RECOVERING FROM EARTHQUAKES 165 regions. 26 Small-scale production technologies are proving increasingly success- ful in building material manufacture in developing regions. 27 Choice of building materials for use in reconstruction should largely reflect the policy of preference for local production. Designs for new construction should be determined by the materials available rather than trying to introduce new forms and materials. Designs incorporating brick infill walls may be inappropriate in areas where stone is normally used and plentifully available, for example. Reconstruction designs should largely respect the existing traditional building forms, materials and architectural style of the region. As far as possible, as argued in Section 5.5, control over the design and construction of buildings should be left to the owners and the member of the community that use them. 5.7 Turning Reconstruction into Future Protection In the aftermath of the earthquake, the replacement of destroyed buildings and the reconstruction of a damaged community present a significant opportunity to make the new community safer against a possible repetition of the disaster some time in the future. After a major disaster, the replacement of possibly large sections of a town and the rehabilitation of a significant percentage of the townspeople give an opportunity to bring about changes that will reduce the impact of the next earthquake. Changes are possible after a disaster where they would not be possible before- hand. Funds are available, everyone is aware of the hazard and generally agreed on the need for protection, the political climate is sympathetic and there are polit- ical opportunities to push through change where it is needed. But the window of political opportunity and the period of availability of financial assistance are usu- ally short. The key to making maximum use of the opportunity is pre-planning and an awareness of how best to achieve mitigation within reconstruction activ- ities. The post-disaster emergency period is not usually the best time to make crucial decisions concerning the long-term future of a city, and yet experience has shown that many reconstructions are planned rapidly, immediately after the event, with little studied consideration of what contributes most to future safety. There are at least five important considerations that affect reconstruction plan- ning and the policies that are likely to be most effective in bringing about future safety: 28 1. The return period of the earthquake. 2. Pre-existing plans for the future development of the city – including seismic risk studies for future protection. 26 As practised in the reconstruction programmes of Iran (1990), Yemen (1982) and Ecuador (1987). 27 Spence and Cook (1983), UNCHS (1990). 28 Aysan et al. (1989). 166 EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION 3. Profile of the communities affected, including the economic basis and cultural preferences of the various groups affected. 4. The scale of the disaster. 5. The resources available for reconstruction. Of these only the last two factors are unknown before the earthquake. Prepared- ness planning should establish the longer term aims of a mitigation programme in general, so that in the event of a major earthquake, the reconstruction can be channelled towards well-established mitigation aims rather than having to improvise a new strategy plan. The way the reconstruction is carried out can have a major effect on the future safety in addition to what is reconstructed – the process is as important as the end product. Social and economic recovery of the affected communi- ties and the reduction of the overall vulnerability of the city to the impact of future earthquakes require integrated and comprehensive policies covering a wide range of activities. A major reconstruction offers the opportunity to intro- duce comprehensive mitigation measures into the ongoing processes of planning, administration and construction. It also provides the impetus to channel financial resources where they are needed and prompts a political willingness to implement policies. Political pressures for rapid recovery should take second place to systematic studies of long-term needs. The emphasis should be placed on creating the eco- nomic building blocks, the cultural continuity and the spatial framework for future development rather than on construction showpieces. Institutionalising reforms in the building industry and construction process will be more important in the long run than building an instant earthquake-proof town. 5.7.1 Reconstruction after Earthquakes with Long Return Periods It is obviously important to capitalise on the opportunities, funds and incentives present after an earthquake to improve the building stock and restore public con- fidence. However, unless the opportunity is also taken to instigate much longer term protection measures and to carry the lessons beyond the areas immediately affected by the earthquake, stronger reconstruction may not be a very effective way of reducing future earthquake losses. The risk of future earthquake losses varies considerably from place to place. Return periods for earthquakes striking the same place twice are usually considerably longer than the lifetimes of indi- vidual buildings, and in areas of long return period, the