11 Using the Adaptation Policy Framework to Assess Climate Risks and Response Measures in South Asia: The Case of Floods and Droughts in Bangladesh and India M MONIRUL QADER MIRZA IAN BURTON 11.1 INTRODUCTION South Asia is noted for climate and hydrological extremes such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and cyclones The climate of South Asia is highly influenced by the Southwest monsoon (see Chapter 1) More than three-quarters of the annual precipitation occurs in the monsoon months (June-September) The onset and departure of the monsoon is spatially highly variable, so the precipitation is also The failure of the monsoon and high summer temperatures leads to drought in many parts of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan In the Eastern Coast of India and in the coastal region of Bangladesh disastrous cyclones are regular visitors Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan cause disasters to life and property downstream, resulting in serious death tolls as well as the destruction of valuable forests, farms and costly mountain infrastructure In Nepal and Bhutan, 44 glacier lakes have been identified as potentially dangerous and which may result in GLOF (ICIMOD, 2001) In South Asia, particularly in the Himalayan region, the frequency of the occurrence of GLOF events increased in the second half of the 20th century The 1990s was the warmest decade of the last century and several extreme climate events occurred in the South Asia region In July of 1993, the Tistung station in Nepal registered 540 mm rain over a 24-hour period triggering a severe flood Severe droughts occurred over large regions in India and Pakistan in 2000 Bangladesh experienced the worst flood in recent history in 1998 which engulfed about 70% of the country It appears that extreme climate events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, causing more deaths, injury, disability and disease, economic and social impacts in the impoverished nations of South Asia (Table 11.1) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) concluded that there would be likely increases in intense precipitation events, droughts, tropical cyclone peak wind intensities and tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities in the future due to climate change Therefore, a dramatic increase in damage is also expected Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 280 Extreme Event Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Flood * On average 21.5% is inundated *Inundation may increase to 70% * During 1953-2000, 15,678 people died * On average 475 persons died per event * Extreme flood can cause economic damage of US$ to billion * 40 million area are flood vulnerable * Average flooding event affected 34 million people * 1,595 people/event * US$ 250 million economic loss/event * During 1983-2000, 5,935 people died * On average 330 people died per event * In July of 1993, one single flood event killed 1,336 people * Economic loss of 1993 flood was Rs 4,904 million * Dig Tsho GLOF in 1985, destroyed the Namche small hydropower project that built at the cost of US$ 1.5 million * Floods affect urban areas severely Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS Table 11.1 Extreme climate events and damages in selected countries in South Asia Table 11.1 Continued Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Drought * Past droughts typically affected 47% of the country * Affected 53% of the population * On average, loss crop in drought is equal to a flood * In 1979, drought created almost a famine like situation * 68% of the landmass is vulnerable to droughts * Severe droughts occur once in every years * The 1987 drought affected 60% of the cropped area and 285 million people * Droughts occur occasionally but effects are not significant * Droughts affect agriculture severely * In 2000-2001, due to drought GDP growth rate dropped to 2.6% as against targeted 5% Cyclone * Cyclones affect Bangladesh severely * The 1970 cyclone killed 250,000 people * The 1991 cyclone killed 138,000 people * India is one of the worst cyclone affected countries * In 1999, the Orissa super cyclone killed 10,000 people Not vulnerable Not vulnerable M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON Extreme Event 281 Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 282 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS Climate change poses a considerable risk to the future sustainable development of countries in South Asia How might the countries of the region best respond to these risks? The diverse character and widespread nature of the risks is described as above From these we have selected urban floods in Dhaka, Bangladesh and droughts in Gujarat, India as specific case studies We have selectively drawn upon some of the concepts and methods in the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) (Fig 11.2) (UNDP, 2004) and applied them to the two case studies In doing so we recognize that present adaptation falls short of what is necessary to prevent the further growth of vulnerability and damage potential There is in fact a current adaptation deficit in coping with climate variability and extremes even without taking into account the added risk associated with climate change (Burton, 2004) For this reason we recognize two types of adaptation Type I Adaptation refers to current adaptation strategy, policy, and measures without considering climate change Most of the adaptation measures are in practice belong to Type I Type II Adaptation is the additional adaptation that is required to cope with climate change Because climate change risks have still not been factored into many development decisions, and because awareness of the need for adaptation has still not been well incorporated into the work of development agencies/ministries in the developing countries and because adaptive capacity is lacking, not much Type II adaptation has taken place In this regard, the APF has been designed to help factor climate change risks in to development decisions in order to reduce vulnerability and facilitate sustainable development The APF approach is briefly described in Section 11.2 and some of the major concepts are described in Section 11.3 We then use the APF as a means of formulating an analysis in the two case studies (Section 11.4) Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges associated with the APF with particular reference to the two case studies Damage (in million Rs x 10) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 5-year moving average 1000 500 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 Year Fig 11.1 Damage due to floods/heavy rains in India during 1953-2000 Figures for 1999 and 2000 are tentative Data source: Singh, 2001 11.2 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK While substantial literature exists (Carter et al., 1994; IPCC, 2001; US Country Study Program, 1996; and Feenstra et al., 1998) regarding climate change impacts, information on Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 283 TP – MEASURING AND ENHANCING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TP – STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT adaptation policies and strategies is limited Burton et al (2002) commented that effective adaptation policy had to be responsive to a wide variety of economic, social, political, and environmental circumstances In order