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by Joe Duarte, MD
Market Timing
FOR
DUMmIES
‰
Market Timing For Dummies
®
Published by
Wiley Publishing, Inc.
111 River St.
Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774
www.wiley.com
Copyright © 2009 by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2008939707
ISBN: 978-0-470-38975-1
Manufactured in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
About the Author
Dr. Joe Duarte (www.joe-duarte.com) is best known for his candid, no-
nonsense, and prescient expert commentary on the nancial and commodity
markets, such as his on-the-money call on CNBC, June 4, 2008, when he cor-
rectly noted that oil had made a top and that a fall below $110 would take
prices to $100 or less. By September 2008, oil had broken below $100. He
is a widely read analyst and writer and an active trader. His daily Market IQ
column is read by thousands of investors, market timers, and professional
traders around the world.
Dr. Duarte is the author Futures & Options For Dummies, Trading Futures For
Dummies, Successful Biotech Investing, and Successful Energy Sector Investing.
His combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and
global intelligence on the nancial markets offers a unique blend of insight
and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelli-
gence a cionados around the world on a daily basis.
Dr. Duarte’s Market Moves column is syndicated to a global audience through
FinancialWire, a leading independent syndicate of nancial information. He is
also a featured columnist on the popular investor Web site Stockhouse.com.
Dr. Duarte is a frequent guest on CNBC and is an original CNBC Market Maven.
He is a regular guest on the Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava radio
show, where he comments on the energy markets and geopolitics.
Dr. Duarte has been writing about the nancial markets since 1990. His
articles and commentary have been featured on Marketwatch.com and in
Barron’s, Smart Money, Medical Economics, and Technical Analysis of Stocks
and Commodities magazines. He has been quoted in the Associated Press,
CNN.com, The Wall Street Journal, Smart Money Magazine, and Investor’s
Business Daily.
In 2003, Dr. Duarte received second place in the professional section of the
Medical Economics Investment Challenge with a 12-month return of 42 percent.
Dr. Duarte published the critically acclaimed market-timing newsletter “The
Wall Street Detective” from 1990–1998, when it became an exclusively elec-
tronic publication. It later was converted to Joe-Duarte.com. His daily market
commentary “Joe Knows” appeared on Financialweb.com from 1998–2000.
Dr. Duarte served as senior columnist for Investorlinks.com from 1998-2001.
He is a registered investment advisor and president of River Willow Capital
Management.
He lives in Dallas, Texas, plays a Gibson ES-135, and loves his vintage Völkl
tennis racket.
Dedication
To family, friends, and market timers around the universe.
Acknowledgments
Writing a book is a unique, lonely, and personal experience, and very few but
the author, the editor(s), and those who share the space-time continuum with
them can understand this. During this one, I had my share of ups and downs
as well as rewards. So I can’t complain. Still, I couldn’t have done it without the
usual gang that helps me on a daily basis. So here’s a big thanks to:
My family, my of ce staffs from my other life, the Wiley editorial staff, espe-
cially Stacy and Traci who helped shepherd me to the nal goal, nearly on
time for once.
Grace “the wonder agent” and purveyor of recurrent gigs. Thank you for
sticking with me.
Frank “the master of all things Web-related,” without whom there would be
no Joe-Duarte.com. Too bad you couldn’t come along on this little expedition.
To Stone Barrington, Michelle Maxwell, and Sean King, Gabriel Allon, Oliver
Stone (the literary character, not the movie director), and other inhabitants
of pages and audio books that help me stay sane as I work and travel.
As always coffee, tea, vitamins, sports drinks, nutrition bars, and the game of
tennis also help.
Special thanks to those who read my books, subscribe to my Web site and
have kept this thing going for 18 years. Who’d’ve thunk it?
And also to two longtime friends, John and Greg, whose interactions with me
always prove to be worthwhile and interesting, to say the least.
My patients who so graciously come back the next day even if I’ve had to run
out of the of ce in a hurry to be on CNBC.
