182 3. The absolute use of the present tense to be completely determined by circumstances that already exist at t 0 .The nonprogressive present therefore represents the future situation as absolutely certain to actualize, i. e. as inevitable. It implies that the speaker feels that he has no control over the actualization of the post-present situation. The sun sets at 9.36 tomorrow. The plane leaves from Heathrow. Do that and you lose your pocket money! (By representing the post-present situation as if it were a present one, the speaker makes the threat more forceful than he would do if he used the future tense, which would merely express a prediction.) However, a nonprogressive present tense form cannot be used if the post-pres- ent situation is of a kind that is not felt to be completely pre-determined. *It snows tomorrow. (The weather is not felt to be pre-determined.) *John falls down the stairs next week. (Unacceptable unless there is a present plan to make John fall down the stairs next week which is felt to be a plan that cannot fail.) 3.8.2 The following are some typical cases in which a nonprogressive present form is used to refer to a post-present situation which is felt to be pre-deter- mined and certain: (a) The nonprogressive present is used in statements about the calendar. Next year Whit Sunday falls on 11 May. [Above shows the first lunar month for 2004.] Chinese New Year falls on January 22, 2004. (www) Tuesday of next week is 21 st August. (b) The nonprogressive present is used to express that a post-present situation is the result of a definite plan, agreement or arrangement which already exists at t 0 and which is regarded as unalterable. [We have reached an agreement with the landlord.] He moves out in at the begin- ning of the week and we move in during the weekend. The wedding is on Saturday May 24th at 11:30 am, [so we suggest out of town guests arrive on Friday night and sleep in.] (www) Most of the academic people that have attended the conference leave tonight. The chairman retires at the end of the year. What do we do after the performance? (said e. g. by a theatre usher inquiring about their duties) The use of the nonprogressive present in timetable announcements (where the subject is mostly inanimate) can be treated as belonging here: II. The present tense as part of the ‘Special Present Time-sphere System’ 183 Today flight 106 takes off at 11.45 p.m. [During the summer 2003 the gallery will host an exhibition of pen and ink drawings by New York artist Elisabeth Condon.] The show opens on Friday, June 20 th at 6:30 p.m. [The artist will give a slide show and lecture at 7:30 p.m.] (www) Compare: [Reminder to people planning on going to the FFA basketball tournament:] the bus leaves at 1:30 tomorrow. (www) (This is a simple statement of fact: the post-present situation is seen as unalterable, inevitable, because absolutely predetermined.) The bus will leave at 1:30 tomorrow. (This is merely a prediction: the speaker just says what he believes will happen.) (c) The nonprogressive present is used if the post-present actualization of the situation is felt to be certain because it results from a habitual or regular pattern that already exists at t 0 . The delivery van calls again tomorrow. (The use of the nonprogressive present tense is fine, e. g. if the van always comes on the same day every week and ‘tomor- row’ is such a day.) Dinner is served at seven. [See that you’re on time.] (This can be said by someone who has not received specific information about the time of dinner today but knows that it is standard routine that dinner is served at seven every day.) [There is no need to hurry.] The gates of the park only open in about fifty minutes. (The speaker can say this confidently if the gates always open at the same time.) Where do I find John? (This can be uttered by a speaker who wants to find John and who indirectly asks for help Ϫ ‘Where will I find John?’ Ϫ by asking a question meaning ‘Where does one find John whenever one wants him?’ or ‘Where does one find John {on a day like this / at this time of the day / etc.}?’) In most of these examples the reference is to a regular pattern which results from a timetable repeating itself. The same is true of the following: The bus leaves at 4 (which is in half an hour) Ϫ it always does. Class 4b has geography in room 341 on Wednesdays. (refers to a number of time- tabled situations rather than to a specific event) 3.9 The progressive present referring to an arranged future situation When a post-present situation is referred to by the progressive present (i. e. the progressive form of the present tense), it is represented as resulting from a present plan or arrangement. 184 3. The absolute use of the present tense I’m staying at the Gardners’ next week. Next they’re playing a cello sonata by Bach. We’re working late tomorrow evening. He’s going to Iraq next week. This use of the progressive differs from the ‘arranged future’ use of the nonpro- gressive present (referred to in 3.8.2) in that it implies that the referent of the subject NP has control over (the actualization of) the situation. This means that the progressive present implies less certainty than the nonprogressive present: it refers to a present plan which may possibly still be altered, while the nonpro- gressive present denotes a plan or arrangement that is regarded as unalterable. It also means that the progressive present suggests that it is the referent of the subject NP who is responsible for the plan or arrangement, whereas the nonprogressive present suggests that it is somebody else or circumstances. I’m visiting them tonight. (ϭ my personal planning) I visit them tonight. (ϭ It has been arranged (by some authority) for me to visit them tonight.) Margaret is dining out tonight. ? Margaret dines out tonight. (This sentence sounds strange in isolation because it suggests that someone else has decided that Margaret should dine out tonight.) Margaret dines out with the French ambassador tonight. (This is more readily contex- tualizable, because the engagement can more easily be seen as somehow having been made for Margaret, if not literally by another person then by the circumstances of, say, her position as foreign secretary.) 