to so, a common framework of concepts, linked together in a flexible manner is required Therefore the development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) has been motivated by the lack of practical guidance on adaptation to climate change The driving concern underlying the APF was that discussions about climate change adaptation had not progressed significantly beyond the identification of possible adaptation measures (UNDP, 2004) The goal of the APF is to help narrow a wide range of policy options and measures into site-specific policies for particular climate risks Since the potential effects of climate change are pervasive, adaptation can include a wide range of responses and policies in all economic sectors and all regions (UNDP, 2001) The framework is intended to integrate short-, medium- and long-term threats to national economic development planning, as well as the relevant current policies and measures In designing the APF, coping with present climate variability is seen as an effective way to reduce long-term vulnerability to climate change Project scope and design Assessing current vulnerability Characterizing future climate risks TP – PROJECT SCOPE AND DESIGN TP – VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TP – CURRENT CLIMATE RISKS TP – FUTURE CLIMATE RISKS TP – SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Developing an adaptation strategy Continuing the adaptation process TP – ADAPTATION STRATEGY TP – CONTINUING ADAPTATION Fig 11.2 Outline of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) process (UNDP, 2004) Countries in South Asia have now conducted some studies (ADB Country Study Program, UNFCCC National Communications, US Country Study Program, etc.) under Stage I Adaptation (Box 11.1) However, it is recognized that more work is needed to progress to the next step and to prepare for Stage II Adaptation (Box 11.1), towards which the APF is specifically directed Over the long-term, this framework is critical for preparing the ground for detailed analysis in Stage III Adaptation (Box 11.1) The APF has five major steps (Fig 11.2) compared to the seven steps of the “first generation” of impact and vulnerability assessment method (Carter et al., 1994) The APF (UNDP, 2004) is more robust and flexible and its “first generation” counterpart and designed to fit present and future requirement in terms of climate variability and change The five-step analysis is supported by Technical Papers (TPs) which are: APF Project Scope and Design, Stakeholder Engagement in the Adaptation Process, Vulnerability Assessment for Climate Adaptation, Vulnerability Assessment for Climate Adaptation, Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 284 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS Box 11.1 Initial Guidance from the Conference of the Parties on Adaptation (Decision 11/CP.1) Stage I: “Planning, which includes studies of possible impacts of climate change to identify particularly vulnerable countries or regions and policy options for adaptation and appropriate capacity building” Stage II: “Measures, including further capacity building which may be taken to prepare for adaptation as envisaged in Article 4.1(e)” Stage III: “Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, including insurance and other adaptation measures as envisaged by articles 4.1(b) and 4.4” Assessing Current Climate Risks, Assessing Future Climate Risks, Socio-Economic Conditions, Measuring and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity, Formulation of an Adaptive Strategy and Continuing the Adaptation Process The APF and TPs can be downloaded from http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm 11.3 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION: A BRIEF SYNTHESIS 11.3.1 VULNERABILITY The concept of vulnerability has gone through a comprehensive evolution process in the last few decades Generally it is defined from three perspectives: natural hazard, climate change and variability and entitlement From a natural hazards perspective Blaikie et al (1994) defined vulnerability as “…the characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard (p.57)” It is focused on only human systems and three temporal situations in terms of natural extreme events that cause hazards are taken into account: pre-event and post-event and during the event The authors also argue that vulnerability “…is a measure of a person or group’s exposure to the effects of a natural hazard, including the degree to which they can recover from the impact of that event (p.57)” The exposure refers to physical, economic and human well-being and recovery is related to adaptive capacity and resiliency Kelly and Adger (2000) widened the definition of vulnerability as “…the ability or inability of individuals or social groupings to respond to, in the sense of cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being (p.300).” Their approach focuses on existing “wounds” (or prior damage), which might limit capacity to respond to stresses and are independent of future threats The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) broadened natural hazard perspective based definition by focusing on the future as well as incorporating natural systems in addition to human system It defines vulnerability as “…the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (p.18).” Many authors (e.g., Liverman, 1994; Adger and Kelly, 1999) have argued for the use of a political economy framework, often using the “entitlements approach” which begins Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 285 at household level (developed by Sen (1981, 1987), in analyses of vulnerability A household’s food entitlement consists of the food that the household can obtain through production, exchange, or extra-legal legitimate conventions - such as reciprocal relations or kinship obligations (Drèze and Sen, 1989) Ribot (1996) argues this approach introduces a household perspective on vulnerability, one that replaces “eco-centric” approaches to environmental change The main contribution of this approach lies, perhaps, in its focus on the vulnerability of individuals and social groups Within this framework vulnerability is understood as being determined by access to resources-specifically, by individuals’ “entitlement” to call on these resources Watts and Bohle (1993), using Drèze and Sen’s (1989) analysis of entitlements, argue that vulnerability is configured by the mutually constituted triad of entitlements, empowerment and political economy Here empowerment is the ability to shape the political economy that in turn shapes entitlement The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (1999) defines vulnerability from the food security perspective as “the presence of factors that place people at risk of becoming food insecure or malnourished.” This definition focuses on causes of food insecurity due to human interventions, such as political decisions, armed conflicts and international economic embargo Inappropriate political decisions often cause hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia; armed conflicts either not allow food distribution or purchase of food due to diversion of resources for buying military hardware/software; and international economic embargoes often lead to hunger by limiting a country or government’s spending power or accumulation of economic resources 11.3.2 ADAPTATION A