construction of stronger buildings has a sense of “closing the stable door after the horse has bolted”. The return periods of high intensities from shallow-depth, near-field events in most sites across the world can usually be counted in centuries. In eastern Turkey, an RECOVERING FROM EARTHQUAKES 167 area of relatively high seismicity, for example, the area affected twice by a dam- aging earthquake ( I  VII) within 100 years is only 2% of the high-risk areas. In southern Italy the return period of damaging earthquakes at any particular loca- tion within the Apennine region is less than once in 350 years. Most earthquakes occur in areas which have not recently experienced a destructive event. In most locations in the world, where high intensities have a long return period, using a reconstruction programme to make a place safer against a future earthquake should mean planning long-term strategic developments for the city rather than short-term upgrading. Long-term strategies that should be considered include: • Using the reconstruction to maximise long-term economic development for the region. • Controlling future urban land-use patterns in the reconstruction to minimise risk. • Structuring the morphology, street layout and landownership in the reconstruc- tion to improve urban safety and density of development. The immediate reaction of most city authorities after a disaster is to rebuild damaged buildings in strong, earthquake-resistant construction. This is a natural reaction, but its effect may be largely symbolic and psychologically reassuring rather than an effective method of reducing the losses from future earthquakes. Major monuments may last hundreds of years, but ordinary residential building stock in a city may have a lifetime of 30 to 100 years depending on pressures of development, housing markets and fashions of housing style. 5.7.2 Historical Reconstruction and Present-day Risk The end results of the reconstruction-into-protection process are of special impor- tance to the study of mitigation as are the examples of recent reconstruction policy and their intended results. It is possible to look at examples of towns that were rebuilt after historical earthquakes that are now, many years later, facing up to the threat of a repetition of a destructive event. (See the boxes on the following pages.) Studies of urban seismic risk in Noto in western Sicily, destroyed, relo- cated and rebuilt after a massive earthquake in 1693, and of Bursa in western Turkey, repeatedly damaged by large-magnitude earthquakes and considerably rebuilt after the destructive event in 1855, and also of Quetta, in northern Pak- istan, reconstructed after the earthquake of 1935, give insights into the long-term nature of earthquake protection from decisions implemented in the aftermath. The case study of Mexico following the destructive earthquake of 1985, provides a twentieth-century comparison. 168 EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION Reconstruction case study Noto, Sicily, an eighteenth-century reconstruction The city of Noto today. The older stone masonry palazzi of the historic centre (back- ground) are being abandoned in favour of new reinforced concrete villas seen in the foreground After the earthquake that destroyed their city and killed an estimated 3000 people in 1693, the citizens raised considerable sums to rebuild their city safely. 29 After extensive public debate, the decision was finally made to relocate the city from its ruined site to a new location over 10 kilometres away where it could be laid out along the latest principles of city planning. The new city layout, along wide streets and punctuated by a series of Baroque architectural monuments, provided an urban framework within which the townspeople could rebuild their family houses. Most rebuilt in the grand style, building large and strong Italianate palazzi in dressed stone to replace the vulnerable timber-framed or rubble houses of the ancient town. Now, 300 years on, the town council is again facing up to the threat of a return of a destructive earthquake, forecast with a return period of between 200 and 1000 years. Apart from the civic and religious monuments, less than 1% of the building stock now at risk was built as part of that eighteenth-century reconstruction. 30 The rest of the buildings were built in subsequent centuries, replacing the older buildings as they deteriorated, infilling vacant blocks and 29 Tobriner (1982). 30 Coburn et al. (1984b). RECOVERING FROM EARTHQUAKES 169 expanding onto areas surrounding the city. And the few remaining eighteenth- century palazzi, so much more robust and earthquake resistant than the buildings they originally replaced, are now, after years of gradual deterioration, among the most vulnerable of the existing buildings – in 1997, part of the dome of Noto’s cathedral suddenly collapsed without assistance from any earth tremors. The policies of the eighteenth-century reconstruction for which today’s popula- tion have cause to be grateful in making the city safer against the next earthquake are the strategic decisions on relocation, replanning and restructuring the local economy made at the time. For example: • The relocation of the city away from its ancient defensive site onto a site closer to the rich agricultural plains and a secure water supply