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Russell W. Glenn, Jody Jacobs, Brian Nichiporuk, Christopher Paul,
Barbara Raymond, Randall Steeb, Harry J. Thie
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Preparing for the
PROVEN
INEVI TA B L E
An Urban Operations Training Strategy
for America’s Joint Force
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facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s
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© Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Preparing for the proven inevitable : an urban operations training strategy for America’s
joint force / Russell W. Glenn [et al.].
p. cm.
“MG-439.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8330-3871-0 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Urban warfare—United States. 2. Unified operations (Military science)—
United States. 3. Soldiers—Training of—United States. 4. Military education—
United States. I. Glenn, Russell W. II. Title.
U167.5.S7P84 2006
355.5'2—dc22
2005030031
Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth
Cover photo images courtesy Captain R. J. Bodisch. The photograph is of First Lieutenant
Aaron C. Smithley’s “Comanche-5” tank, Kilo Company, Third Battalion, First Marines
during a security mission conducted under the command of Captain Timothy J. Jent. The
photograph was taken on November 9, 2004, in the Jolan District of Al Fallujah.
The research described in this report was prepared for the Office
of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and U.S. Joint Forces Command.
The research was conducted in the the RAND National Defense
Research Institute, a federally funded research and development
center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant
Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the
defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under
Contract DASW01-01-C-0004.
iii
Preface
It is evident to virtually everyone that future military operations will
include urban operations far more often than not. In fact, operations
in densely populated, built-up areas already frequently dominate U.S.
armed forces deployments. Over the past decade, Service training ini-
tiatives have reflected a renewed interest in preparing for such contin-
gencies. However, members of Congress have expressed concern that
these efforts were insufficiently coordinated. Therefore, Congress re-
quested that a study be conducted of how the military community
might better orchestrate its resources to improve readiness for force-
wide urban operations. Three sponsors—the Office of the Secretary
of Defense Readiness; J7 U.S. Joint Forces Command; and Joint
Urban Operations Office, J9, U.S. Joint Forces Command—asked
the RAND Corporation to undertake the task of developing a joint
urban training strategy for the period 2005–2011 to assist in meeting
this objective.
This monograph presents that strategy. It will be of interest to
individuals in the government, nongovernmental organizations, pri-
vate volunteer organizations, and the commercial sector whose re-
sponsibilities include the planning, policy, doctrine, training, fund-
ing, and conduct of actions undertaken in or near urban areas in both
the immediate future and the longer term.
This research was conducted for the Department of Defense
within the International Security and Defense Policy Center and the
Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense
Research Institute, a federally funded research and development cen-
iv Preparing for the Proven Inevitable
ter sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint
Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the
Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intel-
ligence Community.
For more information on RAND’s International Security and
Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He
can be reached by email at James_Dobbins@rand.org; by phone at
703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at RAND, 1200 South
Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050.