number of definitions of adaptation can be found in the literature IPCC (2001) defined adaptation as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli and their effects or impacts, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities It refers to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change Smithers and Smit (1997) describe adaptation as involving “change in a system in response to some force or perturbation” Pielke (1998) refers adaptation “to adjustment in individual, group and institutional behavior in order to reduce society’s vulnerabilities to climate Adger (2001) views adaptation as a dynamic social process and believes that the ability of a society to act collectively determines its ability to adapt 11.3.2.1 ADAPT TO WHAT? Adaptation occurs in both natural and socio-economic systems (Burton et al., 1998) People generally adapt and practice measures to adapt to the variability of natural climate and extreme weather events Human intervention modifies the threat of natural variability However, human action can cause irreversible damage to systems and their natural resiliency may be lost Burton et al (1993) pointed out that human activities are not always as well adapted to climate as they might be The mounting losses from great natural disasters are in substantial part associated with extreme weather events Therefore, in a situation where natural climate and hydrologic systems have been modified by human intervention, even efficiently designed corrective measures might be proven to be either partially effective or ineffective Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 286 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS 11.3.2.2 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IPCC (2001) defined adaptive capacity as the potential, capability, or ability of a system to adapt to climate change stimuli or their effects or impacts Adaptive capacity depends on a number of determinants that include: socio-economic wealth, governance, technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions and equity Among these determinants, socio-economic factors are the most important determinants that help develop adaptive capacity Socio-economic factors affect the ability of a system to absorb (robustness) or respond to changes that occur to natural system due to natural causes or human interventions (Smith et al., 1998) In South Asia, socio-economic conditions of various economic groups, location and living conditions, inequality between rural and urban population (including their intra inequality) and gender broadly defines exposure of these groups to extreme weather events or human interventions 11.3.2.3 ADAPTATION TYPES Various types of adaptation include anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation Salient features of various types of adaptation are presented in Table 11.2 11.3.2.4 ADAPTATION MEASURES There are many potential adaptation measures that may be adopted in response to climate change and variability Burton et al (1993) divided them into the following eight categories depending on the individual’s choice of options The choice typology has been extended to include the role of community structures, institutional arrangements, and public policies (also see Fig 11.3) Table 11.3 summarizes the measures Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 287 Share the Loss Bear the Loss Modify the Events Legislative, Regulatory, Financial Prevent the Effects Institutional, Administrative Change Use Market Based Change Location Adaptation/ Response Options Structural, Technological On-Site Operations Research Education, Behavioral Fig 11.3 Classification of adaptation options (Burton et al., 1993) Table 11.3 Classification of adaptation measures Classification Bear the cost Share the losses Modify the events Prevent the events or their effects Change use occurs when an economic activity is impossible or extremely risky Change location Research Education for behavioral change Examples Accept the cost because there is no other choice Use insurance or government relief, or community or family sharing Modify the actual physical events themselves (e.g flood control, coastal surge protection) Preventing drought by cloud seeding but very few success stories Change human use activities (e.g regulate floodplain land-use; use drought-tolerant crops) Relocating major crops and farming regions, shifting human settlement and livestock population Development of salt tolerant crops for coastal region, rice varieties that can remain underwater for a longer period, etc Saving water to reduce climate driven water demand; conservation of energy to reduce cooling demand, etc 11.4 PRESENT VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION MEASURES AND POLICIES IN SOUTH ASIA: URBAN FLOODING IN DHAKA 11.4.1 URBAN FLOODS IN DHAKA, BANGLADESH Bangladesh acts as the drainage outlet for the three large rivers: the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) Huge rainfall in the basins during the monsoon, geographical Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 288 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS proximity and flat terrain of Bangladesh make it highly vulnerable to recurring flooding On average about 20.5% of Bangladesh gets inundated annually In extreme flooding years, the extent of inundation may be as much as 70% Figure 11.4 shows year to year extent of flooding in Bangladesh Four types of floods commonly occur in Bangladesh: flash, riverine, rainfall and storm-surge floods (Box 11.2) Fig 11.4 Extent of flooded area (%) in Bangladesh from 1954 to 2001 Source: Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), Dhaka Box 11.2 Bangladesh flood types The Northern, Northeastern and Southeast parts of Bangladesh are vulnerable to flash floods They usually occur due to a heavy rainfall in the neighboring hills and mountains in India as well as in Bangladesh The normal period of flash flooding is late April to early May Riverine floods are caused by over bank spillage of monsoon flows in the major rivers and their distributaries Riverine floods may occur several times depending on timing and magnitude of rainfall in the basins and may prolong for months in the monsoon (June-September) Rainfall floods occur when high local rainfall generates huge volume of runoff in the rivers and streams exceeding the drainage capacity Occurrences of such floods are common when the three major rivers are at high stages Storm-surge floods occur during October-December and April-May in the low-lying coastal areas of Bangladesh Tropical cyclones generate storm-surges that bring tidal bores often m high (Ahmed and Mirza, 2000) In the 1980s and 1990s, three extreme floods in 1987, 1988 and 1998 engulfed 36%, 63% and 69% of the country, respectively and caused human, environmental and economic devastation in Bangladesh During the flood of 1988, Dhaka City - the capital of Bangladesh was severely affected Again in 1998, a catastrophic flood engulfed the greater Dhaka area in the months of August and September Due to the flooding, about 56% of the greater Dhaka was submerged, and affected about 1.9 million people (30% of the population) Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 299 or prolonged disasters, the patterns of inequality are translated into lack of economic assets (which include savings, credit, land, tools and training), personal safety and