Edited by Arild Angelsen, Maria Brockhaus, William D. Sunderlin and Louis V. Verchot Analysing REDD+ Challenges and choices CIFOR Analysing REDD+ Challenges and choices Editor Arild Angelsen Co-editors Maria Brockhaus William D. Sunderlin Louis V. Verchot Editorial assistant Therese Dokken Language editing, project management and layout Green Ink Ltd © 2012 by the Center for International Forestry Research. All rights reserved. Printed in Indonesia ISBN: 978-602-8693-80-6 Angelsen, A., Brockhaus, M., Sunderlin, W.D. and Verchot, L.V. (eds) 2012 Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia. Photo credits: Cover © Cyril Ruoso/Minden Pictures Parts: 1. Habtemariam Kassa, 2. Manuel Boissière, 3. Douglas Sheil Chapters: 1. and 10. Yayan Indriatmoko, 2. Neil Palmer/CIAT, 3. and 12. Yves Laumonier, 4. Brian Belcher, 5. Tony Cunningham, 6. and 16. Agung Prasetyo, 7. Michael Padmanaba, 8. Anne M. Larson, 9. Amy Duchelle, 11. Meyrisia Lidwina, 13. Jolien Schure, 14. César Sabogal, 15. Ryan Woo, 17. Edith Abilogo, 18. Ramadian Bachtiar Designed by CIFOR’s Multimedia Team, Information Services Group Language editing, project management and layout by Green Ink Ltd (www.greenink.co.uk) CIFOR Jl. CIFOR, Situ Gede Bogor Barat 16115 Indonesia T +62 (251) 8622-622 F +62 (251) 8622-100 E cifor@cgiar.org cifor.org ForestsClimateChange.org Any views expressed in this book are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of CIFOR, the editors, the authors’ institutions, the financial sponsors or the reviewers. Center for International Forestry Research CIFOR advances human wellbeing, environmental conservation and equity by conducting research to inform policies and practices that affect forests in developing countries. CIFOR is a CGIAR Consortium Research Center. CIFOR’s headquarters are in Bogor, Indonesia and it also has offices in Asia, Africa and South America. Table of contents Foreword ix Acknowledgements xi Summary xiii List of authors xx 1 Introduction 1 Arild Angelsen, Maria Brockhaus, William D. Sunderlin and Louis V. Verchot Part 1. Understanding REDD+ 2 Seeing REDD+ through 4Is: A political economy framework 15 Maria Brockhaus and Arild Angelsen 3 The evolution of REDD+ 31 Arild Angelsen and Desmond McNeill 4 REDD+ and the global economy: Competing forces and policy options 51 Pablo Pacheco, Louis Putzel, Krystof Obidzinski and George Schoneveld Part 2. Implementing REDD+ 5 Politics and power in national REDD+ policy processes 69 Monica Di Gregorio, Maria Brockhaus, Tim Cronin and and Efrian Muharrom 6 Multiple levels and multiple challenges for REDD+ 91 Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki, Maria Brockhaus, Amy E. Duchelle, Stibniati Atmadja and Pham Thu Thuy 7 Financing REDD+ 111 Charlotte Streck and Charlie Parker 8 Who should benefit and why? Discourses on REDD+ benefit sharing 129 Cecilia Luttrell, Lasse Loft, Maria Fernanda Gebara and Demetrius Kweka 9 Tenure matters in REDD+: Lessons from the field 153 Anne M. Larson, Maria Brockhaus and William D. Sunderlin 10 REDD+ projects as a hybrid of old and new forest conservation approaches 177 William D. Sunderlin and Erin O. Sills 11 Local hopes and worries about REDD+ projects 193 Ida Aju Pradnja Resosudarmo, Amy E. Duchelle, Andini D. Ekaputri and William D. Sunderlin 12 Site selection for forest carbon projects 209 Liwei Lin, Subhrendu K. Pattanayak, Erin O. Sills and William D. Sunderlin Table of contentsiv | Part 3. Measuring REDD+ performance 13 Performance indicators and REDD+ implementation 233 Sheila Wertz-Kanounnikoff and Desmond McNeill 14 Baselines and monitoring in local REDD+ projects 247 Manuel Estrada and Shijo Joseph 15 Emissions factors: Converting land use change to CO 2 estimates 261 Louis V. Verchot, Kamalakumari Anitha, Erika Romijn, Martin Herold and Kristell Hergoualc’h 16 A stepwise framework for developing REDD+ reference levels 279 Martin Herold, Arild Angelsen, Louis V. Verchot, Arief Wijaya and John Herbert Ainembabazi 17 REDD+ safeguards in national policy discourse and pilot projects 301 Pamela Jagger, Kathleen Lawlor, Maria Brockhaus, Maria Fernanda Gebara, Denis Jean Sonwa and Ida Aju Pradnja Resosudarmo 18 Summary and conclusions: REDD+ without regrets 317 Frances Seymour and Arild Angelsen Appendix: CIFOR’s Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (GCS) 335 Terms and abbreviations 365 Glossary 374 References 384 Table of contents | v List of boxes, figures and tables List of Boxes 1 2.1 Indonesia’s Forest Moratorium: The politics of the possible 21 Frances Seymour 2.2 Institutional path-dependencies in