Transition Tree 101 Again, Chris provided the insights and perspective of the people who would be my audience. I did, in fact, achieve the objective of the presentation. Many of the people who attended the session stayed over to ask questions. Many of them have since gone on to study TOC, some with me, and some through other channels. As a result of the presentation, I was asked to facilitate a few meetings of the local IMA (Institute of Management Accountants) breakfast club, which was a special interest group studying activity-based costing. I also used the transition tree as a learning tool for myself. After the session, I reviewed the tree and identified where I thought the presentation could have been improved. Either by cutting injections because the effects they were meant to cause had already existed, or by adding clarity to others, to ensure smoother transitions. This process has helped me do a Figure 6.11 SL1019ch06frame Page 101 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. 102 Thinking for a Change better job when speaking, because I use each event and the transition tree associated with it as a personal learning opportunity. Please note the direction of the arrows when you read this tree (Figure 6.12). The bottom of the tree is at the top of the page. Get in the habit of looking for the direction of the arrows rather than where entities are located physically on a page or computer screen. As you read through the tree, practice your use of the categories of legitimate reservation. Wherever you have a question with an entity or relationship, make the changes that are necessary for the relationships to be valid. What assumptions must I have made, that perhaps aren’t artic- ulated? What assumptions are you making when you find yourself in disagreement? What must have existed, that may not be spelled out clearly on the tree, that enabled the presentation to be a success? SL1019ch06frame Page 102 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. Transition Tree 103 Figure 6.12a SL1019ch06frame Page 103 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. 104 Thinking for a Change Figure 6.12b SL1019ch06frame Page 104 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. Transition Tree 105 Figure 6.12c SL1019ch06frame Page 105 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. 106 Thinking for a Change Figure 6.12d SL1019ch06frame Page 106 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. Transition Tree 107 Figure 6.12e SL1019ch06frame Page 107 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. 108 Thinking for a Change Figure 6.13 SL1019ch06frame Page 108 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:33 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. 109 Chapter 7 Future Reality Tree You choose, you live the consequences. Every yes, every no, maybe, creates the school you call your personal experience. Richard Bach, 1994 Every single decision we make, every single action we take, will change something in the future. It doesn’t matter whether that future is just a moment away or whether that future is years from now. The change might be small enough that it’s barely noticeable, or so large that an entire civilization is affected. As its name suggests, the future reality tree is a tool for visualizing and predicting the future. But, you may say, the future is unpredictable! True. A butterfly flapping its wings in China may cause entire weather patterns to change in North America six months from now. Yet don’t we attempt to predict the future with some degree of accuracy every day? You set your alarm clock before you go to bed at night, predicting that it will ring at the appointed time and predicting that as a result, you will wake up in time to do whatever it is you will do that day. You decide to hire a particular job candidate because you predict that she will fit into the company culture and perform the tasks of the job with a high degree of proficiency. You decide not to hire a particular job candidate because you believe that bringing that person up to speed on your technology will take an inordinate amount of time. Your company develops a new marketing strategy, predicting that as the strategy is implemented, market share will increase, along with profitability. You SL1019ch07frame Page 109 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:34 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. 110 Thinking for a Change bring a gift home for your spouse, predicting that he or she will be happy as a result. You put your young child in “time out” for 10 minutes, predicting that as a result, she’ll stop the inappropriate behavior. Professors predict that students will learn as a result of implementing their lesson plans. Sales professionals predict they will “close” business when they deploy their sales skills and plans. A manager is afraid to enforce a required new behavior in his plant, because he fears the workers will retaliate. A child is afraid to raise her hand in class because she thinks she’ll look stupid and her friends will make fun of her. Yes, we are predicting the future all the time. Sometimes, we do so quite inaccurately. Always we do so quite incompletely. All too often, if we’d have just thought about it a little bit, we could have predicted better — more accurately and more completely. The future reality tree is a tool that helps us do so, and has the important added benefit of helping us learn more about our changing systems as we go. Future reality trees are sufficient cause diagrams that contain four distinctive parts, which are labeled in Figure 7.1. A. Injections are always entry points to the tree (see Chapter 4). Injections are entities that do not exist in the system’s current reality, and are distinguished from other entities by their squared corners. Why the term