nutrition, health care, social security, etc In Gujarat, due to social class differences, which cross-cut caste identities, women from 23 villages (62%) observed that low income women were most hurt by intersecting effects of embedded disasters (Enarson, 2001) 11.5.7 ADAPTATION AND COPING MECHANISMS Water scarcity was the most crucial problem in the drought-affected areas Gujarat state government and relief agencies spent Rs 20,000 million for relief and rehabilitation operation About half of the resources went to supply drinking water by tankers and piped water system These coping mechanisms are ad-hoc and not sustainable in the long-run A number of options were suggested First, policy-level recognition of traditional sources of water such as talavs (lakes), virdas (shallow holes into which ground water seeps and is collected for drinking) and vavs (stepped well) is required In addition to this, check dams and storage dams to for harvesting water at the village level will reduce the scarcity of water (Vabadam, 2001) Second, decentralization of water management systems need to be in place It was argued that the people themselves can very well point out decentralized solutions that might yield benefits much earlier and more cheaply than mega water project such as the Narmada (Sangvai, 2000) Third, modifying the present structure of property rights over ground water Ground water is not presently considered to be a common resource According to the law, it belongs to the owners of the land in which it is located This law has resulted in landowners trying to withdraw as much ground water possible regardless of the extent of their needs (Vabadam, 2001) Agriculture was also hard hit due to lack of rain, irrigation water and soil dryness Somewhere between 190 mm-250 mm of rainfall fell in a span of 60 days to 80 days of crop growth is the requirement of dry land agriculture Crops fail if the amount of rainfall is less than 115 mm-150 mm Therefore, at least this amount of irrigation is required to avoid crop failure Canal irrigation in Gujarat is dependent on the water available in the dams, which is also a function of rainfall It was found that crop productivity is directly proportional to the filling of dam with water If a dam is less than 50% full, water is usually not supplied for canal irrigation but is conserved for future need Another alternative is large-scale recharge and decentralized ways of water harvesting Sangvai (2000) suggested that the recharging of 200,000 wells would raise the ground water level throughout Saurastra In the past such a campaign was found to be successful During 1995-1998, farmers recharged thousands of wells The endeavor does not involve big budget, bureaucratic and unwieldy planning Peasants can implement this speedily without complicated technology at a cheaper cost Altering pricing policy for agriculture is an option to reduce water demand The pricing policy should be formulated in such a way that people are encouraged to grow other crops Groundnut, a water intensive crop, is widely cultivated in Saurashtra, is the world’s largest supplier of this cash crop Any attempt to make farmers switch to other crops will be resisted by the powerful exporters and vested quarters 11.6 STAKEHOLDERS’ PARTICIPATION 11.6.1 BANGLADESH Stakeholders’ participation in flood control/mitigation measures and disaster management Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 300 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS has undergone a long evolutionary process Flood control/mitigation received major attention after successive disastrous floods in 1954 and 1955 Stakeholders’ participation in planning, design and implementation of the water sector in Bangladesh can be divided into three major phases Phase I (1955-1990): After the successive floods in the mid-1950s, the then government of Pakistan undertook a massive flood control program for East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) The highly bureaucratic East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (EPWAPDA) was created in 1959 and was administered mainly by the engineers Up to 1991, all public sector water projects were driven by a Master Plan developed in 1964 The approach to development was centrally driven and planned All the administrators and technicians had been trained primarily in Pakistan and were not able to adjust to the reality in Bangladesh The orientation of the EPWAPDA was like a military administration where information was controlled in a military way For example, maps were restricted and office of the Surveyor General of East Pakistan was under the Ministry of Defense (Pittman, 1994) This kind of management without the participation of various other levels of stakeholders created conflicts between farmers, fishers, and tradesmen with different interests in the project area First, “public cuts” are one of such problems during a flood when people inside and outside the project area cut an embankment to reduce the threat Second, unnecessary projects were implemented at the wish of politicians and engineers These projects created more problems than well-being Third, operation and maintenance are also affected Projects are usually imposed from the top upon the landscape Therefore the structures quickly dry up, wash out, or silt up because of lack of local level participation in their maintenance Eventually the projects tend to run down and fail (Pittman, 1994) Fourth, lack of participation worsened environmental hazards Many flood control projects (e.g., the Chandpur Irrigation Project) created environmental hazards such as the depletion of floodplain fisheries, employment, reduced supply of protein, water logging, soil salinity and agriculture pollution (Mirza and Ericksen, 1996) The top level bureaucracy was further expanded with the creation of National Water Council (NWC) in 1986 headed by the head of the government One positive aspect was that several experts outside the government were rotationally chosen as members of the council After the disastrous floods of 1987 and 1988, the government decided to re-examine the flood problem in Bangladesh The Flood Action Plan (FAP) with 27 components supported by 15 donors was launched In order to oversee the activities of the FAP, the Flood Plan Coordination Organization (FPCO) was created The FPCO was under the Ministry of Water Resources and was independent from the BWDB But the majority of the manpower of FPCO with ‘old school of thought’ was drawn from the BWDB Initially a broad-based stakeholder participation was not in the statute of the FPCO Phase II (1991-1998): Under the pressure from the non-government organizations (NGOs) and Civil Society, the plan was gradually changed from a structurally-oriented plan in 1990 to a plan with more emphasis on the environment and public participation Special components for public participation were built into the FAP (Pittman, 1994) The Compartmentalization Pilot Project (CPP), Tangail planned and executed for the first time from a multi-disciplinary approach by taking into account the needs of fisheries, navigation and agriculture Guidelines for public participation were produced and the government approved them In the 2nd and 3rd national FAP conferences, many professionals outside of government as well as grass roots representatives were allowed to attend and raise questions The FAP was completed in 1995 and the