If I’ve forgotten to mention anyone, it wasn’t intentional. I’m not as young as I
used to be.
Publisher’s Acknowledgments
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Composition Services
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Debbie Stailey, Director of Composition Services
Contents at a Glance
Introduction 1
Part I: Stepping into the World of Market Timing 7
Chapter 1: Becoming a Market Timer 9
Chapter 2: Peering Inside the Mind of a Market Timer 25
Chapter 3: Preparing Yourself and Your Finances for Timing 35
Chapter 4: Charting Your Course: The Market Timer’s Edge 45
Part II: Market Timing’s Methods and Strategies 67
Chapter 5: Timing with the Reports That Move the Markets 69
Chapter 6: The Seasons and Cycles That In uence the Markets 87
Chapter 7: Digging In to Trends, Momentum, and Results 97
Chapter 8: Timing with Feeling: Making Market Sentiment Work for You 115
Part III: Applying Timing to the Markets 129
Chapter 9: Timing in the Real World: Examining a Sample Trade 131
Chapter 10: Timing the Stock Market 145
Chapter 11: Timing the Bond Market 161
Chapter 12: Timing Foreign Markets 175
Chapter 13: Timing the Metals, Heavy or Not 185
Chapter 14: Timing Commodities: Making Money Down on the Farm 197
Chapter 15: Timing Currencies and Related Markets 213
Part IV: Timing the Sectors 227
Chapter 16: The Timer’s Dream: Sector Investing 229
Chapter 17: Timing Financial Service Stocks 241
Chapter 18: Timing the Technologies 259
Chapter 19: Timing the Energy Sector 277
Chapter 20: Timing the Health Care Sector 295
Part V: The Part of Tens 309
Chapter 21: Ten Game Savers to Know and Trust 311
Chapter 22: Ten-Plus Awesome Resources 319
Index 325
Table of Contents
Introduction 1
About This Book 1
Conventions Used in This Book 2
Foolish Assumptions 3
How This Book Is Organized 4
Part I: Stepping Into the World of Market Timing 4
Part II: Market Timing’s Methods and Strategies 4
Part III: Applying Timing to the Markets 5
Part IV: Timing the Sectors 5
Part V: The Part of Tens 5
Icons Used in This Book 6
Where to Go from Here 6
Part I: Stepping into the World of Market Timing 7
Chapter 1: Becoming a Market Timer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
De ning Market Timing 10
Terms of Engagement for Timing 11
Timing Technique: The Secret of Success 13
Running Down Reasons to Market Time 15
The Nuts and Bolts of Market Timing 17
Financing your possibilities 17
Analyzing the markets 19
Setting your timing ritual 20
Setting Realistic Expectations 21
You can’t predict the future 22
You can’t win every time 22
Measure your success reasonably 22
Enjoying the Process and the Fruits of Your Labor 23
Chapter 2: Peering Inside the Mind of a Market Timer. . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Finding Out How Wall Street Really Works 25
Introducing the Federal Reserve 26
Uncovering the Psychology of Timing 30
Vigilance: Being a steady, not a fast Eddie 30
Preparation: Acknowledging the Boy Scout in all of us 31
Execution: Pulling the trigger on the trade 32
Picking Your Battles and Battle elds 33
Market Timing For Dummies
x
Chapter 3: Preparing Yourself and Your Finances for Timing . . . . . . .35
De ning the Role of Timing in Your Financial Plan 35
Financing Your Timing 38
Considering Personal Matters 39
Determining Your Net Worth 40
Getting Tooled Up for Timing 41
Setting up your trading account 41
Building your timing toolkit 42
Chapter 4: Charting Your Course: The Market Timer’s Edge . . . . . . . .45
De ning the Primary Trend 45
Introducing the Four Amigos: Signals That the Trend Is Changing 48
Taking stock of the trend reversal 48
Riding the highs of breakouts 49
Getting through the lows of breakdowns 50
Introducing Commonly Used Charts 54
Candlestick charts 54
Bar charts and associated tools 55
Understanding Moving Averages 56
Trend and Momentum Oscillators 57
The “Big Mac” of technical analysis: The MACD oscillator 58
Finding relative strength with RSI 59
Getting a Grip on Bollinger Bands 59
Looking into the future 60
Thinking outside the bands 60
Making Technical Analysis Work: An Overview 61
Looking for the setup 62
Buying on strength and on dips 62
Using trend lines as buy and sell points 64
Running down other important technical formations 64
Part II: Market Timing’s Methods and Strategies 67
Chapter 5: Timing with the Reports That Move the Markets . . . . . . . .69
