1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) CHNG 9 Gii thiu v Nhng Bin ng Kinh T macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 1 Mc tiêu ca chng Mc tiêu ca chng         !" #$%&'(%)$#*+ ,- ./012 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 2 Tng trng GDP Tng trng GDP thc t  M thc t  M -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % thay i so v i 4 quý trc ó Tc  tng trng trung bình = 3.5% CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 3 Thi gian Thi gian  34 56778*6- 9$.:  ;4 6/-2<=- $>% Nn kinh t s vn hành rt khác khi giá c cng nhc. CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 4 Theo Lý thuyt Kinh t V mô C in, Theo Lý thuyt Kinh t V mô C in, ?0$@A-%BCDEF  G67%&$%&H9)$>I<*,4 J %I687$= J    ;9$.>( ?  8  8  FK$=$)8 6%< $)7%&L  G7.67=6$> HM8N97O9)$#*( L CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 5 Khi giá c là cng nhc Khi giá c là cng nhc P67%&7Q*(= >(8 "I>$=I<  , ?    F  , ?  F  +18,(% 9$ .  :  L 2 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 6 Mô hình Tng cung Tng cu Mô hình Tng cung Tng cu  R= !)) $>,,1'( $#A-I)$=))7N* ,S$>)  T9-67%&$%& $>%)  T9.) %) CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 7 Tng cu Tng cu  U%VK1H -7%&L  W(A !X3YXG. %B98 0'(=7O9)$B6 AZO9)G17%&[ L  \%B]^D]_*#7O9) =)BL CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 8 Phng trình S lng Phng trình S lng vi vai trò Tng Cu vi vai trò Tng Cu  [`\%B a87S*%B!1 7%&"   b   4 ? Y F  b   $"  b]Y  b17%9#L  W>T$>.    8 *%B!9O=1 Hc7>   4 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 9 ng AD dc xung ng AD dc xung Gd. -7 6+ ) ? Y F8 +9 6 0   >(L   X3 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 10 S dch chuyn ca ng AD S dch chuyn ca ng AD Gd . >9# $%V X3  *6L   X3 ] X3 _ CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 11 Tng Cung trong Dài Hn Tng Cung trong Dài Hn  ;7`%BC4 [867%&$%&H9)$>I< +1  8 =       7-67%& 98 -67%&$"e7. )$%&'()L  /[(2"f7T* ISc7T*AL 3 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 12 Tng Cung trong Dài Hn Tng Cung trong Dài Hn  ;7`%BC4 [867%&$%&H9)$>I< +1   G67%&-( *( =-8 N9$%V?ZgXGF7 h$-4 8 =       CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 13 Tng Cung trong Dài Hn Tng Cung trong Dài Hn   ZgXG  U%V ZgXG h$- -67%& (L CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 14 Hiu ng dài hn ca s gia tng Hiu ng dài hn ca s gia tng M M   X3 ] X3 _ ZgXG  Gd.  >9# $%V X3  *6L  ]  _ [8 $97d -P P9A6 7%& 9 $L CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 15 Tng Cung trong Ngn Hn Tng Cung trong Ngn Hn  [)86- L  [`V?I=\%BiD]_8 06$>SM67- =-$>% P  P*j7kIM -67%&j7k -$"L  3N98$%V ?GgXGF 7S4 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 16 ng tng cung ngn hn ng tng cung ngn hn    GgXG U%V GgXG7 S4 R-1$> =- $>%8  *I< -%V "L CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 17 Hiu ng ngn hn ca s gia tng Hiu ng ngn hn ca s gia tng M M   X3 ] X3 _ Pd . P [ 67 -8P P)6 7%&dL  GgXG  _  ] 4 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 18 T ngn hn n dài hn T ngn hn n dài hn [V86<7A/7 2Ll$"80md96n   >   <   = d 6  $ [+IS 8 ) !V8 -m  !"#$%&!'  !"#$%&!' !()*+,$'  !()*+,$'  ,"#/0 ,"#/0 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 19 Hiu ng SR Hiu ng SR & LR & LR ca ca ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆ M M > 0 > 0   X3 ] X3 _ ZgXG   GgXG  _  _ Xb+IS I$ X o \ ob+IS   pd  \b+IS  CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 20 Sc!!! 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%<$)-.*L ?k$%&M7$123*$F \,(01 IT7& 4  [V)T7667%&s(8$q9 7%B7AL  \ +7A78$*$kd 7%BL  ;H9$>I6 %V$kr **66,6L\ *)7N*B$#0*6 *,.9A9L ?\01 "7& 76*,6LF CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 23 Nghiên cu tình hung: Nghiên cu tình hung: Các cú sc du m 1970s Các cú sc du m 1970s  Ud]it^4 uvw\1T 67%&rL  5d ]]xd ]itC yExd ]ita ]yxd ]itz  Gd9.70 1I<!0$=$) *,6T6L 5 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 24 ]  GgXG ]   X3 ZgXG   _ \01> 9#$%V GgXG7A A8)6 7%&76L X o l "A 018 V6 m6 )9# (L _  GgXG _ Nghiên cu tình hung: Nghiên cu tình hung: Các cú sc du m 1970s Các cú sc du m 1970s X CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 25 Nghiên cu tình hung: Nghiên cu tình hung: Các cú sc du m 1970s Các cú sc du m 1970s ;-$%& $.01 4 { 7* ↑ { 67%& ↓ { T*↑ P$"7H !e*(``L 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-CPI (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 26 Nghiên cu tình hung: Nghiên cu tình hung: Các cú sc du m 1970s Các cú sc du m 1970s \1d ]it^4 l) $*(e8 7d8+9 =017 ||| 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-CPI (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 27 Nghiên cu tình hung: Nghiên cu tình hung: Các cú sc du m 1980s Các cú sc du m 1980s ]iE^4 }69=0 1"7&D D 60 $#. L ;% ! I87 *T *64 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-CPI (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 28 Chính sách n nh Chính sách n nh  $>f4 $=, S6,AM. I)$=)L  W,(4 G'(,$# 17-.01 IT7&4 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 29 n nh sn lng n nh sn lng vi chính sách tin t vi chính sách tin t ]  GgXG ]   X3 ] o _  GgXG _ X  _ ZgXG  \01 IT7&> 9# )$) $#oL 6 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 30 n nh sn lng n nh sn lng vi chính sách tin t vi chính sách tin t ]    X3 ] o _  GgXG _ X \  _ ZgXG  X3 _ [9Ap ,- 019 ISd L )H674  1s B8%  9 !<- (L CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 31 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng ]L 34 67867%& 77 <-A87O9) $#$%&*(L ;46-801" #$q967%&7r- AL _L [4 = !s$#*+,I) $=) CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 32 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng CL U%V11L aL U%Vh$-8I< !67%&*(=  +1- *(= 6L zL U%V7S8 I<!67-<-$> %L CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 33 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng yL \01$1 +9I)$=53v7 L tL p "#1$>) IS,L . 1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) CHNG 9 Gii thiu v Nhng Bin ng Kinh T macro. gian  34 56778*6- 9$.:  ;4 6/-2<=- $>% Nn kinh t s vn hành rt khác khi giá c cng nhc. CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 4 Theo Lý thuyt Kinh t V mô C. Fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 4 Theo Lý thuyt Kinh t V mô C in, Theo Lý thuyt Kinh t V mô C in, ?0$@A-%BCDEF  G67%&$%&H9)$>I<*,4 J