3.10 Constraints on the use of the present tense with post-present time reference There are four constraints on the use of the present tense with post-present time refer- ence. Informally, these are: (1) It must be clear from the context that the reference is to the future and not the present. (2) The nonprogressive present cannot be used for post-present situations that are not predetermined (*It rains tomorrow). (3) The progressive present can only refer to post-present situations that are inten- tional and have a human agent (The dog’s going to the vet tomorrow means ‘I’m taking the dog to the vet tomorrow’). (4) There may be constraints on the interpretation of a present tense form referring to the future when that form is used in combination with an epistemic modal adverb II. The present tense as part of the ‘Special Present Time-sphere System’ 185 like perhaps, possibly, probably, etc. In such cases it may be unclear whether the judge- ment implicit in the adverb is attributable to the subject referent or to the speaker. 3.10.1 Constraint 1: Since the basic meaning of the present tense is location of a situation time at t 0 , its use with post-present reference is only acceptable if it is clear from a time adverbial, from the context or from pragmatic knowl- edge that the situation referred to should be interpreted as lying in the post- present. Compare: We go to the local pub. (The only interpretation out of context is in terms of a present habit.) Tomorrow we go to the local pub. (Post-present reference is imposed by tomorrow.) John is travelling to Greece. (can be interpreted as referring to the present or as forming part of a present arrangement concerning the future) John is travelling to Greece next month. (post-present reference only) We’re having roast beef for lunch. (Unless uttered during lunch, this sentence can only refer to the post-present. In that case the post-present reference is pragmatically clear, since the hearer can see that the speaker is not actually having lunch.) When the progressive present is used with post-present reference and the post- present time of actualization is not specified by a temporal adverbial or by the context, the reference is normally to the near future. (said while Mr Snowdon is getting up in the morning) Mr Snowdon is leaving for New York. (suggests ‘today’) (said during the tea break) I’m taking Cheryl out to the cinema. (suggests ‘today’, or ‘within the next week or so’, not ‘in two years’ time’) Is anyone coming to dinner? This ‘near future’ interpretation follows from the Gricean Maxim of Relation (relevance): in general, the present (ϭ the speaker’s here-and-now) is more relevant to the speaker than the past, pre-present or post-present. It follows that the recent past and the near future are also felt to be more relevant than the remote past or distant future. So, if there is no explicit indication of a distant future time, a present tense form referring to the post-present will be interpreted as referring to the immediate or near future rather than to a more distant time. 3.10.2 Constraint 2: The use of the nonprogressive present to refer to a post-present situation is only possible with reference to a situation that can be represented as completely pre-determined by some (often unnamed) authority 186 3. The absolute use of the present tense or (often unspecified) circumstances. It is especially common with verbs of directional or inchoative movement. The plane takes off in fifteen minutes. The delegation {leaves for / arrives in} Paris tonight. The state verb be also allows this use if there is pre-determination: We’re in Vienna tonight. (pre-determined by arrangement or scheduling) I am {busy / engaged / at the office} all day tomorrow. (idem) Our daughter is here next week. (idem) Our daughter is eighteen next week. (not scheduled, but still pre-determined because it means ‘Our daughter turns eighteen next week’.) *I’m in good spirits all day tomorrow. (not pre-determinable, for pragmatic reasons) *The boy is as tall as his father in a few years’ time. (The speaker may be convinced of this, but the sentence remains a prediction. The situation is not pre-determined.) Other state verbs are not normally used this way because what they refer to cannot easily be seen as pre-determined: I {will know / *know} the answer tomorrow. [You should buy it now.] Tomorrow it {will cost / *costs} a fifth more. We {will have / *have} fresh bread this afternoon. [The delivery van comes around midday.] However, there may be contexts in which states referred to by verbs other than be can be treated as pre-determined. In those cases the nonprogressive present tense can be used. For example, if you look at the table of ‘prices over months’ in a travel brochure, and see that in May a particular holiday apartment costs g 400 and in June it costs g 600, you can easily say Next month it costs 50 % more. 3.10.3 Constraint 3: Because of its ‘personal arrangement’ meaning, the use of a progressive present with post-present time reference is restricted to senten- ces expressing an intentional situation performed by an agent (i. e. sentences describing an action or a process under the control of an agent). I think he {is leaving / *is coughing / *is sneezing / is going to cough / is going to sneeze} in a minute. The bomb {will explode / *is exploding / is going to explode} any minute now. These miners are going down at ten. *The sun is going down at ten. He {is opening a new shop / *is dying in an accident} next week. *It’s raining tomorrow morning. II. The present tense as part of the ‘Special Present Time-sphere System’ 187 The (normally human) agent need not always be the subject of the sentence. Sometimes it is implicit. [We