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World Economic Outlook, September 2011
World Economic Outlook
Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
World Economic Outlook
Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
World Economic and Financial Surveys
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
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SEP
IMF
SEP
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
September 2011
Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
International Monetary Fund
World Economic and Financial Surveys
©2011 International Monetary Fund
Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar
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World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook : a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. —
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International Monetary Fund | September 2011 iii
Assumptions and Conventions ix
Further Information and Data x
Preface xi
Foreword xiii
Executive Summary xv
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1
Slowing Global Activity 1
Renewed Financial Instability 1
More Uneven Expansion 3
Economic Slack alongside Signs of Overheating 9
Risks Are Clearly to the Downside 11
Policy Challenges 19
National Perspectives on Policy Challenges 19
Multilateral Perspectives on Policy Challenges 27
Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects 32
References 66
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 71
e United States: Weakening Again amid Daunting Debt Challenges 72
Europe: Enduring Economic and Financial Turbulence 76
Commonwealth of Independent States: Moderate Growth Performance 80
Asia: Securing a More Balanced Expansion 84
Latin America and the Caribbean: Moving toward More Sustainable Growth 88
Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining the Expansion 92
Middle East and North Africa: Growth Stalling amid Uncertainty 96
References 99
Chapter 3. Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary Policy 101
Commodity Price Swings and Ination 104
Monetary Policy and Food Price Shocks: A Simulation-Based Perspective 110
Policy Implications for Responding to Commodity Price Shocks 118
Appendix 3.1. Economies in the Data Set 122
Appendix 3.2. Technical Appendix 122
References 132
CONTENTS
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SLOWING GROWTH, RISING RISKS
iv International Monetary Fund | September 2011
Chapter 4. Separated at Birth? The Twin Budget and Trade Balances 135
Estimating the Strength of the Twin Decits Link 137
Insights from Model-Based Simulations 145
Summary and Implications for the Outlook 151
Appendix 4.1 Data Construction and Sources 152
Appendix 4.2 Statistical Methodology, Robustness Checks, and Selected Additional
Results on Export and Import Responses 153
Appendix 4.3 Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) 156
References 159
Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, August 2011 161
Statistical Appendix 163
Assumptions 163
What’s New 164
Data and Conventions 164
Classication of Countries 165
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classication 165
Table A. Classication by World Economic Outlook Groups and eir Shares
in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2010 167
Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 168
Table C. European Union 168
Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source
of Export Earnings 169
Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position,
and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries 170
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 172
List of Tables 177
Output (Tables A1–A4) 178
Ination (Tables A5–A7) 186
Financial Policies (Table A8) 192
Foreign Trade (Table A9) 193
Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 195
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13–A15) 202
Flow of Funds (Table A16) 206
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17) 210
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 211
Boxes
Box 1.1. Slow Recovery to Nowhere? A Sectoral View of Labor Markets in Advanced Economies 41
Box 1.2. Credit Boom-Bust Cycles: eir Triggers and Policy Implications 47
Box 1.3. Are Equity Price Drops Harbingers of Recession? 51
Box 1.4. Financial Investment, Speculation, and Commodity Prices 56
Box 1.5. External Liabilities and Crisis Tipping Points 61
Box 3.1. Ination in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 2008 Commodity Price Surge 125
Box 3.2. Food Price Swings and Monetary Policy in Open Economies 130
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 172
CONTENTS
International Monetary Fund | September 2011 v
CONTENTS
Tables
Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 2
Table 1.2. Global Oil Demand and Production by Region 35
Table 1.2.1. What Triggers Credit Booms? 49
Table 1.3.1. Summary Statistics for Real Equity Price Growth 51
Table 1.3.2. Predicting New Recessions with Financial Market Variables 53
Table 1.5.1. Probit Estimates of Crisis Probability 63
Table 1.5.2. Model’s Predictive Power 64
Table 2.1. Selected Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account
Balance, and Unemployment 75
Table 2.2. Selected European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account
Balance, and Unemployment 78
Table 2.3. Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment 83
Table 2.4. Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance,
and Unemployment 85
Table 2.5. Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment 91
Table 2.6. Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment 95
Table 2.7. Selected Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 99