ensured the prosperity of the townspeople subsequently leading to a continual upgrading of building quality. • The choice of site on a firm, travertine hilltop – one of the flattest rock sites in the region – reduced the potential for landslide and slope failure that claimed many lives in the old city in the 1693 earthquake. • The rationalisation of the city’s street layout with wider avenues and lower densities of housing has made the streetscape safer and more accessible to emergency services, than if it had been rebuilt on the old site. Reconstruction case study Bursa, western Turkey, a nineteenth-century reconstruction The extending suburbs of Bursa in 1985. The direction of expansion can have a big effect on the city’s future earthquake risk 170 EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION The earthquake of 1855 that damaged the historical city of Bursa, once the capital of the Ottoman Empire, destroyed revered monuments, including sev- eral of the main trading bazaars, and caused serious fires that consumed sections of the residential areas in the city. The reconstruction that followed was chiefly funded from Istanbul, the nation’s capital, and consisted of wide- scale restoration of the monuments and a resettlement of the population. 31 Many feared another earthquake, even stronger, and it is reported that morale among the townspeople was low. The protection measures included the sepa- ration of houses and the use of masonry instead of timber frame for buildings where possible. Tall minarets were demolished as a hazard to the population. Rocks were cleared from the slopes above the city to reduce the risk of future rockfalls. For the city of Bursa today, again affected recently by the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, hazard analysis shows that there is a relatively high level of seismic hazard in the area. A ‘seismic gap’ close to the city has been identified by seismologists, which may indicate the likely location of a large earthquake in the near future. 32 Detailed seismic risk analysis of the modern city shows that the major contribution to the present-day seismic risk has little to do with the earlier reconstruction. There is little evidence in today’s city of the changes in the building stock that occurred following the earthquake. The buildings built before 1920 now constitute only 3% of the building stock. However, some of the reconstruction activities of 1855 have had an impact on the subsequent risk of the city. The population reduction after the 1855 earthquake reduced the regional importance of the town, which limited its nineteenth-century growth. This was reversed in the 1950s when a major industrialisation of the Mar- mara Sea region included car factories and major investment in Bursa, and caused a very rapid growth in the city. The city continues to grow at well above the average rate for Turkish cities and its centre has retained its his- torical siting on the firm rock hillside of Uluda ˘ g Mountain. Losses in future earthquakes will be highly influenced by the direction of expansion of the city suburbs in years to come. Expansion out onto the alluvial plains could mean significantly higher earthquake losses in a future earthquake than if the sub- urbs continue to expand along the rock mountainside or onto firmer ground nearby. 33 Building quality and engineering design will be important in reducing future losses but the main potential for earthquake losses will be the older twentieth-century buildings. The reconstruction project to make Bursa safer in 1855 had little concept of the massive changes that Bursa would undergo a century later. 31 Kuran (1986). 32 Coburn and Kuran (1985). 33 Akbar (1989). RECOVERING FROM EARTHQUAKES 171 Reconstruction case study Quetta, Pakistan, an early twentieth-century reconstruction Reinforced masonry is a resilient and cost-effective way of building in earthquake areas. ‘Quetta bond’, first developed after the 1935 earthquake in northern Pakistan, is still in use today Quetta is one of the major cities of Pakistan, with a key military significance. In 1935 it suffered a major earthquake which destroyed almost every building in the city and many surrounding villages and claimed an estimated 20 000 lives. 34 34 Jackson (1960). 172 EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION Because of its strategic position, relocation was considered impossible, and the seismologists’ report pointed out that as a result of the energy released in the earthquake of 1935, Quetta could expect to be safe from another such event for some time. 35 The national government ordered instead that the city should be rebuilt on earthquake-resistant principles, and a building code was drawn up, which was in many respects a forerunner of modern codes. 36 General regulations were specified governing the shape, height and spacing and materials of buildings. For important buildings, a system of steel frames with brick infill panels was specified; brick masonry buildings were to be built according to a new bonding system which incorporated concrete ring beams and vertical reinforcement (later known as Quetta bond). 