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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Russell W. Glenn, Jody Jacobs, Brian Nichiporuk, Christopher Paul, Barbara Raymond, Randall Steeb, Harry J. Thie Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and U.S. Joint Forces Command Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Preparing for the PROVEN INEVI TA B L E An Urban Operations Training Strategy for America’s Joint Force The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2006 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Preparing for the proven inevitable : an urban operations training strategy for America’s joint force / Russell W. Glenn [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-439.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3871-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Urban warfare—United States. 2. Unified operations (Military science)— United States. 3. Soldiers—Training of—United States. 4. Military education— United States. I. Glenn, Russell W. II. Title. U167.5.S7P84 2006 355.5'2—dc22 2005030031 Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth Cover photo images courtesy Captain R. J. Bodisch. The photograph is of First Lieutenant Aaron C. Smithley’s “Comanche-5” tank, Kilo Company, Third Battalion, First Marines during a security mission conducted under the command of Captain Timothy J. Jent. The photograph was taken on November 9, 2004, in the Jolan District of Al Fallujah. The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and U.S. Joint Forces Command. The research was conducted in the the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract DASW01-01-C-0004. iii Preface It is evident to virtually everyone that future military operations will include urban operations far more often than not. In fact, operations in densely populated, built-up areas already frequently dominate U.S. armed forces deployments. Over the past decade, Service training ini- tiatives have reflected a renewed interest in preparing for such contin- gencies. However, members of Congress have expressed concern that these efforts were insufficiently coordinated. Therefore, Congress re- quested that a study be conducted of how the military community might better orchestrate its resources to improve readiness for force- wide urban operations. Three sponsors—the Office of the Secretary of Defense Readiness; J7 U.S. Joint Forces Command; and Joint Urban Operations Office, J9, U.S. Joint Forces Command—asked the RAND Corporation to undertake the task of developing a joint urban training strategy for the period 2005–2011 to assist in meeting this objective. This monograph presents that strategy. It will be of interest to individuals in the government, nongovernmental organizations, pri- vate volunteer organizations, and the commercial sector whose re- sponsibilities include the planning, policy, doctrine, training, fund- ing, and conduct of actions undertaken in or near urban areas in both the immediate future and the longer term. This research was conducted for the Department of Defense within the International Security and Defense Policy Center and the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development cen- iv Preparing for the Proven Inevitable ter sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intel- ligence Community. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at James_Dobbins@rand.org; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at RAND, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050. v Contents Preface iii Figures xi Tables xiii Summary xv Acknowledgments lv Acronyms and Abbreviations lvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1 Background 1 Objective and Scope 7 Approach 9 Step 1: Identify Joint Urban Training Requirements 11 Step 2: Identify Current and Pending Joint Urban Training Capabilities 11 Step 3: Identify the Gap Between Requirements and Capabilities 12 Step 4: Complete Initial Steps Toward a JUT Strategy 12 Step 5: Complete Final Steps Toward a JUT Strategy 13 Organization of This Document 14 CHAPTER TWO Identifying Joint Urban Training Requirements 17 Introduction 17 The Process 18 Step 1: Conducting the Comprehensive Review 18 vi Preparing for the Proven Inevitable Step 2: Conduct a First Screen 19 Step 3: Aggregate and Summarize 24 CHAPTER THREE Determining Current and Planned Joint Urban Training Facilities, Simulations, and Other Training Capabilities 29 Introduction 29 Purpose-Built Urban Training Sites 31 Approach 31 Basic Facility Types 34 Simulation and Simulated Capabilities 40 Simulation-Based Training Systems 42 Enhanced Individual Simulations 48 Large-Scale Composite Simulations and Simulators 52 Special Simulation Cases Considered Only for Longer-Term and Unique Urban Training Applications 54 Important Research Directions in JUT Simulation 57 Near- and Far-Term Milestones in JUT Simulation 60 Innovative/Novel Urban Training Sites/Capabilities 61 Approach 62 Current Alternative Training Options 63 Potential Advantages of Alternative Training Options 75 Drawbacks of Alternative Training Sites 76 CHAPTER FOUR What Are the Shortfalls Between Requirements and Capabilities? 79 Introduction 79 Challenges to Determining Requirements/Capabilities Shortfalls 80 How We Assess Shortfalls Between Requirements and Capacity 81 Whether a Capability Exists 84 Whether Throughput Capacity Exists 95 Environmental Restrictions and Encroachment 98 Identifying the Shortfalls Between Requirements and Capabilities 100 Summary 114 Contents vii CHAPTER FIVE Deriving Joint Urban Operations Training Modules 117 Introduction 117 Why a Modular Approach? 118 The Training Modules 123 First Cut at Training Modules 123 Purpose-Built Facilities 125 Use of Populated Urban Areas 128 Alternative/Other Training Concepts 129 Simulation Capabilities 131 Training Support Elements 134 The Initial Screening 134 The Final List 145 CHAPTER SIX Cost Analysis 147 Methods and Assumptions 148 Cost Analyses for Purpose-Built Facilities 150 Cost Analyses for Use of Populated Urban Areas 164 Cost Analyses for Alternative/Other Training Concepts 165 Cost Analyses for Simulation Capabilities Modules 175 Cost Analyses for Training Support Elements 179 Cost-Related Summary and Observations 182 Joint Training: A Separate Entity or an Augmentation of Service Preparation? 183 Build, Adapt, Rent, or Otherwise Acquire Training Capabilities? 184 Additional Comments About the Proposed Twentynine Palms Urban Training Facility 192 Virtual and Constructive Training: Alternatives or Supplements? 