Table 3.1. Gasoline Pass-through from Oil Prices 107
Table 3.2. Flour and Bread Pass-through from Wheat Prices 107
Table 3.1.1. Variations in Ination: Sub-Saharan Africa 127
Table 3.1.2. Food Ination Dynamics 128
Table 3.1.3. Ination Dynamics 129
Table 3.1.4. Macroeconomics Environment: Sub-Saharan Africa 129
Table 4.1. Data Sources 152
Table A1. Summary of World Output 178
Table A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand 179
Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP 180
Table A4. Emerging and Developing Economies by Country: Real GDP 182
Table A5. Summary of Ination 186
Table A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices 187
Table A7. Emerging and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices 188
Table A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt 192
Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices 193
Table A10. Summary of Balances on Current Account 195
Table A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account 197
Table A12. Emerging and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account 198
Table A13. Emerging and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows 202
Table A14. Emerging and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows 203
Table A15. Emerging and Developing Economies: Reserves 204
Table A16. Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings 206
Table A17. Summary of Word Medium-Term Baseline Scenario 210
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SLOWING GROWTH, RISING RISKS
vi International Monetary Fund | September 2011
Online Tables
Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real per Capita GDP
Table B2. Emerging and Developing Economies: Real GDP
Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs
in Manufacturing
Table B4. Emerging and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
Table B5. Summary of Financial Indicators
Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing
and Excluding Social Security Schemes
Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances
Table B8. Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
Table B9. Emerging and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
and Overall Fiscal Balance
Table B10. Emerging and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates
Table B11. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade
in Goods and Services
Table B12. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods
Table B13. Emerging and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings:
Total Trade in Goods
Table B14. Advanced Economies: Current Account Transactions
Table B15. Emerging and Developing Economies: Balances on Current Account
Table B16. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Current Account Transactions
Table B17. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria:
Current Account Transactions
Table B18. Summary of Balance of Payments, Financial Flows, and External Financing
Table B19. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Balance of Payments
and External Financing
Table B20. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Balance of Payments
and External Financing
Table B21. Summary of External Debt and Debt Service
Table B22. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity
and Type of Creditor
Table B23. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt,
by Maturity and Type of Creditor
Table B24. Emerging and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP
Table B25. Emerging and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios
Table B26. Emerging and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario:
Selected Economic Indicators
Figures
Figure 1.1. Global Indicators 3
Figure 1.2. Financial Strains in Europe and the United States 4
Figure 1.3. Recent Financial Market Developments 5
Figure 1.4. Prospects for Near-Term Activity 6
Figure 1.5. Global Outlook 7
Figure 1.6. Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators 8
Figure 1.7. Balance Sheets and Saving Rates 9
CONTENTS
International Monetary Fund | September 2011 vii
CONTENTS
Figure 1.8. Emerging Market Conditions 10
Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies with Strong Credit Expansion 11
Figure 1.10. Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced
and Emerging Market Economies 12
Figure 1.11. General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt 13
Figure 1.12. Cyclical Conditions 14
Figure 1.13. Global Projection Model Estimates of the Output Gap 15
Figure 1.14. Global Ination 16
Figure 1.15. Risks to the Global Outlook 17
Figure 1.16. WEO Downside Scenario 18
Figure 1.17. Overheating Indicators for the G20 Economies 22
Figure 1.18. Policy Requirements in Emerging Market Economies 23
Figure 1.19. External Developments 24
Figure 1.20. Global Imbalances 25
Figure 1.21. Employment and Unemployment 26
Figure 1.22. Drivers of Global Growth and Rebalancing 29
Figure 1.23. Commodity Prices 33
Figure 1.24. World Energy Market Developments 34
Figure 1.25. Developments in Base Metal Markets 38
Figure 1.26. Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops 39
Figure 1.1.1. Trends in Employment and Labor Productivity 42
Figure 1.1.2. Sectoral Trends May Aect Potential Output Growth 44
Figure 1.1.3. Employment, Prots, and Intermediate Goods Trade in the United States 45
Figure 1.2.1. Credit Booms 47
Figure 1.3.1. Predicted Probability of a New Recession in a Quarter 54
Figure 1.4.1. Commodity Market Financialization 57
Figure 1.4.2. Commodity Price Volatility, 1990–2011 57
Figure 1.4.3. Commodity Futures Risk Premiums 59
Figure 1.5.1. Net Foreign Asset Indicators in the Run-up to External Crises 61
Figure 1.5.2. Model Estimate of Crisis Probabilities 64