Understanding the U.S. and the Global Economies 70
Homing in on an example 71
Keeping tabs on the data mill 73
Getting a Handle on the Reports 74
Exploring Speci c Economic Reports 76
Using the employment report 76
Taking in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) 78
Perusing the Producer Price Index (PPI) 78
Making sense of the ISM and purchasing managers’ reports 79
Considering consumer con dence 80
Poring over the Beige Book 82
Focusing on housing starts 83
xi
Table of Contents
Taking in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators 84
Grasping Gross Domestic Product 85
Trading the Big Reports 86
Chapter 6: The Seasons and Cycles That Infl uence the Markets . . . .87
Getting the Big Seasonal Picture 88
Glimpsing the Monthly Tendencies 89
The January effect 90
The turn of the month 91
Timing Summers, Holidays, and Santa Claus 91
Summer folly 92
Holiday fun 92
Santa Claus is coming to town 92
Cycling with the Presidents 93
Examining the cycles during two presidents’ terms 93
Using the cycle cautiously 95
Chapter 7: Digging In to Trends, Momentum, and Results . . . . . . . . . .97
Trending with the Times 97
Looking for trends by time 98
Secularizing the trend 99
Using the short-term trend properly 101
Looking at the long-term trend 103
Spotting trend changes in the intermediate term 105
Examining Market Breadth 109
Consulting the NYSE advance-decline line 110
Analyzing the McClellan Summation Index 112
Chapter 8: Timing with Feeling: Making Market
Sentiment Work for You . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115
Getting in Touch with Your Contrarian Self 116
Going with Your Gut — and Your Charts 116
Identifying greed cycles 117
Identifying fear cycles 119
Using Bellwether Stocks 120
Gauging Feeling with Sentiment Surveys 122
Using Trading Volume As a Sentiment Tool 123
Finessing “Soft” Sentiment Indicators 125
Part III: Applying Timing to the Markets 129
Chapter 9: Timing in the Real World: Examining
a Sample Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .131
Setting the Stage for a Sample Trade 131
Sorting through a major mess 132
Charting your way to the next step 133
Market Timing For Dummies
xii
Getting the long-term picture 133
Viewing the intermediate term 134
Getting Ready to Trade 137
Looking for the right opportunity 138
Tracking the trade 139
Fine-tuning your exit point as things progress 140
Reviewing your timing endeavor 141
Finding a Sequence for Successful Trading 142
Chapter 10: Timing the Stock Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145
Timing the Whole Enchilada 146
Starting with the S&P 500 146
Timing and taming the Nasdaq 100 149
Timing the Dow Jones Industrial Average 151
Timing Individual Stocks 152
Bottom shing 153
Riding the momentum roller coaster 154
Shorting the losers 158
Chapter 11: Timing the Bond Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .161
What Makes the Bond Market Tick 162
The give and take between Fed and bond market 162
Finding general hints about bonds 164
Tying economic reports to the bond market 165
Making Bond Timing Work 166
Reasons to time bonds 167
Buying bonds for hedging and diversi cation 168
Allocating time and money to bond timing 168
Finding the right time for bonds 169
Chapter 12: Timing Foreign Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .175
The Whole World Is One Market 176
Considering the Currency Effect 177
Timing Foreign Markets 178
Getting started 179
Dividing up your timing world 179
Choosing International ETFs 181
Chapter 13: Timing the Metals, Heavy or Not . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185
Getting the Golden Touch 186
Treading carefully with gold stocks 188
Choosing the best route for trading gold 189
Rounding out the precious sector 189
The Industrial Truth: Timing Copper and Other Metals 189
Mining copper trades 190
Trading steel, ubiquitous steel 192
Getting into aluminum 193
Using ETFs to Trade the Metals 194