194 Investment Versus Annual Training Budgets 196 CHAPTER SEVEN Developing a DoD-Wide Joint Urban Operations Training Strategy 197 Some Principles for Joint Urban Training 198 The Training Strategy Must Be Comprehensive 199 viii Preparing for the Proven Inevitable The Training Strategy Must Be Dynamic 200 Much Improvement Is Needed in Lower Tactical-Level JUO Training, but the Greatest Shortfalls Are at the Highest Echelons 200 U.S. Trainers Must Remain in “Receive Mode” 201 Joint Training Modules Are Only Some of a Training Strategy’s Building Blocks 202 Systems of Effective Capabilities Underpin Successful Training 202 Even the Best Training and the Most Effective Training Strategy Can Sometimes Not Fully Prepare a Force 203 Size Has a Quality All Its Own 204 Bigger Is Better. Bigger and Denser Is Better Yet 206 If a Capability Exists in the Field, Find a Way to Replicate It for Training 207 The Size of an Organization with Elements In, Around, or Over an Urban Training Site May Not Equate to the Organization Being Trained 207 Simulations, Virtual and Constructive Training, and Synthetic Environments Will Not Be Capable of Fully Replacing Live Training During the 2005–2011 Period 207 It Is Important to Promote Innovation and Reconsider Proven Methods 208 Designing a JUO Training Strategy 209 A JUO Training Strategy for the Immediate Term (2005–2007) 209 A JUO Training Strategy for the Longer Term (2008–2011) 214 Key Considerations for a JUO Training Investment Strategy 223 What to Build 224 How Many Facilities? 228 Where Is It Best to Locate Battalion- and Larger-Capable BRAC, Hybrid, or Other Types of Urban Training Facilities? 230 Assessing the Upgrade Candidates: Creating Facilities Capable of Supporting Major JUO Training Events 240 Challenges for JUO Training Strategy Implementation 245 Whether to Build, Adapt, Rent, or Otherwise Acquire Training Capabilities 245 Joint Range Coordination 247 [...]... often proven unpleasantly difficult for U.S forces Despite the passage of more than a decade since the end of the Cold War and the momentous change in the strategic environment, the U.S armed forces have thus far been unable to adequately reproduce the challenges their soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen meet in the towns and cities of Afghanistan and Iraq That is not to imply that the Services of the. .. Corps, and Air Force— and other critical components of national capability can better ready themselves cooperatively for future operations in cities around the world The result is a joint urban training (JUT) strategy for the period 2005–2011 The foundation for this strategy is the current Doctrine for Joint Urban Operations presented in the joint publication of that name (JP 3-06) The guidance in... Fiscal Year 2003 Report [to Accompany S 2514] on Authorizing Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2003 for Military Activities of the Department of Defense, for Military Construction, and for Defense Activities of the Department of Energy, to Prescribe Personnel Strengths for Such Fiscal Year for the Armed Forces, and for Other Purposes Together with Additional and Minority Views,” Senate Committee on Armed Services... identified, as may well be the case during periods of intense force commitment, no one may have previously recognized the need to train for it, regardless of whether a capability to do so exists xxvi Preparing for the Proven Inevitable 7 Training prioritization Unit commanders may choose to spend available training time or other resources on things other than JUT requirements The bulk of our study’s... venue These include the size/scope of the facility, how much urban complexity is represented at the site, types of forces accommodated, instrumentation in support of urban training, the existence of opposing force (OPFOR) and noncombatant role players, and the range of live-fire activities allowed at the site It is not enough to merely have a particular resource on hand for use by U.S joint force elements... buildings they might replicate, the notional behaviors of opposing forces and noncombatants fall far short of reproducing the xxviii Preparing for the Proven Inevitable range of actual interactions and the scope of higher-order effects potentially precipitated by each action and decision Analogous oversimplification likewise inhibits the effectiveness of urban exercises that attempt to replicate the operational... Much of the training and other preparation for urban contingencies applies to portions of the conflict spectrum well beyond operations in villages, towns, and cities The greater densities and increased complexities found in urban areas mean that more often than not, a force prepared for action in built-up areas can readily adapt to other environments The reverse is less often the case: Preparing for missions... xiii xiv Preparing for the Proven Inevitable 6.8 Cost Estimates for an Air-Ground Purpose-Built Facility in Salt Lake City, UT 163 6.9 Cost Estimates for Renting Playas, NM 167 6.10 Cost Estimates for Muscatatuck 168 6.11 Cost Estimates for a BRAC’d Military Installation (George AFB) 170 6.12 Cost Estimates for a BRAC’d Realigned Installation 172 6.13 Cost Estimates for J8 Alternative... capabilities in terms of these constraints On the basis of the issues raised above and historical study, interviews with serving officers of all Services, and recent reports from active operations, we identified the shortfalls most critical to adequately preparing the U.S joint force for urban undertakings As a result of these combined analyses, we also determined that the U.S armed forces are thus far... years of work in the urban operations field helped in expanding initial lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense–Readiness Searches of the U.S armed forces Non-Classified Internet Protocol Network (NIPRNET), as Summary xxiii well as the Internet, expanded the roster and enhanced the information available on individual sites These sources frequently contained references to other pertinent . Steeb, Harry J. Thie Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and U.S. Joint Forces Command Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Preparing for the PROVEN INEVI TA B L E An. of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intel- ligence Community. For more information on. subsequently often proven unpleasantly difficult for U.S. forces. Despite the pas- sage of more than a decade since the end of the Cold War and the momentous change in the strategic environment, the U.S.