Figure 2.1. Current Global Growth versus Precrisis Average 71
Figure 2.2. Output Gaps and Ination 72
Figure 2.3. United States and Canada: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 73
Figure 2.4. United States: Struggling to Gain a Foothold 74
Figure 2.5. Europe: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 77
Figure 2.6. Europe: An Uneven Performance and Elevated Risks 79
Figure 2.7. Commonwealth of Independent States: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 81
Figure 2.8. Commonwealth of Independent States: A Gradual Recovery 82
Figure 2.9. Asia: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 84
Figure 2.10. Asia: A Bright Spot in the World Economy 86
Figure 2.11. Latin America and the Caribbean: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 89
Figure 2.12. Latin America: Maintaining the Growth Momentum 90
Figure 2.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 93
Figure 2.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Strength 94
Figure 2.15. Middle East and North Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 97
Figure 2.16. Middle East and North Africa: Weakening Activity in an Uncertain Environment 98
Figure 3.1. World Commodity Prices, 2000–11 102
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SLOWING GROWTH, RISING RISKS
viii International Monetary Fund | September 2011
Figure 3.2. World Commodity Prices, 1957–2011 104
Figure 3.3. Food Price Forecasts 105
Figure 3.4. Pass-through from World Ination to Domestic Ination 106
Figure 3.5. Variability of Real Domestic Prices 108
Figure 3.6. Share of Food in the Consumption Basket 109
Figure 3.7. Contribution of Food and Transportation to Headline Ination 110
Figure 3.8. Response of Ination Expectations to Ination Surprises 111
Figure 3.9. Pass-through from International to Domestic Food Price Ination 112
Figure 3.10. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Emerging and Developing Economy 115
Figure 3.11. Ination-Output Policy Frontier 116
Figure 3.12. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized High-Credibility Emerging
and Developing Economy 117
Figure 3.13. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Advanced Economy 118
Figure 3.14. One-Time versus Persistent Food Price Shocks 119
Figure 3.15. Response to a Food Price Shock amid Current Cyclical Conditions 120
Figure 3.1.1. Income and Food Share in Sub-Saharan Africa 125
Figure 3.1.2. Changes in Ination in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007–08 126
Figure 3.1.3. Rice Price, Madagascar 127
Figure 3.2.1. Net Commodity Exporters, 2000–10 130
Figure 3.2.2. Net Commodity Importers, 2000–10 131
Figure 4.1. Incidence of Action-Based Fiscal Policy Changes by Year 139
Figure 4.2. Eects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 141
Figure 4.3. Eects on Economic Activity of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 142
Figure 4.4. Eects on Saving and Investment of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 143
Figure 4.5. Eects on the Composition of Saving and Investment of a 1 Percent of GDP
Fiscal Consolidation 144
Figure 4.6. Eects on Export and Import Volumes of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 145
Figure 4.7. Eects on Exchange Rates, Prices, and Interest Rates of a 1 Percent of GDP
Fiscal Consolidation 146
Figure 4.8. Eects of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation under Pegged
and Nonpegged Exchange Rate Regimes 147
Figure 4.9. Eects of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation under Constrained Monetary
Policy: GIMF Simulations 148
Figure 4.10. Eects of a Synchronized Global 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation:
GIMF Simulations 149
Figure 4.11. Planned Fiscal Adjustment and the Current Account Impact: GIMF Simulations 150
Figure 4.12. Robustness: Eects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP
Fiscal Consolidation 155
Figure 4.13. Eects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Policy Change 156
Figure 4.14. Fiscal Instruments and eir Eects on the Current Account 158
International Monetary Fund | September 2011 ix
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It
has been assumed that real eective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during July 18–August
15, 2011, except for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are
assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authori-
ties will be maintained (for specic assumptions about scal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box
A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $103.20 a barrel in 2011 and $100.00 a barrel in
2012 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank oered
rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012; that the three-month
euro deposit rate will average 1.3 percent in 2011 and 1.2 percent in 2012; and that the six-month Japanese yen
deposit rate will yield on average 0.5 percent in 2011 and 0.3 percent in 2012. ese are, of course, working hypoth-
eses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event
be involved in the projections. e estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through
early September 2011.
e following conventions are used throughout the World Economic Outlook:
. . . to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
– between years or months (for example, 2010–11 or January–June) to indicate the years or months
covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 2010/11) to indicate a scal or nancial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of
1 percentage point).
Data for Estonia are now included in the aggregates for the euro area and advanced economies.
