating pressures on the land, water and forest resources in varying degrees. The diversity of the conditions also implies that there cannot be a fixed model that can be imposed to address unsustainable agricultural practices and resolution of conflicts that arise. Instead, the process of innovation and the capacity to adapt in adverse conditions must be made sustainable through an enabling policy environment. Reform measures designed to reap economic benefits, for instance, are also likely to have direct or indirect positive impacts on the environment, but many distortions in the policy framework persist, due to political economy constraints whereby perhaps small but important groups of people derive benefits from the prevailing conditions. The outcome of policy interventions also depends on institutional arrangements, owner - ship and control of natural resources, which are discussed in the concluding section of this chapter. POPULATION GROWTH AND FOOD SUPPLY The rate of growth in agricultural production in India is expected to exceed its population growth rate by as much as three times during the Ninth Five Year Plan (1997–2002), and this trend is likely to continue in the future as well. Still, 200 million Indians are reported to be undernourished, despite the fact that India ranks near the top agricultural exporters, with agriculture composing almost 18% of the © 2003 by CRC Press LLC country’s total exports. Exports of about 5 mt or $1.4 billion worth of cereals and pulses, the staple foods of the Indian diet, were reported in 1998 (FAI, 1999). On reviewing the relationship between food deprivation and population growth, it is observed that, while most undernourished people live in countries with the highest population growth rates, there is no support for the proposition that high population growth or density are associated with slower rates of per capita food production growth (Figure 9.2) (Dyson, T., 1996). It has been observed, on the other hand, that food deprivation is caused, not as a result of inadequate food production, but because people’s claim to food is disrupted as a result of lack of assets or resources to grow or retain enough of their harvests to meet their needs. In the state of Kerala, for instance, which has a population density of 747 persons/sq km, compared with the national average of 267 per - sons/sq km, there have been significant improvements in indicators of poverty and hunger, compared with the north Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, which have far lower populations densities (401 persons/sq km and 369 persons/sq km respectively) and significantly higher agricultural productivity as a result of the Green Revolution technologies. Serious questions have been raised about the impact of the Green Revolution in reducing poverty and hunger. While the onset of the Green Revolution since the 1970s has led to significant increases in crop yields, there have been both persuasive supporters and strong critics of the effectiveness of this development strategy as a tool to alleviate hunger and poverty. Since the early years of the Green Revolution, it has been observed that technologies that required purchased inputs such as improved seeds, fertilizers and pesticides inherently favored the rich farmers, and the landless and marginal farmers lacked the resources to FIGURE 9.2 Population and per capita cereal production trends in India (FAO, 2000). -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year Population growth rate Cereal production/capita Population © 2003 by CRC Press LLC benefit from this capital-intensive technology. Moreover, the Green Revolution has focused on improving productivity of just two or three crops, thereby leading to a loss in genetic diversity, as well as ignoring the productivity of crops such as pulses and legumes grown by small farmers. The new technologies, in any case, are designed to work on good-quality farmland with irrigation and are inappropriate for marginal lands. The increase in productivity of the larger and richer farmers and the consequent reduction in prices has, in fact, contributed to the economic hardships for the smaller and poorer farmers. Although, in recent years, many poor farmers have adopted modern varieties of crops and technologies that have increased productivity and yields, the delay has been attributed largely to the inefficiencies in institutional mechanisms for financial and technical assistance. It is also commonly believed that the benefits from a technological transformation can be realized only if it is driven by the demands of the local farmers themselves. Therefore, it may be said that food deprivation is not a direct consequence of population growth but, like population growth, is a consequence of social and economic conditions. Hence, addressing the inequities in terms of access to and control over assets such as natural resources, social capital, human knowledge, physical infrastructure and financial resources is critical to achieving a balance between population growth and food security. THE RURAL–URBAN DIVIDE It is indeed paradoxical that, even though the overall food grain production (which is the mainstay of the rural economy in India) has doubled from 108.5 