v
Contents
Preface iii
Figures
xi
Tables
xiii
Summary
xv
Acknowledgments
lv
Acronyms and Abbreviations
lvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction 1
Background
1
Objective and Scope
7
Approach
9
Step 1: Identify Joint Urban Training Requirements
11
Step 2: Identify Current and Pending Joint Urban Training
Capabilities
11
Step 3: Identify the Gap Between Requirements and Capabilities
12
Step 4: Complete Initial Steps Toward a JUT Strategy
12
Step 5: Complete Final Steps Toward a JUT Strategy
13
Organization of This Document
14
CHAPTER TWO
Identifying Joint Urban Training Requirements 17
Introduction
17
The Process
18
Step 1: Conducting the Comprehensive Review
18
vi Preparing for the Proven Inevitable
Step 2: Conduct a First Screen 19
Step 3: Aggregate and Summarize
24
CHAPTER THREE
Determining Current and Planned Joint Urban Training Facilities,
Simulations, and Other Training Capabilities
29
Introduction
29
Purpose-Built Urban Training Sites
31
Approach
31
Basic Facility Types
34
Simulation and Simulated Capabilities
40
Simulation-Based Training Systems
42
Enhanced Individual Simulations
48
Large-Scale Composite Simulations and Simulators
52
Special Simulation Cases Considered Only for Longer-Term
and Unique Urban Training Applications
54
Important Research Directions in JUT Simulation
57
Near- and Far-Term Milestones in JUT Simulation
60
Innovative/Novel Urban Training Sites/Capabilities
61
Approach
62
Current Alternative Training Options
63
Potential Advantages of Alternative Training Options
75
Drawbacks of Alternative Training Sites
76
CHAPTER FOUR
What Are the Shortfalls Between Requirements and Capabilities? 79
Introduction
79
Challenges to Determining Requirements/Capabilities Shortfalls
80
How We Assess Shortfalls Between Requirements and Capacity
81
Whether a Capability Exists
84
Whether Throughput Capacity Exists
95
Environmental Restrictions and Encroachment
98
Identifying the Shortfalls Between Requirements and Capabilities
100
Summary
114
Contents vii
CHAPTER FIVE
Deriving Joint Urban Operations Training Modules 117
Introduction
117
Why a Modular Approach?
118
The Training Modules
123
First Cut at Training Modules
123
Purpose-Built Facilities
125
Use of Populated Urban Areas
128
Alternative/Other Training Concepts
129
Simulation Capabilities
131
Training Support Elements
134
The Initial Screening
134
The Final List
145
CHAPTER SIX
Cost Analysis 147
Methods and Assumptions
148
Cost Analyses for Purpose-Built Facilities
150
Cost Analyses for Use of Populated Urban Areas
164
Cost Analyses for Alternative/Other Training Concepts
165
Cost Analyses for Simulation Capabilities Modules
175
Cost Analyses for Training Support Elements
179
Cost-Related Summary and Observations
182
Joint Training: A Separate Entity or an Augmentation of Service
Preparation?
183
Build, Adapt, Rent, or Otherwise Acquire Training Capabilities?
184
Additional Comments About the Proposed Twentynine Palms
Urban Training Facility
192
Virtual and Constructive Training: Alternatives or Supplements?
194
Investment Versus Annual Training Budgets
196
CHAPTER SEVEN
Developing a DoD-Wide Joint Urban Operations Training
Strategy
197
Some Principles for Joint Urban Training
198
The Training Strategy Must Be Comprehensive
199
viii Preparing for the Proven Inevitable
The Training Strategy Must Be Dynamic 200
Much Improvement Is Needed in Lower Tactical-Level JUO
Training, but the Greatest Shortfalls Are at the Highest
Echelons
200
U.S. Trainers Must Remain in “Receive Mode”
201
Joint Training Modules Are Only Some of a Training Strategy’s
Building Blocks
202
Systems of Effective Capabilities Underpin Successful Training
202
Even the Best Training and the Most Effective Training Strategy
Can Sometimes Not Fully Prepare a Force
203
Size Has a Quality All Its Own
204
Bigger Is Better. Bigger and Denser Is Better Yet
206
If a Capability Exists in the Field, Find a Way to Replicate It for
Training
207
The Size of an Organization with Elements In, Around, or Over
an Urban Training Site May Not Equate to the Organization
Being Trained
207
Simulations, Virtual and Constructive Training, and Synthetic
Environments Will Not Be Capable of Fully Replacing Live
Training During the 2005–2011 Period
207
It Is Important to Promote Innovation and Reconsider Proven
Methods
208
Designing a JUO Training Strategy
209
A JUO Training Strategy for the Immediate Term (2005–2007)
209
A JUO Training Strategy for the Longer Term (2008–2011)
214
Key Considerations for a JUO Training Investment Strategy
223
What to Build
224
How Many Facilities?
228
Where Is It Best to Locate Battalion- and Larger-Capable BRAC,
Hybrid, or Other Types of Urban Training Facilities?