37 For the poor, various systems using timber frameworks clad in lightweight materials were proposed, and the heavy mud roofs which had caused so many deaths were banned. Reinforced concrete frame construction was not recommended, as it required too high a level of skilled work. For a time this code was effectively enforced throughout the city. But the following decades brought war, then independence, then a mounting and still critical refugee problem. It was impossible to maintain the tight controls on build- ing which were possible in the years following the earthquake. Over the years since the earthquake the population has grown more than five-fold; pressure on space has made the demand for higher buildings irresistible; the timber required for the cheaper code buildings is now unobtainable; and the municipal engineer is too preoccupied with public health problems to be concerned with control of building standards. 38 Today the vast majority of the population live in unauthorised buildings of poor masonry materials, extremely vulnerable to earthquakes; even in the city centre buildings of reinforced concrete are constructed with no proper provision for earthquake forces. The recurrence of the 1935 event today would without any doubt be a disaster on a much larger scale than before. Quetta’s experience demonstrates that the introduction of a building code alone will not be sufficient to ensure future standards of protection; a continuing awareness of the earthquake risk, a degree of public control over building, and above all the economic means to pay for protection are all needed if protection is to be effective. 35 West (1935). 36 Quetta Municipal Building Code (1940). 37 Spence and Cook (1983). 38 Spence (1983). RECOVERING FROM EARTHQUAKES 173 Reconstruction case study Mexico City, a late twentieth-century reconstruction Strengthening of an existing reinforced concrete frame building by the addition of steel cross-bracing. One of a large number of public buildings in Mexico City strengthened this way following the 1985 earthquake Mexico City has suffered three damaging earthquakes since 1957, each with a level of ground motion strong enough to cause structural failure and collapse in some of its weaker buildings. The earthquake in 1985 resulted in the highest level of damage in the city’s history: over 600 buildings collapsed and more than 7000 people were killed. The high levels of damage were as much due to the poor quality of building in the 1960s and 1970s as they were to the fact that this was the strongest shaking to hit the city this century. The particular characteristics of the ground conditions in the city – built on a deep and ancient drained lake bed – make it likely to experience strong ground motions much more often than most other cities elsewhere. Any distant earthquake occurring up to 400 km away from the city may cause the saturated weak soils below the city to amplify the shaking. A damaging level of ground motion may be generated in this way every 174 EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION 15 years or so. The effects are, however, highly localised, and earthquake motions repeatedly damage the same area within the city – the area around the historic centre in which about 1.5 million of the 19 million inhabitants of the city live. In Mexico City, the short return period of the earthquake and the characteristic patterns and repetition of damage in the same locations make mitigation through reconstruction an important priority. This has been well appreciated by the authorities in charge of structuring the reconstruction. Mitigation measures taken after the earthquake included: • a large-scale programme of reinforcement of several hundred government buildings, schools, hospitals and other structures; • a massive public housing reconstruction programme which has gone far beyond replacement of earthquake-damaged buildings to upgrade poor-quality and vulnerable housing in the city centre; • a complete revision of the urban master plan for the city, including a rezoning of the city, proposals for decentralisation and reductions in allowable densities; • a programme of renovation, strengthening and reuse of historical buildings; • an urban upgrading programme to revitalise the city centre, to regenerate economic and environmental conditions and reduce vulnerability of the com- munities most at risk; • the revision of seismic building codes, enforcing a considerable increase in earthquake resistance of engineered buildings. 5.7.3 Exporting Improvements beyond the Reconstruction Area It is seismically probable that the areas most likely to be hit by the next earth- quake are areas outside those badly damaged in the last earthquake, but probably within the same seismic region. To make a significant impact in the losses from earthquakes in the region as a whole, the reconstruction can be used to promote mitigation activities outside the damaged areas, into zones where the likelihood of an earthquake is equally severe, but perhaps on a shorter timespan. The con- tradiction here is that, while the actual risk may be higher, the immediacy of earthquake danger is not so obvious to the general public in the areas which have not experienced an earthquake recently, and the incentives and opportuni- ties for the occupants of those areas to carry out disaster mitigation activities mayalsobemuchless. The fringes of earthquake-affected regions are often important and fruitful areas to instigate earthquake protection projects, both because the population tends to be very aware of the recent, nearby earthquake and because the areas are still under threat from future earthquakes. In general, any reconstruction aiming to instigate mitigation measures against future events should aim to export its lessons to areas with significant future risks. 