FPCO was renamed “Water Resources Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 301 Planning Organization (WARPO)” Phase III (1999-): A National Water Policy was formulated in 1999, recognizing that the participation of stakeholders was an integral part of water resources management Special attention has been given to stakeholder participation intended to elicit direct input from people at all levels of engagement It stated that the “Guidelines for People’s Participation (GPP) in Water Development Projects be adhered to as part of the project planning by all institutions and agencies involved in public sector management of water resources” It also emphasized exploring opportunities and undertaking efforts to ensure participation of the landless and other disadvantaged groups (MWR, 1999) During preparation of the National Water Plan (1998-2002), the WARPO developed and implemented a People’s Participation and Consultation Programme (PPCP) targeting a wide cross-section of stakeholders It was conducted through programmes of village, union, thana and district meetings, national and regional workshops and special group meetings with government agencies 11.6.2 INDIA In India two tiers of administrations the central and state governments, conduct water resources management Therefore, the participatory model of stakeholders is rather complex Figure 11.10 shows institutional arrangements in a top-down approach for the water sector in India The central Ministry of Water Resources is responsible for policy guidelines and programs for the development and regulation of country’s water resources One of its main functions is to provide technical guidance, clearance and monitoring of the irrigation, flood control and multipurpose projects (major/medium) The Ministry’s other major function is the operation of the central network for flood forecasting and warning on inter-state rivers The state government has also responsibility of water management The central Ministry has 17 organizations, which are involved with water resources research, development and management The Ministry of Agriculture and Department of Rural Development also have watershed development programs, but the inter-ministerial and inter-departmental coordination is rather weak Unlike Bangladesh, there are no exclusive guidelines for stakeholders’ participation in water management projects although the Indian National Water Policy 2002 states “Efforts should be made to involve farmers progressively in various aspects of management of irrigation systems, particularly in water distribution and collection of water rates Assistance of voluntary agencies should be enlisted in educating the farmers in efficient water use and water management”(MWR, 2002) Although water resources management including extreme events like floods and droughts are dominated by top-down approach, some bottom-up approach is taking place Successive droughts in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh (AP) in 2000 and 2001 compelled the state governments to launch a local level participatory water conservation programme involving NGOs who have very strong grass roots level networks One such programme is Sardar Patel Participatory Water Conservation Programme (SPPWCP) in Gujarat launched in January 2000; and the AP government launched the Neeru Meeru (Water and You) programme in May 2000 Regarding the SPPWCP, Down to Earth (2000) made two important observations First, through launching the SPPWCP, the Gujarat government learned from its past mistakes and also from the successes of villages led by civil society Second, the SPPWCP was formulated in a way that reduces bureaucratic wrangling The people responded with enthusiasm and submitted proposals for more than 25,000 check dams Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 302 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS Ministries of Agriculture Water Resources Rural Development Forest & Envir Government of India Departments of Agriculture Water Resources Rural Development Forest & Envir State Government District Rural Development Agency District Advisory Committee (MPs/MLAs/ Panchayat Leaders/Civil Servants) Land Development Corporation Irrigation Department Forest Department Projects User Groups Projects User Groups Contractors User Groups Fig 11.10 Stakeholders arrangements in a top-down approach for water sector in India Source: Enarth, 2002 A bottom-up stakeholders’ participatory model in water management may run into trouble because of conflicts of interests of various groups Enarth (2002) discussed such a case in Thalota, Meshna, Gujarat, India Thalota, a village located at the tail end of a medium sized irrigation project served by a reservoir located about 110 km upstream The majority of the population belongs to Patels and Thakores and Muslims, Brahmins, Banias (traders) and Harjans (untouchables) are a minority Rich upstream farmers used most of the water flowing through the irrigation canal An NGO negotiated with the upstream farmers and government department about the scarce water situation of Thalota It also convinced the water users at Thalota to share the maintenance cost of the irrigation canal An MOU was signed in 1996, and for the first time in more than 15 years, farmers saw water flow from the canal not just into the village but to the last plot of the farmland along the water course However, the expansion of this Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) was eventually stalled due to fear of NGO control over resources, a feeling of subordination of the concerned government officials of the irrigation department and a local politician member of the legislative assembly (MLA) In 1999, under intense political pressure the NGO had to abandon their community building process in many of these villages Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 11.7 PRESENT ADAPTATION POLICIES 11.7.1 303 BANGLADESH There are no exclusive ‘adaptation policies’ for the water sector in the countries of South Asia Control of extreme weather events (floods and droughts) primarily focused on ‘reduction of crop loss’ and ‘maximizing agriculture production’ In Bangladesh, for three decades (1960-1990) the control of floods was the prioritized policy This policy focused on ‘structural solutions’ through the construction of flood control embankments to protect mainly agriculture and human settlements from flooding The planning and design of the projects were based on 100-year and 20-year return period floods along the main rivers (Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna) and the minor rivers, respectively This policy was implemented through the creation of a large engineering organization the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) (formerly EPWAPDA) The success of such structural solutions is questionable, as in many areas failure and over-topping of embankments are regular phenomena during severe floods (for example, the floods of 1998 and 1988) In the early years of flood control initiatives, less importance was given to non-structural measures that include flood modeling, flood forecasting and warning, evacuation, flood shelters, etc Flood modeling received attention during the preparation of the 2nd Water Master Plan during 1983-1986 when the Danish Hydrologic Model ‘NAM’ was introduced Subsequently, more sophisticated MIKE 11 and MIKE 21 hydrodynamic models were also