have a lot of fun events coming up.] First of all, Fall Recruitment is starting soon. [We are hoping to add many new faces to the sorority.] (www) (This is roughly equivalent to: ‘We are starting Fall Recruitment soon’.) Concert and Chamber Choirs, be reminded that rehearsals are beginning this Satur- day for you all. (www) 3.10.4 Constraint 4: Because of the special meaning of a present tense with post-present time reference, there may be constraints on the interpretation of such a present tense form in combination with adverbs like perhaps, possibly, maybe, probably, etc. Such epistemic modal adverbs express the degree to which the speaker is sure of the truth of what he is saying. However, these adverbs have a certain scope, and it is not always clear what is in that scope and what is not. This may lead to ambiguity (or at least vagueness) between various interpretations. A sentence like Jim’s probably leaving tomorrow can be interpreted in four ways: (a) One reading of Jim’s probably leaving tomorrow is ‘I am not sure Jim {intends / has arranged} to leave tomorrow, but he probably {does / has}.’ (ϭ ‘Jim probably has the intention of leaving tomorrow’. Probably here expresses the speaker’s lack of certainty concerning the existence of an arrangement or intention on Jim’s part.) (b) Another interpretation of Jim’s probably leaving tomorrow is ‘Jim hasn’t fully decided whether he will leave tomorrow, but he says he will probably decide to do so.’ (ϭ ‘Jim has half-arranged, or half-intends, to leave tomor- row, but nothing is definitive yet. However, he is likely to confirm the arrangement or intention.’ Probably here expresses Jim’s lack of certainty as to whether he really intends to leave tomorrow.) (c) A third reading of Jim’s probably leaving tomorrow is ‘Jim {intends / has arranged} to leave tomorrow, and I think he probably will.’ (There is no doubt that there is a present intention or arrangement on Jim’s part, but fulfilment is uncertain. Probably expresses the speaker’s expectation that Jim will carry out the intention or arrangement.) (d) Finally, Jim’s probably leaving tomorrow can also mean ‘Jim {intends / has arranged} to leave tomorrow, and he says he probably will.’ (There is no doubt that there is a present intention or arrangement on Jim’s part, but fulfilment is uncertain. Probably expresses Jim’s expectation to carry out the intention or arrangement.) In (a) and (c), probably expresses the speaker’s assessment of likelihood, while in (b) and (d) it expresses the subject referent’s assessment. In (a) and (b), the likelihood concerns the existence of a present ‘pre-determining factor’ (in this 188 3. The absolute use of the present tense case: intention or arrangement); in (c) and (d) it concerns the post-present actualization of the pre-determined situation. However, not all four inter- pretations (a)Ϫ(d) are always available: Perhaps the train leaves at five. (The only possible reading is (a), i. e. ‘It is possible that the train is scheduled to leave at five’. Reading (c) Ϫ ‘The train is scheduled to leave at five and I think it will perhaps do so.’ Ϫ is not available because perhaps has scope over the entire sentence (including the verb expressing the scheduling). The other two readings do not arise because the referent of the subject is nonhuman: a train cannot have the intention or expectation to do something.) Maybe he’s leaving tomorrow. (Maybe has wide scope. This rules out readings (c) and (d). Reading (a) Ϫ ‘It is possible that he has arranged to leave tomorrow’ Ϫ is quite plausible, whereas reading (b) Ϫ ‘He has half-arranged, or half-intends, to leave tomorrow, but nothing is definitive yet’ Ϫ is not normally expressed this way. (It can be expressed by He’s maybe leaving tomorrow, but many people consider this on the periphery of grammatical acceptability.)) ? He’s perhaps leaving tomorrow. (For those who find this sentence acceptable, it allows reading (a) Ϫ ‘I think it is possible that he has arranged to leave tomorrow’ Ϫ as well as reading (b) Ϫ ‘He says that perhaps he’s leaving tomorrow’, i. e. ‘He has it half in mind to leave tomorrow’. Readings (c) and (d) Ϫ ‘He has arranged to leave tomorrow and {I think / he thinks} it is possible that he will actually do so’ Ϫ are not readily available out of context, but are presumably possible in a suitable context.) I’m probably leaving tomorrow. (It is difficult to find a context in which reading (a) Ϫ ‘I am not sure I {intend / have arranged} to leave tomorrow, but I probably {do / have}’ Ϫ makes sense, for the speaker knows better than anyone else whether or not he has arranged something. Out of context, the only plausible readings are therefore (b) Ϫ ‘I haven’t fully decided yet’ Ϫ and (c) Ϫ ‘I have decided, but I’m not sure about the actualization’. Reading (d) here coincides with (c) because the referent of the subject is also the speaker.) 3.11 The present tense substituting for a ‘continuative perfect’ The head clause of a since-adverbial referring to a ‘period up to t 0 ’ is usually in the present perfect. But occasional examples can be found in which the the present tense is used. In that case there is special focus on the present continuation of the situation that leads up to now. As we will see in 12.11, a since-adverbial referring to a ‘period up to t 0 ’ nor- mally combines with a present perfect in the head clause. This present perfect . scope over the entire sentence (including the verb expressing the scheduling). The other two readings do not arise because the referent of the subject is nonhuman: a train cannot have the intention. about their duties) The use of the nonprogressive present in timetable announcements (where the subject is mostly inanimate) can be treated as belonging here: II. The present tense as part of the. this time of the day / etc.}?’) In most of these examples the reference is to a regular pattern which results from a timetable repeating itself. The same is true of the following: The bus leaves