39 39 The 1999 earthquake in Kocaeli Province, Turkey, triggered considerable earthquake mitigation activity in neighbouring Istanbul Province in the years immediately following. [...]... Press, Berkeley, CA 176 EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION Cuny, F., 1983 Disasters and Development, Oxford University Press, Oxford Davis, I., 1978 Shelter after Disaster, Oxford Polytechnic Press, Oxford NCEER, 1989 Proceedings of Conference on Reconstruction After Urban Earthquakes: An International Agenda to Achieve Safer Settlements in the 1990s, September 1989, National Centre for Earthquake Engineering (NCEER)... old and the disabled, and ensure that they are not forgotten in the protection activities Information Dissemination Information is a critical resource for earthquake protection and one of the most important roles for community groups is to obtain and disseminate the facts about earthquake risk, explaining the possibility and likely consequences of an earthquake and the actions that should be taken in... in earthquake areas can protect themselves against earthquake risk more effectively than anyone else can Earthquake risk depends on the houses they live in, the building stock in the vicinity and the environment all around them The ability to withstand the impact of an earthquake physically may STRATEGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION 181 be less critical than the ability to withstand the impact of an earthquake. .. urban form and protect utilities, is described in more detail in Section 6.4 Further Reading Aysan, Y and Oliver, P., 1987 Culture and Housing after Earthquakes: A Guide for Future Policy Making on Housing in Seismic Areas, Disaster Management Centre, Oxford Polytechnic, Headington, Oxford OX3 0BP, UK Comerio, M., 1998 Disaster Hits Home: New Policy for Urban Housing Recovery, University of California... providing information on which building types are safest to live in, methods of strengthening existing buildings or upgrading existing homes, directories of builders qualified in earthquake- resistant construction, earthquake safety issues in the home and workplace, and so on Publicity information, newsletters and publications may all form part of the community’s dissemination of earthquake protection information... through group effort or fundraising These structures should be demonstrably earthquake resistant and can be used as shelters or emergency headquarters in the event of an earthquake that could damage other structures in the community Community construction might also be employed for houses or agricultural buildings, with earthquakeresistant house buildings being built through communal effort for older or... 6.3.5 Emergency Planning, Employee Training and Earthquake Awareness A plan should be developed for the organisation detailing what should happen in the case of a major earthquake This should include what to do during the earthquake shaking; evacuation of the buildings after the earthquake has finished (or during the earthquake if easy and safe to do so); care for young, elderly, sick or infirm people; safe... concerned with the event of an earthquake and with the emergency which a damaging earthquake causes They have discussed how to act in that emergency, and how to prepare for it The following chapters are principally concerned with strategies for making the community safer in the event of an earthquake and defining the roles that various groups may play in bringing about earthquake protection These groups... the odds that appear acceptable for that outcome No building can ever be made entirely earthquake proof, but the probability of failure can be reduced to smaller and smaller levels by increasing the level of resistance designed for Very critical structures, like container vessels for nuclear power stations, have typical protection levels with a probability STRATEGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION 187 of less... vibration mountings for earthquake protection Liquids Pots and containers of hot liquids, or dangerous reagents or other hazardous materials, should be carefully checked to see that they are never in a position in which they would be unstable if shaken suddenly STRATEGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION 189 Escape Routes An important check is the exit routes for personnel in the event of an earthquake The corridors, . extending suburbs of Bursa in 19 85. The direction of expansion can have a big effect on the city’s future earthquake risk 170 EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION The earthquake of 1 855 that damaged the historical. activities. Information Dissemination Information is a critical resource for earthquake protection and one of the most important roles for community groups is to obtain and disseminate the facts about earthquake. pay for protection are all needed if protection is to be effective. 35 West (19 35) . 36 Quetta Municipal Building Code (1940). 37 Spence and Cook (1983). 38 Spence (1983). RECOVERING FROM EARTHQUAKES