introduced, calibrated and validated The Surface Water Modeling Center (SWMC) (now IWM) was created in the late 1980s The BWDB created flood forecasting and warning center (FFWC) in 1972 It received technical and financial assistance from the United Nations during 1981-1986 and 1989-1992 The Center now uses hourly rainfall, discharge and water level data collected from selected stations for simulating floods with the aid of MIKE 11-GIS model, and disseminating the warnings in electronic and print media and to several government departments The forecasting and warning information is also available on the internet (www.ffwc.net) During the 1998 flood, forecasting and warning was found to be effective in reducing loss of lives and property (Chowdhury, 2000) Drought forecasting and management policies are rather neglected although its not a lesser ‘menace’ than floods In the period 1973-1986, the average loss of crops due to droughts was as same as for floods (Mirza, 2002) There is no effective mechanism in place in Bangladesh for drought forecasting Drought occurs for three main reasons: low residual soil moisture as a result of inadequate rainfall in the monsoon; low or no rainfall in summer together with high evapo-transpiration; and low summer flow in the rivers/streams unable to meet irrigation water demand In addition, in many areas, low monsoon recharge can cause very high draw downs of water tables in summer leading to crop loss Departments responsible for agriculture development not prepare projected soil moisture maps The BWDB not forecast river flows for the summer months or estimate the amount of recharge that occurred in the monsoon or prepare maps of vulnerable areas The meteorological department does not have any long-range weather forecasting model Although the Ministry of Agriculture drafted ‘drought codes’ in 1980, they are focused at ‘reactive’ rehabilitation rather than ‘anticipatory’ As the delivery and implementation of the measures suggested in the codes are heavily top-down, by the time they reach at the grass roots level, the damage is already done Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 304 11.7.2 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS INDIA Flood control/management policy in India is also skewed to structural solutions (embankments, dams, reservoir, etc.) Not withstanding flood policy and flood control schemes, flood damage is increasing, with larger populations subjected to distress in increasing flood-prone areas Menon and Kadvi (2003) report that the locus of flood damage has shifted away from the Gangetic belt They also reported widespread flood damage in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the South, Maharastra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan in the West, Uttar Pradesh in the North, and Bihar and West Bengal in the East Gupta et al (2003) concluded that despite more flood-prone area being protected, people in the affected areas were still highly vulnerable to floods Over the years, flood policy in India evolved and several committees/commissions were constituted and policy documents were prepared including Policy Statement 1954; High Level Committee on Floods-1957; Policy Statement of 1958; Ministerial Committee on Flood Control-1964; Ministers’ Committee on Floods and Flood Relief-1972; Working Group on Flood Control for Five Year Plans; Rashtriya Barh Ayog (RBA)-1980; National Water Policy-1987; National Commission for Integrated Water Resource Development Plan-1996 and National Water Policy-2002 The evolution of policy observed a shift from only ‘structural solution’ to a mix of structural and non-structural solutions Despite this shift, the maximum federal funding is allocated for large-scale structures most of which are incomplete and carried over from one five-year plan to another Emphasis on establishing cooperative programme on precipitation and flood data sharing for transnational rivers is another significant shift in flood policy However, flood forecasting and warning employing sophisticated hydrodynamic model is still neglected Reactive adaptation measures such as disaster management programmes have also improved compared to the early years of independence Now in addition to government efforts, NGOs take an active role in post-hazard disaster management Like flood policy, drought policy is mostly reactive type It is highly focused on post-hazard disaster management Lack of resources for disaster management is a very regular affair Management does not focus on all the elements created by a chain reaction triggered by the failure of the monsoon or very low flow in rivers and wells Drying up of water sources and soil moisture usually leads to crop losses, loss of jobs, increasing levels of indebtedness, the necessity of sale of cattle and other assets, increasing out migration, a sharp drop in purchasing power, malnourishment and possibility of long-term illness Disaster management ceases as soon as rainfall occurs or the next crop is harvested However, the distress created by a drought goes beyond that which is missing in the drought management policies Inequity is the most critical issue, which needs to be addressed in the drought policy It can be of various forms and magnitudes In India, the Dalits, religious minorities and tribal populations are often the victims of discrimination In addition, women, children, the elderly and the physically challenged bear the brunt of adverse economic changes (Menon, 2000) Discrimination in the distribution of water is also observed The arid districts of Kutch, Saurashtra and North Gujarat constitute around 80% of the State’s landmass, but receive only 30% of available water A fair share of the State’s water goes to the more prosperous South and Central Gujarat (Frontline Team, 2002) Over the years, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) improved its capability in forecasting medium and long-range weather but their model is weak in forecasting the special distribution and inter-spell duration of rain Proposals for creating grain and seed banks and ‘drought code’ and alternative cropping strategy were ignored in the past (Frontline Team, 2002) Rainwater harvesting policy brought changes in drought management in Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 305 Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh (AP) The governments in these two states planned and executed two programmes - Sarder Patel Participatory Water Conservation Programme (SPPWCP) in Gujarat and Neeru Meeru (Water and You) in AP 11.8 FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, RISKS AND ADAPTATION 11.8.1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISKS Discussions in the preceding section demonstrate that the South Asia region is at substantial risk of climate and hydrological hazards Risks associated with floods and droughts are shown in Figure 11.11 In the natural hazard based approach, risk is a combination of two factors: the probability that an adverse event will occur and the consequences of that adverse event (USPCC RARM, 1997) The combination can be expressed as: Risk = probability * consequence The probability of an adverse event can be expressed as the likelihood of a given climate hazard The consequences of that adverse event are measured in social terms and can be characterized as vulnerability In the vulnerability-based approach risk is assessed by determining