mt in 1970 to 212 mt in 1998, the rural–urban gap has not declined. The rural–urban poverty headcount ratio has increased from 1.09 in 1987 to 1.23 in 1997 (IFAD, 2001). The rural population also continues to be more vulnerable to the consequences of envi - ronmental and economic downturns, with consequent spillover effects in the urban areas. This trend is in evidence globally. According to the Rural Poverty Report 2001 of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, 75% of the world’s 1.2 billion poor are rural, will remain so for several decades, and the Indian sub - continent accounts for 44% of this population. It is observed that, even though rural welfare indicators have improved, the rural–urban gap in terms of access to safe drinking water, adequate sanitation and health services remains inequitable and inefficient. Where resources have to be divided between urban and rural spending, the outlay per capita is normally less in rural areas, even though the initial levels of development and well-being are much lower in rural than in urban areas. Therefore, while urban-oriented policies have made urban living more attractive, they have also led to higher congestion costs and attracted migration from rural areas. Investments in rural infrastructure and technologies for reduction in the cost of cultivating staple crops in rural areas, for instance, could benefit both the farmers and urban food buyers, who spend most of their income on food staples. Studies have revealed no corresponding urban output, which, if expanded or made cheaper, benefits the rural poor on a comparable scale (IFAD, 2000). © 2003 by CRC Press LLC Development of rural areas is therefore critical to the challenge of food security and prevention of conflict arising from pressures on natural resources. In this regard, some of the key challenges that need to be addressed are (1) equitable and efficient allocation of natural resources such as water and land and higher shares, access and control of these assets by the rural people, (2) widening market access for rural farm and nonfarm products by enhancing skills, technological innovation, improved infra - structure and institutions, and (3) participatory and decentralized management approach and innovative financing mechanisms. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION To analyze the social and economic impacts of agricultural activities, it is essential to examine the extent of environmental impacts of agricultural intensification that could lead to a decline in crop yields and reduction in overall productivity due to higher level of inputs to maintain yields. The adverse environmental impacts of agricultural intensification are amply borne out by the widespread instances of severe land degradation and loss in soil nutrients, which have resulted in instances of decline in rice and wheat yields in certain areas since the 1990s — a contrast to the dramatic increases in crop productivity in the early stages of the Green Revolution. Adverse environmental impacts have also led to the conversion of agricultural land to lower- value uses and sometimes temporary or permanent abandonment of plots, thereby exacerbating the social and economic conditions of the small and marginal farmers. In India, the main types of land degradation can be categorized as soil erosion from wind and water; chemical degradation in the form of loss of nutrients, soil salinization, sodicity and acidification; and physical degradation in the form of waterlogging, compaction and flooding. As much as 63% of the total land resource is affected by degradation in varying degrees, however, not all of the land degradation results from agricultural practices and may also be determined by factors such as geological formation, rainfall, susceptibility to erosion and vegetation. In irrigated areas, the major environmental problems are associated with inten- sive use of water coupled with poor drainage, thereby leading to waterlogged soils and a rise in the water table. In India, as much as 21.7 mha or 7.1 % of the land area is affected by salinity and waterlogging, with the resultant loss in crop produc - tivity estimated at 9.7 mt annually. Studies carried out by the International Rice Research Institute have revealed that perennial flooding of rice paddies and contin - uous rice culture have led to build-up of micronutrient deficiency, soil toxicity and reduction in nitrogen-carrying capacity of the soil, thereby necessitating increased fertilizer consumption to increase yields from existing paddy fields. Excessive and inappropriate use of pesticides has also led to deterioration in the quality of water in several areas, posing a health hazard for the population. An increasing reliance on a few carefully bred crop varieties contributes to a loss in genetic diversity and to a common vulnerability to the same pest and to susceptibility to weather-related risks. In some cases where large areas have been planted with the same wheat or rice varieties, widespread losses have occurred because of the outbreak of a single pest or disease. The loss in traditional varieties could also lead to a reduction in the genetic pool available for plant breeding (Hazell, P. and Lutz, E., 1998). © 