the Congo Basin 23 Samuel Assembe-Mvondo 3.1 The role of ideologies in framing the REDD+ agenda 37 Rocio Hiraldo and Thomas M. Tanner 3.2 Preconditions for a market for REDD+ credits 44 4.1 Biofuel markets, the EU Renewable Energy Directive and forests 55 Francis X. Johnson 4.2 China’s domestic logging ban and demand for African timber 56 4.3 Oil palm, food and biofuels in Indonesia 58 4.4 Beef and soybean in the Brazilian Amazon 61 4.5 Biofuel, food prices and land investments in sub-Saharan Africa 64 5.1 REDD+ the Brazilian way: Integrating old sticks with new carrots 78 Jan Börner and Sven Wunder 5.2 Linking knowledge to action: REDD+ policy making in Tanzania 81 Salla Rantala 5.3 Constraints to effective REDD+ policy making in Nepal 84 Bryan R. Bushley and Dil Bahadur Khatri 5.4 A media-based analysis of the REDD+ discourse in Norway 86 Laila Borge 6.1 Risks of corruption in REDD+: Lessons from Indonesia 96 Ahmad Dermawan 6.2 Regional policy networks in Indonesia 102 Caleb Gallemore and Rut Dini 6.3 Decentralisation or INGOisation of REDD+? Lack of national lead in building a REDD+ strategy in Madagascar 107 Emilia Runeberg 7.1 “What does REDD+ cost?” is (almost) a meaningless question 115 Arild Angelsen 7.2 Financing REDD+ in the Democratic Republic of Congo 125 André Aquino 8.1 Key concepts for REDD+ benefit sharing 134 8.2 Debates over carbon rights in selected REDD+ countries 144 8.3 REDD+ projects in Tanzania: Exploring options to overcome the tension between performance and input-based benefit sharing 147 9.1 Papua New Guinea: Customary rights versus carbon cowboys 157 Andrea Babon and Daniel McIntyre 9.2 Myth and reality: Security of forest rights in Vietnam 160 Thu Thuy Pham, Thu-Ba Huynh and Moira Moeliono 1 If unspecified, the box is written by the chapter authors. Table of contentsvi | 9.3 Participatory forest management as an institutional foundation for REDD+ in Tanzania 169 Therese Dokken 11.1 Are REDD incentives in line with local people’s perceptions? Lessons from the Transamazon region of Brazil 204 Marina Cromberg 12.1 Catalogues of REDD+ projects 212 Mrigesh Kshatriya and Liwei Lin 12.2 Integrating conservation tools in the Bolsa Floresta programme, Brazilian Amazon 217 Jan Börner and Sven Wunder 13.1 Performance indicators in development aid 237 13.2 Performance measurement in the Guyana–Norway REDD+ Partnership 244 15.1 Using the Gain–Loss method to improve the facility of estimating emissions factors for tropical peatlands 268 15.2 Evidence of progress between FRA 2005 and FRA 2010 272 15.3 From global to local in REDD+ MRV: Linking community and government approaches 273 Finn Danielsen, Neil D. Burgess and Martin Enghoff 16.1 UNFCCC COP17 guidance and its implications 281 16.2 Regression analysis to estimate deforestation drivers 286 16.3 3 Phases, 3 Approaches, 3 Tiers, 3 Steps 290 16.4 Developing RLs in Indonesia 295 17.1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) safeguards articulated in the Cancun Agreement 302 17.2 Linking Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and REDD+ biodiversity safeguards: Experience from sub-Saharan Africa 306 17.3 National REDD+ safeguard policy in Brazil 309 A1 Challenges of REDD+ research 359 Frances Seymour List of figures 1.1 Structure of the book 6 2.1 REDD+ and the 4Is 20 3.1 REDD+ as an emerging idea and practice 36 4.1 Simplified diagram of the global economic forces and policies in consumer and producer countries shaping land use competition with implications for REDD+ 53 5.1 Key REDD+ policy events by country 72 5.2 Political economy framework 74 7.1 Financial sources for REDD+ 117 7.2 Private and public sector finance for REDD+ 119 8.1 Potential structures for REDD+ financial flows to subnational levels 140 9.1 Tenure reform pathways to reducing deforestation and degradation 155 9.2 Meta topics in national media articles (percentage of total analysed newspaper articles per country) 166 10.1 Intervention proponents expect to have most positive impact on carbon sequestration 188 Table of contents | vii 11.1 Local understanding of the local REDD+ project objectives 200 11.2 Local hopes and worries concerning the REDD+ project 201 12.1 Distribution of REDD+ projects 211 12.2 Number of projects in Brazil and Indonesia pursuing different combinations of goals and activities 215 12.3 Comparison of municipalities with at least one REDD+ project to municipalities with no REDD+ projects, subdivided into municipalities in the Legal Amazon vs. the rest of Brazil (‘outside’) 222 12.4 Comparison of districts with at least one REDD+ project to districts