the likelihood of exceeding a critical threshold of any climatic or hydrologic events Mathematically the probability R, called risk that flood magnitude F will occur at least once in n successive years is: R = 1−(1− n ) T where T is return period of the flood event which is expressed as : T= P( F ) In order to assess the present risks of climate hazard, the droughts in 2000 and 2001 in Gujarat, India can be taken as case studies Figure 11.12 shows the probability density function for monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and Saurashtra and Kutch In 1999 and 2000, the amount of rainfall was 181 mm and 241 mm, respectively and the corresponding return period was 10.3 (p = 0.097) and 6.1 (p = 0.16) years Therefore, the likelihood of exceedence is 9.7% and 16%, respectively every year considered to be quite high Future risks of floods and droughts will depend on the magnitude and intensity of precipitation Model results show that a likelihood of increased intensity of precipitation events in a future climate with increased greenhouse gases This remains a consistent result in a number of regions that includes South Asia (Hennessy et al., 1997; Yonetani and Gordon, 2001) In addition, changes in precipitation intensity have a geographical dependence Bhaskaran and Mitchell (1998) note that the range of precipitation intensity over the South Asia monsoon region broadens in a future climate experiment with GHG forcing, with decreases prevalent in the West (relatively drier part) and increases widespread in the East (wetter part) Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 306 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS Fig 11.11 Risks associated with floods and droughts Lal et al (1998) surveyed the results on the Indian subcontinent of 17 climate change experiments including both equilibrium x CO2 and transient AIGCM simulations with and without sulphate aerosol forcing In the simulations forced only by GHG increases, most models show wet season (June, July and August) rainfall increases over the region of less than 5% per degree of global warming A minority of experiments shows rainfall decreases The experiments, which included scenarios of increasing sulphate forcing all showed reduced rainfall increases or stronger rainfall decreases, than their corresponding GHG only experiments Mirza (2002) used the climate change scenarios CSIRO9, GFDL, HadCM2 and LLNL GCMs to assess changes in the probability of occurrence of 20-year floods for the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers in Bangladesh The analysis indicates substantial changes in probability of occurrence floods even with a 2oC change in global mean temperature (Table 11.10) For the Ganges River, with the CSRIO9 model, the magnitude of future mean flood exceeds the current 20-year flood (67,984 m3/sec) with a 6oC rise in temperature The largest change in the probability of a current 20-year flood Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 307 (86,687 m3/sec) for the Brahmaputra River is associated with the GFDL model, followed by the HadCM2 model For the Meghna River for both HadCM2 and LLNL models, the future mean flood may exceed the current 20-year flood (18,996 m3/sec) with a 6oC rise in temperature 0.002 Probab ility Probab ility 0.0015 1999 (a) 2000 0.001 0.0005 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Rainfall To tal (mm) Probab ility 0.0025 Probab ility 0.002 2000 0.0015 (b) 1999 0.001 0.0005 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Rain fa ll T otal (mm) Fig 11.12 Probability density function for monsoon rainfall in (a) Gujarat, (b) Saurashtra and Kutch Data source: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune 11.9 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES 11.9.1 OPPORTUNITIES UNDP (2003) has listed a number of benefits that the APF offers In this section we will discuss the benefits of the APF with some examples The APF will: • Increase the robustness of infrastructure designs and long-term investments Presently infrastructures are designed based on available historical data and the economic life of a project The economic life varies from project to project depending on purpose, size and the amount of investment Usually for a large project (dam, reservoir, etc.), the economic life is 75 years and for a medium project (flood control embankment) 30 years-50 years In most cases, at present, designs are done once and implemented accordingly Maintenance works are done according to the original design specifications One of the underlying assumptions of the APF is that adaptation Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 308 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS is a continued process Therefore, in the APF, there is room for continued revision of designs and investments of infrastructure For example, a flood control embankment may be designed in such a way to accommodate future climate risk A dam/reservoir may be designed to accommodate flexible operation rules • Increase the flexibility and resilience of managed natural systems and social systems Adaptation measures designed under a policy framework increase the flexibility and resilience of both managed natural and social systems Flexible systems and policies are those that allow self-adjustments or mid-core corrections as needed without major economic or social disruption For example, flexible systems can be fine tuned to cope with hot and dry weather as well as more intense rainstorms Flexibility also takes into account future adjustments Building a dam at a site is a less flexible policy than water conservation Under a detailed assessment, if it is found that water conservation for the next 25 years-50 years is less expensive than building an expensive dam then it is the best option for now and the near future However, the policy also allows room for building a dam in the future (80 years-100 years from now) when demand for water will be greater and conservation measures may be inadequate Integrating some adaptation measures, a system can be made more robust In this context, sedimentation of the managed multi-purpose reservoirs in South Asia is a good example Many of these reservoirs are losing their designed life by excessive sedimentation Indian reservoirs on an average are losing storage capacity at the rate of 0.23 ha-m/km2/year The life of Kaptai reservoirs was estimated to be 300 years in 1960, but today it is merely 180 years The Kulekhani reservoir in Nepal which had design life of 100 years, lost million m3 or 8% of its gross storage capacity in just 12 years since its impoundment in 1981 The reservoir had a designed dead storage of 12 million m3 (Mirza and Dixit, 1997) There is no effective sediment management plan for the watersheds of Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 309 these reservoirs The plan must address dynamic process of sediment generation, transportation and deposition (rate and amount) in the reservoirs Plantation in the watersheds, grass cover in the areas vulnerable to erosion and sediment detention basins can effectively reduce the inflow of sediment to the reservoirs If the capacity of the reservoirs can be maintained by halting or reducing sedimentation, they can tolerate a wide range of climate conditions and therefore will be less vulnerable to climate change extremes In terms of social systems, for example, pro-active