injection ? Think of getting a shot in the arm. The idea is that once you’ve received that injection, the illness will be cured, and the ugly symptoms will disappear. Once an injection (idea) is implemented in reality, the effects predicted should emerge as a result. B. Entities that do currently exist in the system’s reality. In a future reality tree, this type of entity will usually be entry points and is typically not found in the body of the tree. C. Entities that do not yet exist in the system. When entities that currently exist (B) are combined with injections (A), the (C) entities will (at least they’re predicted to) exist in the future. D. Reinforcing loops are often placed in future reality trees, as a means to create patterns of sustained and continuous improvement. • The key to creating the desired future reality is implementing the injections. When to Use the Future Reality Tree Any time it’s important to put some thought into the web of effect–cause–effect connections among one or more ideas and the predictable SL1019ch07frame Page 110 Friday, June 23, 2006 9:34 AM Copyright © 1999 CRC Press, LLC. [...]... accomplish? The order in which you establish them depends on the situation It’s OK for any of the three to be your starting point, but don’t move to step two until you’ve defined all three elements that comprise the basis for the tree I often find it helpful to give myself the opportunity to “tell the story” before I worry about specifically articulating the entities that comprise the basis for the tree... that they want to see as a result of the relationship Do not compr omise your objectives! People often lower their sights because they assume, before they even allow themselves to explore a little further, that they won’t be able to achieve what they’d really like to achieve Don’t let your “can’t do” preconceptions block you from envisioning great things Use the future reality tree to create the vision... branch r eservation The other type of “yes, but” is an obstacle Obstacles are objections that describe reasons why it will be difficult to make the injection a part of reality When these types of objections surface, jot them down and put them aside until after you have completed the future reality tree Then, use the prerequisite tree to determine how to remove them as obstacles to your desired future... good idea to try to understand what the effects of that decision will be on that department, other departments, customers, employees, suppliers, stockholders, and other stakeholders • When that which you want to implement has the likelihood of requiring the organization’s resources, such as money, people, time, or technology • When a government wants to add, change, or remove a law, and the possibility... you have used the current reality tree to identify a core problem, you have created a model of the interrelated, undesirable aspects of a system The current reality tree is describing the system (or at least the part of the system) that you would rather live without The future reality tree is used to describe the system that you do want So, you must verbalize the entities that will, in the future reality,... you and write down their yes, buts You will then have the opportunity to examine what you’ve been told as you proceed with the following steps 1 Compare the list of potential undesirable consequences (con’s) of the injection developed in step one of the tree Given the injections, entities, and causal relationships developed in the tree, are any of them no longer relevant? Strike these from your list... possibility exists that the law could have effects on other aspects of the community • When a team wants to put together a cohesive, clear vision of the future • When a colleague has an idea that you think is a lousy one, and you want to communicate your concerns in a constructive, nonthreatening way The Process The future reality tree process consists of three main steps 1 Define the basis for the tree a Identify... I’m expecting, I then move on to the discipline prescribed by the process This allows me the freedom to derive the benefits from both free-form thinking and technical correctness a Identify an initial injection (idea) What is it that you are going to consider implementing? Remember that the injection is an entity and should be written as a complete sentence Writing the injection in the present tense... already making you feel good List the objectives (pr o’s) of the injection People come up with new ideas and then believe in them because they trust that good things will happen once their ideas turn into reality What are the predicted positive effects of the injection? What does Figure 7.2 the person (or group) who has the idea believe will happen as a result of having the idea implemented? Even if you... opportunity to translate what the person has told you in terms of the categories of legitimate reservation Once you’ve got your list, make sure to verbalize the concer ns as entities, stated in the pr esent tense • At the printed circuit board company, the Vice President of Engineering feared that the demand for quick-turn prototype orders would swamp the design engineers The Vice President of Manufacturing . opportunity. Please note the direction of the arrows when you read this tree (Figure 6.12). The bottom of the tree is at the top of the page. Get in the habit of looking for the direction of the arrows rather than. improvement. • The key to creating the desired future reality is implementing the injections. When to Use the Future Reality Tree Any time it’s important to put some thought into the web of effect–cause–effect. the market, because it would be offering one-stop shopping to those clients, who would choose to keep their business with the company that worked with them to perfect the design. The management