with no REDD+ projects, subdivided into districts on the Outer Islands (outside the provinces of Java) vs. Java 223 13.1 Options for performance indicators across REDD+ phases 242 14.1 Historical remote sensing data available for GCS project sites 258 15.1 Relationships between key categories and the tier levels for inventory compilation and accuracy vs. cost tradeoffs 265 15.2 Steps involved in the estimation of emission factors 269 15.3 Change in capacity for 99 tropical non-Annex I countries based on the difference between FAO/FRA 2005 and 2010 reporting on the five different forest carbon pools 272 16.1 Key elements for setting reference levels 283 16.2 Predictors of deforestation in Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam 286 17.1 Project motivation for obtaining FPIC: Rights, rules and success 313 A1 Research design and work modules of GCS Component 1 342 A2 Component 2’s BACI method 346 List of tables 5.1 Drivers of deforestation, policies that clash/support REDD+ and autonomy of state actors 76 5.2 Actors shaping the policy discourse (percentage of total actors expressing a position on REDD+ in media) 83 6.1 Core elements in REDD+ and their multilevel dimensions 94 6.2 Multilevel governance mechanisms, REDD+ responses and case study examples 98 7.1 Global supply of emission reductions from REDD+ (GtCO 2 e per year) 116 7.2 Current (2010) and future (2020) levels of REDD+ finance under public and private sector mechanisms (US $ billions per annum) 120 7.3 Summary of REDD+ needs 126 8.1 Overview of REDD+ benefit sharing policies and practices in five countries 132 8.2 Examples of potential REDD+ beneficiaries and the costs and benefits they may accrue 136 8.3 Selection of project approaches to benefit sharing 138 8.4 Proposed models for subnational REDD+ funding allocations in Brazil 143 9.1 Forest tenure distribution (2008 data, in millions of hectares) 159 9.2 National and project level tenure problems and initiatives 162 9.3 Land conflict, insecurity and local forest rule compliance in sampled villages by country (by number and percent) 170 Table of contentsviii | 9.4 Exclusion rights and practice in sampled villages by country (by number and percent) 171 9.5 Tenure issues, implications for REDD+ and potential solutions 174 10.1 Timing of introduction of interventions at 21 REDD+ project sites in GCS Component 2 186 11.1 REDD+ projects analysed 196 11.2 Project status and knowledge of REDD+ and local REDD+ project (2010) 198 11.3 Local people’s recommendations for REDD+ projects 206 12.1 Number of REDD+ projects in Brazil and Indonesia by goals and activities 214 12.2 Mean values of factors considered in site selection in municipalities or districts with and without REDD+ projects 224 12.3 Negative binomial models of the count of forest carbon projects in a Brazilian municipality or Indonesian district 225 12.4 Characteristics of villages located within and outside REDD+ projects in the GCS sample 227 13.1 The results chain and different types of performance indicators 236 13.2 Examples of performance indicators in national REDD+ initiatives 240 14.1 Overview of projects collaborating with GCS 250 14.2 VCS approved methodologies for REDD projects as of March 2012 252 14.3 Key data and tasks needed to establish an AUDD project’s baseline deforestation/degradation rate and/or location 254 14.4 Remote sensing data requirements for historic (baseline) forest cover change analysis for AUDD methodologies 255 14.5 Required sources of carbon stock estimates in baseline scenarios 257 15.1 Examples of Tier 1 emissions factors for biomass (aboveground and belowground) associated with the conversion of forest to grassland in Africa, calculated by means of the Stock–Difference method and using default values for carbon pools 270 16.1 Dimensions of a stepwise approach to developing reference levels 288 16.2 Options for dealing with uncertainty in setting RLs 297 18.1 Priority actions by type and level 328 A1 Countries included in GCS research 336 A2 Partners in the GCS project 337 A3 Component 1 methods for analysing national REDD+ strategies: description and key objectives 343 A4 REDD+ project sites in GCS Component 2 research 347 A5 Distribution of Component 2 villages by type (control/intervention) and mode (intensive/extensive/non-BACI) where data already collected 353 A6 GCS Component 2 research instruments 354 A7 Methods for analysing national REDD+ strategies: description and key objectives 357 [...]