[...]... Futures For Dummies (by yours truly) and George A Fontanills’s book Trading Options For Dummies for the full details ✓ Market sectors: A specific area of the market, such as technology or health care Market timing of individual sectors of the market is essential in both bull and bear markets and can be very profitable See Part IV for more details on sector investing ✓ Trends: Time periods in the markets... trade for short periods of time That’s not something I recommend for you at the start of your timing career, but it is worthwhile as you gain experience Check out my book Trading Futures For Dummies (Wiley) for a good overview of leveraged ETFs and how to use them for timing Parts 3 and 4 of this book also give you more detail on using ETFs for timing individual sectors of the market Analyzing the markets... Stepping Into the World of Market Timing In this part, I ease you into the wide world of market timing, introducing you to its basic tenets and showing you the tools you use to time the markets You find out about the principles that market timers use, and the charts they use to get the timing job done Read this part to stock up on the raw materials of market timing Part II: Market Timing s Methods and Strategies... introduce you to the world of market timing and show you how you can be in control of your investment results Defining Market Timing Market timing is the act of entering and exiting trades (buying and selling at the most opportune time) in any market, whether, stocks, bonds, futures, or options When timing the markets your goals are to ✓ Decrease your exposure to risk As a market timer you want to stay... been a market timer for 20-plus years and have found the concepts that I’ve put forth in this book quite useful I hope that you do, too Part I Stepping into the World of Market Timing N In this part ew to market timing? This part of the book takes you through the basics you need to get started In it, I show you how to think like a market timer and how to use the tools that lead to successful timing. .. rises, the short seller loses money And stocks can fall only to zero, but they can theoretically rise forever 11 12 Part I: Stepping into the World of Market Timing ✓ Bull markets: Markets that are rising ✓ Bear markets: The opposites of bull markets; the tendency of prices during these periods is for markets to fall ✓ Leverage: The practice used by traders in which less than the full amounts of money... do Try to hit a tennis ball without timing your stroke Or try to run a yellow light before that camera goes off behind you without timing So why is it that if you’re talking about getting married or buying a house, people say that timing is everything,” but when you talk about market timing, people roll their eyes and tell you that it’s impossible? In fact, market timing isn’t just possible; it’s central... the process — and the results A n old market cliché says “there’s always a bull market. ” In other words, if you look hard enough you can find a market that is trending, up or down, and that you use to make money Because there’s always a bull market, market timing may be the trading method of the 21st century, given the potential for volatility in the world and the markets, and the change that’s likely... the markets on a daily basis with the goal of anticipating significant changes in the overall trend of the markets and then acting upon them decisively before they advance to the point where you’ve missed a significant opportunity to make money Before you become a market timer, you need to understand trading, which is what market timing is all about It may help you to think of trading as investing for. .. often as well as ten ways to keep your timing practice on track without losing your shirt or your sanity 5 6 Market Timing For Dummies Icons Used in This Book I use icons to emphasize and reinforce information throughout the book Here’s a list of the icons you find and what you can expect from the text they highlight When I present a concept that is important for you to keep in mind as you read, I . by Joe Duarte, MD Market Timing FOR DUMmIES ‰ Market Timing For Dummies ® Published by Wiley Publishing, Inc. 111 River St. Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774 www.wiley.com Copyright. 10: Timing the Stock Market 145 Chapter 11: Timing the Bond Market 161 Chapter 12: Timing Foreign Markets 175 Chapter 13: Timing the Metals, Heavy or Not 185 Chapter 14: Timing Commodities: Making. the World of Market Timing 7 Chapter 1: Becoming a Market Timer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 De ning Market Timing 10 Terms of Engagement for Timing 11 Timing Technique:
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