230
Assessing the Upgrade Candidates: Creating Facilities Capable
of Supporting Major JUO Training Events
240
Challenges for JUO Training Strategy Implementation
245
Whether to Build, Adapt, Rent, or Otherwise Acquire Training
Capabilities
245
Joint Range Coordination
247
[...]... often proven unpleasantly difficult for U.S forces Despite the passage of more than a decade since the end of the Cold War and the momentous change in the strategic environment, the U.S armed forces have thus far been unable to adequately reproduce the challenges their soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen meet in the towns and cities of Afghanistan and Iraq That is not to imply that the Services of the. .. Corps, and Air Force— and other critical components of national capability can better ready themselves cooperatively for future operations in cities around the world The result is a joint urban training (JUT) strategy for the period 2005–2011 The foundation for this strategy is the current Doctrine for Joint Urban Operations presented in the joint publication of that name (JP 3-06) The guidance in... Fiscal Year 2003 Report [to Accompany S 2514] on Authorizing Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2003 for Military Activities of the Department of Defense, for Military Construction, and for Defense Activities of the Department of Energy, to Prescribe Personnel Strengths for Such Fiscal Year for the Armed Forces, and for Other Purposes Together with Additional and Minority Views,” Senate Committee on Armed Services... identified, as may well be the case during periods of intense force commitment, no one may have previously recognized the need to train for it, regardless of whether a capability to do so exists xxvi Preparing for the Proven Inevitable 7 Training prioritization Unit commanders may choose to spend available training time or other resources on things other than JUT requirements The bulk of our study’s... venue These include the size/scope of the facility, how much urban complexity is represented at the site, types of forces accommodated, instrumentation in support of urban training, the existence of opposing force (OPFOR) and noncombatant role players, and the range of live-fire activities allowed at the site It is not enough to merely have a particular resource on hand for use by U.S joint force elements... buildings they might replicate, the notional behaviors of opposing forces and noncombatants fall far short of reproducing the xxviii Preparing for the Proven Inevitable range of actual interactions and the scope of higher-order effects potentially precipitated by each action and decision Analogous oversimplification likewise inhibits the effectiveness of urban exercises that attempt to replicate the operational... Much of the training and other preparation for urban contingencies applies to portions of the conflict spectrum well beyond operations in villages, towns, and cities The greater densities and increased complexities found in urban areas mean that more often than not, a force prepared for action in built-up areas can readily adapt to other environments The reverse is less often the case: Preparing for missions... xiii xiv Preparing for the Proven Inevitable 6.8 Cost Estimates for an Air-Ground Purpose-Built Facility in Salt Lake City, UT 163 6.9 Cost Estimates for Renting Playas, NM 167 6.10 Cost Estimates for Muscatatuck 168 6.11 Cost Estimates for a BRAC’d Military Installation (George AFB) 170 6.12 Cost Estimates for a BRAC’d Realigned Installation 172 6.13 Cost Estimates for J8 Alternative... capabilities in terms of these constraints On the basis of the issues raised above and historical study, interviews with serving officers of all Services, and recent reports from active operations, we identified the shortfalls most critical to adequately preparing the U.S joint force for urban undertakings As a result of these combined analyses, we also determined that the U.S armed forces are thus far... years of work in the urban operations field helped in expanding initial lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense–Readiness Searches of the U.S armed forces Non-Classified Internet Protocol Network (NIPRNET), as Summary xxiii well as the Internet, expanded the roster and enhanced the information available on individual sites These sources frequently contained references to other pertinent . Steeb, Harry J. Thie Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and U.S. Joint Forces Command Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Preparing for the PROVEN INEVI TA B L E An. of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intel- ligence Community. For more information on. subsequently often proven unpleasantly difficult for U.S. forces. Despite the pas- sage of more than a decade since the end of the Cold War and the momentous change in the strategic environment, the U.S.
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