2003 by CRC Press LLC In rain-fed areas (which constitute as much as 67% of the total agricultural area), land degradation has been attributed largely to high population densities and wide - spread incidence of poverty and hence pressures on natural resources. Until recently, natural resources were abundant in these areas, and, once used, farmers could allow these resources to recover through rotation and shifting cultivation. Environmental problems associated with rain-fed agriculture also include conversion of primary forest to agricultural area, thereby resulting in loss of biodiversity and exposure of fragile lands; expansion into steep hillsides, causing soil erosion and lowland flood - ing; degradation of watershed areas with downstream siltation of dams and irrigation systems; increased flooding and shortened fallows resulting in loss of soil nutrients and organic matter; and increasing pressure on common property resources such as woodlands and grazing areas. PRESSURES ON LAND AND WATER RESOURCES Composing 15% of the world’s population but only 2.4% of the earth’s land area, India has undertaken a path of agricultural intensification that is highly dependent on its land and water resources. The following paragraphs examine the constraints on land and water availability for agricultural purposes and instances of conflict as a result of competition for water resources. India already has a high proportion of its land under cultivation. In 1998, 180.6 mha or 61% of the total land area in India was reported to be under cultivation. Furthermore, the land area per capita has declined from 0.48 ha in 1951 to 0.15 ha in 2000 (FAI, 1999). Factors such as excessively unsuitable terrain, poor soil quality, and unreliable rainfall have precluded cultivation in areas that are not already under cultivation. While increasing levels in population and the concomitant demand for food production may create the need for expanding the natural resource base, this would be neither possible on a significant scale nor desirable due to environmental considerations. Any further expansion would occur only at the cost of despoiling environmentally fragile areas and without sustainable levels of yields. Juxtaposed against these limits to the expansion of cropland is the specter of inroads made on agricultural land by nonagricultural uses. While, historically, more potential cropland has been converted to agricultural land than urbanization has taken away, it is likely that the current unprecedented increases in levels of urban - ization may constitute a potential threat to the loss of agricultural production as a result of loss in agricultural land. In 1970, only 20% of the population or 110 million people lived in urban areas. In 2000, this number had grown to 288 million, accounting for 28% of the population, and this is expected to increase at an annual rate of about 15% to 499 million or almost 46% of the total population by 2020. While data on urban absorption of agricultural land is scarce, factors such as type of land converted to urban uses and the final per capita urban land area would influence the actual extent of cropland losses as a result of urbanization. It is estimated that, based on current densities of urban areas, approximately 0.62 mha will be converted to urban use by 2020. Data for cereal production for the period 1980–1990 and 1990–2000 reveals a decline in the growth rate from 3.3% to 2.1% respectively. Similarly, cereal yields © 2003 by CRC Press LLC have declined from 3.4% in the period 1980–90 to 2.3% in the period 1990–2000 (FAI, 1999) Therefore withdrawal of land from agriculture for urban uses may contribute to further reductions in productivity in the future, with limited potential to compensate for these losses by expanding into other arable areas. This may also result in spillover effects in the form of further reduction in the size of landholdings and, in some cases, even landlessness for small farmers and hence displacement and migration of populations to environmentally fragile areas as well as to urban areas in search of alternative means of livelihood. In addition to the concern relating to the availability of sufficient cropland to meet agricultural demand, the accessibility of water would perhaps pose the most serious threat to the future of agricultural productivity. While technological progress would continue to make it possible to increase agricultural production with relatively modest expansion of land in agricultural use, this, however, has not been the expe - rience to date with water consumption and major improvements in water efficiency are unlikely in the medium term. With agriculture contributing roughly 29% of India’s GDP and production from irrigated land composing 56% of total agricultural production, a large percentage of India’s GDP can be viewed as closely linked to the availability of water. Groundwater has been increasingly observed to be the preferred choice of farmers for irrigating their land due to a higher degree of control, adequacy and reliability. In 1996/97, ground - water accounted for 62% of the net irrigated area (FAI, 1999). The overuse of ground- water has emerged as a growing concern because aquifers are being continuously