As in the April 2011 World Economic Outlook, WEO aggregated data exclude Libya for the projection years
due to the uncertain political situation.
Starting with the September 2011 World Economic Outlook, Guyana and Suriname are classied as members
of the South America region and Belize as a member of the Central America region. Previously, they were
members of the Caribbean region.
For Sudan, the projections for 2011 and later exclude South Sudan.
In gures and tables, shaded areas indicate IMF sta projections.
If no source is listed on tables and gures, data are drawn from the WEO database.
When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent gures and totals shown reect rounding.
As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that
is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial
entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteris-
tics or region. Unless otherwise noted, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or
more of the weighted group data.
e boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on
the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorse-
ment or acceptance of such boundaries.
ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS
[...]... 08 400 11: Q1 300 Sources: Haver Analytics; Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; and IMF staff estimates 4This is consistent with evidence on recoveries from financial crises in Chapter 4 of the October 2009 World Economic Outlook International Monetary Fund | September 2011 9 world economic outlook: Slowing growth, riSing riSkS Figure 1.8 Emerging Market Conditions Equity prices in... pushed up sovereign risk premiums for Belgium, Italy, and Spain, and—to a much lesser extent—France (Figure International Monetary Fund | September 2011 1 world economic outlook: Slowing growth, riSing riSkS Table 1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections (Percent change unless noted otherwise) Year over Year Difference from June 2011 WEO Projections 2011 2012 2009 2010 –0.7 –3.7 –3.5 –4.3... factor still points to the upside for output for both 2011 and 2012 Figure 1.15 Risks to the Global Outlook Risks to the outlook remain large, and downside risks dominate upside risks The probability of global growth below 2 percent is appreciably higher than in the April 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Prospects for World GDP Growth1 (percent change) 5In this framework, a steepening yield curve... September 2011 5 world economic outlook: Slowing growth, riSing riSkS Figure 1.4 Prospects for Near-Term Activity The IMF staff’s Growth Tracker points to moderating growth in the very near term, while the Inflation Tracker suggests still elevated price pressure in several emerging market economies This reflects both high commodity prices and rising core inflation Growth Tracker1 Above trend and rising Above... accelerate their pace of deleveraging, by raising their saving rates further Given growing downside risks to U.S activity, the Federal Reserve should stand ready to deploy more unconventional support, and the pace of International Monetary Fund | September 2011 xv world economic outlook: Slowing Growth, Rising Risks fiscal consolidation could become more backloaded provided credible medium-term measures... continue to resist protectionist pressures Just as important, with negotiations on the long-running World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round of trade talks at a pivotal juncture, political leaders need to muster International Monetary Fund | September 2011 xvii world economic outlook: Slowing Growth, Rising Risks the will and high-level attention to devise a credible plan to move the negotiations forward,... Germany; EMA: emerging Asia; EUR: euro area excluding Germany; JPN: Japan; ROW: rest of the world; USA: United States 4 The U.S permanent measures shown in the figure are those planned in the president’s February budget proposal International Monetary Fund | September 2011 13 world economic outlook: Slowing growth, riSing riSkS Figure 1.12 Cyclical Conditions1 Output in major advanced economies has returned... methodology, three point to downside risks for growth and one points to upside risks for 2012 (Figure 1.15, middle panel): • Term spread: There is now a significant risk that the yield curve flattens in 2012, indicating downside risks to growth For 2011, the risks are roughly balanced, as they were in the April 2011 World Economic Outlook. 5 • Oil market: Oil-related risks through 2012 remain to the upside... banks and tight bank lending may have the same effect Weak banks and the potential need for International Monetary Fund | September 2011 xiii world economic outlook: Slowing Growth, Rising Risks more capital lead to more worry about fiscal stability Downside risks are very real I have been focusing so far on advanced economies The reason is that, until now, emerging market economies have been largely... Figure shows bank credit to the private sector 2For Argentina, calculations are based on official GDP and CPI data 3Right scale International Monetary Fund | September 2011 11 world economic outlook: Slowing growth, riSing riSkS Weak sovereign and banking sector balance sheets Figure 1.10 Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced and Emerging Market Economies (Percent unless noted . World Economic Outlook, September 2011
World Economic Outlook
Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
World Economic Outlook
Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
World. Risks
World Economic and Financial Surveys
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
11
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IMF
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
September 2011
Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
International
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