... include REDD+, and perhaps will scale it up even more This book follows two earlier REDD+ volumes from CIFOR, ‘Moving Ahead with REDD: Issues, options and implications’ (2008) and ‘Realising REDD+: National strategy and policy options’ (2009), and provides an analysis of actual REDD+ design and early implementation It takes stock of national, subnational and local REDD+ experiences and identifies the challenges. .. challenges in designing and implementing effective, efficient and equitable REDD+ policies and projects Policy choices to overcome obstacles in scaling up REDD+ are also elaborated As a leader in the UNFCCC negotiations on REDD+ and an implementer of REDD+ in the Philippines, I cannot overemphasise the importance of x  | Foreword the authors’ analysis of both challenges and choices in REDD+ As we move forward... Issues, options and implications’ (2008) and ‘Realising REDD+: National strategy and policy options’ (2009) The current volume, Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices , moves us into second generation research and contains mainly an analysis of actual REDD+ design and early implementation Some first generation research is retained; for example, the chapters in Part 3 (‘Measuring REDD+ ) also address... policy arenas and on the ground? How has REDD+ changed? What does it really look like? Where is REDD+ heading? The subtitle of the book – Challenges and choices – indicates our aim to provide a better understanding of the challenges involved in designing and implementing effective, efficient and equitable REDD+ policies and projects We want to provide comparative evidence on how the challenges materialise... Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices It is a book that climate change negotiators, national and local policy makers, development agencies, forest institutions and organisations, and REDD+ practitioners will find interesting, relevant and useful It provides excellent information and analysis and is released at an opportune moment as the global... the main challenges in designing and implementing REDD+? And, what are the choices that need to be made to enable REDD+ to become more effective, efficient and equitable? Most of the analysis is based on a large comparative research project, the Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (GCS), undertaken by CIFOR and partners REDD+ – as an idea – is a success story REDD+ has been perceived as a quick and cheap... uncertainties for the future climate mitigation regime and a strong global appetite for more land for food, fuel and fibre The changing context, the political and economic battles and the challenges on the ground present dilemmas REDD+ promised to bring a new and fresh approach: large-scale funding and performance-based support This was supposed to make REDD+ different and more successful than past conservation... formulation and decisions for early implementation of both national policy reforms and local and subnational projects The key questions being addressed are: How is REDD+ being decided and implemented, and why? An important sub-question is: What hinders or enables decisions about and implementation of effective, efficient and equitable REDD+ policies and projects? Third generation: assessing the impact of REDD+. .. book Part 2: Implementing REDD+ provides several topical studies on REDD+ discourse at the national and local levels and considers the political economy of designing and implementing REDD+ Part 3: Measuring REDD+ tackles the challenge of how to measure results in a result-based REDD+ 1.3.1  Part 1: Understanding REDD+ Many of the chapters in this book analyse the politics of REDD+ using the 4Is framework... ideologies and beliefs) and information (data and knowledge, their construction and use) (Figure 1.1) The chapter uses these concepts to discuss how transformational change can occur and argues that this might happen for three different reasons: REDD+ has the potential to change fundamental economic incentives; REDD+ brings new information and discourses; and REDD+ brings new actors into the arena and may . Angelsen, Maria Brockhaus, William D. Sunderlin and Louis V. Verchot Analysing REDD+ Challenges and choices CIFOR Analysing REDD+ Challenges and choices Editor Arild Angelsen Co-editors Maria. status and knowledge of REDD+ and local REDD+ project (2010) 198 11.3 Local people’s recommendations for REDD+ projects 206 12.1 Number of REDD+ projects in Brazil and Indonesia by goals and activities. and policy options’ (2009), and provides an analysis of actual REDD+ design and early implementation. It takes stock of national, subnational and local REDD+ experiences and identifies the challenges