depleted, with pumping rates exceeding the rate of natural recharge. As against a critical level of 80%, the level of exploitation is over 98% in the state of Punjab and in other states such as Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan. The problem is becoming increasing serious. In the southern India state of Tamil Nadu, for example, excessive pumping is estimated to have reduced water levels by as much as 25–30 meters in one decade. Implications of diminishing availability of groundwater for sustainable agri - culture assumes significance when it is observed that the states currently facing the highest levels of groundwater exploitation are also India’s agriculturally most impor - tant. Overexploitation of groundwater not only lowers its quality by rendering it saline, but also puts fresh water beyond the reach of farmers who depend on traditional technologies for drawing water and cannot make their wells any deeper. Even though the Himalayan rivers carry a substantial amount of water annually, these rivers have been unable to meet the water demand arising from the agricultural practices of the Green Revolution in the northern states of India. The average amount of fresh water available per capita has declined throughout India from 5277 cubic meters (m 3 ) in 1955 to 2464 m 3 in 1990 and is estimated to further decline to1496 m 3 in 2025 (Swain, A., 1998). The country also suffers from uneven distribution of water resources among the various regions. As a result of the seasonal monsoon rainfall, 80% of the rivers’ annual runoff occurs in the 4 months from June to September. In addition, the amount of rainfall varies considerably, as a result of which, parts of the country such as Rajasthan in the west may receive as little as 0.2 m of annual rainfall, and Meghalaya in the east may receive as much as 11m. Floods and droughts are recurrances as a result of variation in the rainfall, thereby exacerbating the adverse impacts on agricultural production. The rivers in peninsular India are largely rain-fed and dry up during the © 2003 by CRC Press LLC summer. Most parts of the Deccan plateau, which receives marginal rainfall, are increas- ingly dependent on river storage or tanks for irrigation. With the exception of the water- abundant eastern region and the coastal strip along the Western Ghat Mountains, most parts of the country face increasing shortages of water. Irrigation development continues to dominate the strategy for economic planning and agricultural growth, with more than $4.6 billion earmarked for irrigation schemes. Irrigation has brought significant benefits by allowing crops to be grown year round, thus enabling crop diversification and yields. It has also been the essential prerequisite for expansion of the use of chemical fertilizers and high yielding vari - eties (HYVs) of wheat and rice. However, with the total irrigation potential estimated at 113.5 mha, and 73.2 mha already under irrigation, the development of irrigation schemes is fast approaching its limits. Moreover, with the total water demand estimated to be almost equal to water availability by 2025 and the demand for water in the industrial and domestic sectors rising at the expense of the agriculture sector, increasing the irrigated output per unit of land and water consumption would be essential to meet the food demand. RIVER-WATER SHARING DISPUTES River-water sharing disputes create the potential for many new social and political conflicts, as has been observed in both the northern and southern states in India. In Punjab for instance, with a cropping intensity of about 189.5% in 1996/97, the irrigation requirements are estimated at 43.55 maf. With growing pressure on agri - cultural production, it has become increasingly difficult for Punjab to accept water transfer to the states of Haryana and Rajasthan from the Indus basin, which meets the irrigation needs in Punjab. The issue has remained largely unresolved and has even been ethnicized for political gains. Similarly, even though the states of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi contain 21.5%, 6.1% and 0.4% of the catchment area of the Yamuna River respectively, they are the major users of its waters and have been involved in disputes with other north Indian states such as Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan regarding the sharing of the Yamuna River’s water. In the south, the sharing of the Cauvery River has been a contentious issue between the two water-starved states Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Even though 75% of the catchment area of the Cauvery River lies within Karnataka, traditionally its utilization has been small in Karnataka, and the farmers in Tamil Nadu have used as much as 75% of the river water. However, in the past couple of decades, Karnataka has undertaken several irrigation projects along the tributaries to meet its growing agricultural needs, thereby reducing the amount of water available to Tamil Nadu. The escalation of the dispute between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka regarding the sharing of the river water led to a supreme court decision to set up a Cauvery Waters Disputes Tribunal in 1990, providing interim relief to Tamil Nadu by instructing Karnataka to release water on a weekly basis in the summer months. This decision was subsequently countered by an ordinance issued by the government of Karnataka, despite the supreme court’s continued support for the jurisdiction of the tribunal. The ensuing gridlock resulted in the eruption of violence and arson in Karnataka and its eviction of many Tamils. The violence subsequently spread to Tamil Nadu, [...]