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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. F. Stephen Larrabee Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE Troubled Partnership U.S Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopolitical Change The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2010 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Cover image courtesy of AP Photo/Charles Dharapak. The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Larrabee, F. Stephen. Troubled partnership : U.S.–Turkish relations in an era of global geopolitical change / F. Stephen Larrabee. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4756-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States—Foreign relations—Turkey. 2. Turkey—Foreign relations— United States. 3. National security—United States. 4. National security—Turkey. 5. United States—Military relations—Turkey. 6. Turkey—Military relations— United States. 7. World politics—1989– 8. Geopolitics. 9. Social change. I. Title. E183.8.T8L36 2010 327.730561—dc22 2009042096 iii Preface With the end of the Cold War, many Turks feared that Turkey would lose its strategic signicance in American eyes. ese fears, however, have proven to be unfounded. Rather than decreasing, Turkey’s strate- gic signicance has increased. Turkey stands at the nexus of four geo- graphic areas of growing strategic importance in the post–Cold War era: the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucasus/Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf region. In each of these areas, Turkey’s cooperation is critical for achieving U.S. policy goals. However, in recent years—especially since 2003—U.S Turkish relations have undergone serious strains. Sharp dierences over Iraq and the Kurdish issue have been compounded by dierences over the Middle East, particularly relations with Iran, Iraq, and Syria. At the same time, Turkey has witnessed a sharp rise in anti-American sentiment. 1 is monograph examines the causes of recent strains in the U.S Turkish security partnership and options for reducing these strains. It should be of interest to U.S. policymakers and other U.S. ocials monitoring developments in Turkey and its neighborhood. is research was sponsored by the Director of Operational Plan- ning, Policy and Strategy, Regional Issues Directorate, Oce of the Deputy Chief of Sta, Operations, Plans and Requirements, Headquar- ters United States Air Force (AF/A5XX), and was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part 1 See Transatlantic Trends, Transatlantic Trends: Key Findings 2007, Washington, D.C.: German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2007, p. 21. See also Pew Global Attitudes Project, Global Unease with Major Powers, Pew Research Center, June 27, 2007. iv Troubled Partnership of a scal year 2007 study entitled “Troubled Partnerships: e Grow- ing Challenge of Managing U.S. Security Relationships and Implica- tions for the United States Air Force.” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives aecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ v Contents Preface iii Figures ix Summary xi Acknowledgments xxi Abbreviations xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1 CHAPTER TWO e U.S Turkish Security Partnership in Transition 3 U.S. and Turkish Interests 3 Changing Turkish Perceptions of the Security Partnership 5 e End of the Cold War 6 e Impact of the Gulf War 7 CHAPTER THREE Iraq and the Kurdish Challenge 11 e March 1, 2003, Parliamentary Vote 12 e Resurgence of the PKK 14 Growing Anti-American Sentiment 16 e Ralston Mission 18 e Shift in U.S. Policy 19 Turkish-KRG Relations 21 e Impact of the July 2009 Kurdish Elections 24 e Problem of Kirkuk 25 vi Troubled Partnership e Internal Kurdish Dimension 26 Iraq’s Uncertain Political Evolution 30 CHAPTER FOUR e Broader Middle East 33 U.S Turkish Dierences over Iran and Syria 34 Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions 36 e Impact of the June 2009 Iranian Presidential Election 37 Relations with Syria 39 Lebanon and the Broader Regional Stage 40 Growing Ties to the Gulf Cooperation Council 41 e Israeli Connection 43 Democracy Promotion in the Middle East 45 CHAPTER FIVE Russia and Eurasia 47 e Russian Factor 48 Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement 51 e Armenian Genocide Resolution 55 e Broader Regional Dimension 56 e Energy Dimension 57 CHAPTER SIX e European Dimension 63 e Changing Turkish Domestic Context 64 European Attitudes Toward Turkish Membership 65 Waning Turkish Support for EU Membership 68 Relations with Greece 71 Cyprus 73 e Uncertain Outlook 74 CHAPTER SEVEN U.S Turkish Defense Cooperation 77 Military-to-Military Cooperation 80 Use of Turkish Bases and Facilities 82 Maritime Cooperation in the Black Sea 84 e NATO Connection 85 Contents vii CHAPTER EIGHT e Domestic Context 89 Religion and Identity 89 Kemalism Versus Neo-Ottomanism 91 e Nature of the Kemalist Revolution 93 Modernization, Social Change, and the Rise of Islam 95 e Ideological Transformation of the Islamic Movement 96 Growing Internal Polarization 98 e March 2009 Municipal Elections 101 Tensions with the Military 103 e Impact of the Global Economic Crisis 107 CHAPTER NINE Alternative Turkish Futures 111 A Pro-Western Turkey Integrated into the European Union 111 An “Islamisized” Turkey 113 A Nationalist Turkey 114 Military Intervention 115 CHAPTER TEN Conclusion: Revitalizing the U.S Turkish Relationship 119 Northern Iraq and the PKK 119 e Middle East 121 Eurasia and the Caucasus 122 Turkish Membership in the European Union 123 Turkish-Greek Relations and Cyprus 124 Defense Cooperation 124 Democratization and Domestic Reform 125 Bibliography 127 [...]... Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, (2) the 1990– 1991 Gulf War, and (3) the 2003 U.S invasion of Iraq These three factors have had a profound effect on Turkish security perceptions and on the solidity and strength of the U.S.-Turkish security partnership The End of the Cold War The disappearance of the Soviet threat removed the main rationale behind the U.S.-Turkish security partnership and reduced... element of U.S policy in the Mediterranean and the Middle East since the early 1950s It is even more important today Turkey stands at the nexus of four areas that have become increasingly critical to U.S security since the end of the Cold War: the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucasus/Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf region In all four areas, Turkey’s cooperation is vital for achieving U.S policy goals... been sufficiently compensated for either the support they had given the United States or the economic losses they had incurred as a result of that support On the other hand, the war exacerbated the security challenges on Turkey’s southern border, especially the Kurdish problem, which Turkish officials regarded as an existential threat to the territorial integrity of the Turkish state ... suggest that in the next few years, the United States could witness a new debate on “Who lost Turkey?”2 This monograph explores the sources of these strains and their implications for U.S.-Turkish relations Chapter Two focuses on changes in Turkey’s security environment and their impact on U.S.-Turkish security ties Chapters Three and Four examine the effects of the U.S invasion of Iraq and of Turkey’s... Partnership in Transition Turkey and the United States have been close security partners for more than half a century Their partnership was forged in the early days of the Cold War and shaped by the Soviet threat Stalin’s territorial demands after World War II—including demands for a base on the Straits and border adjustments at Turkey’s expense—were the driving force behind the establishment of a U.S security... as the two sides seek to resolve their political differences (See p 121.) The Middle East U.S policymakers should avoid portraying Turkey as a model for the Middle East The notion of Turkey as a model makes many Turks, especially the secularists and the military, uncomfortable because they feel it pushes Turkey politically closer to the Middle East and weakens Turkey’s Western identity In addition, they... Afghanistan and could complicate the withdrawal of U.S combat troops from Iraq At the same time, Turkey should be encouraged to address more openly the events surrounding the mass deaths of Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman authorities in the final days of the Ottoman Empire Clarification of the events during this tragic period is a prerequisite for a durable and lasting reconciliation with Armenia and. .. important bridge to the Middle East Conversely, rejection of Turkey’s candidacy could provoke an anti-Western backlash, strengthening the forces in Turkey that want to weaken Turkey’s ties to the West Such a development is in the interest of neither the EU nor the United States (See p 123.) However, given the sensitivity of the issue of Turkey’s EU membership among EU member states, the United States... with Turkey The enunciation of the Truman Doctrine on March 12, 1947, led to the expansion of U.S defense ties to Turkey and laid the groundwork for Turkey’s eventual incorporation into NATO in 1952.1 During the Cold War, Turkey served as an important barrier to the expansion of Soviet power into the Mediterranean and the Middle East Ankara also provided important installations for monitoring and verifying... and Turkish Interests The end of the Cold War eliminated the original impetus for the U.S.-Turkish security partnership, but it has not diminished Turkey’s 1 The primary motivation for the enunciation of the Truman Doctrine was the communist threat to Greece Aid to Turkey was a secondary consideration As one witness testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Turkey was slipped into the . PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation. 6 Jump down to document THE ARTS CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION ENERGY. JUSTICE EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SUBSTANCE