adaptation policies for drought management can reduce pressure on social systems such as poverty, migration and health • Enhance the adaptability of vulnerable natural systems Mangroves in Bangladesh and the Eastern Coast of India act as barriers against cyclones and storm-surges, saving lives and property in the coastal area as well as providing a variety of services In 1988, a killer cyclone that hit the Sundarbans mangroves which could have killed thousands of people had there been no forest cover Destruction of mangroves in the coast of Orissa is blamed for the loss of huge number of lives during a severe cyclone in November, 1999 In recent years, the Sundarbans in Bangladesh is facing degradation due to reduced freshwater supplies from upstream in India and human interventions An effective adaptation policy under a framework towards increasing freshwater supplies and integrating local people with the forest management can rejuvenate the Sundarbans which would save lives and property from coastal flooding originating from storm-surges and high tides In future, the likelihood of inundation will increase due to possible increases in sea level • Reverse trends that increase vulnerability (also termed “maladaptation”) There are instances of adaptation measures that increased the vulnerability to climate variability For example, in Bangladesh flood control projects along the smaller rivers (e.g Gumti) increased flood vulnerability and higher risk of damage This has occurred because sedimentation in the outer channel has increased the level of the channel Therefore, risk of flooding is now greater even for the designed flood In the past, floodwater breached and overtopped the embankment Allowing controlled flooding inside a project area can rectify this kind of problem • Improve societal awareness and preparedness for future climate change Design and implementation of an APF will improve societal awareness and preparedness for future climate change in a number of ways For example, one way of training one or more persons in drought- or flood-vulnerable villages as “climate managers” can create awareness about climate variability and change, and will also help in the adoption of measures to reduce crop and other social losses Involving stakeholders (grass roots people, water managers, policy makers, politicians, etc.) at various levels of the APF will also enhance awareness and preparedness for the future 11.9.2 CHALLENGES Stepwise analysis of the APF for urban floods in Bangladesh and drought in Gujarat has been carried out It demonstrates that most of the information is available to apply the APF However, a few challenges remain which could be overcome with some efforts First, although huge socio-economic information is available in both countries at the macro-level, for regional level application of the APF requires micro-level information which must be translated into adaptive capacity for grass roots level people After the Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 310 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS severe drought that occurred in Gujarat, the UNDP carried out a socio-economic survey, which showed that $850 per year household (4-5 member family) income was sufficient to absorb the shock Second, there is a significant disconnect among the stakeholders of the water sector in South Asia The system is too bureaucratic and a top-down planning approach is dominant but a change is slowly taking place in the two-century old bureaucratic culture A bottom-up approach is receiving priority in developing any flood or drought management project Third, hydro-meteorological data are maintained by several organizations There are different protocols about data sharing and dissemination, which often create problems More problems exist when two or more countries share a basin For example, Bangladesh and India share 54 river basins and any effective flood management plan requires upstream hydro-meteorological data from India However, the process of getting access to such data is complicated and in many cases impossible Fourth, climate change and socio-economic scenarios are not readily available Some institutions have the capability to construct coarse scale climate scenarios with the aid of GCM data Facilities for downscaling scenarios at the station or regional level are still in their infancy In addition, analytical scope to assess uncertainties attached to scenarios and at various levels of application (impact and adaptation assessment) is limited 11.10 CONCLUDING REMARKS Regardless of the incremental risks of climate change, the tasks of managing current climate variability and extremes (as illustrated in Bangladesh and Gujarat) will continue to pose a significant challenge to the hazard management capacity of the public agencies and the private sector as well as the vulnerable communities themselves Many adaptation measures were implemented in the past to reduce vulnerability to climate and hydrological extremes In many cases these measures were found to be inadequate Under a climate change regime, vulnerability may substantially increase in future A first step in dealing with climate change is to address the adaptation gap in current policies and measures This alone will not be sufficient Enhanced capacity is needed to cope with the new and stronger challenges of climate change The UNDP’s Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is primarily designed to help achieve these objectives Analyses of two case studies (urban floods in Dhaka, Bangladesh and droughts in Gujarat, India) show that application of the APF is feasible However, some challenges remain Micro-level socio-economic data are insufficient but can be generated by conducting surveys In the APF process, identification of gaps in the stakeholders’ participation in the project planning, design, implementation and monitoring is a formidable task High resolution climate change scenarios at local levels are not readily available There is a great need to invest in climate change and socio-economic scenario generation Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND IAN BURTON 311 REFERENCES Adger, N W.: Social Capital and Climate Change Working Paper 8, Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, U.K., 2001 Adger, N and Kelly, M.: Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (1999), pp.253-266 Ahmed, A and Mirza, M M Q.: Review of 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pp.43-68 Yonetani, T and Gordon, H B.: Simulated Changes in the Frequency of Extremes and Regional Features of Seasonal/Annual Temperature and Precipitation When Atmospheric CO2 is Doubled J Climate 14(8) (2001), pp.1765-1779 Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK ... Gujarat and Neeru Meeru (Water and You) in AP 11. 8 FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, RISKS AND ADAPTATION 11. 8.1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISKS Discussions in the preceding section demonstrate that the South Asia. .. non-structural measures include flood forecasting and warning, retention ponds, natural water bodies and drainage network, land-use planning and relief and rehabilitation Other practiced non-structural... rainfall, discharge and water level data collected from selected stations for simulating floods with the aid of MIKE 1 1- GIS model, and disseminating the warnings in electronic and print media and