... and 20 00 and average food production has kept pace with the increases in population Also, between 1900 and 20 00, irrigated area has increased from about 50 million hectares to 25 0 million hectares (Mha) (Gleick, 20 00) India and China together have more than 36% of the world population to feed, with more than 21 % of the world population living in South Asia Although world food- grain production has increased... improvement in feeding people has occurred in Asia (particularly India) as a result of the Green Revolution and increased water use for irrigation In spite of these gains, 830 million people remain undernourished – 45% in India and China alone These data clearly indicate that food production alone cannot solve the local and regional food security needs In the year 20 00, more than 1 billion ha of the world. .. on the environmental quality of land and water resources While as much as 95% of the world s population growth is expected in the developing countries, this is where, by the year 20 50, 87% of the world s population is expected to live Industrial and agricultural use will add enormous stress on the available land and water resources, while also attempting to maintain environmental quality An increasing... concern The use of agrochemicals in South Asia is widespread and intensive in areas where cropping density is high A better understanding of land- and water-resource degradation from intensive agriculture is needed to assure food security to the fastest growing population in the region IMPACT OF INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE AND IRRIGATION MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY OF INDIA’S SOIL AND WATER... 21 0 million tons in 20 00 20 01 (Gleick, 20 00) This increase in grain production has been higher than the population growth rate in the 20 th century and India is a successful model in the world community for providing food security to its massive © 20 03 by CRC Press LLC population This increase in agricultural productivity has also helped India increase its per capita income at a rate of 2% per year to... RESOURCES India and the rest of South Asia are blessed with land and water as the two most important natural resources for their agriculture and economic development The demand for these resources will continue to escalate to provide food security to its growing population In the global context, India is feeding 16% of the world population with only 2. 4% of the world s geographical area The per capita... Minimizing Salinity One of the best-known BMPs to correct the salinity or alkalinity problem is the reclamation of sodic and saline soils through chemical and biological amelioration Sodic soils can be easily reclaimed using gypsum, and solubilizing calcium and sodium salts and flushing them out of the active root zone These methods have been found to be extremely successful in India and Pakistan Other... cultivatable land still further in the years to come Demands on finite water resources are increasing and, with the increase in population, contamination of water resources is on the rise Also, increase in the population in South Asia means intensification of agricultural production systems to feed the growing population This means demand for irrigation water and agricultural chemicals will increase to © 20 03... western and southern India and support cotton, sugarcane, vegetables and other cereal crops The laetrite soils are traditionally poor soils that are prone to soil erosion and nutrient depletion Desert soils, located in the western part of India, are poor in soil quality, and are prone to wind erosion The hills and tarai soils are mostly in the northern and northeastern parts of the country and are characterized... agricultural land to urban and industrial development is the major concern in China, Indonesia and the United States Total cropland area per capita in the world has decreased from 0.31 ha per person in 1983 to 0 .25 ha per person in 20 00 (Gleick, 20 00) Because total area under cropland per person is decreasing, agricultural production systems are becoming more intensive to grow much more food on the same . production trends in India (FAO, 20 00). -1 8 -1 6 -1 4 -1 2 -1 0 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 19 62 1964 1966 1968 1970 19 72 1974 1976 1978 1980 19 82 1984 1986 1988 1990 19 92 1994 1996 1998 Year Population. availability by 20 25 and the demand for water in the industrial and domestic sectors rising at the expense of the agriculture sector, increasing the irrigated output per unit of land and water consumption. 19 23 Asia Withdrawal 414.0 689 1 ,22 2 1,784 2, 245 3,104 Consumption 322 .0 528 9 52 1, 324 1,603 1,971 Total Withdrawal 579 1,065 1,989 3 ,21 4 3, 927 5,137 Consumption 415 704 1 .24 3 1,918 2, 329 2, 818 Source: